|
11589 Posts
Sloosh's inactivity on lynch day and his night posting leave me at a crossroads. I want to kill Palmar for giving zero shits about yesterday at all, but something tells me this is a trap. Obviously no one is going to choose Mocsta in this threesome, so it really comes down to Sloosh/Palmar, and whichever one people believe is more likely to be mafia.
Honestly, after last night I think it's Sloosh. He looked like he was setting himself up for this, which is a weird assumption to make coming off his play yesterday. He says it is because mafia want him dead, and are using this as a potential NK on him, but is this really the case? Obviously one could assume that this is the approach mafia took, but the fact that he set this idea up before the candidates were posted makes me uneasy.
If he's town I want to see it. Right now I don't think either of him or Palmar is town, but when I've thought about these nominations I've come to the conclusion that the most mafia would put up at one time would be one of their members, if at all. Therefor, with the selection of Mocsta as the third candidate, and not someone more ambiguous in alignment like VE or Jay, I believe mafia to have picked the two of them with the express intention of getting one of them killed.
If there is a mafia in the group, I say it has to be Sloosh. I don't think mafia would put up a lurky Palmar already under suspicion for a lynch. I highly doubt that Mocsta is mafia at this point in time. Only Sloosh makes any sense from a mafia perspective at this point in time. It's true that he may be town, as all three certainly could be, but in this case I think our choice is still clear, we kill Sloosh. It's more of a process of elimination in this case, and I will explain at length below.
Mocsta as town, while not known for the accuracy of his reads, is at least easy to read and active, which is more than enough reason to not kill him. Having the towniest people kept alive the longest benefits us in this situation. Eventually mafia will have no choice but to put themselves up against these ultra-town players in nominations, and that will be there undoing. Under no circumstances do I think we should even consider Mocsta as a choice.
Palmar has a history of behaving exactly this way as town. While it makes him difficult to read, and rather useless to us at the present moment, I think with time we will know his alignment. Out of these three players, in this context, I do not think that Palmar is the best lynch out of them. It is certainly possible that he is town, being useless, and mafia put him up here hoping town chooses him and kills him off early before he actually gets rolling. As mafia, I do not think he would be put up here, because of the exact same logic, it would be quite easy for town to lynch him today based on his play yesterday.
Sloosh is therefor the most likely mafia. His contributions to this game have been slim. I can summarize his play in two sentences. Day 1, he pressured me and then backed off. Night 1, he talked about being nominated and gave his speech about how town he'll be today. I do not think a town player would be as sure as he was that he would be nominated today. While I saw the possibility, I also saw other routes mafia could take. Furthermore, why would he, as town, want to make a perfectly good case for why he should be chosen for tomorrow's lynch nominations? I tend to believe this more likely coming from mafia, to set it up in people's heads that mafia is just trying to kill him indirectly because he is supposedly a dangerous town player to be left alive.
My opinion may change today, as it is still early and there are many hours between now and the lynch, but based on what has happened up to this point, I think Sloosh is the most likely mafia.
##Vote: Sloosh
|
11589 Posts
By the way, I did some analysis on the nominations possibilities, and their likelihoods last night that I want to share with town:
First, you have the all-town nominations, something that functions somewhat like an NK, only town chooses between 3 of your picks. Town, if they realize this might be the case, can counterplay by lynching the weakest townie of the group and going from there. It would have to be super transparent and all three people on the block would have to play along, something which is difficult to guarantee.
Then you have some mix of mafia included. The danger with this is obviously that the mafia, or one of the two, has a real chance of dying. The advantage is that people are more likely to think all three are town than they are to believe that any one is mafia, because of this risk. The counterplay to this situation is to simply scumhunt, but the problem is going to be identifying whether mafia picked one if their own or not.
The last, and absolutely least likely possibility is an all-mafia nomination group, where mafia bus one of their own and hope the act gains enough towncred to see them to lylo. Identifying this would be nearly impossible, as you're very unlikely to see three mafia flips before it means enough to catch another, but the risk of sacrificing a member for sure, and the risk of losing a member you didn't want to lose, should be enough to deter them from doing this.
I think the most likely is 2 town 1 mafia. Just enough risk to make it worth it to put yourself on the line, but not enough as to truly hurt mafia's chances of winning if it goes wrong. Best case scenario, town lynches another townie and a mafia gains a little bit of defense of himself. Worst case scenario, you lose the mafia you put up, but you minimized the risk anyway and he wasn't super valuable.
|
11589 Posts
Shut up about prplhz, he's not getting lynched.
You guys don't know how to focus.
|
11589 Posts
On February 09 2013 12:59 Palmar wrote:
None of us are mafia, just random lynch.
Can kill me if you want to.
I think this is the case also, but I think Sloosh is the best choice.
If you live until tomorrow, play the damn game.
|
11589 Posts
Oats, who are you lynching today?
Sloosh?
|
11589 Posts
You should respond to my lengthy analysis where I conclude Sloosh is the best lynch before you go vote for Palmar, bro.
|
11589 Posts
We still have to pick someone who dies today, Sloosh. If we don't talk about it, how are we going to come to a good conclusion? It makes no sense to say we should just ignore the nominees.
|
11589 Posts
Also you seem to think Palmar is actually playing this game, which is obviously not the case.
|
11589 Posts
I suppose that makes sense. I happen to agree with your read on Phagga, so for now I suppose we just wait.
Though, if we're going by your criteria, I fully expect Palmar to die today, which is less than ideal in my mind, as I explained before. You would have been my pick over him but I guess if you're playing and he's not, I'd rather have you live.
##Unvote
|
11589 Posts
|
11589 Posts
That post from Palmar...
Ugh.
Just kill him. Put him out of his misery.
|
11589 Posts
On February 10 2013 05:49 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2013 05:32 yamato77 wrote:
That post from Palmar...
Ugh.
Just kill him. Put him out of his misery. What's wrong with that post, can you explain please?
He's not reading the thread, and he's admitting to being useless. If he's town we aren't losing anything.
|
11589 Posts
And to think I softdefended this guy day 1.
Jesus.
|
11589 Posts
I will say this, I am sitting on my reads today on purpose. You guys know what I think about who dies today, and that's enough for the time being. Tomorrow I'll update all of you on my reads, which have changed some since yesterday, but not significantly. More importantly, I've become more confident in them, and have some more evidence, which I will share at a later date if it hasn't already been covered.
I don't think it's any stretch to say everyone should be on board with killing Palmar today. Sloosh is townier by a mile and Palmar is obviously not even playing the game, so he should just die. If he's town, oh well, someone has to die, and he's admitted to us that he's going to do nothing. If he's mafia then his team is retarded, or he's too cocky for his own good.
One thing I will say today is that I don't think VE is mafia at the moment. Drunk VE was very town last night. <3 drunk VE.
|
11589 Posts
In the middle of those two.
I don't think what people are calling him mafia for right now is very convincing stuff, as I said day 1 about Snarf's case, but I have no vested interest in defending him myself at this point in time. If he's town, he'll do just fine without me interjecting.
It'll be a different deal if nothing changes tomorrow and people start throwing votes his way, however, and I still think he's town. Then you might see me defend him.
|
11589 Posts
I don't think so. After he made his phagga case, he's pressured people for reads and hunted VE, who he thinks is mafia. It's not at all like day 1 where he made his one thing on me then backed off it and AFK'd.
|
11589 Posts
Palmar picked two posts that fit his idea of what makes me look bad, out of my entire filter. If you can read my filter and come to the conclusion that I am mafia, knowing my meta, then I suppose I'm not doing as good a job as I thought this game.
As for what it means about him, I don't know. My reaction is to think he's mafia but it's an emotional reaction that I shouldn't rely on. My reasons for wanting him lynched today have been transparent. I haven't sat on the idea of lynching him in the slightest, my process today has shifted from my earlier decision on Sloosh to my current opinion of Palmar and his commitment to the game. I didn't do this, as he suggests, because other people want to, I did this because I have new information about Sloosh and himself which led me here.
I would be disappointed to find out this was town Palmar, but I suppose it wouldn't be surprising. If that's the case, I guess it was three townies, and I was wrong, but I'll talk more about that and what it means tomorrow.
|
11589 Posts
One heuristic that I find important to mention about the behavior of people around yesterday's lynch is simple activity.
Assume that Sloosh and Mocsta are town. With Palmar's green flip, that means that I was wrong and mafia decided to make the lynch a choice between three town players. They don't care who dies, really, because any of the three is good for them. So mafia are more inclined to not care at all what happens yesterday. They lurk, slap their vote somewhere, and do nothing relevant to the game because there is zero chance of them getting lynched and they have no reason to push a mafia agenda.
So who fits this bill from yesterday? Snarfs, jay, and djo. Djo is the question mark of the three, because he simply didn't post at all. The other two, however, had very similar days and patterns of activity. They both slapped their vote on someone early, and then basically AFK'd. Right now, I think Snarfs is the best lynch because of this behavior and his similar behavior around the lynch day 1 where he didn't vote JX but rather put Hus vote on VE and used his 'case' as an excuse to not comment on the actual lynch. He should die today.
##Vote Snarfs
As for other reads, obviously I think jay is an acceptable alternative lynch candidate. I defended him early day 1 but since then he's done very little, which is more in line with how I view his scum meta. When he's town he at least cares enough to post his thoughts, but this game he's not even doing that anymore and is probably mafia for it.
Phagga is scummy, as others have outlined. I don't see him as red as I do snarfs or jay, but he's on my radar. If I was making a hypothetical scum team, I'd say the fourth might be Oats. In the past day his activity has dropped off a cliff and I don't know what his reads in the game are anymore. He seems to be sticking to his guns from day 1 but has no new information to support his reads and hasn't been very active in the game.
For town reads, Mocsta and Sloosh look really town to me, mostly from their play while under the gun. I'm more confident on Mocsta than Sloosh, but I would defend either one's towniness. VE and prplhz are also both town to me, despite other player's suspicions of them. If I need to defend them today, I will, because neither show scum traits to me at all.
Cheesecake, you asked for my read on you. You lean town to me, but you're real blendy and not at all confrontational like I think town CC is. I suppose you haven't been accused seriously yet, but you also aren't going out of your way to pressure your reads like I think town CC usually does. You're more null than I expected at this point in the game.
If you guys think I'm mafia for serious, come at me, but neither case from yesterday is at all good. I've been the towniest yamato of all time. Bring the cases on.
|
11589 Posts
...
Should I have included the post of jay's where he claims to have no reads? And all the ones he admits that he's just waiting on Palmar to post so he can sheep him?
Yeah...
|
11589 Posts
CC's read switch on me is the scummiest thing I've seen in this thread to date.
Some time today I will defend myself from these erroneous cases but I'm telling you guys, I'm not mafia. Look at my mafia games. I do not play like this as mafia.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
