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Nomination Mafia - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 13 2013 02:41 GMT
#1368
But before that I, the main pusher of the VE wagon, expressed the possibility of switching over. You can see that in my posts with Mr. Cheesecake. I'd argue scum anticipated the possibility of me switching over and so moved their votes. But if you interpret it differently, I can't tell you that you are wrong, since I'm speculating on scum strategy and I can't prove what they are doing.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 13 2013 16:52 GMT
#1403
prplhz is the safest / best lynch for next cycle: you can read his filter and look at his interactions with Snarfs and VE, as well as the total apathy he had concerning the D3 lynch.


phagga is still my top read - observe his vote switch behavior last night:

Currently the votes are split between Snarfs and VE. At this point I'm still strongly voting VE and the only potential hint of my change is this post where I say I'm rereading. So, it looks like slOosh is probably gonna stick with VE. Votes are at 4-4 with prplhz voting CC. phagga comes in and waffles so I question his hesitation:

On February 13 2013 07:39 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2013 07:34 slOosh wrote:
phagga and prplhz, what the heck, how is choosing Snarfs vs VE so difficult for you guys when it is so obvious in your filters that you find indefinitely prefer VE over Snarfs?


Dude, I might do the deciding vote here, I just want to be sure it's the right pick.

That said, snarfs is a lurker, for whatever reason. VE had stuff in his play that just did not make any sense from a town perspective. Let's lynch VE.
Ok. The highlighted line shows that he wants to be sure about this choice. Put some consideration into it y'know?

##Vote: VisceraEyes

On February 13 2013 07:55 phagga wrote:
You know what, fuck it.

##unvote: VisceraEyes
##Vote: Snarfs


let's lynch the scummy lurker.

Well, so much for careful consideration. He calls Snarfs a lurker in the first quote. Somehow in a span of ~15 minutes Snarf's lurking has become scummy and more deserving of a lynch against someone who "had stuff in his play that just did not make any sense from a town perspective." Not only that, it isn't because he reviewed his notes as he explains later - the 2nd quote is straight up YOLO. There's a mismatch in attitude consistency. A "go with the flow" mentality.

And then there is my case from D2 and his subsequent defense.


Should still lynch prplhz first. Then when prplhz flips scum I'll come, point at prplhz's filter and say "aha!" then we can lynch phagga. Can't do that with Snarfs' filter cause he barely mentions him - Coinky dink? Maybe. But add enough of them and the more straightforward answer is that he is scum.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 13 2013 23:14 GMT
#1410
I don't want to lynch phagga solely because I think you are scum prplhz; that is just icing on the cake.

Did you really think the votes were split between 2 scum?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 14 2013 02:30 GMT
#1451
VE do you still </3 me or not?

Everyone should be answering clearly what they think of each nomination candidate as to restrict all potential scum plays for the next cycle.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 14 2013 19:00 GMT
#1564
@Oats, in chronological order of posts:

Town have very good reason to care about how they look. Ver's guide has #1 priority as establishing your innocence. In my last game (dessert mini), I let stuff slide because I figured that town was smart enough to read between the lines. I was wrong, and it aided in my lynch (as a SK but I was playing as a townie). I'm being very clear with my intentions and not letting people (either maliciously or innocently) misconstrue them. That is true for any alignment.

I was sure I'll be put up since I was AFK for the majority of the day, and I perceive myself a decent player. If you (or anyone else) want to consider the "town cred" argument, look at a quote from Ver's guide:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 09 2012 15:49 Incognito wrote:

III. Mafia
Survival v. Pushing Your Agenda

Although the temptation of appearing to be the most “pro-town” player may be great, you often cannot hold this status for long enough as mafia for it to truly benefit you. Town players who gain the “pro-town” status usually are able to hold onto it because their motives are consistent throughout the game. However, as a mafia, the longer the game goes, the harder it will be to keep your story straight, and the easier it will be for you to lose your status. In other words, “town credit” decays over the course of the game. Against a competent town, don’t expect that you can set yourself up for a free win by acting too pro-town early in the game. Many newer players will often erroneously overvalue town credit. In reality, town credit is very fickle and lynches are seldom based solely on someone's town credit.




As for my case, clearly you guys are having an issue with meta. Look - I'll take out the meta part. What do you think of it?

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 09 2013 17:19 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2013 15:19 slOosh wrote:
That said, we don't want to focus the discussion primarily on the candidates tomorrow. Because if three townies go up (probably the case), it is to scum's advantage to focus discussion on them.
1) Because it means attention drawn away from their selves.
2) Gives them ammunition to work off for future lynches.

In any case the discussion should also be driven and moderated and lead by the candidates. You know it's gonna be at least 2 townies, so by following their lead we will have good (town motivated) direction.

It's like you guys don't even read. The worst outcome of today is time wasted by focusing on the nomination candidates. Let me and Palmar take front wheel and scumhunt into the non-nomination pool, of which we would all agree are at least 3 scum. If we are both town, then our interaction should produce a strong scum lynch list. If one of us isn't, then our interaction should reveal whom to lynch today.

Again: D1 information is critical. We can't let scum skate by today pretending to scumhunt by choosing the least towniest of three people, because it is oh so easy for scum to fabricate town reads (no cognitive dissonance and awkwardness of interacting with a teammate naturally). If I sound like I'm repeating myself, it's because some players aren't getting it, and it's letting scum hide.




The low hanging fruit in this game is phagga.


If you familiarize yourself with his meta (nicely displayed in his profile and devoid of any scum games), it becomes clearer that he is new scum whose play pales to his town play.


I've pointed out in my earliest post what I found about phagga to be interesting.
Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 01:21 slOosh wrote:
I found phagga's entry into the game pretty weak (of all the things to talk about he picked out something pretty minor) and his "coaching" of Mocsta very unnatural. What are your thoughts on him?

I pointed it out when I distracted myself by latching onto the yamato thing here, but the tells are pretty valid. He has a focus on lurkers, "contributing" statistics and reasoning. His "coaching" is very awkward, as seen:

Show nested quote +
On February 06 2013 18:09 phagga wrote:
Regarding you, Mocsta, I don't agree with VE that you tried to establish a good town atmosphere. You are writing calm, but some things you posted like

Oats, this game is obviously too much of a step up in difficulty for your current forum-mafia skill level.
Just quit and let someone that knows how to play replace you.


are not helping creating a good town atmosphere. Did you really think Oats would say "oh well, I guess he's right, can I get a replacement GMarshal?"

This subtle stabs have a tendency to poison town atmoshpere much more than the shouting of Oats did, and I did not like this at all. Considering that everything else you posted is barely alignement indicative, I'll be interested to see more from you.

Awkward checklist:
- Talking to Mocsta rather than VE concerning Mocsta's play, over something he disagrees with VE about.
- Stating that Mocsta is writing calmly, but then dismissing everything else by saying it is alignment null, i.e. devoid of content
- Pointing out to the subject himself the problems with his play rather than convincing / discussing with other people.


Compare this to a D1 post (about three quarters into cycle) from Wheel of Fortune Mafia:
On April 23 2012 16:22 phagga wrote:
Mr. Zentor: I don't like how his "really long post" was actually not long at all, but only full of quotes. If we ignore the quotes, the post was quite short. So why announce it as long?
His case on prplhz was weak, and when asked a second time why he thought that prplhz was still scummy, he never answered. His style is unnecessarily aggresive.

VisceraEyes: His Filter shows 5 ingame posts, which is more than I have, but unlike me he is notorious for being very active borderline on spamming, trying to direct people and generally being helpful to town. He is completely lacking these features this game. His townread post is suspicious, I can't remember him making townlists like this in the last games? His behaviour currently reminds of the Bastard game we just were in, where he was SK.

Ace: I don't like how he has basically been talking about game mechanics and shown no interest in hunting scum. However, I've read some games where he was in (last was space station) and I think this is part of his D1 play? Not entirely sure.

Radfield: He would not have shown up in this list was it not for sbrubbles points. I think they are very legit, and I look forward to Radfields reaction.

Very straightforward, gives clear thoughts and explanations, talks to town in general rather than the subjects.


Another contrast is his fear of taking a hard stance, a common tell among newer scum players. Notice how many scum tells phagga is able to point out, and compare that with his final conclusion:

Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 06:26 phagga wrote:
I was rereading your dialogue with Sloosh, and the other post was already big enough.
1: I don't like how you accused him of making an association case (which he was clearly not), and 2: how you tried to dodge his questions. you not wanting to give town reads is not really alignment indicative. 3: You're case on Mocsta is rather weak, the tone of his posts vs Oats is completely different than what you posted from his scum game. 4: Your reaction to sloosh's questions feel over the top. You seem to bark at him for no good reason instead of just trying to answer his questions. It feels partially like someone who just got caught in the act and tries to hide it. Specially the following two posts stick out:

On February 07 2013 03:42 yamato77 wrote:
I said I agree with the general scumminess of phagga, in that he has some of the things I think mafia might do in his play so far.

What I didn't tell you is why I doubt those, and I'm not going to. You've got to do better than equate phagga to Mocsta to prove he's scum.

You're making an association case here, which is incredibly scummy this early in day 1.


and

On February 07 2013 03:45 yamato77 wrote:
Let's talk about why YOU think Phagga is mafia, Sloosh. You've said you think I should because of similarity to Mocsta, but aside from your first post you've done little to justify the read in the way of meaningful analysis from a personal perspective.


5: Afterwards everything else is just you attacking him until prplhz points out to you that it might be beneficial for you to actually answer slooshs question.

The way you explained why you thought I was town actually showed that you have reasons to believe so, and it's not because you'd actually know my alignment, which seems townish. Still, due to your reaction I slightly lean scum on you.

Regarding Sloosh: Nothing I have read so far indicates that he would be scum.


The counterbalance to five points is yamato's town read explanation "which seems townish". There's a clear disconnect here people. phagga's newb scum play is showing: he is afraid of committing to a stance despite being able to list much evidence.


And there are the empty promises he often makes, because he can't make actual reads:

Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 18:55 phagga wrote:
I will read up on Djo and Snarfs at the next possibility and comment on them.
Doesn't do so.

Show nested quote +
On February 08 2013 02:51 phagga wrote:
Snarf I feel unsure about, have to read up fully on his case on VE. I currently think he might be right about VE, so I do not want to lynch him
Doesn't comment on the case at all, and his "grilling of VE" concludes somehow, with this:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2013 09:52 phagga wrote:
- VE is not a good lynch today, i do not agree with prplhz there.


Show nested quote +
On February 09 2013 16:21 phagga wrote:
I have a small post put together with thoughts/questions on some other players before yesterday but did not post it because I did not want to influence nominations. I will not post it right now, as D2 is fresh and the current vote discussion is more important, but I will put it up later (latest beginning of D3).

More excuses not to post reads, because he doesn't have any. For someone who "took my advice" on rereading the thread (seriously why credit me with that), he clearly didn't read anything else I had to say since he is doing the exact opposite.




So, yea that's that. We can start there.

Palmar I want you to comment your thoughts on VE. Also, a fleshed out read on one of Cheesecake, snarfs or prplhz.



As with VE, I thought he was scum and wanted some input from Palmar. You know I'm not just bluffing and getting Palmar to do it for me, because I provide my reasoning (compiled in this post):

+ Show Spoiler +


On February 12 2013 02:27 slOosh wrote:
... You seriously ask me to bump when I have a 2 page filter? Really? You can't do this yourself?

Show nested quote +
On February 10 2013 06:37 slOosh wrote:
Hey Palmar, I think we need to seriously discuss VE today, because I'm seeing some clear mafia agenda here, and little blips elsewhere.

On February 10 2013 02:19 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm going to do a full reread now and look forward to chatting with the nominees about tomorrow's lynch.

On February 10 2013 06:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm not sure I agree where phagga is concerned, but we'll deal with that tomorrow. Today I'd like more input from the lynch candidates and everyone's thoughts on who they want to lynch today.

Says he wants to chat with nominees about tomorrow's lynch. Disagrees about phagga, but wants to talk about it tomorrow.

Could you focus your attention on him when you can? He is one of the more slippery players and it would be great if we could consolidate / clarify our read on him.

Show nested quote +
On February 10 2013 08:23 slOosh wrote:
Ok VE. Say something scummy and then pass it off as a joke, and then call me scummy whilst doing so. That's cool.

I've already stated my case. You said you have problems with it but have provided 0 reasoning, 0 evidence and 0 thought process on why. And then you expect me to extract all relevant information out from you, after stating that you wanted to talk with me.

You're full of it and I'm gonna talk it over with Palmar. Now in the meantime why don't you actually do what you say you would do and talk about why you disagree about phagga.

Show nested quote +
On February 11 2013 06:49 slOosh wrote:
On February 10 2013 22:32 Mocsta wrote:
SlOosh, may I ask who you are planning to lead with on day3?

Not sure if I understand this question - if it is who do I lynch first, it's phagga, because it's the clearest and best chance flip.

I like Palmar's list as it has good overlaps with mine. After phagga, I'd probably start convincing people that VE is scum, then maybe prplhz.

A strong reason for this is that VE and prphlz are objectively experienced / good players and they are focusing on today's lynch and avoiding talking about anything else.

Think about it from a townie perspective. If you conclude that the nomination candidates are all town, then why would you bother spending your time and energies choosing which one to lynch? As if making the correct townie lynch will win the game for us?

No, if you conclude that all nomination candidates are town, you should be focusing on who you will lynch tomorrow. You should scumhunt. 4 out of 8, I repeat 4 out of 8 players are scum if there are three townies up for nomination. And you seriously spend time looking at the three townies? Total bull.

I've been saying this the whole time, and maybe it's more evident now as you've seen how D2 has played out, but there are clearly people who don't want to talk about anything outside the current nomination pool. What's more is that some of these people clearly think that the candidates are all town, so why would they bother waiting for the lynch before they start contributing? If someone thinks we are town, then they must have some degree of respect for Palmar's / my play, or in the very least desire to dialogue with another townie about their scumreads etc. Why wait for one of us to die? Why wait?

Show nested quote +
On February 11 2013 09:05 slOosh wrote:
LOL. Ok, dismiss everything I said by calling it a meta case. Anyone objectively reading the case could see that there is only 1 point in which I draw a meta analysis, which serves to strengthen a point that is already there.

- in this game phagga writes timidly, fluffily and without conclusions
- town phagga is capable of decent analysis, or at least confidence and clarity in his posts

It doesn't matter if phagga is having an off game, because that is not the distinction I make. He scummy this game. You could argue about the use of meta but it's at best moot - take out meta and my case still stands just as strong, and it's incredibly scummy to dismiss the entire thing by strawman argument.

I'm not drawing any associations from my phagga scum read. This is the exact same thing with yamato. Regardless of phagga's actual alignment, townies should act a certain way given what they have said. VE said he wants to talk to me about tomorrow's nominations. I presented my phagga case. VE did nothing at all in lieu of participating / contributing to the discussion, but all he did was say that he disagreed with the case (and didn't say why until I called him out on it).

What VE did is scummy independent of phagga's alignment.




As for the last posts, think of it from my perspective. I missed some posts, got some confirmation bias and tunneled VE hard - the wagon that ran against Snarfs. It was a humbling epiphany. If you think it's overdone, then that's just my character.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 14 2013 19:01 GMT
#1565
@Mocsta, I'll address yamato when I have more time later tonight.

I think all nominees are town.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 14 2013 23:20 GMT
#1569
On February 15 2013 04:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah that looks way too prepared.

Im not saying that you shouldnt look like a townie. Its just that no one SAYS that they want to appear as town. It just happens if you play a certain way. Telling people that you am town, even subtly, is not the way that you look like town.

Look, we are arguing how to play mafia as the basis of you determining my alignment. If you disagree of how a town player should play and that I am not meeting those criteria, there is de facto no defense. I can argue that your standards need tweaking, but that is an argument on how to play, which we can argue to the end of time with no meaningful results, since it is a topic that we can argue about post game as non-players.




I think we should lynch prplhz and phagga. The best criteria for figuring out who is scum or not is figuring out who is scumhunting and who is not (or just pretending).

prplhz has not produced any meaningful content since the first cycle. He is very detached from the game and it is difficult to see any investment in his filter in trying to figure stuff out, or pushing for viable lynches. His cheesecake case came in at a time when the discussion is clearly centered VE vs Snarfs - it is totally detached from the game. Mr CC said that he found this a ballzy to make a case on someone who can't get lynched, but I'd repeat the same sentence with a different emphasis. Scum have plenty to gain by making a case on someone who can't get lynched, because they look like they are scumhunting but the backlash of a townie flip isn't there. You have posts like this where he likes Snarf's case but doesn't have any opinions on Snarfs himself (usually when you like a case someone else makes, you would have some degree of town tell on them wouldn't you?)

On February 08 2013 03:16 prplhz wrote:
I actually like Snarfs case on VisceraEyes.

On February 08 2013 08:28 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2013 08:20 Mocsta wrote:
Hmmm this ve stuff phagga in conjunction with snarfs case isnt looking good for ve.

[...]

You can't mention Snarfs case as reasonable for possibily lynching VisceraEyes when you have said (repeatedly) that it isn't a good case.

I can do that, however, since I've always liked Snarfs case. I don't like the looks of VisceraEyes. I'll lynch him over JieXian.

On February 08 2013 10:01 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2013 09:23 phagga wrote:
prplhz: You wrote twice that you want to lynch jaybrundage, but never voted him. Now you have voted VE without giving reasons. Why is he now the better lynch then jay?

I gave reasons. Snarfs case and your analysis. I don't know if he is a better lynch, but jaybrundage isn't getting lynched at all. I just don't like the JieXian lynch.

On February 10 2013 09:50 prplhz wrote:
I'm still leaning scum on VisceraEyes and I don't really know about Snarfs either.


I haven't bothered making a case because I would think it is painfully obvious by now, and it's disturbing why we haven't a spoken consensus to lynch him tomorrow.


phagga also isn't scumhunting, but it isn't as blindingly obvious as the lurker prplhz. Look at his lines of questioning - they are painfully weak and it's not so much him trying to gather information to make conclusions, but just asking around. The two biggests reads he has had in the game, yamato and VE were dropped when town sentiments were different. He is go-with-the-flow blendy scum.




Mocsta, there are a couple of things I dislike in yamato's recent posts, but not to the degree where I would prioritize him over prplhz / phagga.

Mr. Cheesecake I'll be reviewing jay now - I guess he isn't as apparent to me but that's probably because I haven't given him a good go yet.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 14 2013 23:39 GMT
#1570
@ Mr. Cheesecake

Concerning jay, I think he is town.

For instance, he actually fought against my VE lynch also to push the yamato lynch.
On February 12 2013 03:29 jaybrundage wrote:
SlOosh I agree with your VE case as I noted last cycle. But I believe that Yamato should be the lynch of choice today. He deflected two cases on him with out giving anything of a response. He did the same thing in Normal Mini Mafia VI when i posted an accusation of him. He legit completely ignored it.

SlOosh you haven't given your thoughts on the Yamato case. What do you think about.

On February 12 2013 05:55 jaybrundage wrote:
SlOosh Why would you say that Yamato isn't happening. Its even with VE and Snarfs is leading by one. It's a bit to soon to say which lynch is gonna happen and which one isn't Yamato also has plenty of content to read over. The way he has hard defended some scummy people (prplhz, VE) Will also help to give a better read of these people. I would even say that Yamato would give way more information then VE. Also I think he's scum. Do you disagree with my case at all? Do you think Palmar was mistaken?

Also saying that we are lynching between scum is a big assumption. It makes people care less about the lynch and lets scum get away weak bandwagoning. The biggest part that annoys me is your declaration of Yamato lynch not happening. Why do you say that. If anything Yamato seems like it has quite a bit of resistance.

Also given The votes that are being thrown on Snarf I do not want to lynch him today. The people voting him are the same people Palmar noted as being likely scum.

I also find prplhz's vote on CC to be rather bad hes dividing the vote for no reason. I don't see him


His follow up on yamato is pretty consistent.
On February 12 2013 12:18 jaybrundage wrote:
@Yamato I don't wanna lynch Snarfs. Who's the next person on your list.

On February 12 2013 13:09 jaybrundage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 12:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
Learn to suck it up Jay, people wont always agree with you.

Hell this post is just calling me out for something dumb. And then saying how much you love scum VE. VE has to bus one of his teammates at this point. I bet out of his three scum reads one might be scum. He's doing it so it isn't way to obvious who his scum partners are when he dies.


If you want to say im scum you can go look at my games when im town and i legit straight up sheep palmar.

Its my town meta bro.

So your town meta is sucking at the game. Cool.

So Jay, I am not sure what you mean by 'I can see the bussing going on already'
Care to elaborate with examples?

@Oats This is the shit im talking about. You dont have any content in your posts. You make a snide comment, Insert a question/ask for clarification. While not fucking adding any thoughts of your own.

You also ask the most easily answered questions. You could legit just think about it for a moment and come up with an answer your self but instead you just ask it anyway to appear to be doing something.

Look at my scum team post. See if any of the plays are voting/casting suspicion on each other. Done that's it. Thats bussing.
Example: VE calling prplhz scum. Its not hard to read these things for your self. Your complete lack of your own thoughts this game makes you more and more likely scum.

@Yamato Yea God forbid I actually follow the best scumhunter on TL shame on me. Im sooo bad QQQQQQQQ

Stop trying to discredit my read on you with out actually addressing it. You never responded to Palmar's case either btw.

Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 12:04 yamato77 wrote:
The fact that I'm getting called out for doing "jack shit" is a damn lie.

Stop being a sheep, jay.


Yet again you make me following Palmar's read so bad. Yet why is this bad Yamato. Do you think Palmar is scum trying to push a mislynch on you.

OH WAIT LOL HE'S CONFIRMED TOWN. I forgot about that. Welp why don't you just straight up call Palmar a baddie then and end it there. What happened to your OMGUS im pretty disappointed you dropped it after you figured that lynch with my name on it wouldn't go anywhere.

Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 12:44 yamato77 wrote:
Stop being dumb, jay made no "counter-case". He's just a sheep of Palmar. I am realizing this as I go along. You need to get out of your confirmation bias and do something productive besides argue with people endlessly this game. Your amount of analysis is pathetically low in this post.


You never responded to my post. I don't wanna lynch Snarfs. Who's next on your list.

On February 12 2013 13:23 jaybrundage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 13:14 yamato77 wrote:
I don't care if you don't want to lynch Snarfs. You want to lynch me,1 which means you're an idiot.

Palmar did play bad this game. I have no problem saying that. Just because he flipped town doesn't suddenly mean his reads are 100% correct. I happen to know they aren't.

So what are you doing to do tomorrow when I flip town and mafia puts up three more town players and then it's mylo, huh? Go around sheeping Palmar's reads then? How is that productive for town?

Your case is just an extension of his, which I already addressed. I've addressed all of the main points I could find against me. If you don't believe me, 2 I don't care, because right now I really don't even want to play in this game. People aren't even reading my posts.

1 Hey last game I was scum I used attacks on Bugs to rile him up and make him not think clearly. Nicely done.

2 Stop using emotional bullshit to try to pull out a response from people.

Also you refuse to find a second candidate. WTF is this? If your town then start looking. Snarfs is not gonna be killed today.
I have said this like three times and you refuse to answer.

WHAT'S YOUR SECOND SCUM READ


With respects to Palmar, I think he just really respects Palmar and respects his reads (Student Mafia if anyone remembers was a game where Palmar smurfed and caught jay and his 3 man scum team day 1.) Not too much of a stretch to think this could be townie holding Palmar reads in high regard.

Posts like this I really like - I don't think we should lynch him before prplhz and phagga.
On February 14 2013 15:34 jaybrundage wrote:
Also I would also try to focus the lynch on tmw. If there are actually three townies on the board then we waste time talking about who we want to lynch. Scum can get away with talking about whos the scummiest of the three townies.

What we should do is simply pressure our actually scum reads and not whos on the block.

Yamato, VE what are your thoughts on Phagga and Prplhz?

slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 15 2013 01:30 GMT
#1572
You're putting words in my mouth there prplhz.

It's not the presence of your CC case that I have issue with but the lack of any meaningful insight into the current issue at hand that everyone was trying to figure out. I also never said that you didn't believe that CC could be lynched, I said that just because someone makes a case on someone who isn't likely to be lynched isn't that useful of a heuristic.

In any case you clearly seem to have opinions / reads but don't seem to want to share /expound any of them.
I'm willing to listen prplhz - who should we lynch tomorrow?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 15 2013 04:57 GMT
#1584
Alright, Friday / weekends tend to escape me (a la last week) so I want to do this just in case I can't make it until deadline.

I think all the nominees are town. I really do. I'll be defending whoever is alive out of us for tomorrow unless there is a reasonable body of evidence. And no, "that would be a sick scum play" is not a good reason, because possibility =/= reality. If it is what people are speculating it is, there should be evidence for it beyond "these things fit in nicely", because "they are actually town, you are being paranoid and scum is elsewhere" fits just as well, if not better. So less speculating, more research, more evidence, more cases.

That said, as much as it sucks, I'm going to vote off Mocsta again. It sucks because he is putting in lots of effort etc. I'm voting him because if he is alive tomorrow, I find him to be a highly potential mislynch candidate (much more so than Mr. Cheesecake), so it's better to "use him up" during these even cycles when a townie has to die.

##Vote: Mocsta

prplhz, could I have a bit more detailed explanation on your townish read on phagga?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 15 2013 23:59 GMT
#1617
Quick check in post.

Mocsta, I think all three nominees are town. The best we can make out of a 3 townie situation is remove as many mislynch possibilities as possible. From my perspective, seems real easy that scum could use CC flipping town to push your mislynch, or just keep you to push this paranoia case. If you think phagga is responsible for hammering Snarfs then I think you should reread the relevant pages.

This is stupid guys. Lynch prplhz. All this talk day 1 about lynching lurkers and here is one on a silver platter, and you guys think "oh that is too easy let's go lynch someone more difficult to find". Seriously. It's not like he is even promising any content this is so stupid.

If I end up dying, my scumreads are clear. Prplhz and phagga. Maybe yamato /debears after that.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 17 2013 04:09 GMT
#1664
Sorry VE if it felt like I was ignored your case - I thought Mocsta was paranoid townie and was voting him anyways so I didn't see a point to defend him. If it is disturbing that I'm buddying you hard, then worst case scenario is you get to control a scum vote right? Then once I bus all my buddies you can come after me if I got nothing left.

Like I've been saying forever, I think prplhz and phagga are scum. Let's do some consolidating.

p.s. VE you have my full attention to whatever you want my thoughts on. My activity drops on weekends but with time I have we can work on really getting fleshed out reads between us and CC for the future lynches, cause at least 2 can stick around till endgame (due to nomination system).

##Vote: prplhz
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 17 2013 07:39 GMT
#1690
>.> Oats, what is mega useful look like in your mind?

Keep it simple - the most straightforward explanation is usually the correct one. It's more likely that CC / VE are town who caught scum Snarfs, and not some elaborate day 1 bus strategy, and that prplhz is just lurker scum skating by and not a super busy town player who lost all will to play and isn't even making proper reads.

No one has made an honest effort case on CC or VE post Snarfs flip - if your fear that they are scum are well founded and not just natural paranoia that comes in a game of mafia, then there should be evidence to support that. No one has provided such evidence so either they are amazing scum players who don't slip (especially when acting with regards to each other and 1 more scum member) OR, they are town, plain and simple.

Like ... the only useful discussion is ultimately, who should we lynch? I think it should be prplhz or phagga, and I've outlined why. If you build a serious case on VE / CC that people start wagoning, I'll build a serious defense, but there's no point in preemptively doing that for me - in fact it's probably detrimental as it detracts from scumhunting. If you want a couple of reasons on why I think they are town I can give that too, but it isn't useful for lynching mafia a la prplhz or phagga.


@jay - it is kinda weird that out of prplhz phagga and debears you choose debears.
Why you do that?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 18 2013 01:03 GMT
#1722
@Oats, so far (in my knowledge for 1st time, my town read on CC the 2nd) mafia has been putting up 3 townies. So every other cycle we don't have the pressure of the lynch - different scenarios => different playstyles. That said I'll be putting effort looking into jay, and VE with phagga so you can look forward to that.

@VE. If lazy play is a better alternative to his active play, then that is a legitimate way to play scum. Like, if I could pass off lazy scum play I would, because I find it really difficult to play active scum in imitation of my town play. I've definitely considered the possibility of lazy town prplhz, but I'm finding it more akin to scum sandroba or Foolishness - people's whose town play greatly overpower their scum play, so they just lurk about. Besides, he has done a good job cutting ties everywhere he goes in his filter.

Consider this following post - he ain't got nothing, and even with threat of lynch he ain't got nothing, so we know that if kept alive he will produce nothing this game. Keep it simple - he is super duper lazy / disinterested / disheartened town, or he is scum pretending to be the former. I think he is scum.
On February 15 2013 11:18 prplhz wrote:
I don't really want to lynch Oatsmaster, Mocsta, Djodref, you, probably not yamato or jaybrundage or phagga. Guess that leaves me with VisceraEyes and Mr. Cheesecake but for some reason that doesn't seem all too right for a scum team. I mean there's one guy missing then.


I'll be spending time on jay to give a more holistic appraisal now. I made a brief comment about him here detailing why I thought he was town / someone who I didn't consider for today's lynch. I also think because of his relation with (I think scum) prplhz from D1 that it is the case, and I am guessing you are thinking potentially the reverse because of it (jay is scum ergo, prplhz is more likely to be town).

In any case I'll be going through the cases against him this upcoming cycle (won't have time to do so before deadline), and hopefully by then we can make an endgame lynch list.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 18 2013 01:16 GMT
#1726
What is this votes on D2 you speak of?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 19 2013 06:37 GMT
#1756
Ok - I don't know about you guys but I didn't realize the perseverance a 72hr cycle entailed. So I figured out the easier way out which is to do it by process of elimination.

So I have a strong town read on CC and VE. With me we have 3 people, 2 of which I would like to indiscriminately keep till the endgame (I don't care if it means I get lynched if all 3 of us go up, doesn't change the plan). We hit scum tomorrow, and we lynch whoever isn't in the trio (or the more likely case we lynch me since the trio is nominated) and then scum the next day. In the meantime, scum will continue to put townies up, because they know putting themselves up will be suicide, according to this plan. Thereby, we eliminate 2 null reads during the even cycles (well it will be the most towniest outside of the trio but whatever).

To be honest I still haven't had a chance to look at jay, but it seems like I'm in the wrong, especially since prplhz flipping town means there's one more scum in the playerlist and that the early interaction with jay is more how VE perceived it, not I. I still want to give it an honest go, but it will probably come tomorrow. Not liking his latest post for the unheeded slight at VE and narrowing of CC / yamato without contribution, nor how he voted debears instead of prplhz given that Palmar thought prplhz was scum - but there is a good chance I'm just trusting the objective reads from VE and CC, so gotta wait for the final verdict.

Phagga I've had scum read forever, and I think by this point I've lost the ability to objectively read him without calling him scum at every turn, so I can't really discuss him that well. I just don't think he is scumhunting at all - just popping him to defend himself and ask inane questions, and making up scum reads off the cases of others without any initial contribution.

Also I think yamato is town because it would be suicidal to put up someone against my and CC who have very strong town reads on each other (plus behavioral analysis etc.). I also think that scum will never put one of their own up, given my plan will insta lynch whoever isn't in the trio, and that scum won't gambit the one surefire means of eliminating townies for the fickle chance of "town cred".


So if I did my planning right, yamato will die today, we lynch phagga / jay, next cycle I can die on behalf of trio, then we lynch the remainder of phagga / jay, then we lynch the remainder of the player pool (it will be VE, CC 1 town 1 scum at this point), lynch the 3rd player nominated and the remainder afterward, and win the longest game ever played of all time.

Plan works if you believe VE and CC town, phagga jay is scum. It circumvents need to decipher through debears / Oats & yamato. Given that the only things mounted against VE / CC are paranoid scum bus theories (I think a phagga flip would show how it wasn't a coordinated scum bus, unless you want to argue that was intentional at which point you are scum for trying to stretch the truth that far), and good consensus that phagga and jay are scum, I think this is the way to go.

Cool. So discussion on if you think phagga / jay is town and if so, who is scummier than they, or an actual case on why VE / CC is scum, or feedback on my plan.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2013 06:08 GMT
#1799
Without looking, can you tell me what phagga's town reads / scum reads are?
The answer is, probably not (even if I check his filter it's kinda hard).

@Oats
- Snarfs also defended a Palmar lynch D1,
- As scum you also fear going against the flow. Aka, his backing off of VE and yamato cases when they weren't getting support.
- The posts you quote are almost a week old. What new content has he produced? Does it look like he has any scum reads, or does it look like he is making them as he goes along?

In the process of a full reread (yes another one). Will post up huge thoughts hopefully within a couple hours time.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2013 06:22 GMT
#1801
I love it. I've been rereading and started with D1 of course, keeping in mind who really wants Snarfs dead and who is the pretender. Here are some bullet point notes I wrote down as I've been rereading (bolded are things you pointed out):

- VE calls out scum Snarfs but doesn't push the lynch over Palmar's
- Oats joins along Snarfs lynch
- jay notices phagga missing. wants more info on Snarfs
- VE's initial list is palmar, prplhz, snarfs, JX. pushes prplhz for lurking
- Phagga said he would talk on Snarfs. Didn't.
- Oats switched back onto Snarfs

And that's up to page 30. What I've gotten so far is that if anyone is to get "town cred" for pushing Snarfs, it would be Oats, not VE (aside from CC of course, look at his entry post calling out phagga Snarfs Djo he is baws).

I recall from D2 him completely dismissing my phagga case by misconstruing it as meta, and his most recent posts where he once again shirks any responsibility for scumhunting, and seems more concerned in lynching "the least contributory townie" instead of finding and lynching scum. Right now by process of elimination coupled with some posts of his (like his "I think prplhz might be town" post out of nowhere) lead me to think he is indeed mafia.

I'll be reading more and updating as I go along.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2013 07:47 GMT
#1812
Finished rereading.
On February 20 2013 06:50 jaybrundage wrote:
New improved scum team (with help from CC)
VE, Phagga, Debears, Snarfs

We lynch systematically into them. And win the game.


I fully endorse this position and will be willing to vote into any one of these 3 players.

So town team of me, CC, yamato, Oats & jay - so at this point it's just convincing you guys that we are town and have to consolidate on them. If me flipping town today helps Oats see better, than I'm fine with that.




Oats: I'm going to do this two ways. One is why I'm probably town, and one is why VE is probably scum.
D1: I am voted with Mocsta and Palmar. Mocsta is pretty much established town. Palmar has a great reputation as a town player. Why would I put myself up as scum? How could I have known that Palmar would be sick all day? Because if Palmar chose to start contributing, then I would surely be dead.

With yamato's case, the issue at hand is that VE is claiming that he is town because of his pushing Snarfs, when in reality, he wasn't really pushing Snarfs, but just pretending to do so. That is what yamato is pointing out. Pushing town over scum isn't the point - pushing town over scum while claiming to be pushing the scum the whole time as justification of his towniness is the issue.

If you consequently observe VE's filter, there are 3 things that categorize his play.
1) Setup talk, which is an easy way for scum to look like they are contributing
2) Focus on lurkers, which is an easy way for scum to look like they are contributing
3) Hunting the "least useful" townie on even days, which is an easy way for scum to look like they are contributing

When does VE try to push a scum lynch? You may think Snarfs, but as yamato shows, he really doesn't. VE has been pushing lurkers and least useful townies and that is all that he is interested in. He isn't truly scumhunting.

slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2013 07:56 GMT
#1815
Also if you haven't done so, really try to do a reread with the flip knowledge. I think much of our confusion stems from the natural thought that D2 wasn't split between 2 scum (Snarfs and VE). Things I caught were
- jay, phagga and CC build yamato case
- yamato serious lynch possibility. what are VE / phagga / Snarfs doing?
- p 58~61: who cares about the lynch, who doesn't?
- phagga acknowledges Snarfs case, keeps on yamato, and then soon after drops it when no one else is on it
- phagga unvotes, but not to move it!!! There is unusual delay in his followup vote.

I really think jay is town at this point. He has been consistently involved in trying to figure out scum. He was one of the first to support the VE lynch and his posts surrounding the deadline felt really genuine (like the one where he was really upset I moved my vote). The biggest thing is that he came to the same conclusion of a scum team that I did before I clearly said anything. It shows real consistency. I highly don't recommend lynching him.
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