TL Mafia LIX - Page 22

On January 30 2013 01:31 Toadesstern wrote:

that could be a mafiaploy! Don't make it a townread on stutters please :p

On January 30 2013 01:26 Stutters695 wrote:
This is pure WIFOM but the only thing that gives me pause about an annul lynch is how obviously of a bad play it was for scum if he knew BKE would flip town. He pretty much asked us to keep scum at 2kp another night without suggesting a solid case for the double lynch. Surely he'd know how bad that would bite him in the ass as soon as the flip happened?

But his lack of truly explaining why he kept his bomb on chez and the convenience of his claim from a scum perspective (no way to verify other than role cop) doesn't look good. Additionally the whole mason thing with Mocsta didn't sit right with me. At the time it was hard to explain since he just abruptly stopped talking to Mocsta so he wouldn't potentially get framed. That's all well and good, but why wouldn't he push him after. He said another Mason was scum, voted Mocsta (mason) and tried to save Chez (confirmed scum mason). These are an awful lot of coincidences in addition to not being a very town player in general.

On January 30 2013 01:40 Toadesstern wrote:
can't call me stupid anymore after this game. We do think alike after all.

I mean for all I care you can still call me stupid every now and then but I'll do the "stop hitting yourself" and link to this game / to this post :3

On January 30 2013 01:55 annul wrote:
snore.

i did not use my role in a bad way. my role usage is perfectly fine. if i have ANY bad marks on my play, it's not recognizing that the BKE got lynched without a single defender... it was way too easy and i should have picked up on the fact that he had not even one player at his back for the lynch, and thus may not be mafia. but this bad mark is on the entire town, not just me.

assuming BKE was mafia, like 100% of the players here did (i may have missed a defender, but i doubt it), then there is literally no reason at all to have killed chez yesterday. none. mafia KP remains at 1 and chez does not hold any town powers, he isn't trusted, he's essentially already dead, just with a voice and one vote. that's it.

On January 30 2013 02:04 Vivax wrote:




Never forget.

On January 30 2013 02:14 Vivax wrote:
Why are we even arguing about this again? What has this even to do with you picking Chez over anyone else?

Are you trying to say that scum would try to sway off votes from BKE in your world? And how is that even related to you picking Chez? How did you know before the night ended that people would be sure that BKE was mafia afterwards since that seems to be your reasoning for picking Chez?

On January 30 2013 02:50 Vivax wrote:
Come on, it's clear annul just dug himself into a hole by trying to argue with something that isn't even related to the accusation.

He knew all the things he's guilty of, and one of them is calling BKE scum. That's why he's justifying for doing that when literally all of town was sure about BKE.

Forget axle, let's annul annul

On January 30 2013 03:09 Vivax wrote:
Meh, whatever.

He and austin are far better lynches than Axle in my opinion.

As far as I'm understanding Toad he thinks Axle is scum cause he talked like he's a medic but didn't claim in the mason chat.
Well, he could have claimed saying that he tried to save someone if he was mafia, so I don't see the point Toad sees.

The Chez and gonzaw support can be said for grush and debears as well, I'm sure debears supported Chez initially, not sure about gonzaw, would have to look but I checked him anyway.

On January 30 2013 03:37 annul wrote:


he flipped blue

On January 30 2013 07:35 annul wrote:
i like how people are voting double lynch and yet they have trouble even agreeing on the first target

i still like yamato for reasons i indicated the last time i called him out

On January 30 2013 08:26 annul wrote:
i admit it is unlikely under normal balancing theories but this game is far from balanced

On January 30 2013 08:40 annul wrote:
yeah, mafia have to achieve one less mislynch, so they get a jack, gf, at least 2 masons, and probably an rb and framer, right?

On January 30 2013 14:22 mkfuba07 wrote:
Annul
So there are two scenarios, either Annul told the truth and he’s town, or he lied and he’s scum. We’re actually somewhat fortunate in that his alignment comes down to a single decision in the game. I feel a lot of confusion in the thread regarding what he says he did. This is his explanation, as I believe many/some people understand it:

1. N2 he believed it was clear that BKE and Chezinu would flip scum
   
2. He decided to place his bomb on Chezinu, in case he was shot that night, stalling Chezinu’s lynch so we could lynch BKE (believed to be 99% scum by most) and some other suspicious individual

Now is this the work of town annul, or scum annul? Let’s start with scum.
What does scum Annul know?
He knows Chezinu is scum, and BKE is town. He knows he is not actually a Mad Hatter, and can only appear as one a maximum of one time (if the final scum is the framer). He also knows that he breadcrumbed Mad Hatter from the beginning of the game for some reason.
Who would he choose to “bomb”?
Chezinu, of course.
What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)?
Given that he knows BKE is town, he knows that town is likely headed for a mislynch D3. Probably two, if he is able to switch people off of Chez. He knows he will look quite suspicious if he succeeds in his ploy. He would be in much the same position he is now. So many people were sure of Chez’s scumminess that, having saved him the previous day and leading town to two mislynches, Annul would be right up there with him. They would have one more KP that night, but they would likely sacrifice both their lives. If he failed, what has happened, happens. It becomes known that he tried to save (likely) scum. He has, at most, one night of safety from DT checks. He has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself, and has earned nothing from it.

Now let’s look at town Annul.
What does town Annul know?
He knows he is Mad Hatter. He knows that he finds BKE and Chezinu both to be incredibly likely scum.
Who would he choose to bomb?
Doesn’t matter, because town Annul thinks they’re both scum.
What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)?
If he fails, he loses his bomb, and two scum flip (oops). Town might be suspicious of him because of it, but nowhere near as much as we were today due to the BKE flip (oops). But if he succeeds, then he's given town the opportunity to lynch an additional person D3. Whether or not the second person is scum, the KP would still be reduced to 1 permanently because we were still lynching BKE (oops). In addition, town has effectively taken Chezinu hostage, guaranteeing annul's survival as long as Chezinu is alive. That would be 3 guaranteed townies who couldn't be NK'd (FT, toad, and annul) and one "free" scum, leaving us in that 0.000001% situation annul mentioned when he claimed.

You will note that all three times I wrote (oops) were times his assumption of BKE flipping scum screwed him over. This perfectly explains why he says his only mistake was BKE.

I don't believe that scum annul would risk his own life to save Chezinu given what he would have known. The pros don't outweigh the cons, as he looks suspicious either way. The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway. Add to that other small things, like the fact that he breadcrumbed his role, and that he could have gotten gonzaw elected but kept his vote on himself, and I think it's pretty conclusive.

So, the way I understand the situation is more like this:

1. He asked for the towniest scumreads he could find (those of toad, FT, DS, and oats)
   
2. He agreed with them that BKE and Chez would flip scum
   
3. He placed his bomb on Chezinu because he was sure they were both scum. Even if the lynch gained from annul's bomb was a mislynch, one questionable townie was taken off the list, and BKE was a pretty sure thing (oops). In any case, that day's lynch would still leave them at 1-2 scum remaining, eliminating one of the KP for sure (oops).
   
4. Because annul's bomb was on Chezinu, we would have had another guaranteed townie, who would have been unable to die unless scum wanted to take Chezinu down with him.

On January 30 2013 01:45 FiveTouch wrote:


There's not that much to say about it because it's essentially correct. I still think he might be town, but I'll feel exceptionally dumb if he turns out to be mafia. It's like he's actively sabotaging himself and I don't understand the mafia motivation for doing so. The whole mad hatter thing drew massive amounts of attention to himself. Was it really worth it for possibly having one extra KP, when even this wasn't likely at all? Why make the play at all? It makes me tentatively lean on townie doing some really fucking stupid things instead.

On January 28 2013 01:25 FiveTouch wrote:
Because no-one is confirmed red until they flip. Not prplhz, not gonzaw, not BKE, and not Chezinu.

On January 30 2013 01:57 FiveTouch wrote:


This is precisely why I told you no-one is confirmed red until they flip. We must lynch our strongest scumreads, because we need to know what they flip for certain. That's why we had to lynch Chezinu, it's really obvious.

As for the BKE lynch, do you really think the other two mafia would stick their neck out to defend him? That's an absurd notion.

On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:

we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards.

Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p

On January 30 2013 22:28 Toadesstern wrote:

Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax.

We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that.

On January 30 2013 23:06 Toadesstern wrote:

with you being dead we can't use the doublelynch anymore, can't we?
Give them a straw they can hold on to, just to crush them afterwards :3

I mean whatever, doesn't make that much of a difference. Don't think mafia will just ignore us anyways.