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cakepie
985 Posts
Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3. You've already used up your quota of noob allowance this game. I will not allow you to continue playing like this. It is anti-town. Even if you are VT, this does not help the rest of town figure out D3, and certainly does not help us if we do get to D4. BRB once I grab a sammich. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 02:19 cDgCorazon wrote: Fine Cake, I shall rephrase. He's trying to convince us he is not scum with an argument that, to me, does not compute. How could I possibly vote for Sn0 over him? You completely miss the point. Here's my biggest beef with you: On February 03 2013 02:05 cakepie wrote: Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3. Like these things, yah?: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 16:48 cakepie wrote: Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town). Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO. + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision. On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: Guys, I want to emphasize that we cannot simply play today based solely on the reasoning that: "I strongly believe Sno's cop claim and his green checks, therefore we've already solved this game easily". Over reliance on blue powers, and thus slacking off on your own scumhunting, is a poor way to play and will not help you improve. [...] @ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest. [...] Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement: That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim. On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote: We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from [Sn0's] perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot. All you've given is this bloody weak sauce: + Show Spoiler + Even Sn0 told you this was bad and wrong. And: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2013 16:11 cDgCorazon wrote: Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop. I'm going to vote for Glurio because of all the arguments above (voting history, activity level) and the fact that his arguments aren't good enough to convince me that Sn0 is town (the emotional "Sn0scum" BS is ridiculously suspicious as well). ##Vote: Glurio A scum flip on Glurio would basically confirm everything about Sn0 and all of the webs interlinking with that (I'll save association cases for after the lynch). [...] this is basically locking in my vote. You won't get a chance to do D4 association cases if we mess up and mislynch today. A town flip on Glurio would basically end the game in a loss for town. You haven't demonstrated enough due diligence with your D3 decision yet. In fact, you're coming dangerously close to looking like: On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
@ Cora: My requests were clear: - "do not rely too much on the basis of the cop check information" and "scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim." -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17697504 - scumhunt in order to " find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence [in whatever lynch target]" -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17697668 - "[demonstrate] due diligence with your D3 decision" -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17703141 Emotional brinkmanship is not going to help you convince anyone of anything. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 03:49 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm going to play the fucking game the way I want to Right back atcha. Acid, are you still around? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
If I take the easy option, and simply believe Sn0, then obviously the scumteam is glurio and slayalot. However, if I don't believe Sn0, then he is clearly scum, and anyone else could be his scumbuddy. Corazon is the foremost candidate for that position, by the sheer amount of saving one another that went on between them. ----- The problem with a glurio + slayalot scumteam is that the case for that is hilariously weak. Here's what I said earlier in D3: On February 01 2013 11:40 cakepie wrote: I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads. ##Vote: Slayalot ##FoS: glurio Reason: as well as voting patterns The funny thing is, this was the truth: my strongest scumreads rely on a bunch of lousy voting patterns and handwavy judgement of playstyle. That's really only slightly scummy. Acid nailed it on the head: On February 03 2013 02:37 Acid~ wrote: There's not enough activity from glurio to make a case. Bottom line is, I think glurio's activity is consistent with a lazy townie. It's also consistent with scum. Only a good faith belief in Sn0's cop claim can provide (conditional) strong support to the case -- conditional, because it depends on if you believe Sn0. I did mention that initially leaned towards: On February 01 2013 10:00 cakepie wrote: Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But I also left open this possibility: On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: it is not 100% unassailable, And I have been doing my due diligence to go back in the thread to re-test my own belief that Sn0's cop claim is unsafe for scum, and is "too complicated" under occam's razor. Meanwhile, I've also been exhorting others to try to scumhunt further instead of relying on a set of claims alone. There are cases to be made -- but no one actually tried hard enough. Glurio made a half-assed attempt, and that's pretty much it. I left an opening for people to actually play, but it didn't happen. - Slayalot is not even a player at this point. - Glurio put in some weak sauce, and left to go party. - Sn0 won't do anything except bank on his cop claim. - Cora doesn't want to play along, just wanted to bank everything on Sn0, and then goes into martyrdom brinkmanship mode. - Acid is too frustrated to care any more. - FUCKING SHIT-FLINGING FEST ENSUES Now it is clear to me that if you want things done right, you'll have to do it yourself. Sn0 + Cora scumteam hypothesis narrative coming up, next post. Still drafting. Because I will leave no stone unturned. Sn0's claim is indeed everything that will swing this game one way or the other, and I am determined to weigh both possibilities carefully before we settle this. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 06:16 Acid~ wrote: First I want to see who/if I can get behind on a Cora lynch. Your best bet would be me, because sn0 won't do it, and we have no idea what is up with the other two. It won't work without at least one of them if cora unvotes himself. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
This is what things look like to me through a Sn0+Cora scumteam hypothesis goggles. ========== Day 1 corazon fluff about confirmation bias and meta, and then listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17636349 brief warbaby vs acid happens. Sn0 asserts his belief that both warbaby and acid are trying to take control of town, rather than actually scumhunting http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17641802 warbaby vs Sn0 happens. corazon makes some useless side comments http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17639117 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642031 and goes back to just listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642563 and calling out the penis contest http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17643306 Sn0 votes, and leaves http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17646502 His second vote on SkaPunk makes the wagon credible and enables others to wagon on. Both scum and silly townie sheep can easily bandwagon. zare actually sounds like a voice of reason amidst the whole mess http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17644643 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17648807 Night 1 Sn0 soft busses Cora on setup details. Zare makes a case on Cora without relying on the setup error: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17653902 Glurio and and slayalot both cast some WIFOM suspicion toward warbaby. There is some bollocks going on about warbaby looks scummy by association with mocsta meta -- complete bollocks, I am amazed how that was even admissible to anyone. Zare actually speaks sense here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17655668 But Acid makes a late night case against warbaby. What would a Sn0+Cora scumteam do here? glurio and slayalot aren't very active or useful, they are not a threat, and can be manipulated. Acid could be painted as going apeshit all over warbaby, plus he was gone for a good chunk and did not vote. safe to keep around. AFK (later replaced by myself late in N1) was an unknown factor, could be left for later. Zare makes reasonable, sensible arguments. Warbaby also demonstrated that he is a highly active player who will engage and spar with anyone. Kill Zare. He is able to remain calm, and use sound reason. Why not warbaby? because Warbaby looks more likely to be influenceable, and it looks possible to drive a mislynch on him. Role Check Warbaby might have happened or not. Not too important. ========== Day 2 The nightkill fails. Was Zare saved by a doc, or saved by a JK? The day opens with warbaby vs acid. Corazon tries to sound reasonable, but then FoS into warbaby for continued tunnelling When warbaby tries to post reason for others, corazon paints it with emotional appeal: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658510 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658553 Sn0 is the first with the setup speculation: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17662395 warbaby's post here is telling in hindsight: On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote: I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town. Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it). If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful. If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town? I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims. "I made a lucky save. Does it make sense for me to make a claim?" If scumteam realized this, they would have suspected warbaby to be doc. (Or they might have already had a rolecop check) Warbaby makes a side comment about not believing in clairvoyance. Scumteam could read this as a confirmation that "I did not see clearly, I just made a lucky save" Sn0 latches on to the comment on clairvoyance as justification for his vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17663135 This is complete bullshit, of course. Zare convinces warbaby with calm reason to try making other cases. You can see why he would comply, since he had zare confirmed town. I appear and mention the fact that JK blocks result in a notification. This is news to Sn0. Scumteam now knows that they were not blocked by JK. He figures out the implications: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665292 As Acid makes his reappearance, Corazon comes in to offer a polar choice: Lynch either WB or Acid. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665711 At 26 hours to go, he just wants to mislynch either of the guys who are actively prying around. It is convenient that they tunnel one another. Continuing lack of JK claim or roleblocked claims increases confidence of scumteam that they know the setup http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665775 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665787 Acid vs Corazon happens. There is a lot of WIFOM. Zare starts casting some real suspicions against Corazon, backed by a strong read of hypocrisy from Corazon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673093 Sn0 rushes to dismiss the possibility of a Corazon wagon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673269 Zare also posts a case on warbaby. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673310 Sn0 likes this case much better! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673365 At the same time there is some suspicion cast lightly toward Zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673448 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17674187 Warbaby falls back to a lurker lynch. Gets goaded into making a very ill-advised softclaim. Sn0 presses him for a hard claim. Scum wants blue to out! Unfortunately there is no way out of it. Acid and zare are also pressing for the claim. Glurio's vote adds pressure since he actually looks like might get lynched. Warbay claims at January 31 2013 06:04. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. Corazon refuses to move onto warbaby. He needs to stay off the wagon for now http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676374 Sn0 backs him up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676429 But then there is actually some momentum toward a Corazon wagon. As momentum builds, Sn0 tries to save Cora again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676827 It gets to: warbaby (3): Corazon (3): Acid, zarepath, warbaby Corazon shits his pants. There are 8 players, he NEEDS to vote warbaby to bring it to 4, because he has no way of knowing what I would do. Acid points out that Sn0 has been crumbing Cora: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17677383 Except, Acid, those are not breadcrumbs at all. It is only a crumb if Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate that he intended to check Cora. This is what real crumbs look like: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=73#1460 What happens is that this presents an opening to Sn0 Cora scumteam -- they can try to risk a fakeclaim here to save Cora. It is actually a modersately safe claim, because they are fairly certain that there is no JK. They will risk a possible cop counterclaim, because no one has come out with a cop claim yet, despite the whole day. The bet is this: a cop would know that by claiming, there would be a confirmed doc+cop setup, the strongest setup possible. The game then becomes a simple follow-the cop. With D1+D2 mislynch, N1 nokill, and N2 doc kill, the cop would have 3 confirmed reads (2 from cop checks, one is Zare=town) in a 6 player game on D3. It would be easy! The lack of this makes it quite safe for Sn0 to cop claim. The problem is, he insists on not seeing the simple follow-the-cop for the win. Even if warbaby is scum with doc fakeclaim, we'd have dead cop with a town read on Cora, and a confirmed scum in warbaby.. also EZ-PZ. This is what makes Sn0's failure to switch off warbaby really scummy. Night 2 Cora finds himself in a bad position, so he throws shit at zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17679171 We all call him out for it. Sn0+cora worry that if Sn0 stays alive, he will get lynched because town won't believe in a situation that scum does not kill the cop claim. My posts and reasoning leaves them a way out of the situation -- but there does not look like there is enough controversy around Sn0. Only glurio threw some shit at Sn0. So, Cora tries stupid convoluted tricks to give plausibility to the scenario that Sn0 lives. The expected happens: we lose a confirmed town. But Zare points out one important thing On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified. And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk. And like I already said a couple of times, those aren't even real breadcrumbs. ========== Day 3 Sn0 and Cora won't work with me, shit fest happens. ========== TL;DR: Zare is right about why Sn0's claim looks off. ##Unvote ##Vote: cdgCorazon | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Explain your D2 and N2, and show us by other means why the scum are glurio and/or Slay. Sn0: Why should I vote you, when your death does not fully confirm Cora scum? I play to win. If cora flips scum, then you must be scum. The reverse is not true, in spite of the association between the two of you. Show us why your cop claim is actually credible, and walk us through your D2 through the eyes of a cop. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: Immediately post-night 2, glurio comes out swinging because he knows he *has* to discredit me or he loses. He makes more in-depth posts than ever before and they are extremely tunnelled on me (admittedly mine are equally tunnelled on him). After basically blowing his cover (since his previous excuse was basically bad/lazy town), he retreats into hiding hoping the seeds of doubt he has sown blossom and grow. He has flung his shit and has no real content to provide so he resumes lurking. And over the course of this day, instead of clearing stuff up, the rest of town decides that it wants to lynch... Corazon? what is up here? There is no possible way from any perspective that corazon is the right lynch. However, cakepie's obsession with "playing the game" have resulted in more uncertainty and lack of clarity. If you choose to believe that glurio is just a lazy townie, then explain his outburst post-N2, especially how well he grasped my options as cop and how scum could abuse them to make me look scummy. He clearly had spent a ton of time thinking on it and working through the possibilities. Not really consisted with lazy town IMO, but very consistent with lurky scum. See, this is the sort of thing I wanted sooner. On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: I don't know what else to say. There is no playing left for me. I have solved the game, provided as much info to you as possible, and now I await the jury's choice. The jury needs convincing. You have to bring other evidence besides a policeman's testimony. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
I've got the response that I need from Sn0. ##unvote ##vote: glurio I had to turn confirmation bias on so hard in order to make that bullshit case. Details briefly, just needed the vote switch in asap. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
- it is the mother of all association cases without flip - the whole D1/N1 speculation on what happened is WIFOM. In particular, the choice for scum to kill Zare N1 is equally valid for other scumteams. - Corazon voting Acid D2 was not unjustified, just poorly justified. - Sn0's second vote on warbaby is not flippant. He did indeed take issue with warbaby's play, and painting him as "sadscum". The justification may not be strongest, but most importantly Sn0 understood the significance of his vote: to force warbaby to defend himself and his behavior, rather than brush it off. - a lot of the D2 WIFOM I put out is equally explainable by Sn0 with a green check on Cora. - slayalot votes onto warbaby to replace zare. this is incriminating for slayalot too, with lack of justification. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. - Corazon shits his pants at impending lynch is technically null. - Sn0's failure to switch is null, as I have described before. - Cora's N2 is easily bad town. - and lastly On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: [...]. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack Well duh, he didn't want to out himself so soon if he could help it. On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. He is the cop, does not believe warbaby, thinks it could be cop+VT or cop+JK or cop+doc. For a stretch of time, he even believed that there was a real doc who should not counter claim and expose himself yet. The simple explanation is that Sn0 was just wrong about warbaby. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 08:41 Acid~ wrote: I'm at a loss here. I'll go with the strategy that won us the last game, but I really hate the implications. You have any better ideas? Because my case was complete bullshit and I had trouble making myself believe it. And glurio's pleading isn't gaining any traction with me. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 22:03 glurio wrote: Look at sn0s voting pattern and don't just cherry pick what fits your agenda. On February 02 2013 23:38 glurio wrote: Right. It's just as incriminating as mine or slays, which i thought cakepie should've also highlighted. So i did highlight it in a fitting color. It's a different thing to make a wagon credible with a second vote, as opposed to blind bandwagoning for critical mass. ----- On February 03 2013 09:09 glurio wrote: Sn0 has shown no single argument why i should be scum except "i figured the game out" or "thats the only possible combination". How can you believe such weak evidence when you got so much evidence against him and cora? You mean my bullshit "case"? It doesn't hold water under scrutiny, and I didn't even believe it myself. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 09:44 Acid~ wrote: No, that's what makes me sad. I really believe glurio is scum, which means Corazon is town. I think that's going to be it for me on the mafia games for a while. I won't blame you for wanting to take a break after this game, but know this: - This game is completely out of whack. Most games aren't like that. When I did my catching up and saw a 5.5-player D1 (I count many people as not playing or half-playing) with a tainted voting record (abenson), and the whole early-mid D2 mess I was like, what the fuck did I just replace into? And I still feel that way. BTW Hey can I get a refund on my newbie game quota? - Your logical deduction, when you chose to use it, was excellent. I really hope you don't let this game discourage you from playing in future. - Aggressive and abrasive is a perfectly valid playstyle to adopt. Just watch yourself and don't overstep the line and become personally nasty. (You're not the only one at fault for that in this game.) Don't worry about offending people -- it's a game, and if they can't take it, that's their problem, not yours. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Yes, we could no-lynch and see if slayalot gets modkilled, but I think most of us would rather just end this game now. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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