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actually I think I'm just running complicated circles around myself again. I remember why I considered jay town again, despite his inactivity he seems to be up-front in his questions and he seems to at least want to win the game.
Lazer's still not here, and neither is xata.
Let's go back to the simplest explanation I had, and that was in my votecount analysis before my seeding the thread with reads pulled grush out of his inactivity.
if grush left his vote on Lazer over Hopeless on d2 it could have meant Lazer would have died. If grush is scum with Lazer this is a really scary thing to do. Certainly if he places his vote and then moves it inexplicably it doesn't matter, since he's planning on squandering it anyway (as scum.) It makes no sense as town to waste your vote like that EVEN IF you have suddenly changed your mind about Hapa/Hopeless. It only makes sense if you intend on pushing your read to a lynch, but grush was not intending that. He was intending to afk, to leave his vote there, to waste it.
At that point even if one of us wanted to switch off Hopeless onto lazer, Hopeless still would've died because he reached 4 votes first. (it was 5-3-1 at that point)
The only way this makes sense from a town grush perspective is if he thought both Hopeless and Lazer were town, but it's clear by both his votes and his talk that he did not view lazer as town. He's not dumb, he knew the vote was between those 2. It's simply a scum move to waste it by putting it on Hapa, regardless of what we know now about Hapa's alignment.
I'm very tempted to simply go with Occam's Razor here and simply say we should lynch grush and then lazer.
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On January 24 2013 10:17 wherebugsgo wrote:
actually I think I'm just running complicated circles around myself again. I remember why I considered jay town again, despite his inactivity he seems to be up-front in his questions and he seems to at least want to win the game.
Lazer's still not here, and neither is xata.
Let's go back to the simplest explanation I had, and that was in my votecount analysis before my seeding the thread with reads pulled grush out of his inactivity.
if grush left his vote on Lazer over Hopeless on d2 it could have meant Lazer would have died. If grush is scum with Lazer this is a really scary thing to do. Certainly if he places his vote and then moves it inexplicably it doesn't matter, since he's planning on squandering it anyway (as scum.) It makes no sense as town to waste your vote like that EVEN IF you have suddenly changed your mind about Hapa/Hopeless. It only makes sense if you intend on pushing your read to a lynch, but grush was not intending that. He was intending to afk, to leave his vote there, to waste it.
At that point even if one of us wanted to switch off Hopeless onto lazer, Hopeless still would've died because he reached 4 votes first. (it was 5-3-1 at that point)
The only way this makes sense from a town grush perspective is if he thought both Hopeless and Lazer were town, but it's clear by both his votes and his talk that he did not view lazer as town. He's not dumb, he knew the vote was between those 2. It's simply a scum move to waste it by putting it on Hapa, regardless of what we know now about Hapa's alignment.
I'm very tempted to simply go with Occam's Razor here and simply say we should lynch grush and then lazer.
no reason not to examine all the possibilities we cant be wrong
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WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him?
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On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote:
WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him?
yeah, maybe the simplest explanation in reality is that you weren't thinking. lol.
iamp, when you're back:
do you think scum could have chosen to hold their roleblock after slOosh claimed that Xata is blue? (i.e. Xata is scum)
Right now the two players notably absent from this conversation are Xata and Lazer. Jay was around earlier.
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ah well fuck it's night in europe
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On January 24 2013 10:42 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote:
WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him? yeah, maybe the simplest explanation in reality is that you weren't thinking. lol. iamp, when you're back: do you think scum could have chosen to hold their roleblock after slOosh claimed that Xata is blue? (i.e. Xata is scum) Right now the two players notably absent from this conversation are Xata and Lazer. Jay was around earlier.
based on the setup we should have another blue correct?
i'm not good at that stuff.
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right now? no, I don't think so.
Suppose thrawn was a blue snipe, it's pretty plausible, and they possibly even avoided shooting me because they might have thought I was protted or something, then holding RB is a potential.
My problem with that though is that n2 is when thrawn died and prior to that, scum knew there had to be at least another blue role outside of super, because of the SK flip. Lazer was speculating about it, so either he's scum who simply copied in what his team was talking about or he was trying to figure it out himself. I don't actually see what conclusions he drew from it so it's certainly plausible that he simply copied and pasted what his team was talking about.
Normally if you setup-speculate you at least have a reason for doing it, lazer didn't seem to have one.
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oh and because they knew there was another blue then holding RB doesn't make much sense
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so then xaltos is almost certainly town correct
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that's been my thinking so far, but if they actually held RB n1 and didn't use it on super then they could have held it again.
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On January 24 2013 09:35 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 09:21 iamperfection wrote:
hrmmmmmmm
pondering the possibilities.
Mr lazer any updated thoughts because i have some thoughts on you now.
But would like to hear what you think of the remaining players. lazer thoughts on the wbg case
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On January 24 2013 12:09 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 09:35 grush57 wrote:On January 24 2013 09:21 iamperfection wrote:
hrmmmmmmm
pondering the possibilities.
Mr lazer any updated thoughts because i have some thoughts on you now.
But would like to hear what you think of the remaining players. lazer thoughts on the wbg case
is that all your going to do with your time?
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ffs, are you going to answer it?
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You could say: Yes It brings some good points or, no wbg is town or, w/e
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I thought you were asking lazer
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On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote:
WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him?
Lurking seems to be the theme of this game :/ Not that I'm innocent myself, since I can post decently only for a small portion of the day outside of weekend.
grush has been much more active lately though. Maybe it's the fear of death, maybe genuine will to figure out the final scums. If grush happened to be town, it's pretty hard to understand him assuring Hopeless' death despite having a townread on him, but it's not impossible that he just played bad (the same argument that can be made for Kush's anti-town play). At least one of grush/Lazer pretty much has to be scum though (even both is possible). Lazermonkey's diminishing activity is definitely worrying and enough to make me consider him as our best choice tomorrow.
I'll be back home before deadline to try and make sense of grush/Lazer/Jay.
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I'm feeling much better today : D.
As for reads, they are pretty much unchanged since yesterday.
Iamp - town.
WBG - town. I'm even more confident in this read now. The way WBG raged is imo a big town tell. I have seen many guys rage like that and none of them have been scum. Also, he is considering me to be town, which seems to be a stupid strat if he would've been scum.
Xata - most likely town.
Jay - scum.
grush - scum.
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On January 24 2013 11:11 wherebugsgo wrote:
right now? no, I don't think so.
Suppose thrawn was a blue snipe, it's pretty plausible, and they possibly even avoided shooting me because they might have thought I was protted or something, then holding RB is a potential.
My problem with that though is that n2 is when thrawn died and prior to that, scum knew there had to be at least another blue role outside of super, because of the SK flip. Lazer was speculating about it, so either he's scum who simply copied in what his team was talking about or he was trying to figure it out himself. I don't actually see what conclusions he drew from it so it's certainly plausible that he simply copied and pasted what his team was talking about.
Normally if you setup-speculate you at least have a reason for doing it, lazer didn't seem to have one. Like you said, I came to the conclusion that Xata most likely is town. After SK flipped and mason pair flipped, we knew the setup is:
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
However, since scum obviously know the amount of players on their own team, they knew this by the time that SlOosh flipped SK. So they knew there most likely would be extra town roles(since this isn't exactly C9++ we cannot know for sure becasue Dandel said he wouldn't add one-shot roles, however we can do educated guesses).
And btw, holding D1 RB is generally a minor loss to scum due to the fact that there is less information on meta changes and stuff like that. This makes it even harder for scum to try figure out who is blue and who is not.
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holy smokes batman! This Jayguy is sooo scum. Look through his filter. While he does some chitty chat with Hapa, he doesn't actually make a read on him. AT ALL... Untill this post D4.On January 22 2013 10:44 jaybrundage wrote:
Welp Zentor died told that bastard to post >.<
I haven't really thought of hapa much as scum but you guys bring up some good points . His lack of posting is a pretty big warning sign. Also as Ziggler pointed out Hapa hates people lurking and he always does his best to prod the town and push the town and drive discussion This game I havent seen that from him.
Also the fact that hapa hasn't been shot is suspect. However the same can be said of WBG as both are vets that know how to play a good town.
The more I look over hapa the less I see him as town and the more scummy he looks.
However grush is also really scummy his consistent lack of contributing and last day he threw his vote to the side he didn't even want a choice in deciding the lynch candidate. Like what the hell is that?
Im going to have to look things over again. But Iamp is making some good sense.
##Vote Hapahauli
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im probably going to be dropping reads on everyone as i have time today.
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EPT
