EPTIf one of them is not scum then who is?
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
If one of them is not scum then who is? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
I'll have to read filters when I get home. I think we're in a pretty good spot right now, but there's still room left for mistake. Tomorrow is still LYLO after all. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
It pretty much has to be lazer + grush I think. Let's start with the votecounts, starting with day 1. Day 1: Xatalos (1): jaybrundage Promethelax (7): slOosh, thrawn2112, grush57, MrZentor, Xatalos, Ruuch, Supersoft Lazermonkey (1): Promethelax Ruuch (4): Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo, Hapahauli, Hopeless1der Hapa votes Ruuch, which makes it almost impossible for Ruuch to be mafia. It was a latecycle switch and I don't see a scum hapa being willing to switch on his own teammate, since mafia cannot accurately predict what town will do in that type of a situation. Lazer also happened to vote Ruuch. (and yes, my vote is there too) This makes iamp surely town. d2 votecount doesn't really mean much, since from a mafia perspective the lynch was between two townies. d3 we have Hopeless dying and here's where things are interesting. Hopeless1der (5): Hapahauli, Xatalos, jaybrundage, Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo Lazermonkey (3): Hopeless1der, MrZentor, iamperfection Hapahauli (1): grush57 There are three townies on lazer. That means the three scum have to be between grush and everyone on Hopeless. Grush at some point was on Hopeless, but didn't like the hopeless lynch. Grush is not stupid-he trolls, but he is smart enough to know that voting Hapa randomly in the middle of a divided wagon like that is not going to get hapa lynched. He wasted his vote here. If he had simply placed it on Lazer then lazer would have had 4 votes, meaning that any one townie who switched off Hopeless onto lazer would've killed lazer over hopeless. Also, it fits with this really weird tendency by scum to stay off the same wagon. I've only once ever seen all the mafia on a team place their votes on the same wagon. It almost never happens, they are generally aware enough to not make that kind of trend pop out even though ultimately no one looks for it that much. Now, do one thing: take the word "grush", and open Hapa's filter in a new tab. ctrl-f, paste. Notice the difference between how Hapa talks about grush and how he talks about pretty much every other player in the game. Notice how he questions people about grush but almost never talks to him, makes a read of his own about him, or in general really takes a stance either way about him. Note how when he is asked to make reads, he makes a singular, relatively weak post about grush, and then, unlike all of the other players he talks about, chooses to quote himself in order to reiterate what he said previously. Scum HATE to make opinions on players, especially their own teammates. They'll do a lot of different things to avoid talking about scumbuddies, and avoidance is the keyword when it comes to hapa regarding grush. He also asks several times, with other players, notably myself and Hopeless, why we think grush is scum. He didn't seem to care all that much about us calling other players scum, so why did he care so much about grush despite not really providing a read of his own there? This is reinforced in the other direction by the incredibly strange stance change that grush took. He was voting Hopeless and then suddenly randomly he simply dumped his vote onto Hapa. It made no sense except as a distance attempt, knowing that Hopeless would flip town. The second thing I'd like you all to do while the Hapa filter is open, is ctrl-f kush. At some point you will run into the phrase "kush is being kush". This phrase is only used twice by Hapa. Once, saying "grush is being grush", and once, "kush is being kush." Coincidence? I don't think so. Remember, kush got replaced by lazer. I was suspicious of kush d1. Now, look again at how Hapa interacts with kush. He calls him useless, says he's being scummy, and in general gives vibes that he actually thinks kush is scum when he interacts directly with kush. However, with other players, he refuses to put a read on kush! He refuses to say either way what he thinks of kush. The last thing to do here is to search lazer, obviously. This is better, but ONLY because Lazer was a replacement. Hapa uses the replacement as an excuse to push off his read of lazer, and he talks about lazer the most but really doesn't ultimately say anything about his alignment if you read carefully. Sorry for the shitty formatting but I wanted to get this all out before I went to bed. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
hapa has no problem talking about his buddies. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
That's why rereading is really key and if none of you are currently doing that, then you need to. Hapa dying and flipping scum is a treasure trove of information precisely because he was so active. He would have been forced to make opinions on his teammates. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Hapa is obvious scum so I'll vote him. hopefully I'm feeling better tomorrow. ##Vote: Hapahauli | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Hapahauli (6): iamperfection, jaybrundage, grush, wherebugsgo, Xatalos, Lazermonkey Not voting (1): Hapahauli Currently, Hapahauli is set to be lynched. ~ 5 hours until deadline. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On January 23 2013 17:04 wherebugsgo wrote: I think the votecounts and Hapa's interactions with other players solve the game. It pretty much has to be lazer + grush I think. Let's start with the votecounts, starting with day 1. Day 1: Xatalos (1): jaybrundage Promethelax (7): slOosh, thrawn2112, grush57, MrZentor, Xatalos, Ruuch, Supersoft Lazermonkey (1): Promethelax Ruuch (4): Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo, Hapahauli, Hopeless1der Hapa votes Ruuch, which makes it almost impossible for Ruuch to be mafia. It was a latecycle switch and I don't see a scum hapa being willing to switch on his own teammate, since mafia cannot accurately predict what town will do in that type of a situation. Lazer also happened to vote Ruuch. (and yes, my vote is there too) This makes iamp surely town. d2 votecount doesn't really mean much, since from a mafia perspective the lynch was between two townies. d3 we have Hopeless dying and here's where things are interesting. Hopeless1der (5): Hapahauli, Xatalos, jaybrundage, Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo Lazermonkey (3): Hopeless1der, MrZentor, iamperfection Hapahauli (1): grush57 There are three townies on lazer. That means the three scum have to be between grush and everyone on Hopeless. Grush at some point was on Hopeless, but didn't like the hopeless lynch. Grush is not stupid-he trolls, but he is smart enough to know that voting Hapa randomly in the middle of a divided wagon like that is not going to get hapa lynched. He wasted his vote here. If he had simply placed it on Lazer then lazer would have had 4 votes, meaning that any one townie who switched off Hopeless onto lazer would've killed lazer over hopeless. Also, it fits with this really weird tendency by scum to stay off the same wagon. I've only once ever seen all the mafia on a team place their votes on the same wagon. It almost never happens, they are generally aware enough to not make that kind of trend pop out even though ultimately no one looks for it that much. Now, do one thing: take the word "grush", and open Hapa's filter in a new tab. ctrl-f, paste. Notice the difference between how Hapa talks about grush and how he talks about pretty much every other player in the game. Notice how he questions people about grush but almost never talks to him, makes a read of his own about him, or in general really takes a stance either way about him. Note how when he is asked to make reads, he makes a singular, relatively weak post about grush, and then, unlike all of the other players he talks about, chooses to quote himself in order to reiterate what he said previously. Scum HATE to make opinions on players, especially their own teammates. They'll do a lot of different things to avoid talking about scumbuddies, and avoidance is the keyword when it comes to hapa regarding grush. He also asks several times, with other players, notably myself and Hopeless, why we think grush is scum. He didn't seem to care all that much about us calling other players scum, so why did he care so much about grush despite not really providing a read of his own there? This is reinforced in the other direction by the incredibly strange stance change that grush took. He was voting Hopeless and then suddenly randomly he simply dumped his vote onto Hapa. It made no sense except as a distance attempt, knowing that Hopeless would flip town. The second thing I'd like you all to do while the Hapa filter is open, is ctrl-f kush. At some point you will run into the phrase "kush is being kush". This phrase is only used twice by Hapa. Once, saying "grush is being grush", and once, "kush is being kush." Coincidence? I don't think so. Remember, kush got replaced by lazer. I was suspicious of kush d1. Now, look again at how Hapa interacts with kush. He calls him useless, says he's being scummy, and in general gives vibes that he actually thinks kush is scum when he interacts directly with kush. However, with other players, he refuses to put a read on kush! He refuses to say either way what he thinks of kush. The last thing to do here is to search lazer, obviously. This is better, but ONLY because Lazer was a replacement. Hapa uses the replacement as an excuse to push off his read of lazer, and he talks about lazer the most but really doesn't ultimately say anything about his alignment if you read carefully. Sorry for the shitty formatting but I wanted to get this all out before I went to bed. Yeah, I completely agree about Ruuch/iamperfection. It would have been extremely stupid for Hapa to vote for Ruuch there if Ruuch had been scum - Hapa had no pressure to do so and he could have easily caused Ruuch to get lynched with that unnecessary vote. I can see how grush's vote for Hapa fits better with distancing than genuine suspicion. It was in every way a wasted vote and, if Lazermonkey is scum, also a good way to help him. At first I thought it made a Hapa/grush scumteam unlikely, but since that sudden push for Hapa didn't actually put him in any danger, distancing is more likely. Speaking of which, I have a really hard time picking between Lazermonkey and Jay. On the other hand, Kush played in a way that was completely suicidal for scum. But on the other hand, Jay has been pretty active and openly contributing his reads after D1 - even if he is considered a lynchbait. The fact that Lazermonkey has been up for lynch several times and always somehow escaped feels like there could be a scum agenda behind pushing his counter-wagons. Fortunately we have a claimed scum in thread, so we have a lot of time for deliberation. grush, speak out on your reads and everything that comes to your mind. Since it's starting to feel like you're the best choice for tomorrow, but there's always the chance that we're on the wrong track. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
He mentions Crossfire maybe...3 times, and all he does is ask people if he's a smurf or what, and then doesn't try to further a read on him. Then, he makes an offhand remark later in the game about something Crossfire did or said. Nothing there. He doesn't mention his second teammate at all from what I could tell. His biggest concerns were debears, talking to marv, Z-Boson, and some others (yes, he was only alive d1, but still). I was curious to see who his other teammate was, so I went into the endgame and saw djodref. Having read Hapa's filter and small bits and pieces in context of his posts I would never have even guessed djo was playing that game. I'm pretty confident in light of this that grush is hapa's scumbuddy. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On January 24 2013 05:29 grush57 wrote: I suggest we lynch either between me or wbg tommorow because if I get lynched we won't waste time lynching lazer than me causing town loss, plus if we lynch wbg then lazer will probably surrender. soooo if you are town what interest do you have in lynching me before lazer? You just basically said lazer is 100% scum, but that you'd rather lynch between us over him. If you were actually town and actually believed I was scum with Lazer then you'd know that lynching between me and you is 50/50, whereas lynching Lazer is 100%. Nice scumclaim. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On January 24 2013 05:33 wherebugsgo wrote: soooo if you are town what interest do you have in lynching me before lazer? You just basically said lazer is 100% scum, but that you'd rather lynch between us over him. If you were actually town and actually believed I was scum with Lazer then you'd know that lynching between me and you is 50/50, whereas lynching Lazer is 100%. Nice scumclaim. I'm making a case proving your scum its alright  How is it 50/50 when I'm sure your scum. Besides you and lazer are going to try and counterlynch me, its nice how you preferred to lynch me over Hapa but finally bussed him because no one was changing. Lazer was also the last one to vote Hapa. You and Lazer are going to try to lynch me, and I will be trying to lynch you. I'd rather lynch you first. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On January 24 2013 05:33 wherebugsgo wrote: soooo if you are town what interest do you have in lynching me before lazer? You just basically said lazer is 100% scum, but that you'd rather lynch between us over him. If you were actually town and actually believed I was scum with Lazer then you'd know that lynching between me and you is 50/50, whereas lynching Lazer is 100%. Nice scumclaim. Hey nice scum claim, lazer is 100% because he is scum, its 50/50 between you and me because I am town and you are scum. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Town loses if we lynch wrong tomorrow. it's what, 4v3 now? hapa scum, townie dies = 3v2 tomorrow. Town LOSES if we lynch wrong. This is a fucking scum claim by grush. | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
LOL | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On January 24 2013 05:49 wherebugsgo wrote: so you're saying you know who scum will shoot, too? LOL When did I ever say who scum will shoot? | ||
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