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On December 28 2012 12:15 Chromatically wrote: What I said there was a correct conclusion drawn from an incorrect premise. I assumed that Orange and FC weren't in a team together because Orange had voted FC before and was voting him now. Because of the voteswitch and the scumteam's willingness to bus this game, that's obviously a bad assumption.
Sorry chrom, what is this in response to again?
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On December 28 2012 14:31 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:15 Chromatically wrote: What I said there was a correct conclusion drawn from an incorrect premise. I assumed that Orange and FC weren't in a team together because Orange had voted FC before and was voting him now. Because of the voteswitch and the scumteam's willingness to bus this game, that's obviously a bad assumption. Sorry chrom, what is this in response to again?
Nvm figured it out, it's to address Syl's point to your Dec 28 06:56 post.
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On December 28 2012 14:58 cDgCorazon wrote:Because he voted to lynch FC. He was on the fence of the whole Shz/Kick lynching trains.
Not quite. Wait for my explanatory post.
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On December 28 2012 14:46 shz wrote: Could you please explain why? What was your reasoning behind voting Kick at 59 when you could have done it earlier? I'll be glad to step you through my late-D3 experience.
I woke up to the posts at around 7:10KST, Kickstart was still away, and counting up the votes it was still rather even at kickstart 4, fatchunk 3. Nothing much changed overnight, and no one had cared to offer much else in response to my questions; neither scum nor lurker town were baited out, and I was frustrated.
My original intention had been to try to get some discussion and voting activity going while I was asleep, so that I could assess it, as well as vote back onto Kickstart if needed. But:
The lynch is pretty much set unless we get some crazy swing going elsewhere, so I don't see that moving my vote would do anything here. Voting back onto Kickstart would simply give the wagon the final push it needed, and figuratively turn the ignition on the obvious scum bus. I would not do it. On the other hand, a swing elsewhere would be ridiculous crazy either way you look at it. Would enough townies sheep it? How many scum would have to risk sticking their necks out to pull something like this off?
Hence I was extremely skeptical of a swing onto shz wagon, initiated by Chromatically:
On December 28 2012 08:49 cakepie wrote: Numerically, you need to move two people off the Kickstart wagon onto shz, assuming kickstart is really headed for a modkill. (yes, even if you get all FC votes to consolidate onto shz, due to tie vote)
shz is here, but obviously not likely to vote for himself.
Aquanim is here. Who else have we got to work with? The implications I was trying to make, if you read beteen the lines: besides Chromatically, Aquanim, shz and myself are conspicuously present. Others may be lurking -- have not posted in the past hour, while useful discussion had been ongoing. Who cares enough to be actively discussing, and who is just bumming around uselessly?
Shz, with his 8:08KST post, was locked in either as a townie in despair, or scum bus on Kickstart. Furthermore, I firmly believed Aquanim would not be budged, and I had been prepared to switch my vote back onto Kickstart to begin with anyway, if things changed sufficiently while I was asleep.
But I saw a possibility to make the voting interesting for later analysis, so I tried to make it look like there was enough of a possibility of switching, in order to draw out scum or bad sheep.
My key questions to myself at that point: Are sheeping townies really so bad as to not learn their lesson, and still sheep again? - I should really hope not, but who knows? Are scum really going to switch wagons en masse in a ridiculously obvious move? - if Kickstart is scum about to be lynched, then they're in a bit of disarray anyways, might as well give it a shot.
Whatever the case, it would give us people to scrutinize, and did not threaten to derail the kickstart lynch yet, so I was resolved to let it run for a bit and see if it went anywhere.
Crucially, we get to this post:
On December 28 2012 08:51 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 08:41 Chromatically wrote: Will there be a modkill or replacement for Kickstart? This is remarkably important. If no replacement, we should be looking to use our votes elsewhere.
This is me, caught up to 08:49. With 10 minutes to go, my mind was considering the following: - if replacement, then the kickstart lynch should be pushed through due to the risk of a replacement for possibly scum kick playing completely differently, and making it impossible to read kick/replacement - if modkill, then kick dies either way scum or town, and it is more important to have votes elsewhere for the purposes of analysis.
My decision of staying on the FatChunk pressure or moving back to Kickstart depended on this. Although I also had my eye on OrangeRemi, there was more of a credible threat going on FatChunk, so there my vote stayed.
Of course, once I posted that I saw Kickstart's vote, leading to:
On December 28 2012 08:53 cakepie wrote: Oh god kickstart WHAT THE FUCK
(WIFOM) fact: I actually finished typing in a vote on Kickstart along with this post, but I paused and realized it would be too soon if I did that. I wanted to wait and see who would make the jump off from the Kickstart wagon onto shz, now that Kickstart being in the picture made a mass voteswitch marginally numerically viable, plus the fact that a shz wagon started to look like the correct kind of bait.
So I stayed my hand, and deleted the vote before posting, waiting to see what would happen.
Lo and behold, we have Orangeremi switching, while fingering Chromatically to be blamed for a potential mislynch. Which was fine by me -- 8:55 and still room for one more to safely switch. I checked my math again, with the benefit of coffee this time. Yep, let's wait a while yet, let the tension build up. ...aaand FatChunk makes the switch.
It is 8:58. I start preparing my vote in case it is needed. Refresh -- okay, it's just Chrom and Aqua, time 8:59. Refresh again -- oh snap, it's the votecount -- well, thank goodness my vote wasn't needed. Post the vote anyway? Nah - don't want to anger the hosts, and incoming WIFOM is already guaranteed, whether I post the vote or not. Celebrate a bit, refill coffee, get ready to analyze voting.
And that's what happened. (Note: withholding one scumhunting observation that is not directly relevant to this discussion)
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Anything else before I pop out of here?
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@Shz: Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto together with Kickstart. Out of chrom, orange, and fc, who is the scum that jumped wagons, and who is the misguided town?
And where would the remaining scum be hiding?
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On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet.
What do you mean "surprised they haven't been nk'd yet"? Care to elaborate?
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Let me rephrase the question: why do you expect these two to have been killed by now?
They "hop[ped] on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover" only D3, so surely you don't intend that as a reason that they should have already been killed earlier.
So, I ask you again: How/Why do you see them to be so great a threat to the scum team that they should have taken precedence over mocsta on N1, and yamato on N2?
If not as a threat, what other reason do you have to expect that they should be dead by the hands of scum by now?
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@ syl I think he's up to something else. If neither Aqua or you, Syl, get killed, who would scum look to kill? And what misdirection would they be attempting, if they are not killing the most obvious threat to themselves at the moment?
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On December 28 2012 23:49 Sylencia wrote: If you stay alive, he's making a play at you to vote someone other than himself.
And if I don't? (Keep your answer to yourself.)
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Q: if roleblocker A targets roleblocker B, and B targets C (say, a medic), then B receives a roleblock notification. But is C sucessfully blocked by B?
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I wanted to clarify the specific case of two RBs rather than a RB on a jailer. But thanks!
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Who's here (and not furiously drafting?)
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I'd like to hear your thoughts on "surely scum is not so stupid as to all switch together" and the possibility that one of orange or FC is still a hapless bad sheep.
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On December 29 2012 08:42 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2012 08:33 cakepie wrote: I'd like to hear your thoughts on "surely scum is not so stupid as to all switch together" and the possibility that one of orange or FC is still a hapless bad sheep. By "hapless bad sheep", do you mean they are a bad town? Or scummy?
bad town
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Read and acknowledged.
On December 29 2012 08:40 cDgCorazon wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote:I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:30 cakepie wrote: 3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves.
This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote: Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick.
##Vote: shz
Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Show nested quote + Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for.
Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunkHis original vote post: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right.
##unvote ##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process.
Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read.
but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know.
Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: Show nested quote +I was pretty confident in following someone with a town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler +On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia.
And this post: + Show Spoiler +On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward.
Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here?It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion? EBWOP: Fixed BB code.
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Revisiting D1 voting with the benefit of new information.
Early phase: Shz strange early pressure vote on Mocsta FatChunk taking the easy threesr vote (and staryed there all day). Chrom onto corazon is hard to place one way or the other
Havoc phase: Basically bad/lazy threesr causing a mess, nothing to look at here.
Corazon wagon phase:
OmniEulogy -> cDgCorazon 20 0929 threesr -> cDgCorazon 20 1311 shz -> cDgCorazon 20 1317 Sylencia -> cDgCorazon 20 1405
If scum has not already put two on corazon, they would be doing it here. A third scum is either still lurking and waiting, not voting yet, or has already voted elsewhere -- in which case I feel it would most likely on threesr {FatChunk, Corazon, Mocsta}, which leads me to suspect FatChunk somewhat.
We now know Omni and threesr to be town. The other two are hard to say -- shz is still under some scrutiny; syl has fallen under the radar somewhat. The note on FatChunk may have been right.
Spaghetticus case initiation phase:
Aquanim -> Spaghetticus 20 1936 OmniEulogy -> Spaghetticus 20 2150 OrangeRemi -> nolynch 20 2247 Chromatically -> FatChunk 20 2354 cDgCorazon -> nolynch 21 0026 cDgCorazon -> threesr 21 0040
This is uninteresting now that Omni flipped town. Chromatically left off the pressure on Corazon, and switched to FatChunk, a reasonable choice, while keeping open the possibility of moving to Spaghetticus. This is consistent with his overall play D2 and D3 as well -- broadening the number of lurkers and suspects under pressure before consolidating.
Spaghetticus wagon phase:
Mocsta -> Spaghetticus 21 0052 cakepie -> Spaghetticus 21 0252 kickstart -> Spaghetticus 21 0531 Chromatically -> Spaghetticus 21 0657 shz -> Spaghetticus 21 0725 OrangeRemi -> Fatchunk 21 0850
It is now clear that kickstart sheeped onto the wagon. But what of Chromatically and shz? An honest townie mistake, or scum on the wagon? Did Chrom deliberately leave open the option to move to spag, so as to blend in with the lynch of the day? OrangeRemi votes very late, and the vote does not matter to the lynch -- comfortably distancing himself from Fatchunk, perhaps?
Revisiting D2 voting. Actually interesting when compared to D1: now kickstart is apart, while the whole bloody world sheeps onto OmniEulogy.
On roleblocks I believe the roleblocked claims are all true -- town need not lie, and scum would not risk being called out on lying, so they must follow suit. I asked the hosts some pertinent questions. I will let you all think on it yourselves, and act appropriately. Someone tried to block me both nights so far, so I will not reveal what I am just yet.
On D3 voting and the voteswing
I am actually fairly convinced that FatChunk and Orangeremi are the most likely remaining scum, and that we saw very frazzled scum in mid to late D3 in the absence of kickstart. Occam's razor says this is the simple and obvious solution (yes, in spite of me raising the possibility that there is some complex masterplan behind it).
Crucially, under this hypothesis it is possible to parse the D3 voting as follows:
+ Show Spoiler +When Corazon (at 28 0136) took the D3 voting up to KickStart (3): cakepie, Aquanim, Sylencia, cDgCorazon, cDgCorazon FatChunk (2): Chromatically, cakepie With time running out, FatChunk and Orangeremi are forced to distribute their votes: OrangeRemi -> FatChunk @28 0159+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote: The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate.
In the meantime I'm going back to one of my initial reads.
##Vote: FatChunk Reason given: scum seems okay with the Kickstart wagon. FatChunk -> KickStart @28 0507+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 05:07 FatChunk wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 18:22 cakepie wrote: The town who may be among the lurkers are in fear that whatever they can bring to the table now will not be enough, and they fear getting mislynched, what with how we did on the first two days. So ironically while we are pressing them for substance, we cannot hope for much substance anyway. If they have been playing lazily, the task of catching up, and then stepping up to the plate, can be too daunting.
I literally just kept delaying posting for this reason. I have been quite lazy. OMGUS? First, I'd like to address something that gave cakepie a scumread on me: Me lynching omni for information. In that post of mine I prefaced the post with such a statement. I later began to develop why I think this would be a good lynch, followed by stating that I had a scumread on him. The town flip on omni makes us doubt Mocsta's cases on chrom and cakepie, and helps us look at relationships omni has with other players. My scum reads are for Kickstart, and orangeremi, and sHz. Followed by Sylencia. basically, the lurkers. Now i realize this is hypocritical because i lurk too. I think that mafia have let town go crazy and lynch themselves while they wait in the back on a weak LAL policy. But I think we're all learning now - posters that are coming active NOW are the ones trying to establish themselves as town (sHz, orangeremi,). I guess kickstart is an exception though, busy holidays? no defense whatsoever can't be smart. Kickstart: -Basically in the early game he makes the vote on the spag train to a town lynch. -Is very narrow-minded in whom he suspects scum. Poor scumhunter, makes a small effort in the vein of "I'll make a weak case against someone for them to shut it down, so that i look like a scumhunter!" against cakepie, shz. -His reads are basically shz. nobody else except a well-deflected stand against cakepie. Kick: who are your other two scum reads besides sHz and why? -bandwagonner -no effort to help town sHz: -One of the players who is attempting to establish themelves as town. -after 2 days of afk from christmas, shz posts: + Show Spoiler +On December 27 2012 13:42 shz wrote: while Orange declared him scummy on a few occasions but never actually voted or applied any real pressure. I don't think that anyone actually looked into Kick because of him, which could be a very clever scum-play. But is it? I don't know.
I'm not sure if we could actually get any information on their relation if we lynch any of them. But I don't know if we actually could gain more information by lynching anyone else, and out of all the lurkier players, he seems to be the scumiest. I will probably vote for him. At this point, no one is a safe bet, but the safest seems to be Kick.
This is really hard to get a grip on and in no way I am confidend in this days lynch. Fuck. -very mild reads, not confident in his scumread on kick. basically 50/50 read. What happens if Kick turns town, he looks like scum. if kick turns scum he looks like scum because he tried to save kick. Orangeremi: -my third suspect, basically the same as all the other lurkers -suspects me early on, with no explanation why. He just agrees with the case that Chrom put forward, and then claims that its his suspicion. why? because he has to pick another player in the lurkers to keep the attention off himself and his team. Is forcing it now to get pressure off his back. -one-sentence scum reads on players who are already under suspicion. -forced town-sympathetic posts of frustration. And regarding the discussion question: Chrom: i used to have suspicions on because he would aggressively twist my words and throw them back in my face. but I now realize that this can just be the aggressive nature of a towny. Has had some pretty good logic and scumhunting, however, like everyone else, has been wrong 100% of the time. Honestly, the effort put into this game makes me think he's town. From what I can tell he is the best scum read for alot of us: ##Vote: Kickstart terrible, terrible sheep, while distancing from Orange Yet when Chromatically offered shz wagon, and Kickstart appeared, both Orangeremi and FC jumped. I discussed my involvement (or, technically, the lack thereof) here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17368370I have alluded in an that discussion that "shz wagon started to look like the correct kind of bait." whereas I was unable to get a response to my questioning/voting. What was “incorrect bait” on my part? The alternative wagon on FatChunk, because he is scum as well, so scum is forced between a rock and a hard place as long as kickstart was not available. They were not willing to bus him outright -- he was too valuable perhaps. And so the vote sits comfortably at 4:3, pending...and the rest is history. We’ve all already taken note of the terrible way that FC switched, and the way that OrangeRemi conveniently transfers blame for a potential mislynch onto Chromatically while not actually convinced shz is scum.
If you go back to early N3 you’ll see I have been poking around for other players' reads on FC vs Orange vs Chrom (vs Shz), or checked if their read on shz has turned town due to the wagon, or offerred the possibility that not all of the voteswitch is scum. Several players have answered capably. But orange...
What the (bleep)?
Go read 22:20 KST onwards, if you haven’t already http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17370236
How the @#$% is it possible to be surprised that aquanim and/or sylencia are not dead by NK yet, [given] "what they've contributed"?
Sylencia has been rather quiet and has never been a big threat to scum. Why on earth would scum spend NK on a mildly suspicious, inscrutable player rather than a clear townie threat? Utter rubbish and a distraction.
Aquanim was certainly ripe to be killed by scum tonight. But there is no way scum needed to kill him N1 (after he led the spag mislynch) and he kept a lower profile D2, so it is easy to argue that yamato with his fresh reads is a better NK than whatever towncred basis there is for killing Aqua.
When pressured, Orange follows up with a load of crap that Syl and I talked over for a bit.
Is this a scumslip? Perhaps scum coach is trying to help cook something up, but orange is not up to the execution?
If orange is town who switched votes and would admit it is stupid, why is he not going after fatchunk, who he has been suspicious of for a long time? Instead, he tries to tell me that he thinks it is most likely that neither Chrom nor FC are scum either, and that all remaining scum are hidden on the Kick wagon. Why not FC?
And then he points to Aqua as Syl, forced to identify his most likely hidden scum on the wagon. Basis? That they’ve survived so long without being offed by scum... when easy explanations exist for why that is the case.
Words fail me.
okay, so?
Scum has competing priorities upon their single KP:- Hunting down blues
- Killing off players who may threaten to expose them soon
- Killing players with most towncred, leaving the ambiguous players
- Misdirection and sowing confusion
Not all of the objectives necessarily align all the time.
With this in mind, we can consider the possibilities already raised between syl and myself (obviously, we will not address the first point):
+ Show Spoiler +If fc/orange scum kill shz, they could try to finger Chrom and may try to convince me to their side, while claiming that they are hapless sheep. They successfully kill off a player who has arguably gained a lot of townie points as a result of the D3 vote.
If FC/orange scum kill me, it’s a WIFOM bomb against Chrom and whoever else, based on me “getting close to the answer” of other scum safely hidden on the Kick wagon. I certainly seem more open to other scumteam possibilities besides FC/orange, so killing me would be a misdirection, and offing a clear town player in their mind. But what will they hope to do against the remaining town?
The other possibilities arising from the posts [/spoiler] If FC/orange scum kill Aquanim or Syl, dumb WIFOM happens re: orangeremi’s 22:20 and 23:17 posts. Killing aqua also disposes of a threat, and a strong townread for many.[/spoiler]
The importance of night actions
PRs truly start coming into their usefulness around now.
If we assume neither a cop nor vig nor sk in this game, RB has a great chance of winning the game for us as long as he has managed to remain hidden and is unblocked. Raw odds of blocking scum RB and/or NK in N3 is 1/7, and much higher as long as the RB is savvy about his targeting -- I’d say as good as 25~33%.
If the RB has stayed hidden, and we can push the game to conclusion without him claiming, then that would be best. Don’t claim yet, if you can!
But, I have my reasons to think that there might be more to this game than RBs. But it is still dangerous to discuss it. We will have to see as things progress.
What now? If I live, I will push top scumreads according to above and react as needed to the NK. Town should not hesitate to try to tear my case apart, and present alternative explanations for any point raised.
If I don’t make it through the night: + Show Spoiler + If SK is not evident, I want you guys to push Orange, then FatChunk... but you were going to do that anyway, right? If SK rears his head: good luck, you’ll need it. Caution: one NK does not automatically imply no SK.
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GG Aqua. Thanks for the solid predawn post!
Roleblocked claims gogogo
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On December 28 2012 23:17 Orangeremi wrote: Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there. If they aren't nk'd tonight I'm going to think [snip]
Well, Aqua did get NK'd. This does not, however, excuse you from answering my earlier questions.
Why were you surprised that Aqua and Syl had not been NK'd in the first two nights? This implies you have reason to expect that they were higher priority targets for scum at some point in N1 and/or N2 compared to the people who were actually killed, namely mocsta and yamato. What reason do you have to expect that Aqua and/or Syl should have been dead by the hands of scum before N3? Are they so great a threat to the scum team that they should have taken precedence over mocsta on N1, and yamato on N2? Or is there some other reason?
Also,
On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick.
Well let's hear what your thoughts on the flip are, since you clearly had this on your mind before.
----- I'm going to get breakfast and do morning things for now, be back in a bit
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Oh, before I go--
Shz is here yah?
@shz You were trying to figure out if Kick and/or Orange is scum, before you eventually settled on the wagon for Kick, with:
I'm tired to be accused of anything no matter how or who I vote.
I'm sure we're at least willing to listen to and consider what you have to say, after the failed voteswitch on you.
Come, what are your thoughts now? What are your reads now? What do you think of what Aquanim had to say? What about my predawn post?
You had questions on my late D3. Are you satisfied with my explanation, or is there something you want elaborated?
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Just to be clear, syl, you were not roleblocked?
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