Paranoia Mafia - Page 13

On December 07 2012 21:38 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm.... debears, debears...

I'm having some trouble figuring him out. On the other hand, when I read his filter, he is basically commenting on anything he notices and generally seems like a genuine carefree townie. But on the other hand, his posts about austinmcc today strike me as weird. At first he wanted to lynch Sandroba based on some speculation, then he hesitated some more, finally coming to the conclusion that he wanted to lynch austinmcc after all. This would fit with Mafia reluctantly bussing his teammate when left no other option.

But then I keep coming back to this post.



I just don't see Mafia posting something like this (or some other posts of his either). I'm starting to get a bit paranoid about the differently highlighted PM's myself, and I wonder if debears actually knows something about this that he's going to save until LYLO. Maybe some special role? Or special PM? Then again, why is debears so confident that he's going to live until LYLO anyway? Could that be a scumslip? Ugh... This setup is the weirdest one I've ever played, that's for sure.

On December 08 2012 00:47 austinmcc wrote:
I thought about it, but I actually figured everyone would just accept my claim. I felt that I'd done a good job of looking townie on D1, everyone seemed to have me as a town read, and so I figured town read --> claim --> lbe trusted --> lynch sandroba --> near-confirmed.

A couple times throughout the day I thought about crumbing, including towards the very end (crumb it right before claiming). I figured that any later crumbing wouldn't do anything for people who don't care about crumbs, and wouldn't be very believable for people who wanted crumbs, so I figured I'd missed my window. In my head, it looks MORE suspicious to have crumbs at the end of a cycle, during the second night, than it would have to just not have crumbs at all.

Along with general "HAI GAIZ CRUMBING CAN BE FAKED."

On December 08 2012 01:41 Xatalos wrote:
EBWOP: Sandroba+debears+Lazermonkey

On December 08 2012 02:03 Lazermonkey wrote:
Austin, you requested my analysis of Sandroba yesterday, so here it is.

I get slight scum vibes from some parts of his filter. Like the post I mentioned earlier or the fact that he basically went ''Austin scum KKTHXBAI'' when you claimed kill check on him. I also think his filter is WAY too small given the time this game has taken. About 60% of his posts are in fact one liners. While posting very little can just be a trait of a lazy town, I still don't like it.

Yes, I must agree with that Sandroba has far from convinced me that he is town. In fact, had it not been for your claim, he might've been my second or third scum read for today. But given that you and him CANNOT have the same alignment(at least you cannot both be town and I'm okay with lynching you if he is bussing you nonetheless...), I simply think It's far more likely for you to be scum than for him to be.

On December 08 2012 02:07 Lazermonkey wrote:
I get the impression that ShiaoPi has in fact given up trying to convince us that his town instead trying to convince us that he is too stupid to be scum...

On December 08 2012 02:32 Lazermonkey wrote:
I have had him as scum since D1

On December 08 2012 02:42 sandroba wrote:
I'm not being lazy, I just don't see the point in repeating the obvious ten times over. Austin is for sure putting in a good show, but that's to be expected since it's likely he put all his chips in this silly move. I am reading this constantly, I just don't feel like participating in this circular argument.

On December 08 2012 03:01 sandroba wrote:
What would you like me to add? I made my stance pretty clear on everybody in this game.

On December 07 2012 00:52 sandroba wrote:
I've thought about this a little more. Why would mafia retardedly trade 1-1 for me today?
For me there is really 2 plausible possibilities:

1) Somehow we are already at mylo. I found this one unlikely. Even accounting for the multiple claims and the lack of a RB claim I think having a 5 person scum team seems very imbalanced.

2) Austin is actually Traitor. This is the most fitting explanation I found. It explains everything perfectly. It is ideal for the traitor to trade 1 for 1 with me in this spot specially with ShiaoPi being the most likely target for today. It also explains Austin behavior yesterday perfectly.

@xatalos before I subbed in this game I was following this thread along with syllo and trying to determine people's alignment. I think it was the Bluelights method comment that sealed the deal for us of you being almost certainly townie. I can't imagine anyway a mafia would reference such random obscure fact to justify his actions and it pretty much proved that you were sincere and thought this was a legit strategy and in town's best interest. After that I'd reread all your comments and noticed the same streamlined flow of thought in them, with no apparent or agenda behind them.

On December 05 2012 10:41 austinmcc wrote:
Currently, we've got a couple categories of players:

Based on abilities:
Claimed almost-certainly-town-role-given-that-you-shot-scum: DYH
Masons: Keirathi, BH, MrZ
Rest of us

I don't believe all the masons are town. So I think there's a scum within that group. Keirathi's claim is interesting, because if he were scum, he'd almost certainly (barring multiple factions/SK) know that WBG was, in fact, a mason and was, in fact, town. He also couldn't NOT claim because if WBG returned and said they were masons, we might wonder why Keirathi waited so long.

I'm leaning town on him because of his play so far, but leaning is as far as I can go.

BH/MrZ then contain a scum or two imo. BH snap counter-claimed keirathi. That's a bad call for scum, because if he knows they're town, we're going to lynch a town mason, and BH is gonna get got. Therefore, BH almost CERTAINLY town. That leaves MrZ, who I'm going to find scum by process of elimination. 4 town masons in a 15-man game with a DT and a claimed vigi? No thanks. Mason is so crazy powerful that scum would have to be STACKED to deal with that, or we'd have multiple factions, or something. We only saw 2 kills, you claimed one-shot. That means either we see multiple kills tonight and have issues with you, or we see one and we know scum isn't crazy stacked --> we don't have 4 town masons.

Beyond that, the group is Xatalos, Debears, ShiaoPi, LazerMonkey, you, Sandroba.

I mostly trust your claim for now I guess. There's no reason to be pushing you tomorrow, if you made a play with that VE shot and are anything other than town, oh well. For now, best to consider you almost-confirmed, take what we can get, and we'll sort it out later. Not gonna suggest a lynch one of our most likely townies tomorrow when there are other candidates.

So now Xatalos, debears, ShiaoPi, LazerMonkey, Sandroba

I found Sandroba's sideways defense of WBG odd. But WBG was town. And again, scum with the opportunity to mislynch WBG probably don't let that go. So while he's been kind of absent, I'm reading his defense as real, but wish he'd returned. I'd like to hear more from him, but leaning town.

Xatalos, debears, ShiaoPi, LazerMonkey

Now is when we start to get into stuff I'd rather talk about later, and not start making people targets right now. Everything above is pretty clear from what I've said in thread, and although WBG's flip changes things slightly (Sandroba looks more town than if he gave an odd defense of a scumbuddy).

On December 04 2012 23:59 austinmcc wrote:

I can't figure out why you're defending WBG in the manner you are.

Relying on alignments of people at lynch and his sincerity/emotion don't feel like strong arguments to me, and if he's been sincerely anything this game it's flippant when anyone brought up his posting D1 and when votes starting falling on him D2.

On December 08 2012 06:28 Keirathi wrote:

Who the fuck knows.

It's a themed game and nothing about the claimed roles makes sense.