EPTCompletely neglecting the possibility of third party KP?
Chrono Trigger Mafia - Page 6
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Completely neglecting the possibility of third party KP? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 24 2012 12:31 kitaman27 wrote: Third party players usually go for mafia sniping early on or target threats. Yes, its a possibility though. Yea, my problem with your speculation is that it relies on too many unknowns to amount to anything. What if there were a bunch of protective roles on Dieno, and he really took 800 damage? What if sandro actually is mafia, and third party were shooting him to mafia snipe, like you say? Too many possibilities with virtually 0 information to draw any kind of conclusions, imo. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I agree with Hapa here. He's bordering on the edge of my scumdar, because he's fallen out of his characteristic posting style. However, it was Thanksgiving and he said he was going to be away. I'll give him a bit of time to step it up before I seriously consider voting for him. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
But, prom had never mentioned kita even once. Then bam, he's in kita's party, and suddenly has a town read on him enough to back him for a vote. But, he never really gave kita a huge town read (despite saying that the leader should be the towniest person of the day), he mostly just said "yea, I kinda think kita is town but its not a really strong read, I just like his party," while simultaneously smearing syllo/sand for some dubious reasoning. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 24 2012 15:08 TheChronicler wrote: 2) You're right, I didn't. Why should I influence other people's choices? The best information is given by people making choices that haven't been influenced. The "reads" you quoted there at the end is referring to any reads by a single person. We're supposed to trust the reads of a single person who could very well be scum? Sylo isn't even confirmed town and we have Keir in thread saying he's near confirmed scum. What? No, all we know is that he picked a successful team. I think there's equal motivation for scum to succeed as there is to fail it, maybe more to succeed. I don't even know what happens if we fail the event, but it didn't look like anything happened when we won it. Maybe scum knows the results of a win/loss, maybe having a near confirmed leader was more valuable than risking another of their members to force a loss since that narrows the fault to the four people on the team, while success has now given them the chance to put the entire thread under suspicion. I guarantee if we failed the scrutiny would have fallen on the four and we would be lynching one of the four. How is that good for scum? Why am I the only one thinking of this? Huh? Are you saying that I'm nearly confirmed as scum, or that I've said that syllo is nearly confirmed scum? Because neither are true. I said syllo was most likely town, but that him choosing me for the party leaves some room for doubt. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 05:49 goodkarma wrote: This is a good point, but it's not like Sandro has been perma-afk or anything. He has been incredibly inactive, but when he has been here he has had nothing to contribute except in defense of himself. This has been brought up before, but it is the same kind of scumtell as you're using for the case against Toad. I won't be upset if Toad is lynched. However, that syllo is on Sandro, and I know that syllo is town, is enough to tip the scales in favor of lynching sandro for me. How the hell do you KNOW that syllo is town? He's not confirmed town by any means. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 07:13 goodkarma wrote: I am under the working assumption that he is town based off mission success. In other words... what iamp said. Unless you plan on making a last-minute wagon on me due to this one instance of poor word choice, though, perhaps weighing in on the two main candidates would be a better use of your time? My mind is blown that with an hour left to go people nitpick over things like this when really the only question you should be asking is: Sandroba or Toad? I'm working on a post about Sandro and Toad. It takes time to write up something like that, and I keep refreshing the end of the thread to see if there's any kind of new evidence or opinions that I should take into account. But that comment was more than just a "poor" choice of words. I've had a few posts this game that were misconstrued because of a poor choice of words, but what you said was borderline scumslip. If it wasn't so late in the day, I would put more research into you, but I just don't have time. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
sandro I'm of two minds when I think about this lynch. On one hand, I think syllo is most likely town (but there is still a fair probability that he isn't, which I've given reasons for thinking), and he proclaims to have a good handle on reading sandro. Besides that, sandro have been entirely uncooperative. The only thing he's done today in his meager amount of posts is try to defend himself to syllo. Not scumhunting, not pushing an earlier read, just purely defending himself. And I find it a bit hard to believe that someone that is as respected as a town player as sandro is would have garnered that kind of respect if that was his response to a wagon on him in other town games. But, on the other hand, this wagon has been almost entirely too easy. There was a little kita push at one point, and now some pressure onto Toad here at the end of the day, but otherwise there hasn't been any kind of counterwagon. Is scum so willing to give up one of the arguably best players in the game? Now, maybe they thought the sandro lynch today was such a foregone conclusion that they were forced to bus, but I have a hard time believing that. And I can just picture any potential scum team chomping at the bits of getting one of the "best" town players on TL lynched rather than having to shoot him. Honestly, I'm torn on his lynch as to which side is more likely. I think I would lean slightly more to the "sandro is scum" side, though, since I believe syllo is town at this point. Honestly, if there was another major candidate besides Toad, I probably wouldn't vote sandro though. Pre-Post edit: I actually forgot about the Prom/Sandro claim shenanigans. I've never seen any game where a tracker gets results on a person that is roleblocked. Sounds pretty far fetched, and I think that actually pushes me over the edge into voting sandro. Toad Yes, Toad has been noncommittal, hasn't scumhunted, etc etc. But I keep getting hung up on his claim right before he disappeared. If he is scum, its such an odd role. He has to have someone vote him on each lynch day to avoid taking damage? I mean, it's an odd town role too, but it seems counterproductive to a scum team to have to play scummy enough to receive a vote every day. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 07:53 CaveJohnson wrote: lol I'm not trying to be heroic or brave also this is a town meta for me if you want to use behavioral analysis so much. You did none of that in Aperture 2. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 07:56 goodkarma wrote: Sandroba is likely going to be modkilled. I'm changing my vote. ##Unvote ##Vote: Toad The problem is that he likely wouldn't be modkilled, just replaced. Grey said he would replace people during the first 4 days of the game. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Prom, I am also a 600AD character and I wasn't advertising to get into the party :o My role says nothing about getting a bonus to the modifier if I'm in the party when I'm in my correct time period, although I do get other bonuses ofc. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
##Vote: syllogism | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
1) Dieno - as close to confirmed town as it gets. 2) marv - despite getting niggles day 1 from his reluctance to running for party leader AND he generally less aggressive attitude, I feel like his day 2 play is exactly what I expect from a town marv Not really sure about the last spot though. My gut says Acrofales is pretty obvious town because of the way he's been actively trying to solve the game, having discussions to clarify opinions with everyone he wants to talk about, etc etc. But, I'm not really very familiar with his town play much (mostly just reading ACME), nor his scum play at all. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 10:43 goodkarma wrote: I also read Marv as town, but I don't know how I feel about him being put in a party. From what I've heard, he has a crazy good scum game, so perhaps choosing another person would be best... Also: Could you clarify once and for all what your early game comment about having a low success modifier was about? Can you clarify what you're asking? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Yes, but what question are you wanting me to answer? My role pm specifically says something to the effect that any party I'm in has a lower chance of success. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 11:06 Dienosore wrote: Are you kidding? You can't possibly think of any reason why we might want Robo as party leader during his era? Well, I don't know anything about Chrono Trigger, so I can't imagine a reason why we would necessarily want him as party LEADER. I could definitely understand why we want him in the party though, since this is his era and he likely gets bonuses from it. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 11:12 Oatsmaster wrote: Do you(everybody) agree with my proposed party? Why would you not take Dieno? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On November 25 2012 11:24 Acrofales wrote: To be fair, I don't know that I will screw up our chances of winning the event, but I'd rather not risk it. Are you saying you know that you have a low success modifier as well? | ||
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