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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXI - Page 52

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
November 30 2012 00:54 GMT
#1021
On November 30 2012 09:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah CC seems town


Lol what?
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 30 2012 00:54 GMT
#1022
I am going now, I dont know if I can get on before lynch.
No gg, No skill.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
November 30 2012 00:56 GMT
#1023
Wait really? Aqua? Just because of the lynch timeline?
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
November 30 2012 00:58 GMT
#1024
Lol just refreshed. Now I'm town, Oat wtf??? Give me a few reasons I should make this case and not lynch you? Hell, if you're willing to vote Aqua, you make a case with me.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 30 2012 00:58 GMT
#1025
Yes it looks like I'm throwing shit around and seeing what sticks, but there is NO REASON for scum CC to push another lynch
No gg, No skill.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
November 30 2012 00:59 GMT
#1026
On November 30 2012 09:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yes it looks like I'm throwing shit around and seeing what sticks, but there is NO REASON for scum CC to push another lynch


At least you're honest.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
November 30 2012 00:59 GMT
#1027
On November 30 2012 09:53 Oatsmaster wrote:
Again, saying who is there at Lylo IS WAY TOO early.
there are still 6 town alive. Not even close to Lylo.

It's closer than you think. 6 town/2 mafia now means that we have two lynches left to get one scum or else we lose, assuming the mafia kill someone every night.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
November 30 2012 01:02 GMT
#1028
On November 30 2012 09:51 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
I believe that's what starting a wagon means, sir. I still have no fucking clue about this Oats blue claim or whatnot, but Aqua is shady as fuck.

##Unvote
##Vote: Aqua




It just seemed rather weird after having read your recent opinion on Oats.

I really don't know. The only thing scummy about Aqua so far is that... well, his activity level wouldn't be that hard for scum to pull off without coming off as scum.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 30 2012 01:05 GMT
#1029
On November 30 2012 06:13 Aquanim wrote:
I can't see us having more than two power roles, and (probably) not less than two either. If they all claim, and we ended up with three including Oats that would be an effective counterclaim. Having all the PRs claim seems pretty ridiculous though, and I don't think it's worth it.

I can't distinguish anything Oats has done since my vote between "oh crap, I'm doctor about to be lynched" and "oh crap, I'm scum about to be lynched". I reckon his posting quality has improved maybe a little, but that doesn't tell me anything. And claiming doctor and a protect on SDM is about as obvious and easy a fake-claim as claiming VT, esp. without a crumb.

Dammit! If you're a doctor, I'm really sorry, but I just. can't. tell. And I still have no better reads, and I still think this read won't improve.

Vote sticks. I have 5 minutes before I have to leave, and I won't be back before lynch. In the event of a massclaim, which I do not endorse, it may be possible for me to leave a message with someone and have them post it.


I really dont like this post..
It doesnt say ANYTHING at all.

On November 29 2012 20:21 Aquanim wrote:

<snip>


As for Oatsmaster, I just don't like how uselessly he's been posting, and he keeps wriggling out of giving cases... he made one on HeloKnight and darted out from under it at the first opportunity, and I don't think he's given much else which I found sensible.

He's marginally my best scum read, and the concept of MyLo or LyLo with him in the game just makes me sick. Everyone else I think I might be able to improve my read of with more posts and more reading, but this read on Oats is about as confident as I'm ever going to be on him. When we get down to "get this right or lose" I want people I at least *think* I can read.


So i go from marginally best scum read to only scum read? Bad reason to lynch.
No gg, No skill.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
November 30 2012 01:06 GMT
#1030
Buy one case, get two free: the Oatsmaster special.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 30 2012 01:13 GMT
#1031
So Helo, vote for aqua?
If you are town, we dont mislynch me.
If you are scum, you are not part of mislynching me.
WIN-WIN
No gg, No skill.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
November 30 2012 01:15 GMT
#1032
Okay so, a hasty as shit case on Aqua

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 26 2012 17:35 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 26 2012 17:01 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On November 26 2012 16:49 Aquanim wrote:
Hello everyone, I'm back.

For now:

##Vote: Munk-E

I require more posts from Munk-E to make any kind of a read on him. Post some more stuff Munk-E, look for scum (somewhere other than in Oatsmaster's early contributions, there's plenty more to read now).
If your posts have new content this vote will disappear.


Aqua, that's all you got after all this discussion?


It is not. (Apologies, this took a while to write, and yes, I was aware of the hypocrisy.)

tl;dr: I believe Kickstart is scum.

Kickstart's First Post

Kickstart's first post was completely contentless. Some rambling about a previous game he's played, just filling space, and the same jab at Oatsmaster that pretty much every other player made. SDM and Jacob had the same material to work with and gave some sensible analysis.

And then, after four hours of lurking...

DING DING DING DING DING

...Kickstart jumps on Oatsmaster's CC vote.

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 21:27 Kickstart wrote:
First off your format for your vote is wrong, secondly saying you are "intensely serious" is not a case on cheesecake. Frankly this is ridiculous and so anti-town so far that if it continues I don't think we should keep you around because this is either scum play or bad town play. The beginning of your filter is all fluff, which isn't that big of a deal since it is the start of the game and I don't really expect anything amazing from anyone, but then you post:
On November 25 2012 13:23 Oatsmaster wrote:
I got a scum feeling from cheesecake with his first 2 posts, I suggest we lynch him

On November 25 2012 13:46 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im seriously not sarcastic.
Seriously.
Its a feeling, I cant base it off anything though :/

I already told you before, if you are suspicious of someone you need to make a better post than that, you need to make a case against the person providing reasons for why they are suspicious.

Then there is this:
On November 25 2012 13:53 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah, also the worst decision to do 1 for 1 trades.
think about it if I'm scum, why would I randomly single out cheesecake? why did I even post? so far this game is so slow and as scum, they want it that way.


Why would you bring up "think about if I was scum", that is not a town mindset. Scum are the ones who would say something like that, all town needs to do is let their actions show that they are being pro-town, and so far you arent.

And then the final straw for me so far is this:
On November 25 2012 18:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
yeah that was kinda extreme and was said to provoke a reaction. Which kinda worked :D
Nothing personal Cheesecake, I think you got extremely screwed by misunderstandings the last game

On November 25 2012 21:12 Oatsmaster wrote:
I probably cant be around during lynch but I will try to be there a few hours before.
Vote: Cheesecake
I am intensely serious.
Munk-e and Jacob, where did you go?


So you say yeah ok me saying cheese is scum without providing any reasoning is a bit extreme, THEN YOU DO IT ANYWAYS????? This is unacceptable.

I suggest you start making some real cases, untill then:

##vote: Oatsmaster


Kickstart claims Oatsmaster's vote is "anti-town", or "if it continues I don't think we should keep you around because this is either scum play or bad town play". How in the hell is voting for your top scum read anti town? Especially when the thread has stagnated. Also, trying to remove guilt from himself if/when Oats flips town ("I told you guys he might be bad town anyway, remember?")
I'll grant you Oatsmaster is not playing cautious obv-town, but I don't really see anything he's done as being exceptionally scum motivated. What kind of newbie scum randomly tunnels someone within their first three posts?
For reference, a post about Oatsmaster which meets with more of my approval is HeloKnight's return #246. Sure, it's not entirely original, but at least he's making an effort. HeloKnight is LOOKING FOR SCUMINESS in Oatsmaster with this post, not saying "Take your vote off Cheesecake because it's bad."

Kickstart's subsquent posts don't inspire a lot of town feeling in me either. Next were some short postsposts, which seem to be more about defending Cheesecake than looking for Oats scum.

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 22:02 Kickstart wrote:
This is stupid btw, we should be scumhunting. If you are going to vote someone, you need to show why you think they are scum. I showed why your posting so far and your vote is crap, and you have still refused to make a case or provide adequate reasoning for your vote. We need to be finding scum - so do it and stop wasting time.

With that I will ask again: Can you give us a reason why you think Cheese is scummy and why you voted for him?

"This is stupid btw, we should be scumhunting." Do as I say, not as I do? None of Kickstart's posts are about Oatsmaster being scum, just about Oatsmaster being bad (specifically, his vote on Cheese being bad).

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 22:40 Kickstart wrote:
You two seem to be agreeing that you don't think Oats is scum. Can you explain his vote onto cheese then, because he apparently can't provide a decent explanation for it himself.

How is throwing a random vote onto someone without giving any sort of decent explanation town play? All Oats' vote has done is sow confusion because of how pointless it seems to be - which is scummy. Now if you have actual reasons to vote for someone, and present them to everyone, then discussion can flow from it and we can better assess everyone and get some reads going - but as I said you didn't provide that so have only managed to cause confusion.

So aside from waiting for a decent explanation from Oats, I would like for some other people to actually get involved in the thread, so far discussion has been between a few people and on not a very broad spectrum of topics, neither of which is good for town at this point.


GUYS
GUYS
WHY ARE YOU NOT PUSHING MY MISLYNCH WAGON FOR ME
GUYS

And then there was some more defence of Cheesecake.

Show nested quote +
On November 26 2012 06:09 Kickstart wrote:
Lol wow I missed that post from yama, glad you pointed it out SDM because yeah it is suspicious.

@ Yamato77
You saying Cheese doesn't read town is nice and all, but I am more interested (as I think SDM has said (and you better not accuse me of what you accused cheese of SDM!)) in if you read him as scum. Do you have any scum reads at all? As far as I can tell you are just saying you are suspicious of cheese because he said he was suspicious of you....

Pretty opportunistic poke at yamato, but doesn't lose sight of his main goal - defend the cheesecake!

Kickstart also pokes lurkers a lot - easy to do as scum or town. No judgement here.

Conclusion: Everyone else commented on Oatsmaster's read and vote based on how they reflected on Oatsmaster. Kickstart appears to be placing a much greater emphasis on how a vote for Cheesecake is bad. In particular, I believe Kickstart was the only one who wanted Oatsmaster to take his CC vote back (which doesn't make any sense, what's done is done and Oatsmaster will just take more flak if he does). Besides Oatsmaster, Kickstart hasn't looked for scum anywhere else at all, and I don't think his scumhunting on Oatsmaster is genuine. His only priority appears to be defending Cheesecake.

There are three possibilities:

(1) Kickstart is scum, knows Mr. Cheesecake is town and is white-knighting him. A lot.
(2) Kickstart and Mr. Cheesecake are both scum and Kickstart is defending his scumbuddy.
(3) Kickstart is town, has a town read on Mr. Cheesecake (correct or not) and for some reason feels the need to defend him vehemently against all attacks, in lieu of any actual search for scum.

I don't buy (3), and so

##Vote: Kickstart


The Kickstart case in a summary: He attacks Oats (not scummy), and he defends me. This case relies waaaaay too heavily on him defending me. What other reason does he have, seriously? Especially after how scummy oats/yamato were being D1.

Then, what I like to call "The Exodus of the Munk Votes" brought to you by Aqua:

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 27 2012 21:41 Aquanim wrote:
The Munk-E Lynch - How It Went Down

(Votecounts in the spoilers.)

26th November

(Before this is Oatsmaster's CC vote and Kickstart's Oats vote.)
[4:59] SDM FoS's Cheesecake, makes case largely based on meta.
[5:01] SDM votes Cheesecake.
[5:18] Munk-E appears in thread with useless post.
[6:18] Munk-E makes a less useless post on Oatsmaster.
[6:58] Having obtained a meaningful post from HeloKnight, CC un-FoS's him and Cheesecake votes Yamato.
[7:02] SDM unvotes Cheesecake. SDM votes Yamato.

+ Show Spoiler +
Votecount:

Mr. Cheesecake(1): Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster(1): Kickstart
Yamato77(2): Mr. Cheesecake, Sonic Death Monkey


[9:22] HeloKnight analyses Munk-E's (short) filter. HeloKnight votes Munk-E.
[16:49] Aquanim votes Munk-E.
[17:35] Aquanim makes Kickstart case. Aquanim votes Kickstart.
[23:10] Yamato makes a long defensive post and gives his reads.
[23:14] SDM summarises current cases.

27th November

[0:09] Kickstart makes an angry counter-post to case against him.
[0:15] SDM votes Munk-E.

+ Show Spoiler +
Votecount:

Mr. Cheesecake (1): Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster(1): Kickstart
Yamato77 (1): Mr. Cheesecake
Munk-E(2): HeloKnight,Sonic Death Monkey
Kickstart(1): Aquanim


[0:38] Kickstart posts his reads.
[0:39] Yamato votes Munk-E.
[2:13] Jacob votes Yamato.
[2:16] Cheesecake analyses Yamato further, and expresses the opinion that he "feels like this Munk-E lynch is an easy way for scum to secure a mislynch". Likes Helo, feels Oats isn't doing much.
[5:51] Munk-E makes a post on Yamato. Munk-E votes Yamato.
[6:04] Kickstart is satisfied with Munk-E. Kickstart unvotes Oatsmaster. Kickstart votes Yamato.
[6:11] Aquanim leaves vote on Kickstart and leaves.
[6:33] HeloKnight posts on Munk-E, is not convinced.
[7:19] Yamato rants at Munk-E.

+ Show Spoiler +
Votecount:

Mr. Cheesecake (1): Oatsmaster
Yamato77 (4): Mr. Cheesecake, Kickstart, Jacob, Munk-E
Munk-E (3): HeloKnight, Sonic Death Monkey, Yamato77
Kickstart(1): Aquanim


[7:25] Mr. Cheesecake votes Kickstart.
[7:47] Mr. Cheesecake unvotes Kickstart.
[7:51] Oatsmaster votes Kickstart.
[8:40] Mr. Cheesecake votes Munk-E and leaves. Justifies his switch by saying he thinks lynching a town Munk-E would be better than lynching a town Yamato.
[8:40 - 8:55] Jacob and Yamato discuss Yamato's play.
[10:10] Debears is modkilled.

+ Show Spoiler +
Votecount:

Yamato77 (3): Kickstart, Jacob, Munk-E
Munk-E (4): HeloKnight, Sonic Death Monkey, Yamato77, Mr. Cheesecake
Kickstart(2): Aquanim, Oatsmaster


[10:11] Jacob claims he "can't vote for Yamato with the votes like this". Jacob votes Munk-E.
[10:17] Oatsmaster and Kickstart going at it again.
[10:52] HeloKnight posts about Munk-E again.
[11:25] Oatsmaster approves of Kickstart's "vitriol and fire" play. Oatsmaster unvotes Kickstart. Oatsmaster votes Munk-E.

+ Show Spoiler +
Votecount:

Yamato77 (1): Kickstart, Munk-E
Munk-E (6): HeloKnight, Sonic Death Monkey, Yamato77, Mr. Cheesecake, Jacob, Oatsmaster
Kickstart(1): Aquanim


[11:35] Munk-E makes a pretty bad final plea.
[11:36] HeloKnight becomes a little more conciliatory about Munk-E's play, but doesn't want to lynch Yamato.

... and nothing more of importance until Munk-E flips VT at 12. At least he wasn't blue, I guess.



So, what's to be learned from this?

One question is: what happened to the Yamato lynch? Up until four hours before lynch Yamato was leading Munk-E in the lynch stakes.

@everyone who switched from Yamato to Munk-E (in other words, everyone except Kickstart): Why did you switch?
And for that matter, Kickstart, why didn't you switch?


Also of note: HeloKnight made the original case on Munk-E, and pushed it pretty hard except at the end (when a Munk-E lynch was pretty much a lock):

Show nested quote +
On November 27 2012 11:36 HeloKnight wrote:
Okay, I still think it's a little suspicious that your top read also happened to be the wagon of the time, but I'll drop that point because a townie would go after their top scum read.
I still don't want to lynch yamato today. I'm trying to not "white knight" him and to keep my mind open to him as scum, but I'm leaning pretty hard towards a newbie town feel right now.


Trying to make himself look a little better for when Munk-E flips green, and keeping his options open on yamato?

Looking through HeloKnight's filter I don't see much scumhunting substance besides his Munk-E case and an earlier, inconclusive post on Oatsmaster (and let's face it, a case on a lurker with two posts isn't exactly difficult to concoct). I'd appreciate other people looking through HeloKnight's posts and giving your opinion.


This post is the scummiest thing ever. Spreads suspicion on everyone that isn't himself and asks a ton of questions that he never follows up on. What the hell is the Town motivation for this post?

Playing neutral as all fuck:
On November 26 2012 18:42 Aquanim wrote:
In reference to the Yamato case, this post has been coming up:
Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 14:16 yamato77 wrote:
Still feel uneasy about me?

When I saw this post originally, I thought the same thing that I've been seeing in your reads - that it seems like anxious scum.
This was in reference to a post I made which (among other things) said I was uneasy about yamato. However, yamato (and CC) had posted since my last refresh and I then posted that I'd been ninja-d a lot. I can well believe that yamato might have thought I'd made the second post because my uneasiness about him had been nullified.

Could well still be scum paranoia, but there's a reasonable innocent explanation too.

I'm still thinking about the rest of the case.


On November 25 2012 14:57 Aquanim wrote:
Sure, he's made all of four five posts so far so don't expect anything insightful.

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 14:04 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
On November 25 2012 12:00 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yes totally agree with Cheesecake.
only 5/9 are here, where are the rest


On November 25 2012 13:23 Oatsmaster wrote:
I got a scum feeling from cheesecake with his first 2 posts, I suggest we lynch him


I really don't understand where your trepidations are coming from. You agree with me, but get scummy feelings from me?


I'm not liking this. In the first quote Cheesecake took, Oatsmaster is agreeing with this post:

Show nested quote +
On November 25 2012 11:55 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
On November 25 2012 11:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
I think that accurate day 1 reads are difficult to make due to the low sample size and if we lynch the lurkers, everyone has to contribute which will help in making more accurate reads.


Pretty obvious statement if you ask me. We just need to possess the confidence to scumhunt effectively. There is a 48 hour window between now and lynch time, so there is no reason anyone should be lurking. If we have to lynch a lurker, meh, but I'd much rather have this "small sample size" inflated within D1 so we aren't forced down the coin flip road.

Anyone else around?


which is pretty generically town-speech stuff from Mr. Cheesecake. I could well see Oatsmaster agreeing with the body of this message, BUT not liking the fact that Cheesecake is making speeches rather than poking people and looking for scum. (I'm taking a wild guess at what Oatsmaster's feeling was based on here.)

And apart from Cheesecake's questions in his first post and contentless sniping at Oatsmaster since that's all there is.


On November 27 2012 06:11 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 27 2012 00:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
@Aqua
I expressed why I wasn't entirely convinced about your Kick case here. If you're convinced he's scum, can you explain why you don't share those concerns?


Kickstart's defence of Cheesecake wasn't limited to Oatsmaster's case - iirc he poked at the use of meta in your CC case, too. The combination of these two, and the lack of serious posting on any other topics really, is what's setting me off. I'm not quite as convinced as I was last night, but I certainly don't have any better reads.

Show nested quote +
On November 26 2012 22:02 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@Aqua

Do you REALLY think Yamato has more insightful posts than Helo? Helo was playing neutral, sure, but at least he had the audacity to come up with an original case on Munk with the little posts he had. Imo he's showing way more initiative than this Yamato fellow.

Not sure I've read the case in detail, but with the natural suspiciousness on someone with two posts total it's not hard to make some kind of convincing case. I'm not saying Yamato is TELLING us anything more useful, but I just get the feeling that his posts are probing people a little more. Asking more interesting questions. It's a vague feeling though.

My vote stays on Kickstart... I'm beginning to see how he might do this as town, but I still think that what he's been posting would look awfully tempting as mafia. I think I might be missing something about Yamato that you are all seeing, but I don't have time to look at all of his posts in context right now. I'm not comfortable leaving a vote on Munk-E when his filter (and the substantiation of any reads on him) could quadruple in size.

Kickstart, if you're town, I expect serious and active scumhunting from you in the future.

See you on the other side.


Also: WHY THE FUCK DO YOU WANT TO KEEP YOUR VOTE ON KICK?!?! Town would weigh in on the discussion at hand: Yamato versus Munk. Not keep their vote somewhere useless. You don't give a shit who is lynched.

The only other thing Aqua has done this game is push an Oats lynch, which is EZ as FK to do at this point in time. I've seen very little original thinking from him.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
November 30 2012 01:15 GMT
#1033
On November 30 2012 10:06 HeloKnight wrote:
Buy one case, get two free: the Oatsmaster special.


I lol'd
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
November 30 2012 01:17 GMT
#1034
Ok back sorry something came up... Do we take the gamble? Because there is another scum in the mix if we don't vote for oats. (assuming he is scum) And nobody has a problem voting oats. (until now) which to me gave me the idea scum were on board. This is the same thing I felt but ignored with munk-e.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
November 30 2012 01:19 GMT
#1035
Vote count?
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 30 2012 01:20 GMT
#1036
Actually any decent scum partner will be bussing the hell out of me right now if I am scum, please do not use that as a reason to unvote me.
No gg, No skill.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
November 30 2012 01:20 GMT
#1037
actually I think the votes are
5 on oats and
2 on aqua
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
November 30 2012 01:21 GMT
#1038
On November 30 2012 10:20 Oatsmaster wrote:
Actually any decent scum partner will be bussing the hell out of me right now if I am scum, please do not use that as a reason to unvote me.


True.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
November 30 2012 01:23 GMT
#1039
*Going though aqua's filter*
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
November 30 2012 01:24 GMT
#1040
Why do you think that the Munk-E timeline was scummy? He gave some pretty useful information by putting the timeline out there, which could have been done by scum, but then he asks a question to everyone about their intentions in switching their votes. I don't see that as scumhunting instead of spreading suspicion. The only person I see him spreading suspicion on with that post is me.
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