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On November 21 2012 13:42 iamperfection wrote:
i think djo is town
and im gonna say s&b and dp in that order is the way to go.
@ iamp
I would prefer that we lynch DP first so this game could end faster. I'll review S&B again but I would like your comments about my case against DP please...
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On November 21 2012 15:10 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 14:45 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 14:15 DarthPunk wrote:
also his vote was parked uselessly day one on the wagon scum were pushing. i.e. ME. @ DarthPunkDo you plan to write a meta case against me or you don't think it is necessary ? I personally don't use meta but you do so I would appreciate to see what you can bring against me. Here are the links for my previous games. @ DarthPunkWell, it's not a big deal for me because I know I am town and my whole setup speculation setup ordeal should have been able to solve us the game without scumhunting. I'm sorry if I have preferred a pure logical way to solve this game to the hard way (i.e. going through >150 pages of posts). I'm pretty sure that the last scum would be forced to concede right now if we could have one or two more confirmed townies. It has turned out to backfire at me because debears had most likely a check on Hopeless who is already confirmed by the setup. But it makes me an easy target, so I've been very wary of the fact that you came after me knowing for sure that I was scum. My case on you stands and you didn't address it yet. So, yes, I'm tunneling you. Also, at the exception of the lack of scumhunting, which I gave a reason for, do you see any point that I didn't address correctly in your case ? You seem to be under the impression that this is not a big deal. That is false. It is a huge scum tell. And I may look at your meta if I have the time but whatever I find will not change the fact that you did not scum hunt at all until prompted and you are now tunnelling the guy accusing you.
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WTF ? My post has been lost...
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My bad, I found it back...
@ DarthPunk
Well, it's not a big deal for me because I know I am town and my whole setup speculation setup ordeal should have been able to solve us the game without scumhunting. I'm sorry if I have preferred a pure logical way to solve this game to the hard way (i.e. going through >150 pages of posts). I'm pretty sure that the last scum would be forced to concede right now if we could have one or two more confirmed townies. It has turned out to backfire at me because debears had most likely a check on Hopeless who is already confirmed by the setup.
But it makes me an easy target, so I've been very wary of the fact that you came after me knowing for sure that I was scum. My case on you stands and you didn't address it yet. So, yes, I'm tunneling you.
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On November 21 2012 16:23 Blazinghand wrote:
The problem with your setup speculation garbage, and this was always clear to me, is that the only guy who knows when he should claim is the blue himself. debears didn't have any results worth talking about so he didn't claim. Yeah he got shot so it's irrelevant but what if he wasn't gonna get shot and you outed him with some terrible mass VT claim and he was like "yeah guys sorry i don't have any results" or something?
The point is you can't just rely on the setup to win you the game, and it doesn't matter if you claim you think the setup was going to win the game. We're playing mafia, and mafia isn't about... whatever your pages and pages of letters were about. But the thing is, even if you DID post all that, that's not really a problem if you were also playing the damn game. But you weren't. Like SnB, you were just tunneling without engaging in the town discourse, and so you can see how it's hard for people to make townreads on you.
I like Clarity but I don't know how he could think you're town. We're lynching SnB first, but only just.
Yeah, I admitted the fact that he should have been the blues decision. If he wasn't going to get shot, he would at least have brought us one green check. I didn't think that he was going to get shot, I was expecting Hopeless to get shot.
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On November 21 2012 17:31 DarthPunk wrote:
Blazinghand. I am super afraid if you die tonight I won't be able to lynch Djo if S&B flips green. Like. It is super obvious he is scum to me. I would really like to lynch him and then maybe S&B.
I understand that you want to keep S&B for your last mislynch. I would do the same if I was scum.
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On November 21 2012 17:36 Blazinghand wrote:
though DP claims to think of SnB as green so I wonder how a scum DP would get around that at MYLO
Well, if I'm correct then let me see...
Kickstart would do the job for him I think...
You just need one town player to be wrong, right ?
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It's not the biggest part of my case. Its what made me realize that you had potential to be the last scum. The difference between you and me is how sure you are of your read on me.
Honestly told, at the moment, you are the scummiest but I have been wrong about BH for all game long so I want to take all the possibilities into account first.
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On November 20 2012 22:53 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2012 22:47 Clarity_nl wrote:
So do you believe snb is town? If so please explain why. Because if Djo is most likely scum and I'm 2nd most likely that means snb is town, right? Yes I think he is town. Reason 1 meta. This isn't the S&B I rolled scum with Previously. Reason 2. He has actually contributed reads and cases. Finally it is my gut instinct because I doubt scum S&B would play this way as scum even if he has shifted his meta.
Could you elaborate on your town read on S&B ?
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On November 21 2012 18:02 DarthPunk wrote:
At least I have a town read on S&B. He has been saying S&B is sooooo scummy we shouldn't leave him till last, then he lets clarity get lynched and now wants to lynch me first. I have a town read on S&B that is why I don;t want to lynch him.
Djo has a ? read on S&B and is being incredibly wishy-washy about actually lynching him.
I didn't let Clarity get lynched. I was checking the thread with my phone for possible last minute counter bandwagon. I would hope to have one against you and I honestly don't know what I would have done if I had the opportunity to hammer S&B. The "consolidation" of Kickstart was a bad move in my opinion.
Actually, right now, I'm not sure of who could be the last scum, and I would like you to give me some time to check what people have said of Clarity. I want to understand how this mislynch happened first and then re-evaluate my reads (and I mean even Kickstart and Iamp).
I'm thinking that you are the last scum right now, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. I'll put enough work to present good cases (be it town cases or scum cases) so we can find the truth together.
You might still be town, and I would appreciate you to get off your train and remove your confirmation bias goggles because I assure you that I'm going to flip green in you manage push your lynch on me.
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On November 21 2012 19:12 Blazinghand wrote:
djodref just try to get it done inside the next 12 hours or else i likely won't be able to respond to it
Yeah, I should be able to do it...
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On November 21 2012 19:14 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 19:11 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 18:02 DarthPunk wrote:
At least I have a town read on S&B. He has been saying S&B is sooooo scummy we shouldn't leave him till last, then he lets clarity get lynched and now wants to lynch me first. I have a town read on S&B that is why I don;t want to lynch him.
Djo has a ? read on S&B and is being incredibly wishy-washy about actually lynching him. I didn't let Clarity get lynched. I was checking the thread with my phone for possible last minute counter bandwagon. I would hope to have one against you and I honestly don't know what I would have done if I had the opportunity to hammer S&B. The "consolidation" of Kickstart was a bad move in my opinion. Actually, right now, I'm not sure of who could be the last scum, and I would like you to give me some time to check what people have said of Clarity. I want to understand how this mislynch happened first and then re-evaluate my reads (and I mean even Kickstart and Iamp). I'm thinking that you are the last scum right now, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. I'll put enough work to present good cases (be it town cases or scum cases) so we can find the truth together. You might still be town, and I would appreciate you to get off your train and remove your confirmation bias goggles because I assure you that I'm going to flip green in you manage push your lynch on me. Cool story bro.
Have you ever considered the fact that we could be both town ?
Give me some time to check how the Clarity mislynched went out and I should be able to come back with more certainty.
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On November 21 2012 19:35 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 19:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Ok, seeing as no one is talking all that much I am out. Hopefully we can get a load of info in the thread an hour before deadline. why not now? scum's shoot me anyways
Yeah, I think you are right, given Hopeless level of participation, you are more likely to be NKed tonight.
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@ BH
If we ever get to MYLO, it is always preferable to vote for a no-lynch and wait for LYLO or are they some situations where it's better to lynch at MYLO ?
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On November 21 2012 19:41 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 19:39 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 19:35 Blazinghand wrote:On November 21 2012 19:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Ok, seeing as no one is talking all that much I am out. Hopefully we can get a load of info in the thread an hour before deadline. why not now? scum's shoot me anyways Yeah, I think you are right, given Hopeless level of participation, you are more likely to be NKed tonight. He says as he sends in his night action.
Could you get off my back for a minute ? This is pissing me off and I would like to stay rational right now...
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.
@ S&B
Why did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ?
Could you explain your motivation for it ?
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@ S&B
We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ?
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On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ? why the hell wouldn't I? so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment. The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being " an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being " misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion.
@ S&B
So, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ?
"Big plays" 
That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment.
I don't understand the town motivation for it...
Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you.
Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment.
The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ?
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On November 21 2012 22:49 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:42 Djodref wrote:
@ S&B
We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ? in a word: intermittently. It depends on work. Djodref: right now, do you think I'm scum, and why? If it's because I've been more active when I'm under pressure, which seems to be the popular reason these days, can you tell me why that is a characteristic trait of scum and not of town, especially in the light of my town philosophy which I've posted above (and which I've consistently advocated across many games) ?
@ S&B
Right now, I think you are town.
Mainly because we have followed the same approach for this game. I believed that BH was scum and you were suspicious of him before me.
I wanted to solve the game with setup extrapolation, and you believed in it too. I was really happy when I saw you posting combinations and combinations of letters because everyone else was not really enthusiastic about it. It's difficult for me to believe that a scum player would participate to this setup extrapolation. At best, we could have get BH right away, or something like 5 confirmed townies and it would have been the end of the game.
Regarding the pressure thing, I'm also in the same case. I didn't want to scumhunt in a traditional way because I really believe I didn't need to, and it's really time-consuming with the thread that we have and even boring when you know that a more beautiful and easier solution is available. I was a fool...
But still, there are some things like the interaction you had with Hapa, the fact that you are not present for the lynches especially when you were close to be lynched yourself. These things, I'm wary of. So I wanted to take a close look at Clarity lynch first. Didn't have time yet but I really want to consider everything carefully. Even iamp and Kickstart again.
But right now, DP is the last scum for me.
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On November 21 2012 23:04 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 22:56 Djodref wrote:On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.I go through my filter and look at stuff. On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post
##vote: hapahauli
im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early. In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.
<big snip>
On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule
debears is scum tho
in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.
I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm
more reading time here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him. The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post: On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above
One last thing: On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......
Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....
When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it. So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread. this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad. @ S&BWhy did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ? Could you explain your motivation for it ? why the hell wouldn't I? so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment. The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being " an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being " misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion. @ S&BSo, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ? "Big plays" That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment. I don't understand the town motivation for it... Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you. Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment. The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ? my case on clarity wasn't just "that he was posting fluff" or "that he wasn't giving good reasons," it was that in his filter I got a consistent overall impression that he was doing things which would make him look townie without actually helping the town. It was based on my perception that he was being deceptive. Clearly, since he flipped town, I was wrong. But I don't think my case on him applies to me. It's true that I didn't actually help the town much during the first day, although as I explained, I think I was doing more than purely trolling (at least, in terms of my thought process). But I definitely wasn't trying to create a town-looking thread persona or deceive people into thinking that I was town.
@ S&B
I wanted to talk about the interactions with Hapa especially. I'll look it up myself but I don't remember if you were presenting this as a main point against him or not...
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