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On November 08 2012 13:26 mkfuba07 wrote:
I'm back. My vote was up in the air in the beginning, because I was pondering over possibly voting kush. I'll stick with draz for now, since now that I've got confirmation bias out of my system, I can't confirm my theory until one of them flips.
##Vote drazak
@Release: I think it's likely that someone with a kp who was roleblocked would be more inclined to report it, because then there's a roleblocker out there who knows you haven't told the truth.
But on that note, the fact that you appear to have not thought of that makes me think you're town.
Edit: saw I was ninja'd. Wanted to comment anyway.
On November 08 2012 16:02 mkfuba07 wrote:
I considered it, but I feel that scum wouldn't even consider saying what he did. As scum, I feel it would be my first reaction: "Can I just not claim? No, I have to claim, or someone will know I'm lying." As such, I would never consider it proof of innocence. I feel that he's wrong, and scum would never think to fake being wrong in that way. Does that make sense?
Fuba was the only one to support the case for my comment + Show Spoiler +On November 08 2012 13:10 Release wrote:
On a day on which no one dies, occam's razor says that those who have kill roles will not claim to be RBed. It would lead to that line of reasoning ,"no one dead, this guy RBed, this guy has killing role"
I don't see anything that my post actually shows except for my inability to play mafia well. It is not townie and i don't see why fuba should defend me like that.
@darthpunk What if Fuba is just the scum RB who claimed one-shot and isn't going to use his RB powers anymore?
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@ anyone else, feel free to comment on what you think about that comment
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He's talking in third person.
He's not particularly in my interest as i have been looking through fuba's filter, but i'll try to make a statement about hrawn soon
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On November 02 2012 13:41 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 13:30 Muso wrote:
Again, honestly I thought the masons would come to the right conclusion.
Reasoning for my claim:
1. Masons are powerful, and frequently underestimated in their value. If I were scum I would perceive them as a serious threat, probably more so than a cop in this setup.
In this setup the likelihood of mafia hitting town every night is at least >95% (aka not hitting a SK). Let's pretend it's 100% and let's pretend that nobody gets saved by a Doc. The result is 1 town death every night. As a citizen or vanilla townie as it's called here, it's my job to throw myself in the way of the mafia and convince them to use their kill on me because it buys the town power roles time. none of that has any relevance to fake claiming mason Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 13:30 Muso wrote:
2. The wealth of information and reads that are available from this train is enormous. I doubt anybody will disagree with the idea that we've gained a lot more information from today than we would have had we led a lynch on somebody based upon the minor scum hunting that occurred in the first half of today. Not to say that that stuff isn't valuable, just that this provides more definitive answers. Even if nobody is satisfied with my explanations and this does go through to a lynch, this point will remain true.
The true Mason reveal was regrettable and once again I do take the blame for that. So if you're saying that you did this to get information and reads, you do realize that if you're actually town, then you're the only person atm who can make those reads? If you did this as town, you've put yourself in a position where it's almost impossible to avoid getting lynched.... how does that help us makes reads based on people's reactions towards you until after we've seen your flip? I accept that townies can intentionally look scummy to make reads.... but the manner in which you supposedly did it and your explanations for what it would actually accomplish just don't make any sense. I want to see two things from you: 1) a clear a concise explanation of what exactly you were trying to accomplish by claiming mason 2) some reads
Such posts as these actually gets things done.
points for you
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Asking for others' opinions
On November 01 2012 10:50 thrawn2112 wrote:
kush you think release is scum or town?
On November 01 2012 23:35 thrawn2112 wrote:
risk, say something about release
On November 09 2012 07:50 thrawn2112 wrote:
anyone else here that wants to lynch release?
kush you can always change your vote if it doesn't work out
On November 03 2012 04:46 thrawn2112 wrote:
@prom
I'd like to hear you talk some more about muso. You said that you didn't want him lynched today but that he was a good vig shot... what are your actual opinions about him being town/scum?
On November 05 2012 05:30 thrawn2112 wrote:
Release, why do you think prom is the sk? Give your specific reasons.
There's a lot more of this.
On the one hand it makes things clearer (but most posts do). However, what i read from this is someone who doesn't have too good a feel of how town feels at a given moment in time and is scummy.
points away from you. In general (at least until page 5 of your filter) you've been very strong at logic and whatnot so I feel that if you were town, you wouldn't ask as many general questions.
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My guilt:
On November 07 2012 14:24 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:17 Release wrote:On November 07 2012 10:42 kushm4sta wrote:
@acro omg what if the mafia didn't kill anyone ON PURPOSE so that we couldn't get any more flavor information?? If i change my vote now, I will be "afraid to bus my scum buddy" or "too wish-washy" so i'll make use of FOS: kushYou are not town. Draz is scum. Consider yourself lucky. Do you actually want to change your vote? That's a perfect example of a post that makes me think you feel guilty.
and some other posts i don't want to find right now:
Yes it should make you feel that i feel guilty.
What I said is that my posts made me look guilty. I however, did not feel guilty. I felt annoyed.
I don't think it's too scummy not to care whether a scum or sk dies.
I honestly feel like this is another one of my "i am not good at mafia posts" and you seem to take a much less strong stance than fuba did my post.
points for you.
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some defense
On November 09 2012 07:41 thrawn2112 wrote:his inherent guilt all game his story in d3 doesn't add up - has 3 people that aren't drazak as top scumreads during N2 - because drazak doesn't show up for N2 deadline, releases makes drazak his top scumread - votes for kush even though draz was his top read after I questioned a weird FOS he made against kush wtf was that vigi claim. I NEED to see an explanation for why he did it. As everyone else demonstrated, it is not a "fake" crumb, it was done intentionally. but it was so well hidden, what town purpose could it server? me thinks it's a scum hiding fake claims didn't vote for hopeless innocent wabbit is a scum name - lol hopeless - this post - other than that no mention of release ever again in hopeless filter - he was roleblocked and we have missing night kills
Why would i bring up the vigi claim in the first place?
other parts have been answered.
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You seemed pretty focussed on a Risk/Kush/Me scum and SK.
But i think this is pretty null in terms of alignment.
SO overall, i feel that I can forgive your eliciting opinions from the town to gain a townie perspective (it is something townies want too, just something scum want more)
and you are probably not the last scum. (definitely less likely than Fuba)
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@DP
Acro RBs me.
DP jails Kush
Fuba RBs prome
Some acro logic: Fuba knows that Thrawn is town (or SK claim) so he is less likely to doubt the green check than town and town didn't doubt it too much. Kush is the confirmed green so it be best if he took a shot at Kush.
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about half an hour before i hit the hay
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Oh and risk probably went for kush because at that point in time:
Kush and I were the heavily suspected SKs and if Kush died, then I would be the next lynch.
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I didn't have anything important to say before the deadline but i must put one thing straight:
I am not porky pig.
I did hate the flavor theory from the very start but i thought that as a town, we could ignore it. For the most part, we did manage to avoid flavor theory although the two N1 kills were probably helped by the few claims of VT in day1.
I claimed to be porky pig in an attempt to silence the flavor theory once and for all so that we could focus on actually getting things done and forcing Kush to make actual reads instead of facetious fathoms about roles and names.
I had kept silent until the moment of my claim because i had still believed that Kush had been blue-hunting but that moment felt like the optimal moment to claim as porky pig.
I hope that you can all see that despite all of my bad play at mafia, this has been my contribution.
I am painted tunnel btw.
I did not breadcrumb earlier in the game because i never actually thought flavor theory would escalate in the way that it did.
MY only (shitty bc) was "i smell with my little nose a freshly painted tunnel"
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we have 48 hours until day ends.
Here's what i suggest we do until that time:
Keep your votes on me.
Go hunt as though i am not the scum and see what you come up with.
I'll do the same.
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he doesn't. He saying that if i get RB and a kill happens, i can't be the scum.
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On November 13 2012 08:23 kushm4sta wrote:
I still think release is scum. I'm just saying that the no kill means nothing.
On November 12 2012 09:36 Release wrote:
If I'm scum, ask DP to JK me.
If there is a kill, I am not scum.
If there is no kill, we have another day to hash things out.
(Yes, the scum might withhold a KP.)
Prome, do you read my posts or discard them as trash?
Actual question.
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No, that's not the point of that post.
My point is that Prome clearly didn't comprehend something that I already explained and required a second explanation from Kush. That's all.
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On November 13 2012 11:28 Promethelax wrote:
Yeah you do. So do the rest of us though.
Release, after the reaction to your fake claim why did you fake claim again? Porky Pig and Vig seems a little excessive. Why make it so that town could not trust you?
I'm still trying to make sense of Fuba's filter but
I never claimed vig. I was trying to take a shot away from blues by saying i was going to vig kush (whom i thought was a blue-hunting sk)
Porky pig was supposed to stop town from discussing so much flavor.
I doubt town ever trusted me anyways. I am easily the worst player, my case on acro was horrible, my conspiracy was horrible too.
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On November 13 2012 13:43 thrawn2112 wrote:
My thoughts haven't changed much. Prom = confirmed town ofc, I also think that kush and dp are town. I was wary of fuba but release has been on my radar all game, and his new name claim stuff is hard to believe. He said he originally claimed something else in order to silence the vt flavor discussion... I don't see how claiming a name that doesn't fit with the theory would make people talk less about the theory.
##Vote: Release
"Look! The Theory doesn't work. Better stop talking about it"
versus
"Hmmm. That fits. Let's try to figure out whose name fits the least"
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On November 13 2012 16:02 kushm4sta wrote:
@DP I don't get why we have to make cases now and not after the flip?? If there is a case it will still be there to be made after the flip.
don't make excuses. Just do it. It'll help the town. That should be your goal.
@prome
Fuba's filter is only 5 pages long but the first page is fucking dense.
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ok Page 1 done:
FUBA
On November 02 2012 02:59 mkfuba07 wrote:
Hi all! I forgot this was starting, and I just caught up.
About Release:
I don't think he's scum. He seems too involved and sincere to be scum. He might not say the best things at all times, but so far I have a slight town read on him. In any case, we seem to have moved passed him for the most part today.
As for Muso and Acrofales... this is an awkward situation. If there's only one mason pair (which looks to be most likely), I'm inclined to believe Acrofales over Muso. I find it more likely that Muso fakeclaimed mason before there were any claims, than Acrofales fakeclaiming mason after there was already a claim.
##Vote Muso
He's already buddying up to me. Note the lack of anything extreme:
"He might ..." instead of "is bad" and "slight..."
On November 02 2012 10:50 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2012 09:37 Muso wrote:
Okay.
I take full responsibility for this situation.
Admittedly, I didn't make any attempt to assess the experience levels of anybody here before I started this game, so this is undoubtedly my fault.
1) However, I banked on Acro and his teammate figuring this out instead of coming out and counter-claiming me. Pretty much everybody in the game determined the following:
1. this is a suicide play as scum
2. it is extremely unlikely there were 2 mason teams,
Unfortunately, the masons didn't make the next leap in the puzzle, and think outside the box to figure out WHY? Fair enough, I'm not blaming you.
I am Kid Watching TV, aka a vanilla.
2)The point of the gambit should be obvious now. 1) So your claim is that you were hoping the scum would assume you're telling the truth, and hoping the real masons, if they even existed, would know you're not a newbie scum. Even though you made it clear that you are a new player... What was your ultimate goal? 2) It's blatantly obvious why scum would claim mason (though risky in the event of another mason team actually existing). It's much less obvious why a townie would do so. I want to see what the "point of the gambit" was, but the way it stands, all you did is force one of our masons to claim. I... don't know what to think about this. It feels like a really noobish mistake that either town or scum could make. I see more motivation for scum, but for some reason I think he's more likely to be town...##Unvote MusoI don't really know who I want to lynch after him, though. I'll give more thought to it when I get home later.
Muso, too, is bad and a potential buddying target. He is quite indecisive here and i see the unvote as a testament to what can be seen in the bold.
On November 03 2012 05:45 mkfuba07 wrote:
Yeah, sry guys. I've been reading the thread for the last few hours, trying to figure out what I want to do...
I don't feel like voting for Muso. I actually have a slight town read on him. I really wouldn't mind a vig shot on him, though. There's a lot of mystery around him, and he's going to be on my mind for the rest of the game after this D1. A vig would save us the worry.
Looking through Draz's filter, I'm not really liking what I'm seeing. Most of his posts are one-liners that don't even really contribute to scumhunting. His posts seem like a lot of riling people up instead of true scumhunting. Then he gives himself an out for the rest of D1 by saying that it's too crazy to deal with and that he'll have better reads after the night post. Well of course he will - we should all have better reads after a flip. I think he has the best chance of flipping scum so far.
##Vote drazak
Muso is essentially in the same position that i am in but he votes for someone else, yet today, he instantly votes for me.
Concession: there is no other heavily suspected target today. But the amount of suspicion on drazak was significantly less than what was on Muso.
On November 03 2012 06:31 mkfuba07 wrote:
Ah, I see... That makes sense. Thx kush and drazak.
I'm feeling less and less sure of a drazak lynch since he's returned... And as much as I hate to admit it, kush's flavor theory is swaying me a bit. However, I don't know who I would vote for out of everyone else in the game. I think I'm being too liberal with town reads this game... In any case, it looks like muso is likely going to be lynched with or without me, and drazak is less and less likely to be lynched.
##Unvote
##Vote Muso
Ahhh, yet another wishy-washy D1 vote for fuba...
Drazak made one that was actually worth something(list post) but it definitely didn't warrant the bolded part.
He made that post along with other fluffy posts. Someone who was suspicious of Drazak on day 1 really didn't have any reason to stop being suspicious of him. (not voting for him ok, but still remain suspicious)
The voting is reasonable.
And the last line is pretty much as guilt-looking as I looked for some of my posts.
On November 04 2012 22:01 mkfuba07 wrote:
Hi all.
I'm terrible at hopping back into the thread. Is there anything in particular that you'd like me to comment on? If not I'll probably end up solo-analyzing filters and talking myself in circles, which doesn't help anyone XD
Wants direction from town and feels that he is weak at analyzing.
I have no idea how bad he is but he can't be worse than I, and his opinion is certainly worth something so is does help, but he excuses himself for not having to actually analyze.
On November 05 2012 00:15 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2012 02:47 DarthPunk wrote:I have a scum read on drazak. He has posted mainly one liners commenting on the by play of proceedings rather than bring any original thought or information to the thread. He has also been consistently wishy-washy in his posting. On November 02 2012 23:36 drazak wrote:
Yeah, I'm getting a bit fed up with Kush asking for everyone to claim everything, that smells a little scummy to me. Kind of not sure if it's just kush being stupid and trolling like usual (yes, I know, I'm omgusing, don't care) or if he's actually got a larger scheme here.
Kush has admited to me a bunch of times that he doesn't thinks before he posts, so I dunno, but he keeps being stupid I think we can chalk it up to stupidity/trolling, if he stops, it was probably a scheme.
I'm not sure what to think about prom, the case against him is ok, but maybe prplhz was distracted and/or confused. Like I was going to go through this post and bold the wishy-washy bits but then I may as well have bolded the entire post. Just read that and find one solid statement. Because I sure as hell can't. But note the part I have bolded and then read drazak's subsequent series of posts which stuck out to me quite starkly. He goes from wishy washy on kush. Saying he could be scummy. Then he posts his role name somewhat aggressively. On November 03 2012 05:53 drazak wrote:
Kush, do you even read my posts? Also, trying to write a long post in another window, hold on a bit. I'm a VT, Carrot, btw. After which kush thinks he is town based on his theory with the flavor immediatly after kush unvotes him and declares him to be town. Drazak posts his 'reads' On November 03 2012 06:07 drazak wrote:Release actually tried to scumhunt, I'm seeing town on him, even though he still wants to vote for me. I don't think he's done anything to cause confusion, and I think he really wants to find a mafia right now, which is what I'm trying to do. Mattchew is also looking town, although I'd like him to be a bit more active, I don't think he'd say that he likes his gut instincts D1 if he didn't believe in them and have somewhat decent evidence, less town than release but definitely a town read. Hope has about the right amount of defensiveness for a townie, he's gone to lurk mode around lynch time which makes me a little nervous, everyone else seems to be here and willing to talk except him. Not sure what he's up to but when he starts posting again I hope he has a good explaination, I'm neutral on him right now. Thrawn has been trying his damnedest to scumhunt for a D1 hunt, not sure what he thinks he might actually accomplish, but he's asking questions like I should be (but I don't because I suck  ) and trying to make things happen. I find him distinctly town at the moment. risk.nuke has not a lot to go on in his filter, and every single one of his comments is 1 line and most of them are fluffy. I think this is even worse than my posts have been. I find him 2nd scummiest after muso. Kush is just doing his fucking trolly ass shit. Town meta for him 100% Zealos doesn't vote anyone and isn't happy with Acro or Muso, not sure what to think here, he wants to vote two of my town reads, not sure I like this, but might just not be following that closely. First of all I hate lists such as these. They allow scum to seem to participate without actually doing anything. A few sentences on several players comprise drazak's 'reads' HOWEVER. Note the read on kush. He has gone from scummy and wishy-washy to 100% town meta. IMMEDIATELY after kush declares a town read on drazak. It seems as if Drazaks opinion of someones scumminess is linked to their opinion on draz. Now THAT is scummy to me. Combined with all the wishy-washy posting and fluff one liners. I would certainly like to lynch drazak. Snipped out the drazak portion. While I'm by no means certain of it (as I am rarely certain of anything), I'm back to thinking there's a strong chance that drazak will flip scum. I realized while considering this case that too often I immediately give people the benefit of the doubt. That being said, here's my analysis. Firstly, I don't see wishy-washiness as a very strong scum tell. This is because I am probably the wishy-washiest player who has ever played on TL and I've only rolled scum once. I understand that it is a scum tell for other people, but I just can't see it that way. That being said, the fact that drazak's read on kush seemed to change as a direct result of kush's read on drazak changing certainly feels scummy. I didn't feel a particular change in kush's play during that time. In addition, this recent post from him makes me feel like he thinks kush is scummy again, despite the fact that he said kush was 100% playing to his town meta: Show nested quote +On November 04 2012 22:03 drazak wrote:
so... we've got an sk for sure? No way that was a vig shot or something?
Hey kush, why did you bluehunt so hard, I'm not cool with that. Finally, what DP said about the "list of reads" posts are what made me realize what makes me so wishy-washy. On that point I was reading drazak's posts as a townie trying to avoid a mislynch without equally considering that it was scum trying to avoid a legitimate lynch. Given that everything I've previously mentioned about drazak's play still holds true imo, he's my top scumread at the moment.@DrazakWhat made you switch from "kush looks kinda scummy" to "kush is playing 100% to his town meta"? And do you now think kush is playing scummy again?
Now that Drazak is looking bad again (he never actually looked good tbh)
fuba excuses himself for ever considering Drazak as town and what used to make drazak look good now make drazak look bad.
I see a lack of a focussed train of thought here.
Bus begins here (-ish)
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EPT
