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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIX - Page 31

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Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 26 2012 18:35 GMT
#601
@Kush

I'm really curious about your thoughts on my case against Inig and debears case about Inig.
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
October 26 2012 18:47 GMT
#602
Vote Count!

If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.


Inigmaticalism (3) - Dandel Ion, da0ud, debears, Djodref
da0ud (2) - kushm4sta, Alsn
Djodref (1) - Mr. Cheesecake, Alsn
imcasey (1) - Inigmaticalism
Roco69 (0) - sylverfyre
Rad (0) - debears

Not Voting (5) - Rad, sylverfyre, imcasey, Roco69, Djodref

Currently, Inigmaticalism is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 5 hours and 15 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
sylverfyre
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8298 Posts
October 26 2012 19:04 GMT
#603
Inig, do you still insist on voting for imcasey?
sylverfyre
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8298 Posts
October 26 2012 19:14 GMT
#604
Going to sheepishly agree that da0ud is fitting the "Post a little bit" that mafia would theoretically want to do in order to evade getting pressure for lurking, but isn't bringing in a lot of information (his rebuttal against kush was not useless, though.) Meanwhile daoud goes for the "you're blending in" vote on ini. Huh.

Djo's been so damn active at defending himself, with relatively little aid that it's hard to keep the FOS up. I'm trying to continue my case against him though, will need a moment to reexamine things.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
October 26 2012 19:29 GMT
#605
I'm at work and my boss is here so I actually have to so stuff.
I will address stuff people want me to address later. I think get off work 1 hour before lynch.

@daoud in our last game for part of the game you were hiking the himalayen mountains or some shit. I don't buy your excuse.
are you 100% phone or do you also have computer access?
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
sylverfyre
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8298 Posts
October 26 2012 19:44 GMT
#606
On October 27 2012 03:03 Djodref wrote:
I'm going to bed right now (for real this time^^). I'll sleep for few hours then come back...

@ sylver

Could you please answer my previous questions ?

Show nested quote +
On October 26 2012 23:48 Djodref wrote:
On October 26 2012 23:33 sylverfyre wrote:
Day one but you want someone, who is ostensibly town, to have a better reason than "well his post seems kinda fishy" for an FOS?


@sylver

Are you saying that Alsn is ostensibly town ?
/snip.


Show nested quote +
On October 26 2012 23:14 Djodref wrote:
On October 26 2012 23:05 sylverfyre wrote:
Early on, Djo, I felt a contradiction from you based on a combination of you criticizing the lurker policy + calling out a lurker. More recently, you've switched gears a lot and been unsatisfied in defenses mounted against your case.

Finally just now claiming "not needing to consolidate" is fishy to me too. If we don't consolidate, we're going to have someone get lynched with like 3 votes, reducing scum's need to assist in the lynchwagon as well as improving scum ability to make sure one of their own cannot be lynched - so we're less likely to find scum today, but equally importantly, we would have less information later in the game (and could cause town to go rabid on itself) We want to consolidate.

I dunno if mods have more replacements lined up, I sure hope so. Having 3 playerdrops happen on day 1 is really depressing to me.


Why should scum assist the "lynchwagon" (it is bandwagon by the way) ? If we are going to lynch a scum today, don't you think that they are going to try to go against the bandwagon ?




@Rad

I cannot fully address your concern about "a townie should always be able to change his mind provided that the arguments presented are good enough".
Firstly, this statement is false. Stupid townie or stubborn townie are sometimes not going to change their minds.
Secondly, you have extrapolated a particular case to draw conclusions in a more general point of view. I think it's better to find the real motivation behind specific moves than to consider the big picture. But you are free to use the scumhunting style that fits you the best.



I'm saying that I don't read anything scummy on Alsn at this time. It's not a particularly strong read. I'm also saying "ostensibly town" because everyone is going to PRETEND to be town, if nothing else.

And scum don't want scum to get lynched day 1, so if there's a choice, they'll push people away from it. If there are 4 people, one of them scum (lets say we picked 4 random people) with 2 votes each against them, it's pretty easy to push the lynch away from one of their own. If people are consolidated into larger bandwagons (this kinda goes back to confidence) then it's harder to change a lynch result without looking suspicious.

Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
October 26 2012 19:46 GMT
#607
I really don't think we should lynch Djo today.
It's been said, but it doesn't hurt to repeat it: With how active he's being, his alignment will show sooner or later.
He might cut back on his posting pace, then that's scummy.
He might contradict himself and slip, that's scummy too.
Or he doesn't do any of those, which I hope will happen.

I understand that his play was scummy-ish at parts, but we can always come back on that. He also at least put effort into staying alive, which is something other people have not done, and frankly, right now, I'd let him live just based off that.


What I'd suggest now, with a bit more than 4 hours left into the day, is that people either:
a) decide between Inig and daoud - good arguments have been made for either.
or
b) if they want to lynch somebody else, present a good reason.

5 people have not even voted. That's actually a horrible position for us.
Inig has his vote absolutely USELESSLY parked on casey, for no reason.
Cheesecake, lynching Djo today is not a good idea. You should decide on somebody else.

Most important is actually that you do whatever you plan to do SOON. If everybody votes and voteswitches only in the hour before the lynch, it will be pure chaos. And I'd prefer to avoid chaos if possible.
A backwards poet writes inverse.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
October 26 2012 19:54 GMT
#608
Inig's posts have improved. Recently he has been sharing his thoughts like crazy.

The cases against him: I think these are examples of mistakes that newbie townie could easily make.

He is a null/town read atm. I don't want to lynch him. Consider this a soft defense.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
October 26 2012 19:59 GMT
#609
So this is daoud's reasoning for excusing the scumslip: even if djo was mafia he wouldn't know who town was because there's always the possibility that someone could be sk.

And that was enough to drop it completely? This is weak even for daoud reasoning.
I'm not saying the slip was a big deal, but daoud's reason for dropping it seems totally contrived.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
October 26 2012 20:04 GMT
#610
Was out eating with some friends but I just read through the last few developments and this will be my final post from me for today as I need to get some sleep soon.

From my point of view it seems like it's going to be Inig or da0ud today. For me I'm finding both of them slightly scummy but I'm not nearly convinced enough to stake anything on that fact. As such I'm going to stick with my da0ud vote for the reasons I stated earlier in the thread. If nothing else me sticking to him will at least give you all a choice as to who will be lynched(since Inig seems to be the popular choice atm, although only very slightly).

I'd urge all townies to pick one of the candidates and state your reasons for doing so well in time for the lynch just so that there is no possibility for scum to do any last minute vote switch funny business. In a hypothetical scenario of a 6-6 split or similar it's much too easy for a single scum to make up some last minute excuse about feeling uncertain in order to justify a vote switch and cause a mislynch. It's much better if any potential tie-breaker scenario plays out well in advance of the deadline so that there is less chance of confusion.

I'll try and check in before my test tomorrow, but if I don't wake up early enough I probably won't post until some time in the evening(~7-8 hours before the end of N1).
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
October 26 2012 20:06 GMT
#611
##Vote: Inigmaticalism

Inigmaticalism, I'm voting you to force you into changing your vote on imcasey. I want to see who you pick. I feel like your real vote will be extremely telling.

If you change your vote, I may or may not change mine, but I'm not satisfied with you sticking your vote on imcasey at this point. He hasn't said one thing and will likely be modkilled. If he comes in last second without any real input, he's obviously scum (or useless townie of course).
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
October 26 2012 20:08 GMT
#612
Oh and by the way, I'll be awake for another 15 minutes or so if someone wants me to answer something.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
October 26 2012 20:09 GMT
#613
I still plan on reviewing everything in about 2 hours when I get a chance. That should give me 2 hours before vote time to feel better about my final vote. I will likely keep my vote on Inig if he doesn't show up to change vote, but am open to change if I feel I'm convinced one way or the other once I've gotten a chance to research the issues more.
Inigmaticalism
Profile Joined May 2012
United States103 Posts
October 26 2012 20:30 GMT
#614
just read thread, popping in before I have my exam, and wont be back until its over, so like 2-3 hours right before lynch. I have no time now to defend myself from the cases against me, but plan to do so when I come back. Will probably be too late but thats how it is. I dont mind if I am lynched. It is bad for town cause Im town, but a lesser evil since Im no special role.
##unvote
I voted imcasey over oats(now kush) by pure chance. I picked one name because I only have 1 vote. It appears it was utterly useless, and now has weakened me. The reason I didnt straight out vote Dan is because 1 or more people voting right before deadline out of nowhere scares me, but presuring didnt work the way I did it. So now of course Ill
##Vote: Dandel Ion
Like I said I have no time to refute his case on me. I thought it was interesting how he reappeared right after I called him out, and then da0ud came out right after, but im not going to go off of times based on my own history. I also thought da0uds reasons to vote me were sad. If anyone can get any good scum-tell from him besides what was already said I would change and vote for him. See you in a few hours.
*And for goodness sake, if Djo is scum hes put himself in an extremely risky situation, but is also being super pro about it. I want to keep him alive and see what he can do with his energy for defending himself put to the use of more scum-hunting.
*and no more FOS this close to deadline. straight up vote.
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
October 26 2012 20:50 GMT
#615
Inig, you not voting da0uds is super interesting to me.

I feel like your safest vote to stay alive is da0uds. If you want to stay alive, you vote him.

Alternatively though, you may know that and realize if you vote da0uds you look bad.

Here are some interesting things about Inig:

1. He claimed vanilla townie in the past.
2. He was forced to make a vote here and he did not choose da0uds. Instead he chose Dan. Dan currently has no chance of being lynched today unless something crazy comes up, so the vote on Dan was worthless.
3. If he is indeed vanilla townie, and he does not quite trust his current reads on da0ud and dan, it would be the best town play to a) keep himself alive if possible (change vote from imcasey) and b) let others who are more well informed make the more educated vote. Voting for da0uds when he's really uncertain is just taking a chance, and da0uds is currently in second place to be lynched today, so there's a lot of pressure on Inig's vote (if he's town).

I had a null read on him before but it was extremely confusing one way or the other. With this I'm leaning townie for Inig. Anyone want to jump in and help analyze his decision here? I'm open to whatever thoughts people have and please help me if I'm making a WIFOM argument here.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
October 26 2012 20:52 GMT
#616
This is an example of a daoud post midway through last game:
On October 14 2012 15:58 da0ud wrote:
Sorry just caught up on the chat and am currently hiking close to china border so poor network.

One first thing on my vote against San is at the time as default choice between two people I found scummy.
I found more content on sand than on the lurker ON. And at the time I put my votes there was already 11 votes on san. I was following the crowd.
Overnight the defense of Sand got pretty intense and sure would I have shifted my votes towards ON, not that it would have made a difference anyway.
Even if it is not confirmed I am fairly sure Sand is town cause he put his votes on ON to go to the final which would not make sense for a scum to push another scum to face him in finals.
At this stage I am pretty sure as well mementoss is scum. I already put it as second scum read from the round of 4 but now put him as top read.


It will be pretty incomprehensible if you weren't in that game. But notice how freely he speaks his mind, even in difficult posting conditions.
His early game posts that game were happy, jokey, and pretty random.

OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
sylverfyre
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8298 Posts
October 26 2012 21:07 GMT
#617
So you're popping in, OMGUS vote on someone with no wagon, and pop back out? O_O I guess it's not jumping on the other bandwagon though.

But I do agree on not lynching Djo today.

I honestly don't have any good scum reads anymore. Maybe I spent too much time tunneling djo?

Kush's case for da0ud looks really strong. Reading over daouds filter one last time.

Evaded an important question by answering an unimportant one... weird reason for case against Djo... Talks about blending in while doing exactly that (not posting much + trying to blend in)

But he gives some great content pointing out some of the stuff, and is pretty confident in his Ini vote... I can't vote him.

I find it interesting that Ini is also sticking hard to his earlier hunch instead of trying to look closer at an already formed bandwagon... That seems on the unscummy side, but not conclusively.
sylverfyre
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8298 Posts
October 26 2012 21:15 GMT
#618
Dandel said Inig had his vote uselessly parked when Inig clearly said he'd vote dandel later. In bold.

I need to vote someone NOW. I have no idea what's going on. I don't have any good scum reads that I like acting on, all the arguments have holes... (which was Djo) so I'm gonna end up sheeping SOMEBODY whose arguments I like.

##Vote da0ud
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
October 26 2012 21:19 GMT
#619
Vote Count!

If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.


Inigmaticalism (4) - Dandel Ion, da0ud, debears, Rad, Djodref
da0ud (3) - kushm4sta, Alsn, sylverfyre
Djodref (1) - Mr. Cheesecake, Alsn
Dandel Ion (1) - Inigmaticalism
imcasey (0) - Inigmaticalism
Roco69 (0) - sylverfyre
Rad (0) - debears

Not Voting (3) - imcasey, Roco69, Djodref

Currently, Inigmaticalism is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 2 hours and 40 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
October 26 2012 21:20 GMT
#620
Ini voting dandel could have all sorts of different motives. At this point I think speculation about the matter is wifom and not particularly helpful. It gives of a null read to me.

@Sylver: I fail to see daoud's "great content". Could you point that out to me?
Also you shit on both bandwagons, which there is nothing wrong with, but you don't say who you want to lynch. That is a problem. There is less than 3 hours.left until lynch. What bandwagon do YOU think town should be riding?
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
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