EPTLooney Lynching Mini Mafia - Page 9
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I don't see any way to achieve a no-lynch. We have to get this right or it's over: 2vs2 is a mafia win. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
 What about a mafia role ? If we have no claim we have to assume mafia imo. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On October 20 2012 08:51 kushm4sta wrote: if was a scum action why would they pardon ve and not thrawn.... If there is a role like this, and if it's a mafia role then VE is obviously scum. If we have no claim, we can assume a mafia role or the lynch mechanics... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Mementoss flipping town leads me to finally accept the fact the Hopeless is the closest to what we have from a confirmed town. I had some doubts regarding a Mementoss/Hopeless scumteam but these days are obviously over. I still don't like Hopeless filter D1 and D2 nor the fact that he wanted to lynch daoud so much but he gave good reasons for it. See in the following spoiler + Show Spoiler + On October 18 2012 14:25 Hopeless1der wrote: I've finally gotten through Austin's case on MMT and I also reread through MMT's djodref case and his defense of me. Ultimately, I'm currently more town on MMT but unwilling to support a lynch on austin today. I read da0ud as scummy and I also don't think he's a prime candidate for any upcoming NK's, whereas Austin, MMT, VE are all significantly more likely to get taken out by scum (assuming they aren't scum themselves, duh). Lynching da0ud is a better longterm plan for town imo as it cleans out sandroba/ET's read on him and I think it will narrow our reads a lot more than say lynching MMT or Austin. Yes, its scummy to do things for information alone, but then again, why was ON lynched instead of sandroba? People (not me) felt they would be able to tell sandroba from sandroba. Can anyone in this game say the same of da0ud? I'm revising my votes so that MMT and Austin get my 6/7 spots. I don't want either lynched today because MMT has started to put down some serious effort into the thread (scum motivated or not) and Austin, while tunneling, is still known to post walls of text from time to time. There is also the fact that VE has just replaced in and has yet to properly sit down and take a good look at this game I think. 1-da0ud 2-djodref 3-kushm4sta 4-VisceraEyes 5-Thrawn2112 6-Mementoss 7-Austinmcc 8-Hopeless1der djodref is up there because in isolation, he's a scummier looking player, but I feel I'm really forcing any connections I make between him and other players. Since I want to hold off on MMT/Austin, after da0ud I'm ranking in the order of who I would care least if they were to go missing. I don't think kush or VE are going to be anywhere close to getting lynched, and I may need to move djodref around to have a better shot at da0ud. Really tired, so I'll lay out the short version of why I want da0ud before I go to sleep:
Why do I think that Hopeless is a town ? First of all is this great post from Mementoss -> + Show Spoiler + On October 17 2012 20:53 Mementoss wrote: Why Hopeless1der is Most likely Town The Facts: 1. Original Name 2. EchelonTee 3. Sandroba 4. EchelonTee last minute vote bombs Original Name to put him into the finals The Theory: Alright, I want you to pretend you are on the scum team and think from a team planning and chatting in the obs QT while you read this. Looking at day 1 and the facts we have, I think its pretty obvious hopeless1der is town. I thought he was scummy, for his posts, but after thinking of this and unable to answer the question with any confidence I have come to the conclusion he is town. In the semi finals, Hopeless1der was set to move on to the finals over Original Name until EchelonTee last minute voted him through. Scum could not have foreseen this happening. Therefore scum wanted Hopeless1der in the finals to be against Sandroba . I think this was an attempt to get a guarenteed mislynch. It is the only situation in my mind that makes any sense whatsoever. If both Hopeless1der and Original Name were scum, the scum team would have had to make a decision, who was less of an asset to their team. Who could they afford to bus? The obvious answer to this question is Original Name. Why? Because Original Name was guarenteed to be a lynch contender for the rest of the game, and would eventually be killed. However, this was not the case, as scum clearly wanted hopeless1der through, until EchelonTee ruined their plan. Do you think if hopeless1der was scum they would send him against Sandroba hoping he could win out? Very doubtful. It woulda been the same sort of case, "well they both look scummy, not sold on either, so lets be safe and not lynch the vet Sandroba ". If you cannot make sense of this round with hopeless1der being scum, or think of logical (likely) scum motivation for sending Hopeless1der over Original Name. If it doesn't make sense, than it probably isn't true. Therefore: Hopeless1der > Hopeless Now, I need to re-read the Hopeless1der vs Original Name matchup because I think scum was trying to send hopeless1der through to save Original Name. Secondly it makes no sense for a scum player to play scummy on purpose and admit it, especially when you are going to face your lurky scum buddy in semis. I think that ON advancing to the semis would have forced the scumteam to bus him, not protecting him, but we don't know. Anyway you don't protect your scum buddy by trying to look worse than him. And at last I've found his post quality improving during D3. I would like everybody to agree on this one. Right now, I think he is our confirmed town and I hope that you think so too. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On October 20 2012 09:13 thrawn2112 wrote: Cuz I'm not scum u silly. Don't worry I love being mislynched. It's the part of the game where in the past ive figured out who is scum. The problem is that we cannot afford to mislynch anymore... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I'm hoping daoud to come back and to start posting again. On October 19 2012 23:36 Djodref wrote: @Hopeless Hopeless, I've almost managed to totally changed my mind about you. I'm waiting for the NK to be sure. I'll explain at the beginning of D3. So I'm begging you to change your mind about daoud. Right now, I think at 95% that he is town. He is the perfect mislynch. Please remember that obvious scum is usually town  Also I would like to have you input regarding my latest points on Hiro's filter. At least, I want you to answer the following questions
I'm doing all this because we have to lynch correctly and consolidate. First of all, I want us to all agree to eliminate some targets to concentrate all our efforts to the remaining possibilities. I'm quite pissed off that we cannot lynch VE today and the lynch mechanics are clearly mafia favored. So we have to get it right ! I'm ok to discuss daoud before deciding if we really eliminate him from the possible targets or not. I hope he can come here to speak for himself. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
The main problem is that the votes are hidden. We must vote in the thread accordingly when we send our vote PM. It's pretty obvious that the mafia is going to lie about where they place their votes, this way they can easily achieve a mislynch. Because of the mylo situation and because of the lynch mechanics, it is absolutely primordial for us to consolidate. That's why I want people to discuss and decide the following points first
If you think I'm wrong about some points, please let me know. The most important thing to me is for all of us to be on the same page. We have to come out with a common plan. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Right now, I'm leaning towards you or thrawn mafia with VE. I need you to participate in an efficient way. I don't want to get to much into scumhunting discussion right now because I want us to make up a plan first. Obviously, the whole "do whatever you want with your lists" D3 lead to a debacle. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I didn't realize than you could use your friend vote on yourself. I have to think about how we can use it. I'm confident that we could get everyone agreeing that you are most likely (like 95%) town. I have to read the whole thread again... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
But I'm concerned about the extra friends vote it gives to VE... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Why we should all us our friend vote on ourselves I've given some further thoughts about it, especially how mafia could try to abuse the lynch mechanics and deadline voting, and I think we must use our friend vote on ourselves. First of all, I think that we are at mylo, with 4 town and 2 mafia, unfortunately no medic and no way to have a no-lynch. I'm pretty that mafia is just one mislynch away from victory and they don't care if they have to reveal to do so. VE being pardoned is a good example of this in my opinion. For me, it basically confirms that he is mafia. Given the lynch mechanics, we must stack all our votes to one of the remaining mafia players. Now I'm going to develop and explain why we must also use our friend vote on ourselves. Let's assume that we found one mafia player player and everybody agrees to lynch him. It's going to take some time for sure. But we can do it ^^ Let's also say that someone (I'm going to call him Hopeless later on for more clarity  ) says publicly that he is not going to use his friend vote on himself because he doesn't need to so he is going to use it for other purposes.If the 2 mafia players stack their votes early on Hopeless, he is going to be the first one to reach 2 votes against him. Then even if we found the remaining mafia player and vote him with the results of 4 votes against him, they can try to last minute friend him, reducing the amount of votes to 2. If I'm right, in this case, Hopeless gets lynched and we lose. I think it is going to be difficult to react to last minute friend voting (by switching all town votes against the other mafia), and impossible if the other mafia is VE. If everybody use the friend vote on himself, the maximum vote count that mafia can reach with hidden stacking is going to be 1 and we have to counter it with all town votes against a mafia player. This way, even if they try to last minute friend the lynch target, town is still going to achieve a total of 2 votes against him. Conclusion We must absolutely consolidate our vote and use friend vote on ourselves. If we do so, giving a "free" friend vote to VE is not going to matter. Please tell me if you think that I'm wrong. ##Vote Friend Djodref | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
What do you think about Hopeless being almost a confirmed townie ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On October 20 2012 12:05 da0ud wrote: One thing on the lynch mecanics : could VE get lynched if no one uses their foe votes? We would all be in negative. Do you think mafia is not going to use their votes ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On October 20 2012 12:05 da0ud wrote: One thing on the lynch mecanics : could VE get lynched if no one uses their foe votes? We would all be in negative. Seriously guys, this is a perfect example why I think daoud is town. I admit that playing the newbie could be a strategy to survive but there is a limit to what you could be able to forge... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Sorry guys, I got to go | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On October 20 2012 12:05 da0ud wrote: One thing on the lynch mecanics : could VE get lynched if no one uses their foe votes? We would all be in negative. The mafia is going to put some townie at 1 or at 2 in any case... Seriously if you are pretending to not understand you deserve your victory... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
If VE was not pardoned today but Thrawn, would you lynch him and why ? | ||
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