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Guys I was allowed to make that defense on hopeless because it was 90% 10% wifom.
We can't tell if hopeless vs ON was townies voting hopeless through and scum "letting" is happen by being apathetic to vote against it or if it was scum pushing hopeless through voting to save ON. Remember hopeless was one of the bigger cases of day 1, made by a confirmed townie (ET). So using purely vote analysis is oversimplifying things and too wifom. Stop oversimplifying, remember day 2?
So guys go back to making real cases from real analysis. Use the voting wifom as a weak support, and not the main point. The main case on prplhz was voting sandroba and look how that turned out.
As far as I'm concerned im going to be looking at everyone except myself and hopeless for scum. Don't forget to analyse night 1 day 2 night 2 and day 3 (pre/post hopeless town post) to find scum. Don't limit yourself to only 25% of the information.
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EBWOP: 90% Facts 10% wifom
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kush could you elaborate more about your hesitations on da0? The one reason I think he's town is because he shows a lot of newbie paranoia in his scumhunting process. Like early on he was making elaborate association cases, that kind of stuff. That is the type of stuff that townies do. He's either my #1 lynch candidate or like my #6 lol.
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Did anybody read my defense of daoud ?
I feel I have been totally rape-ninjaed by mementoss...
@mementoss
Do you find my defense too much WIFOM ?
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On October 17 2012 22:32 Djodref wrote:
Did anybody read my defense of daoud ?
I feel I have been totally rape-ninjaed by mementoss...
@mementoss
Do you find my defense too much WIFOM ?
Sandroba was killed because of his vet status
ET was killed both because of his very townie status and vet status
Scum kills are mostly to people with town cred or vet status (really good scum hunting) I don't see what this has to do with da0ds alignment.
If they killed Sandroba and ET for a specific reason it would be more likely to protect da0d from tunneling vets, than to incriminate him, an easy mislynch if he was town because hes easy to make a case on anyways they didn't need any extra leverage. This is too WIFOM, you can't know or prove either way unless your mafia.
@Thrawn: Im interested in the reasoning behind your changes in the top 3, could you explain them for me.
On October 17 2012 13:39 thrawn2112 wrote:
1 austin
2 hiro
3 da0ud
4 hopeless1der
5 mementoss
6 Djodref
7 kushm4sta
8 thrawn2112
On October 17 2012 16:01 thrawn2112 wrote:
1 da0ud
2 austin
3 hiro
4 hopeless1der
5 mementoss
6 Djodref
7 kushm4sta
8 thrawn2112
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at this point Im gunna throw a gut feeling list out there and get into more analysis hopefully after work
1 da0ud
2 austin
3 hiro
4. kushm4sta
5 djodref
6 Thrawn2112
7 Hopeless1der
8 mementoss
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On October 17 2012 21:43 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2012 21:21 Mementoss wrote:
My only problem now is I don't know who to lynch, but at least this is a starting point for discussion Well, I have the same problem, but I'm feeling really excited right now. There is some good discussion going on ^^ @HopelessPlease look at my second defense of Daoud, and tell me if you still want to lynch him after this. I didn't appreciate the fact that you have said that my first defense of him was piss-poor. But I'm realizing right now that I might have been totally stupid while tunneling you. Please step up and you're going to drop quickly from the top of my list.
Of course I still want to lynch him. Your defense of him only worked because you assumed I'm scum and I'm still actively pushing his lynch. If/When I flip town, a lynch on da0ud becomes more desirable, but as you've said, you have been tunneling me and I may not be able to change your mind this time.
Going back to your first defense, you attempt to completely throw out any association with ON because ON was a lurker. However, ON still came in and placed votes and said some stuff. In addition, we KNOW OriginalName flipped scum. I went through da0ud's filter right around the time that ON got pushed ahead of me by ET. He couldn't keep his story straight even though he was damn near certain of a couple things involving:
- Hopeless vs djodref
- ON vs sandroba
I just can't follow his logic (page 2 of his filter) and I think it's because he's scum and he was just saying things to make it look like he cared about the lynch.
Also, how does this happen:
On October 16 2012 16:50 da0ud wrote:
Currently my scum to town scale goes as below :
1) Mementoss
2) Hopeless
3) ET
4) Austin
5) Kush
6) Hiro
7) Djo
8) Thrawn
On October 17 2012 13:19 da0ud wrote:
I am not the best at this game yet I admit it. I am not the best psychologist. I have not read (yet) the threads to learn how to play better. One thing I am sure of : I am good at maths and finding patterns. This game is intense and trust me being asleep when the heart of the action takes place is not easy. I wake up every morning with 10 pages to read. Would be easier for me to improve faster if I was in your timezone.
@ Kush : I will look into why I do put Thrawn on top of my town list.
On October 17 2012 15:49 da0ud wrote:
Update :
1) Thrawn
2) Hopeless
3) Mementoss
4) Austin
5) Hiro
6) Djo
7) Kush
8) Da0ud
Thrawn literally went from top town read to top scum read, and Thrawn's already commented on this revelation. I can't sit here and watch this go unpunished.
+ Show Spoiler +Side Note...his first town/scum rank "ladder" was made before we even knew the lynch mechanic. Are the hosts stealing ideas from the thread or did da0ud have access to the lynch info somehow? This is too coincidental for my liking.
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Look at da0's recent posts. He lists me as his top town read. Kush jumps on him for it and asks him to explain. Da0's response was that he needs to "look into" why I'm his top town read. I don't know how he can have a top town read and not be able to give an explanation for it even at a moment's notice. Then after his investigation is complete he comes back and now I'm his top scum read. And the reasons he gave in his case against me were just downright silly. The whole thing just looked like him trying to avoid the wrath of kush so I moved him up the list.
I really don't know what to make of him. Like I've said I want to think he's town because his scumhunting shows newbie townie paranoia (crazy association cases etc) but there's so much against him.... and this last flip flop has been truly wtf.
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I just tried to make sense of da0ud's filter's 2nd page but there's too many mistyped names for me to properly make sense of the logic. My basic conclusion is based on the tone and language he used and that his posting made it sound like he had pretty much solved who was scum/town when it was:
Hopeless vs Sandroba (He felt sandroba was scum)
but when it was
ON vs sandroba he was no longer sure of anything. His change in tone and conviction is drastic and is not adequately justified. I see massive scum motivation in trying to avoid taking a definitive stance in order to gauge the town atmosphere and attempt to push for sandroba's mislynch.
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@Hopeless
I think you misunderstood me.
My defense is based on the fact that it's more likely than daoud is a mislynch pushed by the mafia than a mafia player (this based on the possible strategies followed by the mafia while killing Sandro and ET). And I think that my point is valid, even if it's based on something we cannot be sure of.
I thought it could incriminate you at the same time because you were pushing him.
About changing my mind, mementoss post about you is quite solid, and I'm afraid right now that I was wrong.
Anyway, I would appreciate more post and more content from you, regardless of your alignment.
@Everyone
I need to update my ranking but I want to see first how are going to contribute Kush and Hopeless today. Right now, I'm thinking at something like
1 Hiro
2
3
4
5 Daoud
6 Mementoss
7 Thrawn
8 Djodref
Mementoss has really impressed me with his post about Hopeless. I cannot see anything but town motives for such a post.
Nevertheless, I have thought at a Hopeless/Mementoss scumteam but I don't see it likely at all (maybe another stupid idea^^). I'll keep it in a corner of my mind if you survive for too long.
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On October 18 2012 00:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
I just tried to make sense of da0ud's filter's 2nd page but there's too many mistyped names for me to properly make sense of the logic. My basic conclusion is based on the tone and language he used and that his posting made it sound like he had pretty much solved who was scum/town when it was:
Hopeless vs Sandroba (He felt sandroba was scum)
but when it was
ON vs sandroba he was no longer sure of anything. His change in tone and conviction is drastic and is not adequately justified. I see massive scum motivation in trying to avoid taking a definitive stance in order to gauge the town atmosphere and attempt to push for sandroba's mislynch.
What are you referring to with hopeless vs sandroba I don't recall that being a matchup
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1-da0ud
2-austinmcc
3-djodref
4-HiroPro
5-kushm4sta
6-thrawn2112
7-Mementoss
8-Hopeless1der
Obviously I'm biased due to his case, but MMT has been berating us constantly for not actively pushing scumreads and I kept seeing him saying things that weren't true Day1 regarding voting on your own matchups. I sincerely doubt that a scumteam would allow him to continue to misunderstand the lynch mechanics like that, or that he'd be so careless if he were scum.
Be back later, need to go do work for a change.
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On October 18 2012 00:08 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 00:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
I just tried to make sense of da0ud's filter's 2nd page but there's too many mistyped names for me to properly make sense of the logic. My basic conclusion is based on the tone and language he used and that his posting made it sound like he had pretty much solved who was scum/town when it was:
Hopeless vs Sandroba (He felt sandroba was scum)
but when it was
ON vs sandroba he was no longer sure of anything. His change in tone and conviction is drastic and is not adequately justified. I see massive scum motivation in trying to avoid taking a definitive stance in order to gauge the town atmosphere and attempt to push for sandroba's mislynch. What are you referring to with hopeless vs sandroba I don't recall that being a matchup
It almost was one before ET's votebomb went through. Kita had to re-read his own rules to make sure.
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He is talking about the comments daoud made about the possible matchups for the final
Because it was at first
ON/Sandroba
then Hopeless/Sandroba
then ON/Sandroba
By the way I don't understand why a scum Daoud would have not voted in that matchup, given his level of play.
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hopeless why is memtoss your highest town read?
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He made my defense for me and I think his intentions are sincere. I don't think I'm a valuable enough asset for scum to defend me like that, so my conclusion is he is legitimately attempting to prevent a mislynch on me.
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Thrawn who is your top scumread??? I have no idea. Where is your list? Or are you just going to nitpick everyone elses'?
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kush dont be fucking dumb read the thread(s) that's how you learn things
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I did and I still dont know who is your top scumread and where is your list?
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kush, I take it you are working on a case against thrawn? or have you changed your mind from eariler?
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EPT
