Newbie Mini Mafia XXVII

On September 21 2012 13:10 thrawn2112 wrote:


If the reasoning behind that is that he is trying to save his strongest town read then it would have gone to either of the 2 confirmed masons. Anyway there are tons of possible explanations of the roleblock and no reason to believe any of more than any other so I'd rather not speculate about it.

On September 22 2012 00:32 RemedySC wrote:


Not necessarily. We could have another roleblocker who is town in the ugly prostitute.

On September 22 2012 00:59 thrawn2112 wrote:


unless they thought I was scum

Also Dandel if rethos/you are town then obviously I can't expect you to be able to defend his actions but imo what he said was scummy enough for me to keep the vote on you unless you change my mind about that. So who do you propose lynching?



In answer to your question I'm not allowed to post specific wording but marv said that all roleblock notifications say the same thing. Not sure if you asked me to post to verify it against yours or if you are digging for information about where the roleblock would have come from.

Your logic about roleblocking makes sense but I do not know what information it gives or if the 2nd roleblock can be verified to have come from either mafia or town so once again I don't put too much stock in that discussion right now. However I will give my thoughts on my roleblock. If it came from a town player it was because they thought I was scum, or they were a jk thinking I was town. If it came from mafia, I think they suspect me of being one of the more powerful blue roles and they were trying to stop me from performing an action based upon the reads I was making during N1. And all that is under the assumption that your mason confirmation is indeed accurate. I don't think it's possible that you could have faked those timestamps in 5 minutes and to me that is enough to assume your mason status is confirmed. That's all I have to say about that topic though because there's no way of knowing (except asking for a role claim which I don't think would be worth it for this situation) which option I should believe.

I'd like to move on from the roleblocking discussion and on to lynch discussion.

On September 22 2012 01:34 thrawn2112 wrote:


I'd say they're confirmed town. If you've got any reason otherwise please say so.

Ah, and for the record, I wrote that Sharrant and Sharky can't be confirmed town yet, but I am pretty sure that they actually are.

The reason for that is that Cubu faced the strong possibility of a modkill (usually you'd get modkilled for not voting, even in a newbie game), and I don't think Sharrant would go full balls-to-the-walls and risk being outed with the nightpost. Also, the qt conversation and timestamps.

Just so that there's no confusion about that expression of mine.

On September 22 2012 01:44 thrawn2112 wrote:


Yeah in that post you talk about how you think they are masons because of the modkill possibility, but I want to know why you originally said they aren't confirmed in the earlier post.

I am going to do some more reading and try to have a better argument done before going to sleep.

On September 19 2012 13:42 RemedySC wrote:
Damn, I'm way too tired to concentrate.

I will be back early in the morning.

Good night.

On September 21 2012 07:51 RemedySC wrote:


Kush actually did provide his read.



Looks like you're digging, and avoiding the accusations against you.

##FOS Thrawn

On September 21 2012 08:40 RemedySC wrote:
This post by Thrawn to me screams mafia if you think of drazak as a town.



Why get worked up over this post by drazak, when he was replying to Kush? He is very capable of defending himself.



Scum slip? That sentence totally contradicts itself.

On September 22 2012 00:22 RemedySC wrote:
Okay, too move the conversation towards the lurkers, since they haven't been active d2.

My scummiest read is on stutters, mainly because of this post.



In this post he mentions three confirmed town. KillingTime I am iffy on, and I'll take a closer look at his posts. I think that if Killing is town though, than this post by Stutters is very scummy.

He even goes as far to say that even if Cubu is town he needs to die. Like really?

On September 22 2012 05:52 kushm4sta wrote:
k you are right dandel.
I'm dropping it.

On September 22 2012 05:56 kushm4sta wrote:
it doesn't even matter to me that sharky is lurking. him and sharrant are so town I think its ridiculous to even bring them up as a scum possibility.

On September 22 2012 06:06 thrawn2112 wrote:


I've said pretty much all I have to say about remedy during N1. I started looking into his filter because of this post. Go and look at the craziness that went down in the last few hours of D1. Rethos wasn't around for the most crucial part but then he comes in 6 minutes after the lynch saying the the mislynch didn't go well. He later said he did that because he was lurking in the thread 30-40 minutes before the deadline but he didn't feel like he had anything useful to say. Then he made some (imo and apparently yours too) weak and poorly thought out accusations against me and this was right after kush had made a massive FOS on me. (btw kush that statement is not a suspicion of you it's a suspicion of remedy) Before the rethos thing happened he was my top scumread. Another weird thing happened with him since all that was is he came into the thread and made this post:



That's all he has to say about a topic that has caused votes for a player this early on in D1?

On September 22 2012 06:10 thrawn2112 wrote:
edit: replace remedy with rethos in "Rethos wasn't around for the most crucial part"

lol but that statement would be true for rethos as well

On September 22 2012 06:15 kushm4sta wrote:
I want to wait until I'm at my pc so I can actually do a good job of reading filters and cross referencing with the thread for context.
your case against remedy is just lack of scumhunting right? I think its true that he's all accusation and no argumentation. I want to look onto that more, then ask him to expand on his reasoning for some of.his accusations and see what he comes up with.

On September 22 2012 06:18 thrawn2112 wrote:
not confusing them, see my edit post

and kush. have you read any of the stuff I said about remedy during N1? it's not just about a lack of scumhunting

On September 22 2012 10:12 debears wrote:
Now for the serious part. Your play has come off weird at the start.


What part of the debacle are you talking about? Site a specific post please so I know where your reference post begins.

In another post



I absolutely hate when people mention vig shots, especially when it comes to lurkers early game. Xatalos did last game and he ended up a mafia. When I was reading over the game, Xatalos' post screamed out mafia, and yours here is similar. It gives me the feeling that you are saying "I'm mafia. Please shot 'X' lurker so that I don't have to worry about you mr. vigilante. We can lynch the lurkers. Mafia in the mid and late game, when they are active, can be deadly and sometimes can't be lynched.

Then, about remedy



The funny thing is that Rethos did that same thing throughout d1 when I called him out for it. I am assuming you at the least read through your previous identity's filter to know what he said. If not, please look at my argument against him.

+ Show Spoiler +

Then, this post

+ Show Spoiler +

I don't like how you are just dismissing the case against Rethos/you. There are clear scumtells in his writing that we can't ignore.

You mention sharky lurking hard in this post (and later ones also), although right before you state that you are 99% sure he is town. Although he may be lurking, he may be privately working with sharrant to catch up. Also, why should we put pressure on a (99% according to you) townie for the sake of making him post? We are pressuring people to get information and correct reads.

Yet again, same point I've shown from previous posts. You have zoomed in on Remedy as desperation to take the pressure off yourself. You cannot just dismiss the case against rethos/you. You came into the game with immense pressure on you and your response is sweep it under the rug. Rethos had a short filter. Most of the case against him was made after the lynch, which you definitely should have read first thing. You are also making weird statements back and forth on the masons, which are pretty clear by now. Go find the couple of hours before the lynch if you must read it in depth. And finally, the vig shot post...ew.

At this point, you have added to the scumminess of rethos in my eyes

On September 23 2012 00:15 RemedySC wrote:




Dandel, you posted this 28 minutes after I called you out for bad logic. Previous to this you only mentioned me because there was a mistake in someone calling me Regent. You never responded to my question and are instead trying to get the attention off yourself.

Did I hit a nerve? You seem to really want me gone now.

My posts may be shitty and lack content, but i have always been pro-town. I could have easily gone after drazak or Cubu Day 1, but instead I refused to vote on Cubu, and I didn't know what to think on the Drazak situation. That is why I didn't post with 45 minutes remaining day 1. I didn't think i could say anything that would make a difference when Lynch time was so close.

On September 23 2012 01:21 thrawn2112 wrote:


Who would you rather the wagon be? I see you come into the thread with a scumread that other people thought was scummy at the time, (most especially myself) debears attacks you and you immediately go after him even to the point of voting for him. Then two people go for stutters and it's time to change your vote to stutters? Is debears still your top read? Don't you even want to try to see if you can push your case?

On September 23 2012 01:21 debears wrote:
@Dandel

+ Show Spoiler +

Alright. Thanks for the clarification. It seems to me that, in that post that you are claiming the start of his "I don't give a shit" parade, he did still care. He made a lot of short posts before that, and then comes in with a longer post when we suddenly say that we should focus on lurkers.

+ Show Spoiler +

You come into a game past the d1 lynch, have to catch up on a lot of posts, then have a good enough read of the situation to call out who we should vig shot? It's not an association case. It's a read that I have incorporated into my play based on my observations from last game. In fact, most of my reads are based off of other games, guides, and such. Wouldn't that be logical instead of saying, oh it happened last game, it won't happen again. I bring up Xatalos to remind the other guys who did play last game of it.

+ Show Spoiler +

Lol. Blatant lie. I have NEVER said remedy is town. I have put little focus on him, seeing as thrawn and others are looking into him. Instead, I have seen you and Atreides saying stuff that calls immediate attention.

I made the same argument against killing.

+ Show Spoiler +

Same reasoning as I made against you.

So why are you putting words in my mouth?

Here's a quote on earlier.



I picked the two most scummy looking: you and Atreides. And now I am examining you in closer detail. Just beca.use you don't say someone is scum doesn't mean you don't have a scum read on them.



Yet, again. I have talked about others. I've talked about KillingTime, although he is off my radar atm, and Atreides besides you. Yet you say I am not looking into possible scum and I'm not talking about something different. Another lie. See a trend in this?



Your point about Sharrant being shot and him being useless is valid if him and sharrant aren't talking, which is a big assumption. Maybe sharky hasn't posted much so that he can focus on reading the thread a few times to get an accurate read of the situation, so he doesn't end up making piss poor reads and lie. I understand you wanting to be active.



I brought it up because you brought sharky's lurking up when, 1. He's a mason and can talk privately with sharrant
2. You're only case is against remedy, who is trying to make a case against you, and me, when I am making a case against you.

Oh, and about your remedy case



"rehashed garbage". Hmmm when you're main arguments against me and him are that we don't "scumhunt". I believe Thrawn already addressed that part of the remedy case. And maybe if you read more into my argument, you could have seen my stuff added in with the "rehashed garbage"



Even if that was the truth about this last post, I now have an even better contribution with this post.



Way to OMGUS worse than kush.

Oh and when did you make a case against stutters? I thought you knew how to scumhunt, since you're telling other people how to

*drops the microphone emphatically*

On September 23 2012 02:28 Sharrant wrote:
Wait. So, someone you think is scum called you scum, so you're not going to do anything? Am I clear on that?

Someone you called scum, called you scum, so you don't want to make any more cases in case someone calls you scum, you're just going to wait until deadline and be lynched? I can't tell if you're gambling on sympathy to not get voted up, or if you're sincere and really hurt by debears saying you're scum. The latter means you're the thinnest skinned individual in the world, and that's a one in six billion chance.

On September 23 2012 02:43 Sharrant wrote:
Yes. That is directed towards you.



What the fuck is that? Honestly. I was going to bold the important parts, but it's all so... what the fuck?

You pushed a case. Debears called you scum. You think debears is scum. But "I don't see a better fate for any of my cases as long as I live". So what? I told you to convince me that you're town, Rethos left you in a hole and you're digging it deeper. You say you're trying to meet your win condition. How exactly? Let's say you're town, you're willfully getting lynched. You're not trying to convince anyone, you've apparently given up on scumhunting in the hopes that your reads are then taken more seriously when you die. So you want the town to be down another town member on the second day, and then another at night. So you're perfectly fine with 4 town deaths in a row. How is that trying to meet your win condition unless you're not town.

Let's say you're mafia. You're pretty sure you're found out, but you don't want to give out any potential information on your scumbuddies so you clam up, so that you go down without revealing anyone else.

One of those sounds a lot more likely with everything you've said. You're not doing yourself any favours. Trying to make yourself a martyr as town ISN'T GOING TO HELP. So make some cases, and then you might not be the one lynched, and you might actually get that scum kill you were looking for.

On September 23 2012 06:31 debears wrote:
@Dandel

+ Show Spoiler +



I was looking back at your vig shot argument (which is the only argument you actually refuted in my long ass case) and saw some extra stuff. You said that if there are only 1 or 2 lurkers, they can be "easily solved with a vig shot". Although you do say there are 3 or 4, why can't one of the 3/4 be "easily solved" with a shot also? If it is "absolutely necessary" to rid of lurkers towards mylo/lylo, why wouldn't you want them out of the way sooner?

Also, you bring up the argument that we "possibly have no Vig at all". THEN WHY DID YOU BRING IT UP OUT OF NOWHERE????? You must have been actively thinking of there being a vig in the game to suddenly post about it. Who usually does that? Mafia? Town?

Finally, you say that you'd be down for lynching stutters (who you voted for despite the argument "being less about scumreads") while you have a scum read on me...an apparently strong one at that.

+ Show Spoiler +





Oh yeah. This "makes me think you're just trying to appear like you're "scumhunting", when you actually don't", good reasoning.

On September 23 2012 07:40 Atreides- wrote:
ugghhh

Stutters is a bad vote, right now I don't feel comfortable lynching him without him posting more. I think that his lurking is him genuinely being busy rather than intentional (due to his lurking last game. he once went 2-3 days without a post).

After my last post I would have felt strong about voting thrawn, I think I made a good case against him but it was pretty much swept under the rug. Seems like I'm alone here, and there's no chance of him getting votes. However at the very least I suggest looking into my post and his filter...being active doesn't make you town.

Dandel doesn't come off as scummy to me yet, and I posted earlier why I didn't buy the case against rethos. He's open to lynching debears, stutters, remedy, and possibly another lurker. Meaning if he's mafia it's less likely for these others to be mafia as well.

Remedy...I think he's a last resort lynch at best. I can't make any reads off him. His activity is in line with what he said his work schedule would be. His posts are too short, he votes without explanation, and his arguments don't make much sense...but I have trouble differentiating this between mafia and confused town.

On September 23 2012 09:05 Atreides- wrote:
So it looks like 3 town and 6 mafia still alive? Not including the possibility of SK

On September 23 2012 23:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:
@dandel I am not sold on killing as solo scum at all. Why would you be more sure? (as in apart from the how scum kush would act theory{which seems to require more information than we have})

He was trying to steer people onto stutters but not in a definite way. He jumped from stutteres to remedy often and he seemed to start doing this when the focus was shifting from stutters (although hard to tell without timeline)

Also scum has almost won this game? 0-o I hope not I was just getting into it. Why, are we completely on the wrong trail? What do you know? You seem to have more information than possible. (However I haven’t gotten around to your filter yet)

“Scum Kush would have been best served by staying on Remedy, and blaming me or/and Thrawn for the Remedy mislynch afterwards. From there, it'd be really easy to mislynch me (without even pushing for it) and have town at 4-3 LYLO, with a strong position for a thrawn or stutters lynch next. (two wagons with pretty decent chances in that situation)”
Thats a pretty hypothetical situation. That assumes you are town. You were actually in my kush dandel killing theory which is why I am making cases on you (and a re-evaluation of thrawn to be safe) I will have to wait for my arm to come back to functioning status before I continue though...

On September 24 2012 04:08 thrawn2112 wrote:


Now that your past reads except for debears are gone, what are your current scum reads? I haven't seen you give any since the lynch. You discuss the possibility that killing might be scummier than kush but your read on him is null.

On September 24 2012 21:40 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah kinda... but... in the case of you and kush like every second post of kush's could have mafia intent. Where as you were different. (also yes I know I am susceptible to confirmation bias happened all of last game (with the killing thing everything he said looked scummy to me)) However what do you think of my dandel read? or you should probably not tell me so I don't get more confirmation bias when I go though the filter...

On September 24 2012 21:44 JacobStrangelove wrote:


Yeah but you can't back up a DT claim because he was invisible *sigh my jokes are getting worse* I assume you mean cop?

On September 24 2012 23:50 thrawn2112 wrote:
so dandel, what is going through your mind? you promised reads today

Oh man, I planned on doing a baller post on my likely scumteam today, which would have been debears + thrawn + atreides, [...]

On September 25 2012 02:00 Atreides- wrote:


You were leaning on debears earlier, but now you vote thrawn without a single word of explanation? And you accuse me of bandwagoning...even though I made it clear after the end of night 2 that I wanted thrawn lynched.

On September 25 2012 02:06 thrawn2112 wrote:
Dandel you have an amazing track record of bandwagoning onto the most popular cases.

You came in talking about remedy (I was pushing very hard against remedy directly prior to being scummy of rethos/you), you vote for stutters as he starts becoming the main bandwagon, and you eventually end up back on remedy, also a big bandwagon. Now you're voting for me based off (from what I can tell from what you;'re implying in your argument) the stuff that has happened recently... and I'm also the biggest bandwagon. Your only unique vote was for debears, who you unvoted as soon as someone else became the bandwagon, and since then you've barely mentioned him at all.

and you eventually end up back on remedy, also a big bandwagon.

On September 25 2012 07:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
dandel please tell me why you think I'm scum

On September 23 2012 19:31 thrawn2112 wrote:
That case does influence my read of jacob to be more townish than I previously thought. Not because of the quality of the arguments (i'll let you know what I think about the actual case when I finish reading it) but because of the sheer amount of work he put into it and how he is actually very clear with his accusations which was my (and kush's) problem with his previous posting.

I'm starting to think that the interactions and accusations between me/jacob/kush (all varying degrees of the more active posters in the thread) suggests that there could be a large portion of mafia among the lurkers.

On September 25 2012 08:15 thrawn2112 wrote:


You say you're null on killing, but then throw in a suggestive statement that there might be something suspicious about him... yet you have a null read on him. Time to grow some balls and stop subtly hinting at things that might be scummy. Is your read on him really null?

Yeah cause you totally think thrawn is town right now -_-

On September 25 2012 10:40 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah I discovered that in the next line if you read it... I go though chronologically.

On September 25 2012 10:54 thrawn2112 wrote:
The only original case dandel has presented was against debears who was as he said, his top scumread, which he dropped the instant the stutters bandwagon started forming and he didn't follow up on it post lynch. He's barely even said anything about debears since then. He jumped on the remedy bandwagon, he jumped on the stutters bandwagon, and here he is on another bandwagon. When he first voted for me his reasons why he thought I'm scummy were the following:



this space left intentionally blank



....and instead of talking about me he just talks about scumteam theories. And the guy he replaced was a confirmed liar. If there is anyone who thinks I'm town then you need to be looking for mafia in one of the 4 that voted me. Due to maths one of them has to be scum. I don't think there'd be 2 scum in a game with 13 people.

On September 25 2012 11:08 JacobStrangelove wrote:
See what I mean...

On September 26 2012 05:29 thrawn2112 wrote:


game mvp right here

On September 26 2012 05:33 kushm4sta wrote:
dandel is actually the best replacement ever compared to the others
even though he is a huge flamer.

On September 26 2012 05:37 debears wrote:
@Thrawn

You attack atreides, dandel, and then me all in one day. Now, I'm obviously the scummiest? your main point against me is my defense post. The part about defending the last poster lynch was something that sonic admitted being mistaken about after i kept explaining it to him. The rest is stuff that you called a no read in the beginning. Now, when i accuse you of scum yiu finally change your opinion of the matter? That doesnt make sense. In fact it feels OMGUS to me.

. I said early on I was going through your filter. I did it to double check my early claim of you. I went trhiugh your whole filter, writing down your significant posts. At the end, i looked back at all of it put together. Itd all be way coincidental. I find it highly unlikely that the mafia would defend one of their own at this point of the game. That would be a stupid thing to risk.

On September 26 2012 06:28 Atreides- wrote:
haha, well that's just a matter of opinion

On September 26 2012 07:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
dandel there is no hope. look at the people who could vote switch.... and rule out the people who you think could be scum and the people that make 1 post a day... there's not enough remaining to get a different outcome

On September 26 2012 08:02 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I was so tunnelled on kush I am not even sure what is the case if he isn’t mafia...


Atreides is acting really strange in these last few minutes, but I had him as almost sure town.

On September 26 2012 08:04 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Oh and it's town mayor btw

On September 26 2012 08:05 kushm4sta wrote:
sup sorry guys tuesday is my busiest day Wtf is going on

On September 26 2012 08:10 debears wrote:
Nice reasoning dandel for your vote

On September 26 2012 08:13 kushm4sta wrote:
also thrawn is scummier imo.

On September 26 2012 08:24 KillingTime wrote:
No I have not been reading the thread since my last post until now.

On September 26 2012 08:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
if there's a roleblocker and I get lynched then please don't roleblock dandel

On September 26 2012 08:57 thrawn2112 wrote:
no i'm not. where do you read this stuff... there weren't any potential set ups listed in the op

On September 26 2012 08:58 Dandel Ion wrote:

I sometimes use logic.

On September 26 2012 08:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
so what jacob?

On September 26 2012 09:25 KillingTime wrote:
... For reference my checks were green on debears n1 (framed presumably) and Dandel. So that 2 of Kush/Jacob/Thrawn were scum was obvious. - but I was just too busy too really work out the right answer

On September 26 2012 09:00 Dandel Ion wrote:
I dedicate this game to lurkers.

On September 26 2012 09:00 Dandel Ion wrote:
I dedicate this game to lurkers.

On September 26 2012 09:00 Dandel Ion wrote:
I dedicate this game to lurkers.

On September 26 2012 10:07 marvellosity wrote:


Going association-crazy is one of the biggest weaknesses of newbie townies. Find one sure-fire scum and then work out any connections with him after he flips.

On September 26 2012 12:59 thrawn2112 wrote:
lol hapa, by the time I made that case, all town thought I was scum. and the basis of my case was that I'm town so.......

dandel lon when I claimed vig did you still think I was sk?

On September 26 2012 16:29 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:


I think this is pretty spot on.

I almost JK you n1. You were townie to me, so good job on that. I still think JK anyone except for Sharrant would be pretty bad. At first I thought Dandel made a decent point for JK thrawn, but now I'm pretty decided it was a weak argument.

Still not decided on who the best n1 NK was from scum's perspective. I was pretty sure they'd kill thrawn, Sharrant or me though.

On September 26 2012 20:13 marvellosity wrote:
Thanks go to my co-hosts, and to Hapahauli for providing a large chunk of analysis there, good job.

Lots of comments I could make, but for now I disagree strongly with this:



I thought his Night 1 JK was absolutely the right action. What happens if mafia actually DO hit Sharrant, and you just let them kill the only useful confirmed townie?

There are several threads of this through my own games that I've played here. My first and most 'ouch' memory was from Magic Mini - I had almost singlehandedly pushed through a scum lynch day 2, and then I called out 2 of the remaining 3 scum during Night 2. I was the only viable protection target. Except for the doctor thought "they'll never hit him knowing I'll protect him" and protected some random townie. Mafia took the chance shooting me at night, and town ended up losing the game.

Basically protect your assets. Which SDM did.

Edit: just while I'm thinking about it, there was also quite a bit of totally incorrect setup speculation going on, about numbers of mafia, SK role, number of blues etc. It seemed to hurt town at some stages because there were incorrect assumptions. Never assume about the setup unless you know for sure.

On September 26 2012 20:56 marvellosity wrote:


Sounds logical, but bear in mind a few things:

1) Scum do not know at the time there is a protective role;
2) In my experience (I could cite countless examples) mafia will often go for high priority targets, even with the risk that they will be protected
3) If you're not protecting the obvious target, you're taking a stab in the dark guessing who the mafia WILL hit, and chances are you probably won't get a successful save off anyay.
4) The risk of losing Sharrant, someone you know to be townie AND useful, is too high to NOT protect him