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I think Killing is more likely to be scum than Kush is.
But even then, I'm not really sold on Killing.
Just looking at the actions Kush took at the end of day 2, scum Kush would have taken an insanely big gamble by trying to steer everyone to stutters.
The thing is, it would have made sense from a scum-Kush perspective if he was just "trying" that while he was sure that nobody would actually follow his too-late bandwagon. That would make the most sense if the two other scum were present as well - they would stay on Remedy and let him do his towncred-digging with stutters.
Then Remedy flips green and Kush can be all "told you so, we should have gone for stutters"
The gamble was that, should people actually jump on, stutters would've flipped green and he (kush) would've looked pretty red. There was also a very strong possibility that stutters was gonna get modkilled, but since Cubu got replaced too, Kush might've banked on that happening again. Who knows.
The thing is, if you are willing to believe that Kush would take such a big risk in a game that scum has almost won anyways, you might as well come to the conclusion that Sharrant and Sharky fakeclaimed mason.
Scum Kush would have been best served by staying on Remedy, and blaming me or/and Thrawn for the Remedy mislynch afterwards. From there, it'd be really easy to mislynch me (without even pushing for it) and have town at 4-3 LYLO, with a strong position for a thrawn or stutters lynch next. (two wagons with pretty decent chances in that situation)
I think Kush is not scum, because there is no tangiable scum motivation behind his recent actions.
While what he did/does is not exactly thriving with town motivation, there is even less scum motivation.
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On September 23 2012 23:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:
@dandel I am not sold on killing as solo scum at all. Why would you be more sure? (as in apart from the how scum kush would act theory{which seems to require more information than we have})
He was trying to steer people onto stutters but not in a definite way. He jumped from stutteres to remedy often and he seemed to start doing this when the focus was shifting from stutters (although hard to tell without timeline)
Also scum has almost won this game? 0-o I hope not I was just getting into it. Why, are we completely on the wrong trail? What do you know? You seem to have more information than possible. (However I haven’t gotten around to your filter yet)
“Scum Kush would have been best served by staying on Remedy, and blaming me or/and Thrawn for the Remedy mislynch afterwards. From there, it'd be really easy to mislynch me (without even pushing for it) and have town at 4-3 LYLO, with a strong position for a thrawn or stutters lynch next. (two wagons with pretty decent chances in that situation)”
Thats a pretty hypothetical situation. That assumes you are town. You were actually in my kush dandel killing theory which is why I am making cases on you (and a re-evaluation of thrawn to be safe) I will have to wait for my arm to come back to functioning status before I continue though...
I feel pretty safe in assuming I am town. I would know.
I was saying Killing has a "higher chance", meaning I have less of a town read on him than I have on Kush. It's a direct comparison.
I don't currently think Killing is too scummy, but I aknowledge the possibility that he might be. He's pretty null to me though.
I don't think Kush is scum. In other words, I think Kush is town.
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Gyro if you wanna play mafia, this is not how you do it
THIS Newbie game currently takes signups, just /in there.
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On September 24 2012 04:08 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2012 23:18 Dandel Ion wrote:I was saying Killing has a "higher chance", meaning I have less of a town read on him than I have on Kush. It's a direct comparison.
I don't currently think Killing is too scummy, but I aknowledge the possibility that he might be. He's pretty null to me though.
I don't think Kush is scum. In other words, I think Kush is town. Now that your past reads except for debears are gone, what are your current scum reads? I haven't seen you give any since the lynch. You discuss the possibility that killing might be scummier than kush but your read on him is null.
You'll have to wait until tomorrow, honeydew.
But fret not, It's pretty unlikely I'll get nightkilled, so I'm in no rush anyways.
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I'm here.
Oh man, I planned on doing a baller post on my likely scumteam today, which would have been debears + thrawn + atreides, but I wake up and read this recent development - debears casing thrawn, atreides bandwagoning and thrawn jumping on atreides as the alternative bandwagon...
Now, it's pretty unlikely those three are actually the scumteam, because even if they decided to strategically bus one of them, the whole counter on atreides is not how you'd do it - though thrawns vote does look like pure OMGUS and has no real substance.
So now, I'm convinced that there is one scum between thrawn and debears, which makes it a lot harder than if they are a scumteam.
Shit, I was pretty damn sure of the debears + thrawn team, given how they buddied up to each other all game.
But now it's either thrawn + ??? + ??? or debears + atreides + ???
I'm going to have to go through the thread and shit again.
@Jacob: You still planning to do a case on me?
Cause you've been promising it for a loooong time.
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Also, a no-lynch would be absolutely terrible and it would mean we are throwing the game.
Which I don't want to do.
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More importantly, if we have a DT, now would be the best time ever to claim.
(thrawn already said that, but it's trueeeee)
You don't even need to bring a red check, by now, I'd be happy with some green checks.
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On September 24 2012 21:40 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah kinda... but... in the case of you and kush like every second post of kush's could have mafia intent. Where as you were different. (also yes I know I am susceptible to confirmation bias happened all of last game (with the killing thing everything he said looked scummy to me)) However what do you think of my dandel read? or you should probably not tell me so I don't get more confirmation bias when I go though the filter...
Do you actually think you are capable of changing your mind?
Cause I don't, and I know how your case will turn out already.
I am, after all, apparantly on both your scumteams before you even looked through my filter. That's not even funny anymore.....
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On September 24 2012 21:44 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2012 21:41 Dandel Ion wrote:
More importantly, if we have a DT, now would be the best time ever to claim.
(thrawn already said that, but it's trueeeee)
You don't even need to bring a red check, by now, I'd be happy with some green checks. Yeah but you can't back up a DT claim because he was invisible *sigh my jokes are getting worse* I assume you mean cop?
No I obviously mean DarkTemplar, because I really want to make an Archon...
DT = detective = cop
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On September 24 2012 23:50 thrawn2112 wrote:
so dandel, what is going through your mind? you promised reads today
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=367548¤tpage=55#1094
Oh man, I planned on doing a baller post on my likely scumteam today, which would have been debears + thrawn + atreides, [...]
My plan hath been foiled by the developments the thread took while I was away/sleeping.
Like I said, I'm pretty convinced one of debears and you is scum. At the moment I'm still leaning towards debears scum.
But I would also not at all be surprised if it was you.
Atm I'm reading, thinking and reading again to determine which one of you is a pimp. I don't know for sure, yet.
But if debears is scum, atreides is too (also note the consecutive votes on thrawn, reeks pretty bad of communication between those two)
And if thrawn is scum, then Jacob is too (I call this "Scumteam Spam" in my head)
I am kind of disconcerted by the lack of an obvious 3rd scum, but at this as-good-as MYLO situation, I can't be picky.
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Also, Sharky, where the fuck you at?
I know you've been working hard to gain the title "King of Lurkers", but you're a confirmed town, so MAN THE FUCK UP and vote a scumread.
With any other player, I'd just tell everyone to sheep the confirmed town, but with Sharky, that'll do us a fat load of good....
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On September 25 2012 00:20 kushm4sta wrote:
##vote jacob
Do you agree that if jacob is scum, thrawn is too (and vice versa)?
If so, why don't you want to go for thrawn, who people already are willing to vote for?
Are you going to push for Jacob instead?
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##vote thrawn2112
Thrawn is scum
Jacob is scum too.
Either Killing or Atreides are the third one. My eggs are in Atreides' basket because he 1) busses thrawn and 2) thrawn makes a weak-ass case on him to further make him look townie after the flip.
I didn't really have a scumread on Atreides prior, neither on Killing. But the third scum is up for discussion when it's relevant.
For now, I say we should lynch thrawn.
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On September 25 2012 02:00 Atreides- wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2012 01:51 Dandel Ion wrote:
##vote thrawn2112
Thrawn is scum
Jacob is scum too.
Either Killing or Atreides are the third one. My eggs are in Atreides' basket because he 1) busses thrawn and 2) thrawn makes a weak-ass case on him to further make him look townie after the flip.
I didn't really have a scumread on Atreides prior, neither on Killing. But the third scum is up for discussion when it's relevant.
For now, I say we should lynch thrawn. You were leaning on debears earlier, but now you vote thrawn without a single word of explanation? And you accuse me of bandwagoning...even though I made it clear after the end of night 2 that I wanted thrawn lynched.
You can debate your place as the third scum. As I said, I'm not certain on the third.
But I did not just vote thrawn out of nowhere, so don't even try to suggest that.
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On September 25 2012 02:06 thrawn2112 wrote:
Dandel you have an amazing track record of bandwagoning onto the most popular cases.
You came in talking about remedy (I was pushing very hard against remedy directly prior to being scummy of rethos/you), you vote for stutters as he starts becoming the main bandwagon, and you eventually end up back on remedy, also a big bandwagon. Now you're voting for me based off (from what I can tell from what you;'re implying in your argument) the stuff that has happened recently... and I'm also the biggest bandwagon. Your only unique vote was for debears, who you unvoted as soon as someone else became the bandwagon, and since then you've barely mentioned him at all.
And you have an amazing track record of mislynching and trying to mislynch towns.
And neat wording right there:
and you eventually end up back on remedy, also a big bandwagon.
You probably didn't find enough examples, so you have to mention him twice, huh?
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The thing is that you try to make it sound as if Remedy was two bandwagons, but it really was just one.
I have mentioned debears often enough, methinks. Nobody is interested in debears being scum, and with my current theory, debears actually ISN'T scum. Which is a shame, I had a pretty strong read. But you know what? I am willing to admit I was most likely wrong about debears.
I think that Kush is town.
In fact, he is the most town.
I'm still null on Killing. How that's possible given the gamelenght?
It's the magic of lurking. Story of this game.
All of those you could've found out if you actually paid attention. Or maybe you did pay attention and just want to discredit me as a "bandwagoner". Who knows
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Appreciate what?
"when you have 7 people, and 4 are town, there other 3 are mafia?"
No shit, Sherlock
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On September 25 2012 07:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
dandel please tell me why you think I'm scum
Originally because of the second paragraph of this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=367548¤tpage=50#984
On September 23 2012 19:31 thrawn2112 wrote:
That case does influence my read of jacob to be more townish than I previously thought. Not because of the quality of the arguments (i'll let you know what I think about the actual case when I finish reading it) but because of the sheer amount of work he put into it and how he is actually very clear with his accusations which was my (and kush's) problem with his previous posting.
I'm starting to think that the interactions and accusations between me/jacob/kush (all varying degrees of the more active posters in the thread) suggests that there could be a large portion of mafia among the lurkers.
But since I now believe in Jacob being scum too, it's pretty clear that both of you are trying to at least appear active and (kinda) useful, while planning to mislynch a lurker, making this post twice as bad as I originally thought it was.
+ Show Spoiler +Also, because of this: On September 13 2012 12:42 thrawn2112 wrote:
ugh i wish i could (/in) but i only get internet for like 2 minutes a day at most lol
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On September 25 2012 08:15 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2012 02:51 Dandel Ion wrote:
The thing is that you try to make it sound as if Remedy was two bandwagons, but it really was just one.
I have mentioned debears often enough, methinks. Nobody is interested in debears being scum, and with my current theory, debears actually ISN'T scum. Which is a shame, I had a pretty strong read. But you know what? I am willing to admit I was most likely wrong about debears.
I think that Kush is town.
In fact, he is the most town.
I'm still null on Killing. How that's possible given the gamelenght?
It's the magic of lurking. Story of this game.
All of those you could've found out if you actually paid attention. Or maybe you did pay attention and just want to discredit me as a "bandwagoner". Who knows
You say you're null on killing, but then throw in a suggestive statement that there might be something suspicious about him... yet you have a null read on him. Time to grow some balls and stop subtly hinting at things that might be scummy. Is your read on him really null?
Yes it is.
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Because it was a lie, obviously.
You know who lies? Scum
You know who doesn't? Town
-> You must be scum
Logic A+
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EPT
