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TL Mafia LVII - Page 4

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DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 16:59 GMT
#1255
I am not suspicious of grush because he acts like an idiot or because his posting is bad. I am suspicious because he defends BKE and then backs away from it. Sheeps his case whilst hinting that he will flip green. When BKE claims he is suddenly certain when the natural inclination would be to further doubt the case against BKE. He then trashes his vote onto shady for no reason whatsoever. Despite calling BKE the best case right now.

-Motive:

Gain town cred by questioning what he knows will be a mislynch.

When he claims blue push the lynch to avoid medic saves and a NK

I have no fucking clue why he voted for shady so I will leave it at that.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:00 GMT
#1257
On September 09 2012 01:54 Hapahauli wrote:
Bah just woke up. Still catching up in the thread, but I'm surprised to see a couple of people actually thinking BKE is telling the truth after seeing this:

Show nested quote +
On September 08 2012 15:58 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Guys this lynch is not happening. Its like 12:00 PST I'll make a good case in the morning, but Im forced to say Im Watcher. Night One I visited BC and got back GK -_-.


This is impossible no? If GK indeed suicide bombed as many of us are assuming, isn't this a pretty obvious lie?


No.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:03 GMT
#1262
On September 09 2012 02:01 grush57 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 01:59 DarthPunk wrote:
I am not suspicious of grush because he acts like an idiot or because his posting is bad. I am suspicious because he defends BKE and then backs away from it. Sheeps his case whilst hinting that he will flip green. When BKE claims he is suddenly certain when the natural inclination would be to further doubt the case against BKE. He then trashes his vote onto shady for no reason whatsoever. Despite calling BKE the best case right now.

-Motive:

Gain town cred by questioning what he knows will be a mislynch.

When he claims blue push the lynch to avoid medic saves and a NK

I have no fucking clue why he voted for shady so I will leave it at that.

Because my post that explains it.................................................................................................................................
His posts are asking other players to do things, SOMETHING SCUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY


If you were sure SS was scum why are you now voting BKE when it seems like his wagon may falter?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:05 GMT
#1266
On September 09 2012 02:02 grush57 wrote:
Anyways, I know who I'll be moving my BOMB on tonight if I survive
Love and Kisses
<3


Mad hatter claim?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:08 GMT
#1272
On September 09 2012 01:27 Toadesstern wrote:
If we don't we're giving mafia the easiest time ever to just get in here "LOL I'm a mad hatter" and everyone insta unvotes because of something that can't be proven at all.


soon afterwards.


On September 09 2012 02:02 grush57 wrote:
Anyways, I know who I'll be moving my BOMB on tonight if I survive
Love and Kisses
<3


0_o
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:19 GMT
#1279
@ Austin Are you 100% opposed to the Grush lynch? Would you vote for him in order to consolidate away from BKE?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:23 GMT
#1280
On September 09 2012 02:10 grush57 wrote:
So, some of that was just trolling some of that was truth.
Austinmcc is good at this game.
BTW, Starsenses.
##Unvote
##Vote: Z-Boson


SO. Is BKE, Shady or Z - Boson Scummiest and why?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:29 GMT
#1287
On September 09 2012 02:28 grush57 wrote:
So BKE or Z Boson?

care to answer my question?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:35 GMT
#1294
On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.

I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.

Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim.


This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:45 GMT
#1301
On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.

I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.

Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim.


This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim.


I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1.

I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense.


Your interpretation of what is likely or not is based on your subjective perception of events. You started the wagon on BKE and thus your subjective perception of events is likely to be biased in a way that fits your case. If you want to talk about probability look at it this way.

We have no idea what the thought process behind the kills were. 2 people died. there is a 50% chance that each was a night kill target. Thus BKE claim is plausible.

But this is not relevant. What is relevant is the MOTIVATION.
Why would BKE claim watcher over other roles which are less verifiable (mad hatter) and why would he not say that he watched DrH rather than BC if, as you say, it was so obvious BC was the suicide target. It is natural to choose the most plausible chain of events if you are lying. If you are telling the truth... you say what actually happened even though this may make you look worse. (WIFOM i know but I think this is still relevant)
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:47 GMT
#1304
On September 09 2012 02:38 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.

I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.

Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim.


This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim.

Scum presumably used 1 KP and bombed.
2nd KP wasnt used? or you think the Mafia shot ottoxlol on our behalf?


If you read Palmars post. Could have been a save and no one was notified.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 17:57 GMT
#1309
On September 09 2012 02:51 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 02:45 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 02:35 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 02:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Thankfully things are getting active in here again, but I wanted to discuss the BKE fake-claim a bit.

I think all of us agree that the likely order of events last night consisted of double-stacking one person, while suicide bombing the other (between BC and DrH). BKE's watcher claim suggests that it was BC who got double-stacked and BM24 who got suicide-bombed.

Now unless something about the Day2 post suggests otherwise, this seems highly unlikely. BC was much more of a confirmed town (after outing Mattchew) than DrH was. To the average reader here, BC would seem like much more of a target for blue actions (watcher, medic, etc.) during the night. Isn't it much more likely for mafia to have suicide-bombed BC? There would be a much higher chance of blue's visiting BC after he caught the first mafia. I find it so unlikely that DrH was suicide bombed (over BC), and this is why I'm doubting the BKE claim.


This is irrelevant and not evidence. Regardless of your own opinion, mafia could have Bombed DrH and NK BC. It is possible. and thus BKE's claim is possible. Your preconceptions on what you would have done does not necessarily reflect what others did, and thus this in no way disproves BKE's claim.


I'm not disproving anything - I'm saying it's highly unlikely given the dynamics of town Day 1.

I'm talking about likelihood here. If you disagree with this, tell me why instead of spouting this "irrelevant" nonsense.


Your interpretation of what is likely or not is based on your subjective perception of events. You started the wagon on BKE and thus your subjective perception of events is likely to be biased in a way that fits your case. If you want to talk about probability look at it this way.

We have no idea what the thought process behind the kills were. 2 people died. there is a 50% chance that each was a night kill target. Thus BKE claim is plausible.

But this is not relevant. What is relevant is the MOTIVATION.
Why would BKE claim watcher over other roles which are less verifiable (mad hatter) and why would he not say that he watched DrH rather than BC if, as you say, it was so obvious BC was the suicide target. It is natural to choose the most plausible chain of events if you are lying. If you are telling the truth... you say what actually happened even though this may make you look worse. (WIFOM i know but I think this is still relevant)


if he was scum and actually delivered a kp on BC - whether they double stacked him or not - then claiming that he watched bc would make his claim proof against the possibility that he was tracked or that there was a real watcher on bc last night.


Wrong. Obviously they would send GK to kill BC/DrH as well as suicide. Which is exactly what BKE claims happened. this only checks out if they double stacked KP on BC.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 18:00 GMT
#1311
4.00am this is looking really sluggish. I don't want to Lynch BKE. can we get some concensus on an alternative?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 18:06 GMT
#1315
I don't like how BKE has gone quiet. I need to sleep and it looks doubtful that we can't get a switch happening anyway.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 08 2012 18:08 GMT
#1316
ok. I am out. Please consider what austin, toad and others have said about BKE. and consider my case on grush and his subsequent posts. night all.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 09 2012 03:02 GMT
#1424
On September 09 2012 11:50 Shady Sands wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 11:47 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:42 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:17 Hapahauli wrote:
I retract my vigi-shot call on Rewok. He mentions the "lynch for blood" stuff earlier in his filter, and I'm willing to chalk it up to bad town. His giant wall-o-text posts giving everyone null-reads actually reads town to me - seems like a genuine attempt to contribute, despite being useless.

However, I do think we should look into vigi-shotting [b]ShiaoPi[b]. Shiao is hardcore lurking in comparison to his other games as VT. Absolutely no content in Shaio's filter, and there are a couple of posts that fingerpoint like mad:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=47#929

Shaio originally wasn't posting because of "internet concerns." I believed Shiao at the time, but now it's becoming a habit.

Why are you calling for a vig shot on Shiao for lurking and no call for a vig shot on me for lurking? I'm fingerpointing too.


Do you think you're a better vig shot than Shaio? Do tell.

I asked you first, Hapa. Please answer


Yeah Hapa. Stop answering questions with questions. You have been extremely selective with your scum reads this game. I would also like to know why shaio over shady. Also how could you see Ottox as not scummy and BKE with a plausible watcher claim guaranteed scum. I am going to take a close look at your filter and XXI. Something is off about you.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 09 2012 03:02 GMT
#1425
On September 09 2012 11:59 Hapahauli wrote:
no.


Why the fuck not?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 09 2012 04:18 GMT
#1445
On September 09 2012 12:22 Hapahauli wrote:
And goddamnit, if you want the answer to why I'm calling a shot on ShiaoPi - META. He has barely a page of filter, which is completely inconsistent with any of his other town games. I even said that in my post too - not only are you lurking, but you don't fucking read.


Why are you upset that we wanted you to provide a reason for you Vig shot? and Shady is right. his meta is also WAY WAY off from all his other games. and yet you single out Shiao.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 09 2012 04:21 GMT
#1447
On September 09 2012 13:18 Maverick32x wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 12:54 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:43 Maverick32x wrote:
Well- with BKE's flip, I think we need to look at people who weren't involved in any discussion and voted anyways, or people who are lurking.... Lurking seems to be really popular in this game?

I'm thinking that we need to start putting pressure on the lurkers to try to stir something up there. I will start to look through some filters to get a better idea of who these people would be, but I figure that may be a good start.

Why not look at the people who led the charge on the BKE lynch?


Because I don't think mafia would put themselves out there THAT much for someone who was town. Especially considering the amount of lurkers that exist.


Don't think that way. It is bad.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
September 09 2012 04:31 GMT
#1455
On September 09 2012 13:17 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 13:15 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:59 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:53 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:49 Hapahauli wrote:
And as far as I'm concerned Shady, you've posted jack-shit in terms of your reads.

Put-up or shut-up.

Right, because nearly starting a counter-wagon to the BKE mislynch on grush57 does not qualify as a read. And in case you're wondering, right you and him are my top scumreads.



You made a case on GRush - if you think that's an actual read, you either haven't seen GRush play or you're smoking something that I want real bad right now.

Cases and reads are equivalent. If you think they're different, then, you, sir, are the drug addict.


So you made a read on Grush. You started a counter-wagon against someone who is traditionally the easiest mislynch in the game - someone who is going to behave just like that regardless of alignment. Yay for reads that matter!

Still waiting for an answer to this btw:

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 12:52 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:14 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 12:02 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:50 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:47 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:42 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 11:17 Hapahauli wrote:
I retract my vigi-shot call on Rewok. He mentions the "lynch for blood" stuff earlier in his filter, and I'm willing to chalk it up to bad town. His giant wall-o-text posts giving everyone null-reads actually reads town to me - seems like a genuine attempt to contribute, despite being useless.

However, I do think we should look into vigi-shotting ShiaoPi. Shiao is hardcore lurking in comparison to his other games as VT. Absolutely no content in Shaio's filter, and there are a couple of posts that fingerpoint like mad:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=47#929

Shaio originally wasn't posting because of "internet concerns." I believed Shiao at the time, but now it's becoming a habit.

Why are you calling for a vig shot on Shiao for lurking and no call for a vig shot on me for lurking? I'm fingerpointing too.


Do you think you're a better vig shot than Shaio? Do tell.

I asked you first, Hapa. Please answer


Yeah Hapa. Stop answering questions with questions. You have been extremely selective with your scum reads this game. I would also like to know why shaio over shady. Also how could you see Ottox as not scummy and BKE with a plausible watcher claim guaranteed scum. I am going to take a close look at your filter and XXI. Something is off about you.

I agree. Hapa's usually a pretty good scumhunter. His posts on Ottox in particular are just strange; almost inviting a vigi hit on Ottox but backing away enough to give himself plausible deniability. Town Hapa (in Newbie Mini XXIII) didn't play like this.


Oh haha I missed this - weren't you ranting for pages about me cheating in that game and getting lucky? Sounds like someone twisting meta to their own advantage.


So you felt that Ottox was town despite the fact he was scummy as shit. And you think Grush is town Despite looking scummy as shit. But you were 100% positive on BKE and tunnelled him all of day 2 without changing your read or your case because he 'flip-flopped' on Matt. DESPITE HIS CLAIM and with several of us making counter arguments?

Based on Flip flopping on Matt.


On September 04 2012 17:08 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 04 2012 16:21 Z-BosoN wrote:
All right, regarding the BC/Mattchew situation:

First of all, this post is wrong:

You are right, his fakeclaim doesn't prove he is mafia on its own. However, HIM ASKING FOR CLAIMS DOES. Why would a townie fakeclaim and attempt to get all blues to claim ? No townie day 1 should ever be this fuckign stupid. Even if he gets caught as mafia (as I have caught him) had anyone or if anyone proceeds to claim and a bunch of retard blues out themselves mafia is instantly ahead.


IIRC, he asked for people with the same role - noisy neighbor - to claim, not blues.

BC is making this main assumption:

No miller/neighbor is self aware in any game ever except odd pyp/ptp like setups as it defeats the purpose of the role. This game holds true to the same rule as normal games for the mechanic.


To put it simply, this is the main argument going on: how can he know he is a noisy neighbor if they are unaware?. Am I correct?

You have made it clear that you are 100% sure that this game does not include self-aware millers.
As a normal person, one could not make this assumption, as it would be statistical. Say 90% of games don't include self-aware millers. I have read the OP, and nowhere does it say that millers aren't self-aware, so you must have other reasons to know this, because no matter what, you say it is not an assumption.

The fact that you keep insisting would be ridiculous if you weren't indeed 100% certain, because, like sloosh said, you would most likely be lynched if he showed up town, making it a double town loss.

Did I get anything wrong here?

If not, ##Vote Mattchew






So you rail against all the reasoning behind the mattchew vote, say that there is zero evidence that he is lying and that it is based purely on conjecture, and then vote for him without adding anything to the case against him? Then you vote for him, completely contradicting the fact that you clearly state it is based on an assumption? o_0


I posted this on day one. You ignored it. Z - boson was similarly guilty. If you thought BKE was scum based on his interactions around Matt then you should have found Z - Boson suspicious also. And yet you don't mention him at all UNTIL Austin brings him up.


[B]On September 09 2012 05:38 Hapahauli wrote:
[b]@ austinmcc

Okay admittedly I'm a bit biased because of my meta-read, and I sat down to take a look at your case again.

The one thing I want some answers from Z-Boson is his ##Vote post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=21#413

I just don't understand what he's saying here. It's as if he criticizes the reasoning for voting Mattchew, then turns around and votes Mattchew.


You repeat what I posted day one and what Austin had been saying. It is suspicious as hell and yet you continue to tunnel BKE. And state that Z - Boson is town.

You are being very selective on who you believe is scum/town and it is based on no shared thought processes from what I can see.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
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