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On August 29 2012 11:20 ghost_403 wrote:
Well, that went a lot faster than expected, to say the least ^^
Tomorrow, I'll sit down and do the write up. I'm genuinely curious as to how exactly this happened. I mean, I expected the game to be slightly more volatile than the C9++ setup, but this is something else... Probably won't be hosting another F11 for a while.
Ghost, the real big problem was that I couldn't coordinate with Dandel after he went out of the game, and I never got a replacement to help me D2.
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Hey guys.
I was the cop. I misplayed day one by not being awake in time to save Weetee, if I was there I am certain we would have got Dandelion, and then town investigated Shady sands that night. I was instead too late to save weetee (my bad), and investigated dandelion instead knowing that he would be the next lynch target. He flipped red, so I made a non-committal move against him hoping to get him lynched without making myself a NK target. The momentum was good, and so he went down without too much fuss.
I was in a position where I could have either been very aggressive, as Alsn had got lynched and was the closest position to my own. If I had have been night-killed, the town would almost certainly have realised the pattern of anybody accusing SS and Dandelion goes down, and planned their next lynches accordingly. The other option was to not make too much noise, and silently secure both mafia (I was pretty certain it was Dandel Ion and SS), then rolecall and have them both lynched for an end-game gambit. This was the course I chose, but the fallout between the scum team preceded this eventuality making this course of action unnecessary.
@Thrawn: I was unaware that the roles were randomised, I made the assumption that all of the roles mentioned in the OP were present in the game, and this was a horrible thing to do. Even worse, I made mention of there being a cop, and a clever scum may have traced the basis of this assumption and got me lynched. I deliberately ignored any talk of there being cops from that point on hoping that nobody would catch on. While I think that at times you were conditionally irrational, I overplayed this hoping to lose you enough credit so that my reads would take precedence, without having to roll-call cop. I did have an inkling suspicion on you, but nothing in comparison to my reads on Dandel and SS.
@Alsn: Your death was not for nothing! You were my strongest town read from the start after thrawn, and when I started doubting him I was relying heavily on you being town. You getting NK made me much more certain of my reads, and gave me security against nightkills (though it turned out I wouldn't need this).
@Kush: I too think your rolecall was the best course of action under the circumstances. I don't think your 'noob trap' is the best play the majority of the time, but it is fun and made the game interesting. If it was in fact intentional, which I suspect it may have been, it did give me very clear signals on SS, and worked out for the best.
@SS: I pulled my tunneling back for two reasons:
a) I'm both busy and lazy, preferring to do less when at all possible. I also live in Australia which can make it difficult to get stuff done at the right time.
b) I was cop and didn't want to bring attention to myself if at all possible. Although apparently in the QT I was suspected by at least one person, I was getting no indicators that I needed to step up my game from within the thread, and so thought it best to lurk a bit.
It's unfortunate that there was such discontent within the mafia fold, this cut the game shorter than it normally would. On top of this, I'm pretty sure seven town to two mafia would be fairly town favoured statistically. Regardless, it is nice to win my first game, and I look forward to playing with you all in the future!!
<3
----,--'-@
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spag when I put that fos on mkfuba and you responded, I immediately thought that you and mk were a potential scumteam. I actually did pick up on how much you were overplaying how irrational you thought I was and the FOS seemed extremely uncalled for. I make a case against mk, and immediately someone puts an fos on me, calls me dumb without giving examples why, and doesn't actually respond to anything I said about mk? And then mk himself puts an fos against me? Apparently you did it with town motivations but at the time it really looked scummy. I ended up not committing to the read because I reread your filter and got a pretty strong town read from it so I decided to drop the issue until after the dandel flip. If dandel would have flipped green I would have probably thought you and mk were the scumteam.
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Yeah I figured as much. At the time I knew that Dandel would flip red, so I was going to use this to both convince you that I'm worth listening to (as we had been banging heads a fair bit), but also make the other town prioritise my opinion over yours so I could get town backing if Shady flipped red on my next investigation.
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yeah i just couldn't see the town motivations for that post at the time. now it makes sense knowing that you're cop... but it was definitely your scummiest post
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Also to clear up the 'experience' read on dandel.
In Newbie III (which I played with him) he was a key player for the town. Whether he's played a lot of games or not, he showed skills that I didn't think he was applying in this game.
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On August 29 2012 13:53 Lvdr wrote:
Also to clear up the 'experience' read on dandel.
In Newbie III (which I played with him) he was a key player for the town. Whether he's played a lot of games or not, he showed skills that I didn't think he was applying in this game.
I think if you would have explained that before the d1 wouldn't have been tricked by shady into doubting your case on dandel... sorry lol
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Also it seems my town meta is extremely scummy. Hasn't gotten me lynched yet lol.
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I think I got kinda lazy d1 because I was so convinced I got dandel. I thought if i tunneled hard enough, with no other real options(I thought) we would lynch and he would flip red.
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On August 29 2012 13:55 Lvdr wrote:
Also it seems my town meta is extremely scummy. Hasn't gotten me lynched yet lol.
my town meta is to be the direct and original cause of a D1 mislynch
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My town meta is to look slightly scummy to town and like a blue role to scum.
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I don't mean to say its intentional lol. Its just how its happened.
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Yeah, me either. I'm just not sure how to come up with convincing cases early. Like, my cases don't even convince myself XD
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On August 29 2012 11:53 Spaghetticus wrote:
... thought it best to lurk a bit.
I have never thought this.
On August 29 2012 11:53 Spaghetticus wrote:
It's unfortunate that there was such discontent within the mafia fold, this cut the game shorter than it normally would. On top of this, I'm pretty sure seven town to two mafia would be fairly town favoured statistically. Regardless, it is nice to win my first game, and I look forward to playing with you all in the future!!
In straight-up numbers, 7-2 is MASSIVELY mafia favored before counting in blue roles. If you had a mountainous 7-2 game and all lynches and nks are random:
D1 (7-2) 77% chance of lynching town
D2 (5-2) 71% chance of lynching town
D3 (3-2) 60% chance of lynching town (S win)
D4 (2-1) 67% chance of lynching town (S win) or 33% chance of lynching scum (T win)
D3 (4-1) 80% chance of lynching town (S win)
D4 (2-1) 67% chance of lynching town (S win) or 33% chance of lynching scum (T win)
D2 (6-1) 86% chance of lynching town (S win)
D3 (4-1) 80% chance of lynching town (S win)
D4 (2-1) 67% chance of lynching town (S win) or 33% chance of lynching scum (T win)
So basically what we see is, scum has a lot of paths to victory.
The odds of town winning with 2 correct lynches in a row is is a meager 5%, and even if town gets the first lynch right, you're looking at 25% chance of winning from that point.
At best, town's pulling in like a 20% winrate without accounting for power roles. 7-2 is only balanced because you give town a cop AND a doctor usually.
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That doesn't consider that there are only 2 scum to find. As we saw here, a somewhat unexpected d1 accusation turned out to be on point and smoked out scum 2.
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On August 29 2012 14:12 Lvdr wrote:
That doesn't consider that there are only 2 scum to find. As we saw here, a somewhat unexpected d1 accusation turned out to be on point and smoked out scum 2.
Well, it considers that there are 2 scum, it just doesn't consider that one might implicate the other. It's not about strategy. Indeed, it also doesn't consider that scum could vote as a bloc and fight town, making them very very strong in 2-scum LYLO.
It assumes utterly random voting and lynching. But the fact of the matter is, scum have scumtells, which makes this a bit easier, and associative tells if you flip one. Also, you get blues.
But the point is all this relies on scumhunting and playing. If this game was played by randomly-voting robots, town would lose a lot. Blues and scumhunting balance it.
EDIT: but to look at how this game played out and to assuming that 7-2 games are inherently town-favored is just incorrect. DL got what was coming to him given how he played, and Shady also scumslipped a lot. Newbie games are very swingy.
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On August 29 2012 14:24 Blazinghand wrote: Newbie games are very swingy.
I don't think anyone saw 24 ending up how it did
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On August 29 2012 14:30 thrawn2112 wrote:I don't think anyone saw 24 ending up how it did
GK did lolololo
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Oh really? Those are some good stats BlazingHand, thank you. TBH I was simply assuming it would be town favoured because otherwise the scum would not be required to take any risks, which lead to a very small chance of exposing yourself. If it is the case that Mafia are not required to take risks, then wouldn't they just act as townish as possible? Couldn't you simply not read your role slip and assume you're vanilla town, and act accordingly?
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On August 29 2012 14:42 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2012 14:30 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 29 2012 14:24 Blazinghand wrote: Newbie games are very swingy. I don't think anyone saw 24 ending up how it did GK did lolololo
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EPT
