Dwarf Fortress Mini Mafia - Page 30

Bluelightz

Indonesia2463 Posts

August 16 2012 15:05 GMT

#581

On August 17 2012 00:02 Mordanis wrote:
Do we have the option to no-lynch though? If we don't then MYLO=LYLO, unless we can lynch a host or something

No. Someone will die in the end.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

August 16 2012 15:05 GMT

#582

gg all, and good luck.

Sorry Bluelightz for being relatively inactive. It was hard to find motivation to keep playing when the whole town was basically lurking

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 16 2012 15:08 GMT

#583

Lol christ, we're so boned.

Woulda been nice if you claimed and gave us your protection targets in that last post Keir - we at MYLO (LYLO, same thing this game) anyway, woulda been nice just to know. gg

If I'm not killed, I'll write up a full case with quotes and opinions to go along with it.

Always something you should do just before the day post comes out <3

Bluelightz

Indonesia2463 Posts

August 16 2012 15:16 GMT

#584

On August 17 2012 00:05 Keirathi wrote:
gg all, and good luck.

Sorry Bluelightz for being relatively inactive. It was hard to find motivation to keep playing when the whole town was basically lurking

Not getting banned is good in my book :D

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 16 2012 15:16 GMT

#585

On August 16 2012 08:50 slOosh wrote:
Gah. I'll be posting my full thoughts hopefully nearer to deadline this time.

Super glad you followed through on this... ~_~

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 16 2012 15:26 GMT

#586

Hey DYH, where are your thoughts at? Haven't heard from you in a bit

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

August 16 2012 16:37 GMT

#587

I think we are screwed. I think I need to review the whole damn thread and do a little filter digging. The only person that I know enough to make a case on right now is CL, which is indicative of tunneling, which I can't afford to be doing in LYLO.

We can't afford this town's general activity level in LYLO. I'm going to be stepping it up today, please do the same.

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 16 2012 16:52 GMT

#588

I will be doing the same when my time permits.

The remaining 2 scum are in Mord, Shipoopie, and sloosh. I'm leaning Mord/shipoopie, but I want to hear from sloosh. He said he'd be posting near deadline, but he has yet to say anything.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

August 16 2012 17:40 GMT

#589

I think we should definitely double lynch right now. Since town has 2 more people than scum and no medic, the results of lynching no scum are identical for single and double lynch. The chances of winning instantly by nailing 2 scum are low, but possible. The main thing though is that if we double lynch we're much more likely to hit 1 scum, and we get double benefits from this: We go to the second LYLO with 2 town vs. 1 scum (higher chance of getting scum) and of course we are more likely to go to the second LYLO.

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 16 2012 17:52 GMT

#590

There are 5 people left. You, me, sloosh, shipoopie, DYH (unless I'm missing someone).

If we double lynch and only get 1 scum, we'd be at 2v1 going into night, and D5 it's 1v1 scum wins. We would have to lynch both scum now.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

August 16 2012 17:57 GMT

#591

Lol I miscounted. You're totally right.

slOosh

3291 Posts

August 16 2012 20:19 GMT

#592

Gah sorry guys, overslept and was late for my presentation.

Double lynch will not work because to do it we need a split of 2-2 on the two scum, which requires co-operation of scum since there are only three of us townies, let alone the danger of if we lynch scum and town, where the scum can just last minute switch so only town dies. We need to consolidate early on one scum target - thinking ahead in this scenario is very dangerous.

The scum we need to lynch today is ShiaoPi.

Vote Analysis:
D1:

On August 09 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote:
At the moment I really do not know if it is that good to lynch prphlz...It is a lurker lynch bascially, flipping a coin on the chance that it really is different from his meta because he is scum or that he simply lacked time.

Reading through the latest points of scib got me convinced that Forumite might actually be scum. Coupled with Mord actually starting to make sense, when I look at it from his point of view (no offense

) and my discomfort with a prphlz lynch I expressed above, I will change my vote to Forumite. Since my vote on Mord achieved some success in getting him to post more sensible and it probably won't get any traction looking at it in 3 hours to deadline.

##unvote
##Vote: Forumite

Toward the end of D1 ShiaoPi puts his vote straight onto Forumite's mislynch after prplhz posts his "defense" and town starts swaying. See how the first bold line supports and encourages people to move their votes away from prplhz. But who is he switching onto? The second bold line shows how he says he is convinced that Forumite might be scum. It's very safe and distancing himself when Forumite flipped town. Also note how he says Mord makes sense - I'll address it later but we can see the start of how he is on the fence with Mord and only goes after him when CL starts to.

D2:
ShiaoPi was unable to access internet the whole cycle for a legitimate reason. Unfortunate because he posts 1 hour before deadline when prplhz is already set up to be lynched, and furthermore because his last post before this one prplhz was just another name in a list of equally slightly suspicious people (amongst Mordanis and HiroPro)

On August 10 2012 08:23 ShiaoPi wrote:
Mord:
I believe my stance on him is quite clear from my filter. What I really do not understand is, while he is kind of right to place some distrust on marv his vote seems like such a throwaway especially with him being absent right after. But in regards to his voteswitch he delievers explanation and he makes sense with it. Also I think his play got a tad better since I called him out. I guess wait and see has to be the course of action on him. If he does some (wholly) decent case not like the against me or parts of the one against Marv I could see him as town, but until then no.

Custos:
I liked his play a lot (maybe biased because he was agreeing with me), he is also taking clear stances, trying to convince people of his opinions and as a bonus also did not doublelynch when he had the possibility (that would have been suicidal as scum though if both flipped town, so it might not matter that much.)

Conclusively I want to keep an eye open on prphlz and Mordanis, while I want Hiro to answer my question before I judge him.
as a heads-up I won't have too much time tomorrow and might not make it back before the deadline, will try though. Crashing out now at later than 1 AM. Night!

We see here that ShiaoPi is ok with Mordanis, and putting him on the sidelines. Also notable is that this is where he buddies up to Custos when Custos was not in any danger of being lynched D1. Scum like to buddy town so they aren't suspected.

Post analysis:
I've already pointed out a HUGE contradiction in ShiaoPi's play - that he went in with the mentality that Mordanis is scum and nitpicked his filter for information to incriminate him. This is something only scum do - townies look at information first and then make a conclusion. Since scum already know alignments, they can only pretend to do this, but here he messes up setting up the mislynch and shows how he is just looking for information.

On August 14 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:

Show nested quote +

What are you talking about? DYH posted his case after Mordanis' vote, and so how does "piling onto CL" make sense if he did it before? (I doubt you are insinuating DYH is scum as well).

Show nested quote +

What the heck is this?

It's really looking like Mordanis is a suspicious looking towny that's being set-up. Shiaopi is flat out going in with the mentality that Mordanis is scum and nitpicking his filter.

##Vote: Shiaopi

His defense is as follows:

On August 15 2012 18:04 ShiaoPi wrote:
@sloosh:
That's what happens if you miss Day2 almost completely. Those were statements from Day 1, where I thought it might have been possible that he really is just busy. Following Day 2 he still did nothing and if I had been present I would have stated my change of stance on him much earlier, can't do that though without bending time so yeah take this explanation or keep hammering me.

Although it looks like Mord will live another day, I am fine with a risk lynch.

Have to ask though, if risk flips town and Hiro as well, what are your reads?

Now if you read the earlier parts of my case, you would know by now that ShiaoPi thought Mordanis' D1 play was OK! That it was looking better! There are two glaring contradictions here. One is that he is falsifying information to push a case. The second is that the logic he uses to push Mordanis is in fact things that he himself are guilty of. If you read his D1 stance and his D3 stance, they are totally at odds.

On August 16 2012 01:07 ShiaoPi wrote:
gg to both...

anyone mind thinking about lynching Mord now? :>

Once the risk mislynch happens you can see him trying to redirect us to lynch Mordanis! You see him kinda go-with-the-flow, pretending to push for Mordanis but agreeing with whatever mislynch appears! He doesn't ever fight to get Mordanis lynched, which betrays his hesitation to actually push for the lynch.

ShiaoPi is scum and we need to gather all votes on him. If even just one of our votes are misplaced, scum can do a last minute vote switch. We need to consolidate early and fast.

##Vote: ShiaoPi

I'm going on a trip today where internet access will be iffy, so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to respond / explain, but I'll be back in time for the night to discuss the final scum. We can still do it guys!

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

August 16 2012 21:08 GMT

#593

Wait, what do you mean by iffy, slOosh? Will you be able to post later or won't you?

slOosh

3291 Posts

August 16 2012 21:47 GMT

#594

I don't know, hence the word iffy. Thoughts on my case or do you think there is someone more surefire scum? Because we NEED to hit scum today.

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

August 16 2012 22:04 GMT

#595

It matters quite a bit if you can't. If you can't post then our options for lynching are narrowed down to either Shiao or slOosh. We need all 3 townies on the same person to ensure that vote switching at the deadline won't lose the game right there. So if you are not available for switching your vote then the only decision left to the rest of us is whether or not shiaopi or slOosh is more likely scum.

As for your case slOosh, it has merit. I'll elaborate later, busy atm.

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 17 2012 00:20 GMT

#596

Sloosh, I think your case is pretty spot on. I have been tunneling Mord so hard (I do still think he's likely scum) that Shipoopie flew completely under my radar, and no one is at fault for that other than myself.

Mord pointed out that Shipoopie was hiding behind everything that I was doing involving the Mord case. I missed the fact that he defended Mord D1.

I'm good with shipoopie dead today. I'm looking forward to anything you can add DYH. I'm still in the process of rereading.

##vote ShiaoPi

DoYouHas

United States1140 Posts

August 17 2012 01:47 GMT

#597

Something is very off about this. Think about it. slOosh and CL are voting Shiaopi. This means that to slOosh and CL the remaining scum are shiaopi and Mord. For a while now I have thought that 1 of them was scum, but not both. They have been at one another's throats this whole game, which doesn't scream scum team to me.

So, if they are not the scum team, that means that one of CL and slOosh is scum. Which makes this lynch on Shiaopi much more likely to be a mislynch. If this line of thinking is accurate then 2/3 of slOosh, CL, and Mord are scum.

This is what I want discussed. How likely is a Mord/shiaopi scum team? Because if it isn't likely, then both of you are on the wrong person. I can see the possibility that they have been opposing each other but not actually looking to get each other killed all game for just such a situation as this. But the level of play this game has been pretty low, so I would be surprised if they committed themselves to something like that so early.

Thoughts?

Custos Luna

United States96 Posts

August 17 2012 01:59 GMT

#598

Really? You wouldn't expect the remaining scum members to want to appear against each other?

They've been somewhat targetting each other, but neither has put ANY real effort into getting the other lynched.