EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 50
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 12 2012 22:03 Dandel Ion wrote: @24-hour-day While the lynch is clear TODAY, I don't know about the next one. Yeah, some people already decided on the third scum, just depending on Prome's scum flip, but I haven't. Maybe it could be easy and we'll get it over with quickly. But we might also miss something. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for today (day 2) to be shortened, but I'm not so sure if I want 24-hour-days permanently. Oh this is JUST for Day 2! Not permanently - we'll definetly need the extra time to find #3. I still think it's Shady. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
I want your thoughts on that : - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#918 - (EBWOP) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#919 Do you think it would be valid if Promethelax turns red ? I honestly can't choose between Mkfuba and Shady Sands ... I feel like Shady Sands talks more, so can make more mistakes (even if he's town, it can be bad play. Remember me on Day 1, I had a rope around my neck ! xD) Regarding your case against him, I like it, but I'm not too sure of your point "Shady's early night 1 actions". On August 12 2012 10:57 Hapahauli wrote: + Show Spoiler + Shady's Early Night 1 Actions On August 11 2012 11:25 Shady Sands wrote: Note that I reconfirmed my vote on you even after people hit the 6 votes necessary to lynch GK. If I was really scum, why would I do that? This post just reeks of OMGUS. That being said, great job town on wagoning the bastard. I'll admit, I thought his posting was similar to his XXII meta (where he was town), so I didn't think he looked that scummy. In terms of confirmed townies, I'm going to say that Hapa is almost for sure confirmed now, since it's very unlikely scum would bus the GF on D1 (at most they would bus a goon.) By the same logic, the first guy to vote for GK, Lvdr, should also be cleared. Hapa, Lvdr, what are your top reads going into D2? Interesting right? He declare two obvious confirmed townies, then asks them a question about who their top reads are? Townies would have taken the opportunity to scumhunt here. ShadySands is "taking the temperature" of the situation - no one has a 2nd scumread, and he doesn't want to scumhunt. He wants to see what the town knows as opposed to scumhunting. On August 11 2012 13:38 Shady Sands wrote: I just read that encryption rules post from Prome. There are three possibilities, which are all plausible: 1) He's scum, trying to fake blue 2) If he hasn't rolled blue before, this could be a legitimate question (although putting it in the open thread is a little wierd) 3) He's a vet trying to bait a NK 1 and 3 are the likeliest--3 being most likely, ironically enough, because scum Prom in XXI was easily much smarter and more discreet with his posts. In this post, Shady Sands soft defends Promethelax despite having an FOS on him. Again, strange, mafia-oriented behavior. I think Shady Sands is bussing Promethelax, more on this later In the first part, you mention the fact that he's not scumhunting and is just trying to take the temperature. You forget that Shady Sands gives us 2 reads on confirmed townies and then, he proceeds to ask them. In a way, he could ask these specific players because he knows he won't hear bullshit from a possible scum. Note that I haven't been scumhunting that much either on Night 1... It's not a huge tell in my opinion, it's more a null tell. Other than looking at a connection between Promethelax and Mkfuba, I haven't done that much other than looking at what people had to say. In the second part, you're saying that he's soft defending Promethelax. I think that it's more based on gut feelings if you say that =/ If you look back at the quote you used, you can see that his first point is about Promethelax being scum. It's the first thing that poped in his mind. This, gives me the indication that he didn't think so long to write that down because it was just clear to him. @Mkfuba07 : I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me ! I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2) | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
... I need to rest at this point, but my quick reads on the other three: YourHarry: His main focus seems to have been telling me I'm too good at being town. He gave me far more pressure than I imagined I'd get from the whole thread on these two posts. His attempt to turn my pro-town plans into evidence of scummy fabrication is annoying, and defending my reads against these attempts is distracting me from other matters, but I can't tell if it's scummy. Kronen: His vote timing, as well as Shady's, send off some alarms in my head. If they were the remainder of the scumteam, then they sure slipped in right at the nick of time. I was working on this line of reasoning when I realized that I wasn't going to be able to keep my eyes open long enough to make it through. I'll flush it out in the morning. Promethelax: The most notable thing about Promethelax to me is how little I've thought about Promethelax. I'll go through his filter when I've rested. It takes me forever to analyze things, and I couldn't start a filter from scratch right now. After I ask him for his opinions on the other non-confirmed players, he gives a bunch of null-reads. Mafia wouldn't post this - in this situation, mafia needs to get as much towncred as possible in light of the information gained on Day 1. Regarding my case on Shady Sands - I think your objections against Night 1 are valid, and can be interpreted otherwise, however, given the context of his play, I find the explanations I gave of his actions very likely. If Promethelax somehow doesn't flip red, Shady Sands would be my top mafia suspect still. I find his behavior near the D1 lynch deadline scummy, and IMO, him "taking the temperature of the town" then immediately FOS'ing a hypothetical townie Promethelax would make him look even worse. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
Sad that we can't get to the lynch right away !  | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On August 13 2012 00:17 Sideni wrote: ... @Mkfuba07 : I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me ! I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2) I am hesitant... but I'm a Vanilla Townie. Not that anyone should take my word for it. | ||
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Blue roles would also be in blue. | ||
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2) | ||
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Sideni
Canada79 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
I think I know what's going on. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On August 13 2012 03:55 Dandel Ion wrote: If we have a medic, I request a save on Sideni during night 2. I think I know what's going on. Absolutely seconded. | ||
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
Hapa has put an enormous amount of pressure on Shady, but in a way I find potentially suspicious. As long as prome flips red, it's extremely unlikely hapa is mafia -- but it is a possibility that could come into play in later days if the third mafia proves difficult to find. Alternatively, if prome flips green Hapa would not be immediately suspicious (there is no way for town prome to actually know hapa is busing) but again could be a good target if the mafia turn out to be difficult to find. All that being said: here is my case (stated from Hapa IS mafia POV) Hapa buses GK as inactive leader. He is able to 'miraculously' pick out the godfather because he knows who the godfather is. NK: Killing an unconfirmed townie maintains Hapa's voting block of confirmed townies. Hapa's case against Shady: In his first post accusing Shady, he claims The answer is ShadySands. He's the only guy without serious suspicion on him. This is simply incorrect. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#907 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#914 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=47#926 Me and Mkfuba both point suspicion at Shady. Next Hapa declares an intent to tunnel Shady no matter what happens with Prome Why else would Promethelax make such a big deal about including ShadySands in his suspicion list? Secondly, I believe there's a good case to be made against ShadySands even if Promethelax doesn't flip red. This seems to show mafia mentality because it completely ignores how surprising it would be for prome to flip green, and that town's previous assumptions would have to be challenged. It would also be convenient for Hapa-as-scum to continue his mislynch gravy train. The point at which I would likely want to lynch Hapa would be if there is if prome AND Shady flip green Next, Hapa demands Shady give him a better target from the Confirmed Townies: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#964 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#966 I think this is the biggest tell for Hapa. Shady defends himself very well here and I completely agree Please explain to me how me coming in with a random accusation on someone with a lot of towncred qualifies as scumhunting. Hint: it's not. Pressuring me this way only makes it more, not less, likely that whatever case I come up with is hasty and half-baked, and less usable as a result. Shady puts forward the possibility that one of the confirmed townies is actually mafia. This is possible, but if true it would be impossible to pinpoint who the mafia is because, well, confirmed town are confirmed. Hapa responds to this by applying even more pressure without considering infiltration AT ALL. For as skilled of a player as Hapa, this shows 'lynch-train' thinking instead of considering all posibilities. Hapa basicly admits here that no matter who Shady makes a case for it will be implausible. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#969 To me, town Hapa would take this as a warning to slow down and not tunnel so hard. Next, Hapa's case. I still support lynching shady before Hapa, so I will focus on parts I think would make Hapa mafia in the future. Given a Shady green-flip (red flip I think game is over) Overall the case feels contrived and still has no doubt regarding the situation of a prome green flip. Shady does Jack Shit Day 1 Huh what? He ignores my bolded point and focuses on the least important part of my logic! In addition, Shady Sands is the only force against the GK lynch, and does so in a way that twists my wording and logic. These are reasonable suspicions, but don't seem to be the basis of a slam-dunk case that would be correct even if prome flips green. Summary: My top scum is still PROME. 2nd scum is Shady. However, if both flip green I think this case against hapa will have some traction and be worth considering, based on intense tunneling by Hapa. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Regarding GK being "inactive - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=34#667 GoodKarma's last post was 1.5 hours before the lynch deadline. GK is lurky, but certainly not inactive. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489#13 Look at GoodKarma's /in post in Newbie XXIV - posted 1.5 hours after he gets lynched. He's clearly active. Also, for me to bus GK is one thing, but for GK to agree to it is another. This is what makes this situation implausible. Regarding me "tunneling" ShadySands - This is wrong. I was heavily questioning mkfuba earlier in the night until I saw the NK. Then I switched to Shady Sands. As it stands, Shady Sands has not defended himself yet! Why would I move my suspicions off him? It's been less than a day. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I tunneled you until I thought you were town. Then I tunneled iamperfection until I thought he was town. Then Axero. Then Promethelax (who basically proved himself to be mafia... lol). Then mkfuba. And now Shady Sands, who has yet to prove himself town. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
So you all know, I'll be leaving to visit family in about 3 hours, and the internet there is... unreliable. I think I'll be able to post (I'll have my laptop) but it's failed me in the past. I should be back in my own apartment sometime Tuesday. You have my vote for D2. | ||
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