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On July 29 2012 08:09 Shady Sands wrote:
Another thing to note:
Zorkmid and Obvious both ended up shifting to Golbat with minimal analysis at all. I'd say Zork looks the quietest between the two, but Obvious also strikes me as a little odd too, since he popped into the thread 10 minutes after Golbat's lynch without commenting once in the prior six hours, even though he was trying to get me lynched and people were busy bandwagoning Golbat. Normally, I'd expect someone who was trying to aim for a lynch on someone to at least argue their case before the lynch when the town was heading in the opposite direction.
I have a few hunches on where we should go next, but I'd like everyone to read through the above posts first.
I've been Partying for the last two days, just had a birthday.
I did post ample reasoning for my vote against Golbat, it's here. I made my vote post from a Blue Jays game, (we won 8-3 yea!) but basically nothing of note happened in the thread since that analysis post, so I felt his strange play best merited my vote. (How fucking wrong was I? And 6 others as well. Not a good start).
I'll make another analysis post in a little while.
How long until night?
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
1hr. Can people make sure they've sent night actions to both ghost and me, ta.
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First off, I want to apologize for my lack of activity during the night. Anyways, lynching a vig D1 isn't great, but as long as we lynch correctly tonight we'll be on a fairly good track. Over that, we've generated a lot of discussion. About 12 pages D1, which should give us enough content to analyze for a good long time. We took a pretty serious hit, but I'm confident we can recover.
Anyways, I've been enlisted to do a ton of work and I don't have time to do much analyzing, but I have had more time away from the computer to think. The main goals of the mafia for the D1 lynch were to force a mislynch (unless they are really bad at bussing :D), and put themselves in a position where they can relatively easily avoid a D2 lynch. They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2. The people who didn't vote for Golbat are DarthP, Alan, Obvious, Promethelax, and Golbat himself. Darth was tunelling me all day, Alan defended Golbat, Obvious posted two real posts, and Promethelax's play is confusing me too much right now. Right now, Alan, Obvious, and Promethelax are the people I'll be looking at the most. Obvious has the perfect excuses in line (I was away and I voted for Shady), Alan's soft defenses strike me as suspicious (This player seems kind of scummy, but this player seems much more scummy, so vote for him), and I really need to figure out what Promethelax has been trying to accomplish. Sorry again for the brevity, I hope someone else will be able to use this if I die tonight :C
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So I only got back now and read through the thread. Apparently people still don't see the need to be more active in this game. Voting your strongest scum read and then abstain from further discussion is not exactly pro town behaviour. Especially if there was so much worth of discussion and several people just did not care to comment on other scum candidates expect for Golbat.
Keep in mind please that I am not satisfied with goodkarma's (non-existent) response to my accusation. Entering the thread and shifting the discussion from scum hunting to policy lynches ... this is not town play! I still have goodkarma marked as my strongest scum read.
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Just going to throw out a few things:
First, I understand that everyone has RL commitments that will keep them from babysitting this thread. However, claiming RL commitments post-facto, after people have called out suspicious absences, will make you look scummy. This is because as the game goes on post timing (and seeing who is bandwagoning on who) becomes a very important method of analysis. If we accept all post-facto RL excuses as valid, then it makes this sort of analysis useless.
Second, here are some cases to look at:
a) Mordanis
After looking through his D1 posts, ironically enough, it was his post where he switched focus to analyzing my statistics claims that made me want to exonerate him of being scummy. That shows that he was not irrationally focused on Golbat. That being said, though, I think we should all keep in mind Mordanis' logic for going after Golbat:
Golbat makes post that sounds accusatory without proper evidence + Golbat calls for end to debate = Golbat is scummy
Remove the second part of that equation and Mordanis' case on Golbat (and all our reads on Golbat) fall flat. I think this is something to take note of here--I think this was a good case, but it was mostly because Golbat made a pretty bad mistake in calling for an end to debate with 40 hours to go in the day that Golbat ended up getting lynched.
I'm also waiting for Mord's response to better flesh out why he initially pushed for the Golbat lynch. I think the town deserves an explanation given that Golbat flipped Vig.
b) Obvious
I'm still not satisfied with Obvious' lack of defense of his own position prior to the D1 lynch. Obvious hasn't attempted to respond to this argument yet.
c) Promethelax
After reading through Keir's posts on Prome's inactivity, I'm getting a little troubled too by Prome's play this game. Put simply, he was about 3x as active in Mafia XIX (when he was mafia) than in this game, and his analysis in this game has been mostly circumstantial as opposed to mutually supportive.
Second, given that Keir knows Prome's playstyle the best, I'm going to go ahead and state that if Keir gets NK'd my suspicion will fall heavily on Promethelax as suggesting the NK to the rest of the scum team. Given that Keir hasn't been posting much of substance (but mostly been focusing on trying to confirm townies) it doesn't make sense for scum to go after him as opposed to another, more "case-oriented" player.
d) Goodkarma
My read on GK is still pretty gray. I haven't had the time to read through his latest posts in the filter yet, but given that a lot of people in the town are beginning to look at him, I will do so as well.
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EBWOP: Just saw Mord's post re: Golbat lynch and it looks pretty good. Scratch my earlier criticism, wrote that before I read it.
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They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2.
I think Mordanis hits the nail right on the head here--this is the main lens through which we should be analyzing every single D1 post. Voting order is very important here. Who joined the Golbat train, and when?
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Remove the second part of that equation and Mordanis' case on Golbat (and all our reads on Golbat) fall flat. I think this is something to take note of here--I think this was a good case, but it was mostly because Golbat made a pretty bad mistake in calling for an end to debate with 40 hours to go in the day that Golbat ended up getting lynched.
EBWOP: My point here is basically don't make these sorts of mistakes in the future--since scum has the advantage in bandwagoning people, and these sorts of slips give easy reasons to bandwagon, it means giving up a lot of edge to scum.
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United States1825 Posts
End of Night 1
![[image loading]](http://www.videogamefigures.com/store/pc/catalog/sm0723.jpg) Figure 3. There's no way this can end badly.
Something about lynching of Golbat got to goodkarma. Deep down, he knew that an innocent man had hanged today, and he knew it would be a long time before he would sleep well again. Walking home, he found himself at an intersection. One path lead to his house, the other to the local watering hole. After drowning some of his sorrows, he found himself back at the same intersection, and this time, decided it was time to go home.
A still drunk goodkarma was awoken several hours later by a knock at his door. Getting down the stairs is a challenging task during that awkward time in between being drunk and being hung over, but he somehow managed to make it to his front door. Looking outside, he couldn't see anything in the inky black night. He opened the door and was greeted by a small Bomb Omb plushie someone had left on his welcome mat. Understandably confused, he picked it up.
Sometimes, the Bomb Omb plushie delivered to your doorstep in the middle of the night isn't actually a Bomb Omb plushie.
This was not one of those times.
"Well, that's kind of weird" goodkarma muttered to himself before closing the door and going back to bed.
Day 2 has begun! You have 48 hours to vote for the next lynch.
All names used in the nightpost are strictly flavor.
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United States1825 Posts
Everyone, I will shortly be leaving on vacation. (Presuming I make it back,) I should be home late Wednesday. In the meantime, I leave you all in the very capable hands of one Mr. Marvellosity. If you have any questions, please contact him first. Have fun!
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On July 30 2012 06:01 ghost_403 wrote:End of Night 1
Figure 3. There's no way this can end badly. Something about lynching of Golbat got to goodkarma. Deep down, he knew that an innocent man had hanged today, and he knew it would be a long time before he would sleep well again. Walking home, he found himself at an intersection. One path lead to his house, the other to the local watering hole. After drowning some of his sorrows, he found himself back at the same intersection, and this time, decided it was time to go home. A still drunk goodkarma was awoken several hours later by a knock at his door. Getting down the stairs is a challenging task during that awkward time in between being drunk and being hung over, but he somehow managed to make it to his front door. Looking outside, he couldn't see anything in the inky black night. He opened the door and was greeted by a small Bomb Omb plushie someone had left on his welcome mat. Understandably confused, he picked it up. Sometimes, the Bomb Omb plushie delivered to your doorstep in the middle of the night isn't actually a Bomb Omb plushie. This was not one of those times. "Well, that's kind of weird" goodkarma muttered to himself before closing the door and going back to bed.
Day 2 has begun! You have 48 hours to vote for the next lynch.
Does this mean GK is confirmed town?
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MEDIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think!????????????
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Day post is flavour only, there are no clues to night events within it
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Nice save/roleblock :D Heading off to bed now but will be back for scum hunting first thing in the morning! Be warned scum <3
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On July 30 2012 06:04 marvellosity wrote:
Day post is flavour only, there are no clues to night events within it
Thanks. I thought the post meant someone had shot GK and then someone else medic'd him.
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On July 30 2012 06:04 Mordanis wrote:
MEDIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think!????????????
There are two possibilities.
1) Scum elects not to use kp, because they want to fake a medic.
2) We have a functioning medic who also now has a confirmed green/blue as well.
Scenario 2 is very good for us. It is our best outcome possible on night 1. Scenario 1
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On July 30 2012 06:12 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 06:04 Mordanis wrote:
MEDIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think!???????????? There are two possibilities. 1) Scum elects not to use kp, because they want to fake a medic. 2) We have a functioning medic who also now has a confirmed green/blue as well. Scenario 2 is very good for us. It is our best outcome possible on night 1. Scenario 1
EBWOP:
Continued--> Scenario 1 means scum is very confident in their ability to lead us on a mislynch, and/or also wants to be able to fake roleclaim medic in the future.
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On July 30 2012 06:09 Ange777 wrote:
Nice save/roleblock :D Heading off to bed now but will be back for scum hunting first thing in the morning! Be warned scum <3
This is also a 3rd possibility: we have a RB who knows of a confirmed red, now.
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ghost, you gave me such a heart attack lol. When I first read your post I thought I was dead...
Great story though. Five stars  .
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EPT
