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On August 04 2012 00:46 Obvious.660 wrote:
Hey Jingle, if I may have a moment of your time. I'm about to head out the door for the rest of the day but I wanted to ask you about something. Based on our last game together, you played a fairy suspicious-of-all town and weren't abashed of moving on to better targets as they sprung up. My question to you is this: do you not find it more suspicious than the situation you are looking at with Ange that Zorkmid has come under fire recently and the town is suddenly super active? This Mord case seems like a direct counter-wagon to Zork, the kind that appears when scum is close to getting lynched. Given that Mord has been under vague suspicions since the beginning of the game, don't you think it's fair that you take a good shake at voicing at least your own opinion on the case I and others have been making against Zork? Ange may be suspicious and all but you can see for yourself that there are bigger fish to deal with today. I'm leaving for about 13 hours right after this post it's just something that occurred to me overnight trying to fall asleep.
I think that in a game going this well for scum, a direct counter wagon would be incredibly stupid, throwing someone under the bus would be better. At the very least, I think the scum votes are probably split, unless they're completely ignoring their coach, because their coach would be telling them not to risk guilt by association on the entire team when they're doing this well with so many sheep in town.
Long story short, it's possible, but I personally find it unlikely due to the incredible level of risk involved, and wouldn't be terribly surprised if both are actually town.
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On August 04 2012 01:00 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2012 00:46 Obvious.660 wrote:
Hey Jingle, if I may have a moment of your time. I'm about to head out the door for the rest of the day but I wanted to ask you about something. Based on our last game together, you played a fairy suspicious-of-all town and weren't abashed of moving on to better targets as they sprung up. My question to you is this: do you not find it more suspicious than the situation you are looking at with Ange that Zorkmid has come under fire recently and the town is suddenly super active? This Mord case seems like a direct counter-wagon to Zork, the kind that appears when scum is close to getting lynched. Given that Mord has been under vague suspicions since the beginning of the game, don't you think it's fair that you take a good shake at voicing at least your own opinion on the case I and others have been making against Zork? Ange may be suspicious and all but you can see for yourself that there are bigger fish to deal with today. I'm leaving for about 13 hours right after this post it's just something that occurred to me overnight trying to fall asleep. I don't see how the mord case is a 'counter-wagon' to anything. Read through the thread. The case on mord began before the case on zork even started. Even Ange777 made a case on mord before she started her case on Zork. The case against him has not been answered aside from asking what the case against him was when several cases on him had been posted he has done nothing but second ange's position and then disappeared from the thread.
I'm actually more nervous about Obvious's reasoning for the way he addressed me here than I am about what he suggested. I already explained why I think it's a silly scenario, but I have a natural distrust for people who try to win me over on WIFOM and diplomacy, rather than a good case.
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Ok, trying to say "You're next because you don't agree with me", when there's not some sort of rock solid evidence...
You're right, I've been too stubborn. People aren't ready to vote for Ange.
##Unvote
##Vote GK
You seem awfully convinced that certain people are scum based on flips that haven't happened, and that's kind of an obvious slip.
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Actually, too many sheep to try and shift things this late.
##Unvote
##Vote Mordanis
Just because I don't trust Ange or GK, I'll get my vote counter to theirs.
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On August 04 2012 01:59 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +I think that in a game going this well for scum, a direct counter wagon would be incredibly stupid, throwing someone under the bus would be better. At the very least, I think the scum votes are probably split, unless they're completely ignoring their coach, because their coach would be telling them not to risk guilt by association on the entire team when they're doing this well with so many sheep in town.
Long story short, it's possible, but I personally find it unlikely due to the incredible level of risk involved, and wouldn't be terribly surprised if both are actually town. This does not make sense with We know that as town we have to stand together to make a successful lynch, and that splitting votes to counter is not an indicator of innocence. So why would Jinglehell do it?
Because I acknowledge that a no-lynch is a bad situation for us, so I vote counter to the people I find suspicious, since the odds of the countless sheep going for the people I find shady are rather slim at this point.
Odds are, those are the only two people likely to be lynched today. As such, I vote for the one I think is more likely to flip scum based on who's voting for them, even though I don't think there's any guarantees either is scum.
If you find that suspicious, go ahead and vote for me.
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Yeah, this is weak as hell, Zork. Show me a real breadcrumb. Something specific, not some Da Vinci Code shit.
If that's a town play, it's a bad town play.
##Unvote
##Vote Zorkmid
If you can't show a real breadcrumb for the N1 save, this is just desperation.
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Well, it could be an anagram for a word in a different language, then if we apply some advanced numerology, eat some peyote, and go on a vision quest, we can discern that his "breadcrumb" actually doesn't mean a damn thing.
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On August 04 2012 04:10 alan133 wrote:It did not make much sense... Let me fix that for you. Show nested quote +ActIvity seeMs woefully slow. I guess that Most of you Are on diFferent clocks that I Am. Done. ##Unvote: Mordanis
##Vote: Zorkmid
Lol. That one does, sadly, make more sense. And illustrates the hilarity.
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So much for my tactic of assuming that the guy who sounds like he's smoking some good shit is actually town. But I can't imagine a good townie reason to fakeclaim.
Although it is an excellent way to insult the IQ of the entire town?
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On August 03 2012 23:35 alan133 wrote:
@Zorkmid
What the heck is your game? Where the fuck did you go? Why did you go out and posted that "SCUM SLIP"? Why are you making such a big deal about a stupid relief post? Why do reading your filter makes me want to vote for you so bloody much?
Why did you sheep? Why were your cases a rehash of everyone else's case? Where is your own reads? You and all the lurkers are all hurting town, or is being INCREDIBLY LAZY SCUMS.
This came 5 hours before your vote. I voted late too, but I wasn't sold until the pathetic fakeclaim. You wanted to vote for him
so bloody much but waited 5 hours anyway.
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EBWOP, if it wasn't clear, I'd love to know why the delay.
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On August 04 2012 01:01 goodkarma wrote:I said before that I would stand by Shady Sands, after he had already voted for Mord. Instead of helping town, he's afked, and in the process has let town down  . I am nearly 100% certain at this point that Mord. is innocent, but shady is only confirmed town meaning EVERY TOWN REMAINING would have to vote for the other candidate, Zork, for Zork to be lynched. That's simply not going to happen. And at this point, it feels just as unlikely that whichever other two town are on Mord. will be changing their votes... In other words, I'm pretty sure today is no-lynch. There is also the possibility that JingleHell and Zork would tack onto the innocent candidate bandwaggon, which could secure the majority, but would condemn them as scum. I don't see that happening, though honestly it is their best move (lol) since it would guarantee LYLO for town. (snip) I know that some might consider everything I've just said speculation, but nothing in this game is certain. I strongly believe that today's voting patterns have pegged two scum, and provided us the place to look for the last one. I look forward to hearing everyone's opinions tonight.
Also, remember this post? Trying to make people look bad based on a flip that hadn't happened yet? Yeah, I'd look terrible if Mord had been a mislynch right now.
How, exactly, did you know to be preparing a case before a flip?
GK is scum, like I thought when I first shifted to him after this post.
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You are, in fact, aware it's night, yes shady? If you actually think that's what happened, feel free to lead a mislynch on me and feel like an idiot for discounting what I just contributed against GK and alan. I was asked to replace in, for some unknown reason, and frankly I think Marv would have done better to mercymod-kill, given the sheeping levels in this game.
A town like this losing faster would be a huge improvement over subjecting a replacement to it.
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By the way, answer the following question without managing to sound like a dumbass.
Would I also look suspicious if I had not switched votes after that pathetic of a fakeclaim?
My bet is yes.
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If you think that statement is suspicious, I can't help you much. It's merely conventional wisdom. If scum is doing strong overall, having the entire scumteam piled up to try and save someone is a bad idea.
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Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan.
Alan starts by wanting to discuss tons of policy. Link
Huge WIFOM, no commitment. Link
Wishy Washy on Golbat, creates distance from a mislynch. Link
Defends Zork lightly. Link
Kisses up a little, and references a game where out of several cases made, I only had a 50% scum lynch record. Link
OMGUS against Mord Link
If you really think I'm the next best lynch, well... I'm probably not.
I switched at a point where there was no way to avoid suspicion. Please don't make a case revolve around that, as it leads towards confirmation bias.
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My primary defense will be that I'm a much worse target than Alan. Given that I'm under suspicion for some rather paltry WIFOM based on one of a couple of things.
1: When I ask people why they said something, they repeat it, and OMGUS me.
2: I came in looking at people who weren't the major targets, which, ironically, people wanted me to do.
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I'm going to try and get this concept through people's skulls one more time. My reasoning for suspecting Ange was not for any specific thing he said. It was for the timing of asking me to post cases on people besides Shady, followed by immediately adding evidence to the case against Shady.
It looked like an effort to give me a confirmation bias.
I was asking about motives. Not about semantics. (Granted, semantics seems to be the only thing you people understand)
This is the last time I attempt to defend that. At this point, any townies who aren't sheeping on scum have a healthy dose of their own confirmation bias, so I feel no need to continue arguing with a brick wall.
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Actually, I'd look scummy no matter what because I wasn't NKed as a replacement. Given that there's literally no way to post without it being possible to WIFOM it into being scummy, and you're operating based on confirmation bias, instead of reading what I've said objectively, I'm just going to watch the flock fail hard.
Post something that isn't some convoluted acid trip that there's no way to defend against, and I'll post a defense.
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By the way, since we're kinda up to our neck in WIFOM right now regarding the "case" on me anyways...
Why the hell would I, if I was scum, come into the thread taking some convoluted route of being suspicious of people who weren't under fire? I could have easily taken the easy way out, piled onto Mordanis, and played the "unbiased outsider" card people were handing me to agree with the case against him?
If you think that makes sense from the hypothetical scum me viewpoint, I think I'm going to take it as an insult.
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EPT
