EPTEvul was pretty quiet all game, so maybe Mafia was trying to kill a blue?
Regardless, I'm happy to be alive, and let's make this day of discussion better than the last.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 4
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Evul was pretty quiet all game, so maybe Mafia was trying to kill a blue? Regardless, I'm happy to be alive, and let's make this day of discussion better than the last. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
tl;dr - I think Calgar is very townie. When looking for suspicious posts, its important to take the entire context of a person's play rather than individual posts. For example, I can dig through Jingle's filter and build a case on him for "suspicious and inconsistent play," yet Jingle is one of my very strong townie reads. Why? Because his play in full context shows a reckless player who tries to generate discussion - he's bound to have inconsistent/suspicious play based on his posting style alone. In the case against Calgar, I'm seeing all his inconsistent posts brought to light while ignoring the context of his play and any pro-townie evidence in his favor. So here's a question; has Calgar's play hurt or helped us this game? I'd say he helped us quite a bit. He generated a lot of discussion and got a lot of lurkers to talk. In Jingle's case, this is interpreted as him bandwagonning suspicion on several players before casting a vote on iamperfection. His fingerpointing play appears townie in full context. Another point Jingle makes is his "me-too" bandwagonning on my suspicions/ideas. Again, in full context, this isn't suspicious. I assume that Calgar thinks his strongest townie reads are Jingle and I, and he's been actively trying to make peace with (and between) us. Just take a look at this post: 1. @jingle and @hapa – jesus christ guys chill out already. Your back and forth is unproductive, distracting, spammy, and most importantly, anti-town. That is reason enough to stop, immediately. Deal with your issues outside of the thread. What part of this even makes sense from a mafia perspective? Why the hell would he attempt to break up a fight between us? Other than his last post to Jingle, he's been very active in trying to get on good terms with his top townie reads and stopped us from our distracting fight. This is 100% pure-colombian townie. As a final point, while I see "inconsistency" in Calgar's play, I don't see any any attemps to lie, mislead, or deflect. Inconsistency is indicative of reckless townie play - misleading play is very very mafia oriented. I don't see any indication of the latter at all. So before the town goes and bandwagons Calgar, ask yourself; is he really the most suspicious player here? Does he have any mafia-motive? In my opinion, no and no. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Regarding the "vigi hit" proposed by Calgar - The point about him disagreeing with Jingle and then agreeing with me is certainly "inconsistent," but where's the mafia motive? On him "trying" to get Obvious.660 Lynched - at that point, it was pretty much a hopeless cause. The votecout was 6 to 3, and swinging two votes given the town's general attitude seemed impossible, especially without any help (since I was gone catching a train). Regarding him "implying" suspicion Jingle then calling him strong townie read - Again, this seems more reckless than mafia-oriented. It looks like he was upset at Jingle's play rather than implying suspicion. There would be no reason for mafia to call Jingle a strong townie. It doesn't make sense. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
should be: On him "trying" to get iamperfection lynched Damn my lack of proofreading. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 19 2012 15:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Vigi hit: The mafia motive is to very weakly bus iamperfection, assuming they are both scum, while casting suspicion on Jingle and hoping to turn to you later to support him. The bus is the primary motive here to me. First of all, I don't see where he casts suspicion on Jingle. He's definetely critical of Jingle's play, but I don't see any instances of him casting direct suspicion (link me a post if I'm wrong, could've missed something). Critical =/= accusatory. Secondly, his "bus" on iamperfection isn't weak at all. He's really consistent about his attitude towards him throughout D1 and holds his suspicions throughout N1. But here's the key point: why would mafia EVER try to push for a N1 vigi kill on their ally?! Trying to Lynch Iamperfection: It WAS NOT completely hopeless at that point. The vote count never changed until after he'd made his statement that he was having a hard time defending Obvious.660 and gave up trying. - You switched vote to iamperfection --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 2 - Calgar joins your vote --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 3 - Calgar half asses his defense of Obvious and fails to push for iamperfection in any meaningful manner (I know he has a lack of posts to analyze and make a case with, but there was essentially nothing done other than rehash the fact that he looks scummy without adding anything new) - Fulla drops what could have been considered the hammer vote (plurality so not exactly, but whatever) At THIS point it is inevitable. Calgar had just about conceded his position two posts PRIOR to Fulla's vote. There's no difference between 6-3 and 5-3. Both situations still require two people to switch votes. Furthermore, there was a lot of reason to believe that the relatively inactive Fulla wouldn't come in to vote at all. Implying suspicion: There isn't a good reason for him to call Jingle town AND imply that he is being scummy. Calgar has seemingly done both, in that order. Though he maintains that Jingle is a town read, his 'elephant on piano keys' post details how Jingle's actions are scummier than calgar's, BUT Jingle is still a town read. This does not make sense to me and I considered that post to be riddled with scummy behavior. Is it wildly inconsistent and not make sense? Yes. Is it mafia-motivated? No. Why would he ever establish Jingle as a strong townie read? It just doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. It's more plausible from a bad analysis/bad townie post perspective. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 Brought most of this stuff up, and he has some replies (in my opinion, insufficient) to those posts shortly afterwards. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 19 2012 21:53 JingleHell wrote: 1: The post was already linked. He directly implied only a scummy motive would want more evidence with perfection rather than wanting a vigi hit. You bring up WIFOM, but let's face it. At that point in time, if I was on the scum team, I'd be thinking the best possible use for Perfection would be dying to get me town credit. 2:Scum need at least one visible townie to keep around as a smokescreen for their own active players until later in the game. If they've been known to be unlucky like me, so much the better. Scum can't push an agenda if the entire thread is quiet. 3: Calgar, despite being so much more logical than me (according to himself) has yet to respond to my points with anything other than attempts to pick fights. 4: You've asked why scum Calgar would have posted telling us to stop fighting. That's ridiculous. Visible scum aiming for town leadership should do exactly that. 5: My case may seem like it's made up of tiny little things... wasn't it Calgar who, at the beginning, gave the scum a huge amount of credit saying not to look for big obvious things? 1) Perfection wasn't close to dying at any point in D1. Also, Calgar initiated the suspicion and was the first to vote against Perfection. I'd understand if Perfection attracted significant suspicion beforehand, but Tube was coming under very heavy fire for the few pages prior to Calgar's initial suspicion: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=16#302 2) You're speculating what mafia's going to do - how are we to know what the Mafia's plans are? Also, I don't understand the "unlucky" thing. 3) We're not even half-way into D2, so I don't want to make judgments on the validity of his defense. 4) I read this action the complete opposite. There's a lot of town motive in stopping thread-derailing fights as well. Could it be a mafia ploy? Maybe, but highly highly unlikely. 5) I don't follow your logic here. You're suggesting that Calgar willingly posted this scumhunting advice knowing it would hurt him in the future? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Secondly, if Calgar and I were mafia, wouldn't killing the only other vocal townie (and sniping a blue on top of that) be really freggin' good for us? We would dominate the discussion for the rest of the game and get people lynched at will. Thirdly, why the hell would we both be actively establishing your innocence, even AFTER you pushed the Obvious.660 mislynch? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 00:11 JingleHell wrote: Haven't I already commented on the pile of WIFOM you're trying to feed me? Shooting me would have removed the panic button of pointing fingers at me for mislynches. I already explained that twice, so if you're not going to respond to the explanation, I've got nothing further to say on this. And your thirdly I've also answered. Please don't respond by asking questions I answered already with no substance, all WIFOM. That doesn't make any sense! Your theory is that you didn't get shot because people would fingerpoint you for the mislynch. The fingerpointing didn't happen! Hell both Calgar and I have actively asserted your innocence in spite of the mislynch! How the hell is that WIFOM? Your story about you not getting shot literally doesn't make any sense! | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You think that Calgar and I, as hypothetical mafia, killed Evul instead of you, KNOWING that you'd think that you were kept alive by virtue of your "smokescreen" theory. Then KNOWING that you anticipated being fingerpointing for the mislynch (mind you, all of this prior to the N1 kill), we instead defended you in pure WIFOM. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 00:19 JingleHell wrote: I'm saying that if I'm alive, I'm a diversion. If I'm dead, I'm the guy who was in Calgar's face about wanting a vigi on Perfection. If that doesn't make sense, I've given you far too much credit. In fact, I hope people won't believe you suddenly not being able to think. More than anyone else here, I can't stand your personality, but I still know you're sharp enough to understand what I'm saying, and feigning ignorance is so grossly out of character for you as a defense, that I hope others see it too. I still don't understand this. If you die, doesn't that increase the chances of iamperfection getting killed due to lack of townie opposition? Do you think that the lurkers in this game would take suspicion off iamperfection on the basis of your lynch? Or would they all bandwagon like they did with the Obvious.660 lynch? As far as I'm concerned, your suspicions are based on implausible stories. That Calgar and I, as hypothetical mafia, decided to jump through hoops and come up with a horrendously excessive and complex plan (leaving you alive and defending you) rather than taking an easy and effective solution (killing you). | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 01:24 iamperfection wrote: --SNIP-- I think the mafia has been caught off guard by jingles claim and have resorted to logical fallicies in order to defend each other between hapa and calgar. I havent seen any suggestion by hapa and calgar in the last few pages of who we should be actively going for instead or if they have any new reads to go on they simply have resorted to attacking jingles defense. If calgar thinks im scum has he simply forgot that he should be scum hunting. If im this blatant scum read why hasent he tried to push with some more evidence. Im not buying his defense. ## vote calgar I"ve made it very clear that I want YourHarry lynched. Hell I even posted a link to my when Fulla mentioned his suspicions of YourHarry. If you're going to fire accusations, atleast READ damnit. As for Calgar, he's made it clear that he wants you dead - need he say it more? I mean hell, we have 30+ hours until the lynch deadline and you're blaming people about not pushing cases? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Good to see suspicion drifting off Calgar - vocal townies fighting vocal townies is a bad situation all around. Calgar, fantastic job defending yourself. YourHarry has been at the top of my lynch list since midway through D1, and he's been trying frantically to point any suspicion he can at Jingle/Calgar over the last few pages. He has not vindicated himself in my eyes, and I believe my earlier suspicions still hold valid. (I'll be sure to read his case and defense tomorrow to make sure. ) So for the reasons posted below: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=29#568 ##Vote YourHarry | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 10:47 JingleHell wrote: Hey, Hapa. Credit where due, I also kept the situation tenable for communication to cool things down instead of going ballistic. Stroke my ego here a little  ^5 I'll admit, I never would have seen you switching votes of Calgar a couple of hours ago. Good jobs all around. In addition, the Calgar case proved to be quite informative - YourHarry's reactions/bandwagon on Calgar pretty much convinced me he was scum. It's also interesting that the other player attracting suspicion (iamperfection) joined the bandwagon on Calgar as well. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
To break things down nice and neatly for Harry to respond. Suspicious early D1 Behavior: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 <--- My original case Suspicious D1 Voting Pattern (particulearly his vote and unvote of JingleHell) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=29#568 <--- My Explanation Suspicious attitude on Calgar/Jingle: On July 20 2012 01:05 YourHarry wrote: OH WOW. I THINK WE HAVE TO KILL JINGLE HELL........ JINGLE WHY DID YOU DRAW MAFIA.......... I WILL BE BACK LATER TO CLARIFY MY THOUGHTS On July 20 2012 01:09 YourHarry wrote: But....... Calgar today, i think. Jingle tomorrow maybe. "Desperation" to cast suspicion on JingleHell: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=39#762 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=38#755 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=40#781 That's the brief rundown. | ||
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