never gonna give you up
never gonna get replaced
never gonna run you round
or get replaced!
also why is wbg smurfing in his own game? :p
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
never gonna give you up never gonna get replaced never gonna run you round or get replaced! also why is wbg smurfing in his own game? :p | ||
strongandbig
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So this game I'm gonna work on a few things, I want people to let me know if you think I'm falling into one of these bad habits. I'm gonna try extra hard to avoid tunnel vision and to avoid getting pissed off at Mattchew. Toodles! | ||
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On July 12 2012 02:05 Mattchew wrote: s&b ill try really hard this game just for you yaaaaay its like its my birthday hurraaaaaaaaaaaay | ||
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i am currently watching Le Closer in french in my hotel room. Scum y'all best get ready to get motherfucking interrogated | ||
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For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. | ||
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I am in Europe, so I will be asleep at times when most of you are active. I work at CERN so I will be busy a lot of the time that I'm awake. At night before sleep is about the only time I can be relied on to post, although I'll try and do more of this sort of long-post-from-the-bus as long as the thread doesn't get too big for my phone to cache the "all pages" view. So much for the lurking. I'm curious though - why do you accuse me of "actively" lurking? Is there a reason for you thinking I was "active" at the time of your post? Or was it just because you wanted to justify your vote on me, and "active" lurking is scummier than "normal" lurking, which is much closer to an accurate description? | ||
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Marv, I know there's a strong positive correlation between "number of games played on TL" and "percentage of posts that consist purely of insults and trololol," but I was kind of hoping we weren't there yet. Let's see what's wrong with this picture so far. On July 12 2012 19:25 marvellosity wrote: Like seriously, how do you spend a post that long that actually only says "talis plan is scummy, but he always does it" that's literally the only content You forgot "Marv should know this, and him throwing out Talismania right away as a lynch target is suspicious." Because you should know this. I know you were obsing Bastard 2 where Talismania did this as town. And you were obsing SSB where he did this as town. And you played in Space Station where he did the same thing as town. That's three games. Plus he even referred to the fact that he does this as town and I find him scummy for it in the same post where he did it. So yeah, you throwing out Talismania as a lynch target for no good reason is suspicious and I stand by that. As for the number of times you've rolled scum - you're forgetting MTG mafia. That counts, since before the game no one knew you were going to just leave Toad to play it. So I can only go back so far in time, due to the limitations of the TL search function, but it seems to me that in your last five games you were town in moviestar, scum in LV, town in bangbang, scum in mtg, and unknown in normal mini 2 since that's still ongoing. LVI doesn't count for these purposes since you replaced in, and LV is as far back as the search function goes. So that looks pretty much like 50% to me. Obviously you were probably town a lot more than scum back before your first scum game, because hosts wouldn't be like "he's a good scum player" until whatever that first game was that you won as scum. Anyway, that's beside the point - it doesn't really matter. As I said in my original post, it's just another reason to keep you under close scrutiny. The fact that you've won either 2/2 or 3/3 games where you were scum, depending on whether we count mtg, is enough - it's proven you're hard to identify as scum. Neither of those are reasons to lynch you or think you're scum by themselves. They are only reasons to keep you under the microscope. And sorry if my post was too long for you or if you got bored or whatever. I was sitting on the bus for like forty minutes with no internet and nothing to do but write it :p. | ||
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And I didn't know you replaced into LV, that does change my math. But as I've said every single time we've talked about it, that stuff is beside the point. The point is, I'm still watching you. | ||
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On July 12 2012 22:39 Mattchew wrote: Strong I feel like the entirety of your posts could easily be made by either town or scum, if this is you trying to establish your alignment you have done a poor job with me. Your post is longwinded and looks to explain your thought process, but we both know that 95% of your posts content has nothing to do with this game at all. Not only that but your early attempt at a read on marv does not even account for his other posts in the thread. And your reasoning for voting him from this game is too, extremely weak. Sorry bro, but that's kind of the nature of the game I guess - any post could be made either by scum or by town? Do you have any suggestions as to how to be more townie? Meanwhile, I feel like there's something to be read in Gonzaw's post about Derpbear - I'm just not sure what. Dropbera accuses Gonzaw of tryharding overmuch, when he's just Gonzawing - then Gonzaw attacks him in a way that I'm pretty sure either exaggerates or straight up mischaracterizes dropper's tiny filter. hmmmmmmmmmmm...... I'll think some more about this later tonight. Gonzaw, have you and DropBurp ever played together before? | ||
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On July 13 2012 01:31 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) marvellosity On July 12 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). no next On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote: Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Talis, underlined portions of Marv's posts are what I interpret as his reactions to your plan. Underlined portions of mine are my reaction that I wrote. Two things. One, Show nested quote + this. If you think I'm just "expanding on" marv, that IS adding something. Otherwise Marv's initial "no" is it, and EVERYONE who disagreed is just "expanding on no." He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Two, here WAS new content, specific scenarios that I noted your plan could lead to, which I think are bad and weren't mentioned by others:
Overall, I think your plan is bad if you want us to follow, and still bad if you want to gauge reactions to it. You got responses from a little more than half the thread, which is alright, but you need a plan that SOME people want if you're going to actually generate "discussion." You got reactions, but not actual discussion. People weren't weighing the pros and cons of the plan, people were just saying no to it. That doesn't get you the sort of interactions that I want to draw conclusions from, because nobody gains town OR scum points for being the 5th or 6th person to pooh pooh a plan that nobody likes. I'm more interested in Risen though. Need to read him and see if he actually doesn't have scumreads early, but does that sit alright with people? My D1 reads are AWFUL, but I still have them. How do you read the game as town and not have scumreads? Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:18 Risen wrote: I think it's too early for anything. I don't really like to make reads without any connections (this might be a bad thing to do). I just think it's easier for me to make cases when I consider people as members of a team, not as individual scum members. Anyway, Risen's filter is a lot of talking about how he's going to play this game. Which is helpful, lets us know his plan and can explain away some differences in behavior. But it's basically filler about oneself. Early interaction with Gonzaw, which ends with this: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 10:38 Risen wrote: I was just pointing out I found it odd you would try and push people onto "lurkers" so early on. I don't think anything about you. There's nothing to go on right now. I don't think that post was in your favor, though. When he speaks about DropBear later, we get: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: For example: this could be DropBear bussing/giving his teammate a way to backtrack on his plan or it could be scum calling out a townie. I'm not saying I even have a scumread on drop as he seems to want a pro-town environment, which is something I'm all for, but this is something that could be used to confirm a connection in my mind at a later point in time. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: EBWOP: He could also just be a townie doing pro-town things. This is the most likely option. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:25 Risen wrote: I don't like how drop is trying to take the lead here and I think previously with all this "hey mate decent line but try this instead" or "hey mate lets be bros but I don't think you should be doing this" I generally don't like anything that could be considered guidance coming from anywhere other than a plan with spelled out logic. He could be scum bussing a scumbuddy. He could be scum calling out town. He's probably a townie. He's a townie but I don't like what he's doing. A lot of filter, but nothing really said. Dunno. Being wrong as a townie is plenty forgiveable. It's going to happen, especially on the early days. But not scumhunting, or not having reads until later in the game, isn't helpful to town at all. Even if you don't trust your reads early as much as your reads late, you've got to contribute. Apart from just not having contributed much except the discussions concerning Gonzaw and DropBear, neither of whom he has any strong feelings on, it just doesn't feel like Risen has done anything this game despite having a lot of posts. I'm getting some seriously bad vibes from the first half of this post - it seems like there's way too much detail responding to Talis's "you copied marv" thing, when one or two sentences would do. (and when I'm telling you you put too much detail into a post, you've got a problem.) Then you jump back into actually arguing about whether or not the plan is a good idea, which even tali has moved on from. | ||
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On July 13 2012 01:49 Vivax wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote: What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? No, he doesn't have to be townie. But I initially voted for him cause he didn't post anything, then he posted the metagame info and I found it good enough to unvote him. I remember sciberbia for more concise, compact posts, and I remember him posting really early. He already explained why he didn't post early in this game, so what remains are the posts that subjectively look different to me. But I prefer to not rely heavily on meta, my play changes often aswell and I don't have as much experience. Anyway, I don't like Matt's filter, it looks like he posts rather meaningless content, no active scumhunting in it, rather commenting on what other players already said. He also acts a little differently than in LVI. i dont think i've ever seen a game where matt posts meaningful content or does active scumhunting. well, active scumhunting that isn't stupid. | ||
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On July 13 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote: austinmcc: I'll ignore his 1st post since it has nothing worthwhile in it. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote: Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Big fluffy post. Like talis said, he seems to "add" something to the "talis' plan is bad" discussion....but he doesn't add much at all. Saying it will clog up the thread is not news, and Mattchew and others said what was wrong with the plan before. The worst thing is he makes a great deal out of it by basing his whole post on that part. I say basing his "whole" post because his 2nd paragraph is like the biggest pile of fluff ever. Did you really need to post so much just to ask "What do you guys think of gonzaw's scum play?" or something? Like...your whole post could be reduced to "tali's plan is bad and I want to know how you guys catch gonzaw as scum", which means your post is SOLELY filler, and as you can see that statement alone doesn't contribute anything about the game either. Really...that post is pretty bad. Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 01:31 austinmcc wrote: On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) marvellosity On July 12 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). no next On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote: Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Talis, underlined portions of Marv's posts are what I interpret as his reactions to your plan. Underlined portions of mine are my reaction that I wrote. Two things. One, He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. this. If you think I'm just "expanding on" marv, that IS adding something. Otherwise Marv's initial "no" is it, and EVERYONE who disagreed is just "expanding on no." Two, here WAS new content, specific scenarios that I noted your plan could lead to, which I think are bad and weren't mentioned by others:
Overall, I think your plan is bad if you want us to follow, and still bad if you want to gauge reactions to it. You got responses from a little more than half the thread, which is alright, but you need a plan that SOME people want if you're going to actually generate "discussion." You got reactions, but not actual discussion. People weren't weighing the pros and cons of the plan, people were just saying no to it. That doesn't get you the sort of interactions that I want to draw conclusions from, because nobody gains town OR scum points for being the 5th or 6th person to pooh pooh a plan that nobody likes. I'm more interested in Risen though. Need to read him and see if he actually doesn't have scumreads early, but does that sit alright with people? My D1 reads are AWFUL, but I still have them. How do you read the game as town and not have scumreads? On July 12 2012 15:18 Risen wrote: I think it's too early for anything. I don't really like to make reads without any connections (this might be a bad thing to do). I just think it's easier for me to make cases when I consider people as members of a team, not as individual scum members. Anyway, Risen's filter is a lot of talking about how he's going to play this game. Which is helpful, lets us know his plan and can explain away some differences in behavior. But it's basically filler about oneself. Early interaction with Gonzaw, which ends with this: On July 12 2012 10:38 Risen wrote: I was just pointing out I found it odd you would try and push people onto "lurkers" so early on. I don't think anything about you. There's nothing to go on right now. I don't think that post was in your favor, though. When he speaks about DropBear later, we get: On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: For example: this could be DropBear bussing/giving his teammate a way to backtrack on his plan or it could be scum calling out a townie. I'm not saying I even have a scumread on drop as he seems to want a pro-town environment, which is something I'm all for, but this is something that could be used to confirm a connection in my mind at a later point in time. On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: EBWOP: He could also just be a townie doing pro-town things. This is the most likely option. On July 12 2012 15:25 Risen wrote: I don't like how drop is trying to take the lead here and I think previously with all this "hey mate decent line but try this instead" or "hey mate lets be bros but I don't think you should be doing this" I generally don't like anything that could be considered guidance coming from anywhere other than a plan with spelled out logic. He could be scum bussing a scumbuddy. He could be scum calling out town. He's probably a townie. He's a townie but I don't like what he's doing. A lot of filter, but nothing really said. Dunno. Being wrong as a townie is plenty forgiveable. It's going to happen, especially on the early days. But not scumhunting, or not having reads until later in the game, isn't helpful to town at all. Even if you don't trust your reads early as much as your reads late, you've got to contribute. Apart from just not having contributed much except the discussions concerning Gonzaw and DropBear, neither of whom he has any strong feelings on, it just doesn't feel like Risen has done anything this game despite having a lot of posts. Talking about bad posts. That 1st part is absolutely unnecessary. He keeps talking about tali's plan and tali's accusation of him, but why? Talis said that austin was suspicious because he didn't add much about his criticism of his plan before.....so why did he feel the need to explain everything about how bad that plan is after being called out? Talis didn't tell him "you are suspicious because you can't find reasons why my plan is bad", so why did he spend like 4 paragraphs and a wall of text to explain so? Even more importantly....why does it matter? How could heavily debating why tali's plan was bad (even after 90% had already stated why) be any helpful at all? It just clutters things up and makes your post look big, and of course it just makes it so you appear active and contributing when you haven't done shit until then. The 2nd part is equally bad: Show nested quote + He's probably a townie. He's a townie but I don't like what he's doing. A lot of filter, but nothing really said. WTF!!?? So the player you find most interesting is one you think is town? Also I don't get it, he seems to accuse Risen of many things, but then says he thinks he's town, but then he keeps accusing Risen. That seems very inconsistent, what does he actually think of Risen? If he thought Risen was town...why waste his post on posting his thoughts on someone he thinks is town? Why not ignore it and post about someone he thinks is scum? As you can see...later he never posts anything at all about who he thinks is scum, nothing. Just like S&B's accusation of austin, austin accuses Risen but never mentions him later (albeit he didn't have that many posts). That seems fishy as fuck. Strong&Big Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. I fully agree with Mattchew here: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 22:39 Mattchew wrote: Strong I feel like the entirety of your posts could easily be made by either town or scum, if this is you trying to establish your alignment you have done a poor job with me. Your post is longwinded and looks to explain your thought process, but we both know that 95% of your posts content has nothing to do with this game at all. Not only that but your early attempt at a read on marv does not even account for his other posts in the thread. And your reasoning for voting him from this game is too, extremely weak. S&B gets very defensive at being called "active lurker", and says he wants to "establish his innocence" but he's not doing anything like that at all. Check the next posts in his filter, it's just him bickering against marv about the "balance" issue (that has nothing to do with the game). The next thing he does is make half-assed accusations he never seems to follow through: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 23:35 strongandbig wrote: On July 12 2012 22:39 Mattchew wrote: Strong I feel like the entirety of your posts could easily be made by either town or scum, if this is you trying to establish your alignment you have done a poor job with me. Your post is longwinded and looks to explain your thought process, but we both know that 95% of your posts content has nothing to do with this game at all. Not only that but your early attempt at a read on marv does not even account for his other posts in the thread. And your reasoning for voting him from this game is too, extremely weak. Sorry bro, but that's kind of the nature of the game I guess - any post could be made either by scum or by town? Do you have any suggestions as to how to be more townie? Meanwhile, I feel like there's something to be read in Gonzaw's post about Derpbear - I'm just not sure what. Dropbera accuses Gonzaw of tryharding overmuch, when he's just Gonzawing - then Gonzaw attacks him in a way that I'm pretty sure either exaggerates or straight up mischaracterizes dropper's tiny filter. hmmmmmmmmmmm...... I'll think some more about this later tonight. Gonzaw, have you and DropBurp ever played together before? Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 01:54 strongandbig wrote: On July 13 2012 01:31 austinmcc wrote: On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) marvellosity On July 12 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). no next On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote: Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Talis, underlined portions of Marv's posts are what I interpret as his reactions to your plan. Underlined portions of mine are my reaction that I wrote. Two things. One, He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. this. If you think I'm just "expanding on" marv, that IS adding something. Otherwise Marv's initial "no" is it, and EVERYONE who disagreed is just "expanding on no." Two, here WAS new content, specific scenarios that I noted your plan could lead to, which I think are bad and weren't mentioned by others:
Overall, I think your plan is bad if you want us to follow, and still bad if you want to gauge reactions to it. You got responses from a little more than half the thread, which is alright, but you need a plan that SOME people want if you're going to actually generate "discussion." You got reactions, but not actual discussion. People weren't weighing the pros and cons of the plan, people were just saying no to it. That doesn't get you the sort of interactions that I want to draw conclusions from, because nobody gains town OR scum points for being the 5th or 6th person to pooh pooh a plan that nobody likes. I'm more interested in Risen though. Need to read him and see if he actually doesn't have scumreads early, but does that sit alright with people? My D1 reads are AWFUL, but I still have them. How do you read the game as town and not have scumreads? On July 12 2012 15:18 Risen wrote: I think it's too early for anything. I don't really like to make reads without any connections (this might be a bad thing to do). I just think it's easier for me to make cases when I consider people as members of a team, not as individual scum members. Anyway, Risen's filter is a lot of talking about how he's going to play this game. Which is helpful, lets us know his plan and can explain away some differences in behavior. But it's basically filler about oneself. Early interaction with Gonzaw, which ends with this: On July 12 2012 10:38 Risen wrote: I was just pointing out I found it odd you would try and push people onto "lurkers" so early on. I don't think anything about you. There's nothing to go on right now. I don't think that post was in your favor, though. When he speaks about DropBear later, we get: On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: For example: this could be DropBear bussing/giving his teammate a way to backtrack on his plan or it could be scum calling out a townie. I'm not saying I even have a scumread on drop as he seems to want a pro-town environment, which is something I'm all for, but this is something that could be used to confirm a connection in my mind at a later point in time. On July 12 2012 15:22 Risen wrote: EBWOP: He could also just be a townie doing pro-town things. This is the most likely option. On July 12 2012 15:25 Risen wrote: I don't like how drop is trying to take the lead here and I think previously with all this "hey mate decent line but try this instead" or "hey mate lets be bros but I don't think you should be doing this" I generally don't like anything that could be considered guidance coming from anywhere other than a plan with spelled out logic. He could be scum bussing a scumbuddy. He could be scum calling out town. He's probably a townie. He's a townie but I don't like what he's doing. A lot of filter, but nothing really said. Dunno. Being wrong as a townie is plenty forgiveable. It's going to happen, especially on the early days. But not scumhunting, or not having reads until later in the game, isn't helpful to town at all. Even if you don't trust your reads early as much as your reads late, you've got to contribute. Apart from just not having contributed much except the discussions concerning Gonzaw and DropBear, neither of whom he has any strong feelings on, it just doesn't feel like Risen has done anything this game despite having a lot of posts. I'm getting some seriously bad vibes from the first half of this post - it seems like there's way too much detail responding to Talis's "you copied marv" thing, when one or two sentences would do. (and when I'm telling you you put too much detail into a post, you've got a problem.) Then you jump back into actually arguing about whether or not the plan is a good idea, which even tali has moved on from. I don't see a vote, I don't see him trying to get other people's thoughts on them, and most importantly I don't really see him as actually interested in pressuring those people...he just seems to softly accuse them and nothing else. For instance take his austin "accusation".....does he think austin is scum or not? Like...what does he conclude? He just calls him out on something, but we don't know if he's accusing him or pressuring him or whatever, since he doesn't follow up on it later at all. For claiming he's trying to "establishing his innocence" he's doing a very bad job, he makes a fluffy post about "balance" and about "keeping an eye on marv", then keeps cluttering up the thread with that "balance" issue, then makes half-assed accusations against me+austin. Keirathi: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:19 Keirathi wrote: sciberbia wrote: I'm not a big fan of lynching lurkers. Obviously, lurking hurts town, but I don't think lurking is all that alignment-indicative. Seeing as our goal is to lynch scum, I will only give slight preference to lynching the lurker over the active player, everything else being even. I'm not convinced that masons, millers, or roleblockers should claim, but I've never played in a setup quite like this before and I haven't thought much about it. I'll read up on the issue and see if I agree with you guys. Well, ideally since this is not a newbie game, we shouldn't have townies lurking much. Its a bit different in newbie games because people don't really know how to play, and since everyone here should have a decent idea of how to play, then people lurking is strategy rather than ignorance. That's not to say that I think lynching lurkers is a particularly good idea, but looking into lurkers has more merit in this type of game than a newbie one. As far as claims, I myself haven't played in a game where masons/roleblockers claimed, so I'll have to look into it, but I agree with the points made about RB'ers so far, so that at least makes sense. An unclaimed miller causes more confusion than its worth though, and I can't really think of a situation in which a miller wouldn't want to claim. This post seems a very "I'm trying to contribute here!" one. Spends WAY too much time talking about lurkers and policies, and doesn't even take any interesting stance in the mason/RBer issue (i.e if he had an interesting stance it would be actually a contribution). He just spouts some fluffy stuff about them that only serves to make his post bigger solstice called him out as "verbose" (which was right): Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Yet he keeps doing the same thing. He's still "verbose", and his post doesn't contribute shit at all. He says "I'm verbose because of something irrelevant" and "Rehash of what other people said". Not only that, he acknowledges himself that he's rehashing what other people said....yet that doesn't prevent him from posting it and doesn't prevent him from trying to find something else to contribute. His other posts don't call too much attention, yet then he comes out of nowhere with this: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 03:33 Keirathi wrote: On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: + Show Spoiler + since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). So I was going back through the thread looking for more information, when this leaped out at me. When I read it the first time through, I didn't think anything of it because I don't have previous experience with you, but if you propose the same plan in every game you play in, then how is it "half-assed musing" this time? It feels like you're pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan. And why, as a townie, are you half-assing things anyways? ...???? This is so out of place it's not funny. Like, Vivax had 2 votes on him and a case against him, some other FoSes were flowing around (marv on S&B at first, then Vivax on Mattchew, etc); yet when Kei posts he thinks it's more useful to discuss tali's plan again? Not only that, but discuss something so pointless and irrelevant like tali's "motive" for making the plan because it was "half-assed" or some shit? Like....he completely ignored everything else in the thread, wtf? Now here's my dilemma: Who the fuck do I vote? I want all 3 dead Hmm, I think austin+Keirath are more likely scum than S&B, but I guess Keiarth could be just noob and plays like this because he's noob, so lets go with this. ##Vote: austinmcc Gee how did I guess Gonzaw was gonna post a ginormous wall of text calling me scum again. It's like, if Gonzaw doesn't call you scum, you're not doing things right. If you think that defending yourself against minor accusations is a scum tell then you haven't learned from the right scum sensei. Good scum want to ignore anything that calls attention to their minor inconsistencies or other problems with their play. It's townies who want to make sure they address little things like "active lurking" accusations. As well as whatever the fuck you're accusing me of here. So I guess your points are that I "defended myself too much" and "didn't back up my reads?" Dude did you not just play a game with me? I almost never vote during the first 24 hours of the day. The vote is a tool for pressuring people, not just something you use to announce who you think is scum. And what's wrong with me pointing out things that I find scummy? It's like the first half of the first day, I don't know enough about anyone yet to be sure they're scum. Yeah, I think austin's post was scummy; I think Marv's post was scummy. That doesn't mean I think we should lynch them, it means they should freaking explain yourselves or whatever. Christ gonzaw you're frustrating. And you say I "cluttered up the thread with the balance shit" - do you notice that every time I mentioned it I said "it doesn't matter" and "we should be focusing on whether we think what Marv said was scummy"? Because I only kept talking about it because he was accusing me of being scum because I said it. Yeah so Gonzaw you want me to vote for someone? Well tough fuckin' titties. I think it's interesting that Marv found that inconsistency with Vixen or whoever he is; but it's not conclusive by any means. Right now I actually agree with you that austin is the most likely scum; like I said in the post you quoted, he went way more in detail than he needed to in responding to the thing about copying other people, and he also tried to reopen the discussion of tali's shitty plan thing. But I'm not ready to vote on it yet. I want to see how he responds to your ridiculous wall of text. | ||
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- gonzaw i dont intend to respond like that to everyone who accuses me. Just you. I really didn't like the way you played in mtg mafia. - Austin: why are you acting as though talismania had this two-part plan? That's clearly not what happened. He just spewed his normal day1 plan, then later on decided to do the reaction thing to salvage some info, but you're acting as if the whole thing was premeditated. - keirathi is probably scum. combination of gut read plus he posted a couple things that look like what I would have done in my scum game when i was uber nub. look at his filter - he accuses two people but doesn't commit to either accusation. That in itself is suspect but not necessarily scum; but the accusations are for reasons that don't make sense. he accuses tali for saying his own plan is stupid and he accuses me for not calling tali scum b/c of his plan, when I was actually saying how I did exactly that in a previous game and tali was town. ##vote: keirathi (for now). - voting keirathi cause I can't tell yet whether austin is scum or just kinda flipping-out townie. austin i know you were in pyp or poison or something but was that your first game? - i can't read talismania yet, and I don't trust myself to read talismania at all. - I think mattchew is probably town but it's mostly just based on the fact that he's sort of trying to contribute. He's capable of playing a number of different ways as scum so I'm not sold one way or the other yet. See yall tomorrow! | ||
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On July 13 2012 16:52 Keirathi wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 16:46 DropBear wrote: I want to firmly stand by Keirathi, he is one of my strongest town reads right now. Err, what? How do you have a town read on me when literally everyone else has a scum read? This post makes me doubt my scum read on keirathi a little bit. It came out quickly after drop bear's post, and I don't think that a scummy player's first reaction would be to cast doubt on someone defending him. Of course, it could be a clever gambit. It's not conclusive. | ||
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On July 13 2012 22:47 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 22:33 marvellosity wrote: mafia means mafia, scum means anti-town, but ok gonzaw. I could squabble with you for hours Okay, Vivax may be the SK, happy now? >_> (actually, is there a SK this game?) Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 22:36 marvellosity wrote: gonzaw: what do you make of this? On July 13 2012 10:21 s0Lstice wrote: Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again. Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads. I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such: ##vote: Miltonkram This game his [austin's] effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me. On July 13 2012 11:33 Keirathi wrote: On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote: what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv? As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did. Mentioned elsewhere in my filter, but that was my gut reaction to s0lstice's post as well. What do you think? Yeah I noticed it. I'd like him to explain himself though (I don't know if he did), since I don't think it's something "scummy" in itself but rather could be more of a misunderstanding. I didn't really pay much attention to it since the rest of his posts make me think he's town (I've already said why I think). "How many scum are there? Four?" "There are PMs this game right guys? PM me!" "is there an SK this game?" ... making me think you're scum here man | ||
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On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote: the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are ......... man seriously. what are you doing. and I know what you were trying to say ("we can reverse engineer wbg's setup randomizer or something and know how many scum there are") but since we don't know the setup randomizer that's also totally pointless. | ||
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On July 13 2012 23:03 marvellosity wrote: As far as I can tell, the kinda "average" setup is something along the lines of 3 mafia, 1 SK, 3 blues. That's what both Emergency and Movie had. wof had 3 mafia, no sk (i think) and 2 blues. let's stop trying to reverse engineer the setup, at least until we have more info. | ||
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On July 14 2012 00:31 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 23:05 strongandbig wrote: On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote: the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are ......... man seriously. what are you doing. and I know what you were trying to say ("we can reverse engineer wbg's setup randomizer or something and know how many scum there are") but since we don't know the setup randomizer that's also totally pointless. WBG said this setup follows C9++ but the only thing that changed was the chance of the roles and he added a Framer (and changed Medics->JK and IC->Miller). There's no need to shit things up I'll just do it on my own (other people could do it on their own) and if I find something interesting I'll state it (for instance I checked the C9++ wiki and apparently there is a SK only when there is an odd amount of VTs, I guess it may be similar here). It may help in a LYLO massclaim for instance. Also, I think WBG said he was posting his "determiner" once its balanced. WBG: WIll you post the "randomizer" you used to determine the setup? Also apparently no Miller nor Masons claimed, so we don't have any of those Therefore I'll consider any Miller or Mason claim from now on as confirmed scum (well...it doesn't seem likely scum would fake-claim Mason together but whatever). So Cops....check away, any Red check you get will be legit (no Miller claimed and you are guaranteed to be sane). S&B, what do you think of Dropbear and Risen? Dude just stop - WBG will not post the randomizer, he's said, so as to preserve its integrity. There is a 50% chance of there being an SK, it doesn't matter how many VTs there are. PEOPLE, WILL YOU PLEASE STOP TRYING TO GAIN INFORMATION FROM THE MAFIASCUM C9++ SETUP. THIS SETUP IS DIFFERENT AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HAS BEEN CHANGED. WE CANNOT GAIN ANY USEFUL INFORMATION FROM THE MAFIASCUM C9++ SETUP! As for your question I'm at work still so no deep thoughts yet - I'm inclined to give Risen the benefit of the doubt for a few days at least, since he has a good motivation to try to change his town play. Nothing on dropbear right now I'll try and reread his filter later. | ||
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On July 14 2012 01:33 gonzaw wrote: In mind with S&B's recent posting I wouldn't mind his lynch either, I don't like how he sporadically comes into the thread to shit well i wouldnt have to shit on you if you weren't posting like a toilet i'm at work i only can come in sporadically i'd consolidate on austin, maybe keirathi, maybe tali or derpbear, but i'd prefer to think about it a bit more first should be home in a few hours, deadline is midnight euro time so it'll be fine | ||
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##unvote i was leaning townie on risen because of his trolovote on vivek, it seemed town - but now that i reread his filter there are a few things that give me pause. specifically, his "i hunt for whole scum teams" thing is pretty turr'ble - he says "it's easier for me to make cases when I consider people as members of a team", which seems to be missing the point of scumhunting as a townie. i think a townie would be talking about "easy to find scum" not "easy to make cases". i also dont like how focused he is on defending himself by making a case on someone else instead of actually answering the cases against him. that said, I don't think that his inactivity makes him scummy, since he could just have lurked if he was lurky scum instead of promising future activity. at the moment i'm waiting to see a bit more from him, we have like two and a half hours left. im also leaning scum on vivek because of how he kept backing off of someone as soon as they defended themselves a little bit. theres a bunch of other people who are kinda-sorta scummy, like gonzaw for his "trolololo i didnt read the setup" herpderp, marv for me not being able to read him anyway, and austin for that stuff about him and tali i talked about earlier. for now ##vote: vivax as for solstice it's not like I think he's super townie or anything, but i'm not sold on him being scum; asking questions can imply your opinions sometimes actually wait that's a lie. i just read his filter from lvi and from noob17, and in both of those he asks questions a bunch but they feel more insightful than the ones he asks here, and he posts opinions interspersed with the questions. Plus if marv just caught a scum d1 it would mean hes probably town making my life easier (that's not true at all marv's meta is 100% to kill his teammates and we would learn nothing about him). ##unvote ##vote s0lstice umm, vivax consider yourself pressured or whatever. | ||
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##vote vivax lets do this | ||
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On July 14 2012 06:49 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 06:44 marvellosity wrote: On July 14 2012 06:42 gonzaw wrote: On July 14 2012 06:39 marvellosity wrote: There's 20 minutes to deadline and you make a fucking post asking taht when you can just read the OP? Get a grip It's majority It stoke me some doubt since Risen was all "vote Vivax/Dropbear" which made me think it may have been a plurality lynch. If it's majority then sorry to tell you but we'll NL if things keep up like this. Yes AND YOU HAVEN'T VOTED What's wrong with you??? What the hell is wrong with you marv? Get off my back and stop nitpicking everything I say. I already voted Keirathi. Shit I don't have time to read the thread, I just skimmed and saw some posts from Vivax and at least he seemed active (didn't read its content), but Dropbear isn't even here. Fuck it I hate majority lynches, but here it goes: ##Unvote: Keirathi ##Vote: Dropbear Hopefully I reread the thread quickly before the lynch but I doubt it. of course he's not here he's in australia it's like four am like there are decent reasons to vote for him but that's not one of them i want everyone to seriously consider gonzaw for lynch tomorrow. | ||
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are you going to start reading the thread soon/ i mean like idk, the fact that you keep refusing to read the setup feels to me like this game is your version of not giving a fuck - you still post a million times per second but the posts are just kind of only tangentially related to the thread. idk, i dont really see you as doing this as scum but could you please at least answer the point? the fact that you did it like four times and never commented on it even when marv and i called you scummy for it, gives me a pretty bad feeling. | ||
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idk, my scum reads right now are pretty much the same as they were 24 hours ago - keirathi's been seeming more townie, since his big post on drop bear at least actually talked about things that are relevant to scumhunting. Solstice still seems like possible scum for the same reason as I said before. I'm still at a loss to explain why gonzaw aggressively refused to read the thread and kept asking questions about setup, it just doesn't make sense from either a scum or town perspective. Ugh, I guess I'll go through some stuff from gonzaw's case on me next. | ||
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- When I posted about you and the setup stuff, I was genuinely confused - as I still am. Can you explain why you did that like four times, despite being called out after every one? It doesn't make sense to me. - I get frustrated. You post these walls of text super often and they're all accusing me. It's like I can't post anything without having to defend myself against a bad case from you. - I don't understand how you call me "being needlessly aggressive" a scum tell. Sure, I'm being aggresive towards you, because I don't want to deal with you dominating the game again like in mtg, and I don't want every post I make to have to be about my relationship towards you. Now let's talk about the small part of your case on me that wasn't actually about you. - i don't give a fuck what you think about the "tone" of my posts. I'm fucking tired a lot during the week and I'm not going to fancy shit up for you. - how did I not back my reads up? My reasoning is right there. Sometimes being concise is useful, man. I could have written several paragraphs saying "vivak is scummy because he keeps accusing people then backing off of them very quickly." Instead I said it in one sentence. - I really don't understand this part from you. gonzaw said Show nested quote + I said i just read his filter from lvi and from noob17, and in both of those he asks questions a bunch but they feel more insightful than the ones he asks here, and he posts opinions interspersed with the questions. He's using meta ALONE about something IRRELEVANT (he asks "more insightful questions" when he's town, and he's "asking questions" here....how the hell is that relevant?) This makes me think you're scum. How do you not see that "asking questions about irrelevant things" and "asking questions that could help reveal alignment" are different? And more importantly, in those other games he posted opinions whereas in this one he didn't. This point feels manufactured (and tbh I think some of the other points in here seem manufactured too. If you're town man you don't need to post a ginormous case like this every time, you can just post the things that you actually think and that actually make sense). "my attitude convinces you i'm scum" I don't even understand what this means. I guess you mean my attitude towards you this game? Well, I think I explained that above but let me be a little more clear here: I think you ruined MTG mafia because you posted obsessively, and by sheer weight of posts (as well as the fact that a lot of the players there were newbs and that half the vets were scum) you managed to bully the thread into obsessing over whoever you were suspicious of - even though your suspicions were wrong, and (I thought) obviously so. I found that really frustrating, so I'm sorry but for the next while that I play with you I'm going to call your stupid bs out as clearly as I can. | ||
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So here's the thing I posted that made solstice suspicious of me: I said: On July 14 2012 04:50 strongandbig wrote: i was leaning townie on risen because of his trolovote on vivek, it seemed town - but now that i reread his filter there are a few things that give me pause. specifically, his "i hunt for whole scum teams" thing is pretty turr'ble - he says "it's easier for me to make cases when I consider people as members of a team", which seems to be missing the point of scumhunting as a townie. i think a townie would be talking about "easy to find scum" not "easy to make cases". i also dont like how focused he is on defending himself by making a case on someone else instead of actually answering the cases against him. that said, I don't think that his inactivity makes him scummy, since he could just have lurked if he was lurky scum instead of promising future activity. His point boils down to "this is scummy because S&B just played a game with risen where he was town, and he only did connection scumhunting there too!" He ignores two out of the three arguments I make in that paragraph. I present three reasons for finding Risen suspicious: 1) He only uses connection scumhunting, which is a bad way to play as town. 2) The specific phrasing, "easier to make cases" could imply that his goal is subconsciously to make a good case and not to find scum. 3) His defense is not to go through and answer the points against him; instead he just defends himself by making a case on someone else. + Show Spoiler [aside about my posting - Gonzaw please…] + You'll notice that the way I just phrased those points is a lot more articulate than the way I initially phrased them. I'm probably always going to be quite inarticulate during and after work hours CET on weekdays. I work in an open room with the other grad students on my experiment, so it's hard for me to sneak more than a few seconds to post. I also work between eleven and thirteen hours a day including the commute, so I'm tired as fuck when I get home; so far I've been putting what little energy I do have to spend on mafia into thinking and not into posting. S0lstice only talks about one of those three points. On that point, he's right that Risen did do the "connection scumhunting" thing as town in MTG, but I don't remember Risen coming out and saying it like that; IIRC it was just more of a pattern and not a policy. (Although I could be wrong about that.) So he is correct that this is the weakest of my three points about Risen. As for why solstice ignores the other two points, there's two options: 1) He either failed at reading my post or didn't care enough to try, and really thought that was the only part of my FoS on Risen, or 2) He was trying to manufacture a case on me, so he focused on the weakest point of my FoS and called me scum for it. S0lstice, let's hear something from you about this: 1) Now that I've clarified the other two reasons for my FoS, do you still think that post makes me scum? 2) On substance what do you think about those two points about Risen? As to the actual substance of the case on Risen: I need to read his filter again before I decide whether he's scum or not. I think that all his "countdown to vivax's death" posts were weird and I need to decide if I think they make him scummy or townie. | ||
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1) If he was scum we probably lose this game; he's very hard to catch, he's willing to bus his team randomly, and he's slippery (we saw all this in TL LV or whichever one was the invader zim one). I thought the only chance we had versus a scum Marv would be to lynch him day 2 or 3, before he could start bussing his teammates. 2) If he was town then he would probably be the night 1 target of scum; sometimes, however, scum will hold off on an NK of the best town player if they think that person is having a bad game or otherwise a potential mislynch target. Since I didn't think that any scumteam of non-marv people here would be able to successfully push a mislynch onto him, making him look as bad as possible was a win/win for town. Unfortunately, it didn't succeed in getting scum to shoot someone else, mostly because Marv's defense was very good and the only scummy thing he did was of minor importance. (I still stand by my point that him wanting to kill Tali for the shitty plan was scummy though, I did not make that point up. I did try and make it seem more important than it actually was.) | ||
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I'm going to post some quotes first. On July 14 2012 06:04 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. You're tunneling. I'm telling you you're tunneling. Just look at viv's recent posting. I'm serious. It is that bad, but no one in this thread seems to be giving it any credit beyond "oh he's playing to his crazy town meta" I'm tunneling too, though. I honestly think my case is stronger than yours tali. Do you feel your case on drop is stronger than my case on viv? This feels townie to me. I thought it was super scummy but then I realized that he's telling Tali to stop tunnelling DropBear, not Risen. On July 14 2012 05:44 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 05:21 marvellosity wrote: I'm not sure I can get behind a Vivax lynch. His scum filter from Newbie XVI is here where he lurked and summarised stuff. Here he is active and pushing stuff, even if he's doing it badly. This is your response to my case? Really? Town marv doesn't completely avoid answering anything I raised in my case by sidestepping it and posting a "meta-read" I'm not sure what to make of this post. It definitely makes sense from a scum point of view IMO; the thing is, it also makes sense from a town point of view if Risen was like really super confident in his read on Vivax. On July 14 2012 05:42 Risen wrote: I'm convinces at this point two of viv/s0L/marv/austin have to be scum... This is so circlejerky it hurts... it's literally flooding the thread to defend vivax. Ditto this one. Risen do you still believe this? Do you think solstice and austin are scum? Yeah, I don't know what to think about Risen right now. The options include - he was unreasonably sure about his case on vivax; I'm sure that's what he'll say, and it's not impossible as town, I know I've felt like that about my cases on people when I was town in the past (cases that turned out to be both correct and incorrect) - he was chainsaw defending Dropbear; I could see a scum team thinking they needed to make someone look like a realistic alternative for the lynch to consolidate onto - there are other possibilities, but IMO they're very unlikely to be true (eg, risen is scum but just decided to be really attention-grabbing for no reason; risen is town and wasn't that sure about his case on vivax, but felt under pressure to seem confident; etc) Yeah, so I guess right now I'm leaning "town unless dropbear is scum" on Risen, since I think his behavior makes little sense as scum unless he was chainsaw defending dropbear. | ||
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Here's his first post after D1: On July 12 2012 15:00 DropBear wrote: Hello everyone. I strongly disagree with town roleblocker being forced to claim, let alone not using their power. Having been one in past games that actually managed to block mafia KP I can testify to the usefulness of using this power. With the added possibility of jailkeeper and mafia roleblocker any claim could be complete bogus anyway and would be very difficult to verify. If you are town roleblocker do not claim! One thing I would like to say about how we go about things, please don't overpost. Say what you need to say and shut up. Be concise and clear. This does not mean don't post, nor does it mean don't post often. It means don't post crap that doesn't need to be said. Stuff like this isn't necessary and clogs up your filter, please don't do it. The first part is random D1 setup discussion, not very important. Let's look one more time at that second part: On July 12 2012 15:00 DropBear wrote: One thing I would like to say about how we go about things, please don't overpost. Say what you need to say and shut up. Be concise and clear. This does not mean don't post, nor does it mean don't post often. It means don't post crap that doesn't need to be said. Okay, that's fine; it's not really a big deal most of the time, but overposting can make the thread harder to follow and make it harder for people with less time to dig through for information and scum hunt. Most importantly, overposts like the one he quotes add to people's filters without giving information or opinions that town can build on. So this is decent advice, I guess. So now with that in mind, we're going to look at dropbear's next several posts, in order: + Show Spoiler [derpbear's next 13 posts] + 1) On July 12 2012 15:14 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:06 Keirathi wrote: I don't think anyone is saying roleblocker should never, under any circumstances, use their power. But it needs to be used with extreme caution because you probably have a higher chance (or at the very least, equal) of blocking a town blue than blocking a KP if you just pick randomly. There are certainly situations where it can be a useful power, of course, but its much safer just to not use it until you have good, solid reads. People have in fact said that it shouldn't be used period. Gonzaw talismania 2) On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. 3) On July 12 2012 15:22 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 15:14 sciberbia wrote: @keirathi, @Dropbear, @Risen Do you guys have any suspicions yet? Maybe you could comment on my post about risen/marv or about gonzaw's accusations of risen/strongandbig/Mattchew? This thread is too quiet for my liking -- please share some of your thoughts. For mine I have no idea yet, we are only 3 pages in or so? As to gonzaw's post, I think he is trying too hard. A hello post is extremely common and says absolutely nothing about alignment. Give them time. Points for effort mate but really a bit much so early. As to your post on marv, I completely disagree. Attacking a stupid plan is fine. He might still be mafia, who knows? But I disagree with your reasoning as to why he is. 4) On July 12 2012 18:09 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 16:10 gonzaw wrote: On July 12 2012 15:38 Keirathi wrote: On July 12 2012 15:14 DropBear wrote: On July 12 2012 15:06 Keirathi wrote: I don't think anyone is saying roleblocker should never, under any circumstances, use their power. But it needs to be used with extreme caution because you probably have a higher chance (or at the very least, equal) of blocking a town blue than blocking a KP if you just pick randomly. There are certainly situations where it can be a useful power, of course, but its much safer just to not use it until you have good, solid reads. People have in fact said that it shouldn't be used period. Gonzaw talismania Then I completely disagree with them. I'm still not positive they mean that there is a never a situation where RB can be useful, but if they think that then I encourage them to think harder. Obviously there are exceptions. If there are 2 "very obvious scum" or something (and only 2 scum remain) then he can try to RB those. But him trying to RB at random on N1 or even on N2 seems too risky to me, specially if that guys doesn't have very good reads (and isn't lucky). @Dropbear: I don't like your attitude. You just busted into the thread, basically discredited everything everybody said, and discredited every accusation anybody else has done, and that's it. All the while acting like you own the place or something (without actually taking charge). However you are not progressing at all, you are just complaining. Actually lets get the ball rolling (this thread is VERY silent so far, hopefully this changes that): ##Vote: Dropbear You're just mad that I think your idea on the roleblocker is bad and your cases are bad. 5) On July 13 2012 01:32 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 00:45 talismania wrote: On July 12 2012 15:14 DropBear wrote: On July 12 2012 15:06 Keirathi wrote: I don't think anyone is saying roleblocker should never, under any circumstances, use their power. But it needs to be used with extreme caution because you probably have a higher chance (or at the very least, equal) of blocking a town blue than blocking a KP if you just pick randomly. There are certainly situations where it can be a useful power, of course, but its much safer just to not use it until you have good, solid reads. People have in fact said that it shouldn't be used period. Gonzaw talismania Yo so this isn't true at all. I've been very clear from the beginning that I think the roleblocker should not use their power unless they have a clear shot with it or the situation demands it. Essentially, don't use it N1 or N2, then proceed cautiously. Your post clearly says you can't see a reason behind using it. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:05 talismania wrote: @gonzaw on the RB: yeah for sure I don't think there's any point to a RB using their power. What did you mean then? The first post or this not on night1 or 2 post?> 6) On July 13 2012 01:33 DropBear wrote: Talismania are you saying that your plan was completely bogus then? 7) On July 13 2012 01:34 DropBear wrote: EBWOP: cos if so then that changes a few things. 8) On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote: Vivax I am very confused as the reasoning behind your voting so far. Why did you choose strongandbig initially? Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote: @ NSH It's cause of a habit. I just tend to expect links in underlined words <_<. Back to the topic: ##unvote strongandbig Very informative post about marv there. Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted. He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive. Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one. s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game. That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? What are the differences in sciberbia you talk about? 9) On July 13 2012 01:40 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 01:37 talismania wrote: No I don't think my plan was completely bogus. A variant worked in bastard 2 as you should know. I don't think it's that terrible if everyone follows it. Did I expect people to follow it? No. Did I expect people to react? Yes of course. Not sure how useful the reactions are but you can see my handydandy summary above. I spent the entirety of bastard 2 arguing with a brick wall i.e. Acrofales. I can't even remember this plan you speak of lol. 10) On July 13 2012 01:59 DropBear wrote: Marvellosity you have made so much sense so far that it makes me smile 11) On July 13 2012 02:00 DropBear wrote: ##Vote Vivax 12) On July 13 2012 02:58 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 02:20 talismania wrote: On July 13 2012 02:00 DropBear wrote: ##Vote Vivax the hell? any reasons beyond what marv said? I called him out as being suss last page, do you read boy? 13) On July 13 2012 16:29 DropBear wrote: Dear god gonzaw so many words. So so many words Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 05:49 talismania wrote: Time to poke the hornet's nest again dropbear what's your response to this (below)? The way I see it, you made a post asking vivax some questions with some implied suspicion maybe. Then marv votes vivax and you eagerly hop on the wagon. When called out, you say you called him out for being suspicious the page earlier, but the only post you made in reference to him was just the one where you asked him questions. You never actually called him out for being suspicious as you said. On July 13 2012 03:04 talismania wrote: if you mean this On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote: Vivax I am very confused as the reasoning behind your voting so far. Why did you choose strongandbig initially? On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote: @ NSH It's cause of a habit. I just tend to expect links in underlined words <_<. Back to the topic: ##unvote strongandbig Very informative post about marv there. Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted. He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive. Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one. s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game. That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? What are the differences in sciberbia you talk about? then I don't see you calling him suspicious, but just asking him questions. Implied suspicion I'll give you, but not calling him out as being suspicious by any means. Also good to know you're just as angry as in bastard 2 :-) Marv took the words out of my mouth. I was in the middle of a post in response to Vivax myself. I prodded, got an answer and responded with my vote, it's pretty clear. That's enough for now. Let's do a little bit of analysis! First, the overall trend is pretty damning. After saying we shouldn't post things that aren't necessary and shouldn't overpost in general, he posts pretty much nothing but small posts that don't actually give any information. I would argue specifically that posts 4, 9, and 10 directly violate his "don't overpost" directive. Now, you guys are probably like "but that's only two posts, why does it matter?" Well, when someone starts out the game by giving advice to town like that, it's important to see if they're following it. If they're town, then their beginning-of-game advice is going to be coming from some idea of what makes posting pro-town, what makes a good town environment, etc - and they're going to be following that advice when posting as town. On the other hand, giving start-of-game advice is a good tactic for scum to do almost all the time, especially when it's really general stuff like "don't overpost". It gives the townies a good first impression of them, which can color the townies' impressions of their later posts; it starts their filter off with something that looks protown, again getting them psychological first-impression points; and it doesn't cost them anything in terms of information given to the town. However, scum are much more likely than town not to follow their own start-of-game advice. Whereas a townie's posts come from the same mindset that led them to give that advice in the first place, scum's don't; it's like putting another ball in the air to juggle. Now if you're still hung up on the fact that "it's only two posts", despite the fact that it's like a quarter of everything I quoted, let's look at some of the other things he posted. Posts 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 and 12 do what I would call "violating the spirit of the law, if not the letter." Sure, they include a little bit of information; but they are short and their content is minor. Post 1 is just links without opinion or analysis; post 2 disagrees with Tali's plan for no reason and besides that is contentless; post 5 is about the stupid "don't use roleblocker when it doesn't make sense" issue Marv made fun of a while ago; posts 6 and 7 ask a question of Tali and tell us "it changes things" but don't provide any information for town or any hint of dropbear's own opinion; and post 12 is a pretty dismissive allusion to one of dropbear's earlier posts that isn't actually relevant. I contend that in general DropBear is not following the spirit of his pregame advice, even though he is mostly (but not nearly always) following the letter of it. Finally I'd like to look at DropBear's vote on Vivax, post 11. Note how it comes with little to no reasoning. His was on page 13 of the thread, loooong before there was any reason to start consolidating. Additionally, DropBear gets called out for not having any reasoning; in a dismissive, contentless one-liner (post 12), he refers us to his earlier posts in the thread for calling out Vivax as being suspicious. Well, I don't see anything like that; the closest I see is post 9 where he just asks some questions. I mean, agreeing with a case on someone is fine, I guess, although ideally if it's that early in the day you would post some reasoning of your own or at least explain what about the case you agree with; but DropBear's first response to being pressured on his reason for voting isn't "I agree with Marv's case on him," it's "I already called him out." DropBear actually didn't already call him out, but it's just as important to note that the first instinct wasn't to explain his reasoning for the vote, it was to defend himself as being consistent. I find this scummy. + Show Spoiler [why this point isn't hypocritical] + I did also vote without putting my reasoning in the same post; but my vote was (pretty clearly I hope) an attempt to get people to consolidate before the deadline. (Additionally, I actually had earlier expressed a willingness to vote for Vivax by putting a pressure vote on Vivax, although looking back I wish I had posted more reasoning.) So if you want to be able to sum up this case in a few sentences, here they are (the tl;dr in other words). In his first post after the game started, DropBear gave town the advice not to post more than necessary and not to post without content. He did not follow this advice, and I presented three posts by him that I think were unnecessary and contentless; I also argued that his filter in general contains many posts with a bare minimum of content that violate the spirit of his advice. Additionally, his vote on Vivax was suspect - it came purely from agreeing with Marv's reasoning, but was way before there was any need to consolidate, and when pressed on not having his own reasoning, his first instinct was not to explain himself, but to distort his own previous posts in such a way as to make him seem more consistent. ##vote: DropBear | ||
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On July 16 2012 06:53 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 16 2012 06:48 sciberbia wrote: "Heh heh heh. Town is trying to lynch one of us three scum: mattchew, talis, and gonzaw. How can I throw them off track? Oh I know! I'll leave my vote on sciberbia and mysteriously dissapear. Without my vote, there is no way they'll get a scum. Heh heh heh. I am the brilliant scum mastermind, Mattchew. And there's no way anyone will find my disapearence suspicious" It's just ridiculous. His disappearing is a busytell, not a scumtell. If Mattchew was scum, how hard would it have been to just hang around and sheep marv's vote? Not that hard. Being around for the lynch but not doing anything (i.e. talis) is more suspicious than not being there at all. Mattchew did very similar stuff in MTG. He went AFK for the WHOLE D1 and he didn't give a fuck about being called out. Him being afk itself isn't worrying, it's worrying when it's obvious he doesn't give a shit about anything and isn't even trying to explain himself about his inactivity and lack of effort. I'm torn because his earlier posts did seem townie, but that behaviour of his strikes some doubt (specially if it wasn't for some outside reason, like getting his internet connection cut or something). I'll try to drop the subject before reading this thread and his case on talis; but this is basically exclusive since it's about his earlier behaviour. Show nested quote + gonzaw telling our vig to shoot Mattchew over this is one of the reasons I'm suspicious of gonzaw That was marv Gonzaw do you really not see the difference between how mattchew is posting this game and how he posted in mtg? I'm like 75 percent sure mattchew is town right now. | ||
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On July 16 2012 07:12 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 16 2012 07:03 sciberbia wrote: @gonzaw Don't you think Mattchew expected to get some serious flak for disappearing? If he was scum and did it on purpose yes (if he's town then he obviously didn't think about it). Show nested quote + I just don't get why scum Mattchew would intentionally draw suspicion to himself unless he had a legit reason for vanishing. I guess you don't know scum Mattchew and what he's capable of. Some scum don't give a shit about slight "WIFOMy" suspicion on themselves if they can get it away easily later or shift attention elsewhere and keep doing what they do. Risen, Mattchew, Palmar, Ace, etc are some players that tend to act like that as scum every once and then I don't know if its a busytell if I don't get a reasonable explanation for it. He WAS active when he made those posts, and there were lots of discussion going on about Vivax, Dropbear, Keirathi, solstice, etc. At that point in time (if he didn't just come, post and immediately leave) there were tons of things he could have done to help town, keeping his vote on sciberbia and not explaining anything isn't part of that. Unless he was in such a hurry he only had time to post and not read the thread at all (and he still believed sciberbia was scum); then it's not a "busytell" and it's odd as fuck. Him not explaining himself at all until I JUST asked him to is odd as fuck as well. (damn, I see this is taking quite a detour in town discussion. Matt please explain EVERYTHING that went through your mind at that time and what you did (i.e what activity you had, if you were actually reading the thread or just posted and left, etc) so we can get this over with) Gonzaw I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with this. What fucking difference does it make whether or not he explains himself? If we think he's town it doesn't matter and if we think he's scum we can't believe him anyway. He disappeared; that's scummy or it's not. But stop obsessing over it. What do you think about my case on dropbear? What do you think about Matt's case on Talismania? | ||
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On July 16 2012 08:50 s0Lstice wrote: I addressed your three points s&b. -'cases' instead scum read -'omgus when he defends himself -connections/entire scum team reads correct? You're right. This time it's my fault for not reading well enough. My bad. But to be fair you're wrong about the "omgus" thing. I did say your case on me smelled scummy, but that included addressing the points it contained and explaining why they were wrong. The difference is that when Risen was under suspicion, he didn't say "the points against me are wrong and here's why that's scummy," he said "you fools! look over there, it's scum!" | ||
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On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow. My case on talismania fixation on his plan This has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). no next On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 07:56 Risen wrote: Welcome to ICBINTMM in which Risen does not post in caps or call anyone an idiot THE ENTIRE GAME. Stay tuned to see if this actually happens...... Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 07:33 strongandbig wrote: sup bros i am currently watching Le Closer in french in my hotel room. Scum y'all best get ready to get motherfucking interrogated Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 06:33 Mattchew wrote: alight lets do this. no zentor means no policy lynch based on names for me. You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:05 austinmcc wrote: Screw the number and size of posts. I'm not a scientist, but it looks like talismania's been town --> scum --> town --> scum --> town. Therefore, he's scum this game. I know that millers are supposed to claim D1, but I don't see why we'd want claims on other roles right now. Except from marv, who needs to let us know whether he's a vigi or scum this game, since those are the only roles that he rolls. But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote: Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. Show nested quote + On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote: pardon me for some half-assed musing: since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. I like this point. There really was no need to go through every single person's reactions and compile them like that. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: consistently wishy/washy Here are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator. Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 01:39 marvellosity wrote: quick question tali - what pushes you to Dropbear rather than austin? actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I like this point as well. I don't know why scum often seem wishy-washy like this, since it doesn't make sense - it's much better strategically for them to be confident and later say "I was wrong" than to hedge their bets, but that's not what they do in practice. I think it may be subconscious. I know I did it when I was scum, but I was a lot more noobish then than Talismania is now. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I don't like his approach to the lynch I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I like this point as well. Especially the fact that Talismania had been pushing dropbear, had even made a case on him and had his vote on him, and was "torn between dropbear and austin," and had never actually posted anything about how he felt about vivax, but didn't do anything to oppose the vivax lynch or to push the lynch off of vivax and onto dropbear. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 07:01 talismania wrote: well here's to hoping I was completely wrong For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote: argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote: jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. I don't agree with this point as much, since I believe Talismania meant "well I hope I was wrong and dropbear really is scum" not "well I hope I was wrong and vivax isn't really town." I see talis as having been neutral on vivax. However, it's still pretty damning that he didn't do anything to push the lynch off of his nullread and onto his scumread. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads) He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 09:54 talismania wrote: @marv: nice shit. solstice was pretty on point activity-wise in ssb64 despite being kind of wrong the whole game (he did get better late game). He simply hasn't been around this game that much. Very curious to see what he thinks of the austin situation since he claims he can read austin so well. Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 07:57 talismania wrote: ps risen where you at? Gonzaw wrote some great stuff about you and I want to hear your cases/suspicions since I can't recall actually seeing anything from you along those lines yet. I think this point is null. The way Gonzaw plays, since he posts so much and still manages to be mostly articulate and reasonable, and since he's one of the more veteran players here, it really is easier as town to just go with him. IMO Gonzaw's blessing and curse as town is that his ability to lead a town through thread control and bullying developed a whole lot faster than his actual ability to find scum. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: does not defend his townreads He never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania As I said above, I dont see evidence in Talismania's filter that he really had a townread on Vivax, and neither Matt nor I were really in much danger of being lynched yesterday so there was no need to expend "thread capital" to defend us. This point is pretty null for me. Overall, I would be pretty happy with a Talismania lynch. However, as far as I can see the only reactions to my case on DropBear were his own defense against it and Gonzaw's saying his defense was pretty good. I'd like to hear from a few more people what they think about my points on "not following his own advice" and the way he defended his vote on vivax. Pre-edit: I see that scibebia posted about dropbear while I was writing this - I want to ask, why is his being a "consensus lynch target" a good thing? That would indicate to me that either he's town, or his scum buddies are bussing him and we won't gain as much info from his lynch. Note that I'm not saying that because there is consensus, it means he's town and we shouldn't lynch him; people sometimes do say that but I think it's pretty incorrect. However, scberbia I'm asking you specifically, what does his being a "consensus lynch target" mean and why do you say it there? | ||
strongandbig
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
I still think s0lstice and dropbear look scummy though. ##unvote ##vote: talismania | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
he actually broke his wrist that wasn't a lie? and he still flipped scum? Talismania if you tried the "I broke my wrist" gambit I would be in so much admiration. Also On July 17 2012 06:47 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On July 17 2012 06:43 s0Lstice wrote: also @mattchew, I'd like to know your thoughts on Risen After the flip and later tonight. For now, we lynch Talis. GTG sounds a lot like Ace lynching a townie. I was super ready to jump all over mattchew but the fact that talismania flipped scum makes me feel a lot better about matt. | ||
strongandbig
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 18 2012 07:02 GMT
#1077
there's no reason to lynch risen today. if he lives tomorrow then we can start thinking about lynching him but we should be lynching someone else today. i'm down to lynch keirathi or gonzaw, i'll try and post more later today but I can't promise anything since it's been pretty busy at work i'll definitely post more before the lynch though | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 18 2012 08:10 GMT
#1084
@Milton there's another option - we have a town aligned JK or RB who roleblocked scum N1, and scum didn't claim it then. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 18 2012 08:26 GMT
#1086
I also think Sciberbia is town. His case on Talismania really convinced me to lynch him. Yes it could have been a bus, but it would have been a real hardcore old-school bus, where he actually helped lead the lynch rather than just voicing suspicion or sheeping votes, and I find it unlikely that a relatively new player busses his godfather in that way. I have to reread his filter, but I still mostly think Mattchew is town; even in very active scum games from him he isn't actually helpful, he just pretends to be. That means that I think the two scum are in the list: miltonkram dropbear keirathi gonzaw These make pretty good odds. Out of these, Milton has been giving me the least amount of scum vibes; I've made cases on Dropbear and Keirathi in the past and would be fine lynching them, and I need to think about Gonzaw but I might be able to get behind a lynch on him today as well. One thing to consider though - I don't really like how Risen let people think he had a red check on Gonzaw, and then claimed just two green checks. That's the only thing currently making me hesitate, but I still feel pretty strongly that we shouldn't lynch Risen today. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 18 2012 17:08 GMT
#1107
On July 18 2012 19:15 Risen wrote: Sigh... I don't think gonzaw is scum and I wanted to live through the night so I was playing stupid but I guess my claim was going to force me to go all in sooner or later. I'm inclined to think you're town, as well. I really think scum team is keir/matt. Wanted to keep my suspicions of him masked until keir flipped. what. this makes no sense to me. why would you claim your role but then "keep your suspicions veiled"? Why would you let everyone think you thought gonzaw was scum, if you didn't really think he was scum? | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 18 2012 18:26 GMT
#1112
risen when you said + Show Spoiler [this] + On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: Town in my eyes me strongandbig s0Lstice dude whatever it's summer miltonkram dropbear keirathi sciberbia mattchew (completely dependent on gonzaw flip or mason claim) scummy as fuck gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted) ##vote gonzaw List order is from town in my eyes to scum in my eyes. If gonzaw flips scum Mattchew becomes scummier in my eyes (unless he's the mason partner in which case confirmed town). I don't think milton is scummy b/c why would his teammates misspell his name. Dropbear and tali beign scum would mean double scum up for lynch d1 and I don't see that as likely. Scib and Keir could be swapped, I can't tell whether my dislike of Keir is b/c he doesn't like me or b/c I genuinely find him scummy. I would really like to claim so if the mason could claim right now I'd be pretty pleased. There's a good chance that with mason claim we might just be winning (regardless of gonzaw alignment) | ||
strongandbig
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July 18 2012 21:53 GMT
#1143
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strongandbig
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July 18 2012 21:53 GMT
#1145
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 10:16 GMT
#1284
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 11:39 GMT
#1285
On July 19 2012 12:28 gonzaw wrote: Framers only frame townies to get a red check (never heard of framers being able to frame their own buddies to get them to check "town"...that's what Godfathers do). This is egregious. Every time a framer has been mentioned in a thread since I've started playing TL mafia, someone has mentioned the possibility of framing their teammates; there's no reason to assume the opposite so blithely. It's just, like, enough is enough - at a certain point we have to assume that this is malicious. I just can't decide what the odds are that Gonzaw would actually do as much work as he is claiming and posting without even reading the OP. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 13:25 GMT
#1287
To be more specific, Matt is terrible at posting cases and things that get people to do things. He's very good at not getting lynches as scum, and he's no worse than anyone else with finding scum when he's town. But your case relies on him having bussed talis and there being a difference between his day 1 and his day 2. You're ignoring his flailing during the first half of day 1, as well as the fact that his case against Talismania was terrible and it was sciberbia who actually persuaded people to kill Talismania. Now, I don't have any really compelling reasons why Matt is town other than a semi-gut-read which says that he's putting a lot more effort into posting about other people than he usually does as scum, and that he's not a cancer on the town atmosphere like he usually is. So I don't expect that to persuade you; but I do not find your case at all persuasive. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 13:26 GMT
#1288
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 13:34 GMT
#1289
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:05 GMT
#1292
On July 19 2012 14:37 Miltonkram wrote: @ Risen I don't think DropBear is scum. He attacked talismania fairly early on D1. Talismania attacked him too. It's possible that they were bussing each other early, but I find it extremely unlikely. Because of that I'm giving DropBear the BOTD. @ Gonzaw I have a small filter because I've been busy. If you've looked through my filter you'd notice that I had to help my father move. The move happened rather suddenly so I wasn't able to budget time in for this game, hence me missing the vote D2. I'm doing my best to catch up and contribute today, but there is a lot of posts to wade through. Wait a minute I was just reading Milton's filter and I saw this He makes a case on Talismania day 1, then jumps off him onto dropbear Then at the start of day 2 he still says dropbear is his top scum read for a large number of reasons, none of which changed when Talismania flipped scum. Note also that dropbear didn't actually vote Talismania despite "going after Talismania" being the main reason people think he's town. I think either dropbear/Gonzaw or dropbear/Milton is the scum team. ##vote: dropbear | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:22 GMT
#1298
The difference is when he's town he tries to when he's scum he doesn't. I'll read lvi when I get home but he was town in lv with me and played way less logical and helpfully than he has this game. That's not a town tell. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:22 GMT
#1299
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:39 GMT
#1307
What is the case on risen? My reasons for being suspicious of him are mostly that he let everyone think he had a scum investigation on Gonzaw and that Gonzaw was his top scum read, which was apparently a lie. However I'm not willing to lynch him for that yet. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:44 GMT
#1311
So reading dropbear's filter makes him seem scummy but talismania's filter is confusing - I need to think for a little bit. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 14:52 GMT
#1314
On July 19 2012 23:40 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On July 19 2012 23:30 DropBear wrote: On July 19 2012 23:26 Mattchew wrote: Dropbear what do you think of gonzaw, my case against him, and the most recent points I've brought up Also what do you make of people lying about you pushing Talis ??? I kind of did push talis on day 1, secondary to Vivax though. Same on day 2, I pushed solstice mostly with talis secondary. I never properly committed to a solely talis push, yes, but I brought him up regularly especially on day 1. I think your case against him is ok but not great. Kind of like solstice's case on you. I would lynch Keirathi over gonzaw and unless somewhere Risen has god-forbid actually answered my question, I would take Risen over both of them. S&B, this is why I think dropbear is town, do you think a scum would actaully say out loud that a scum member lynch took a backseat to a mislynch? Aren't scum supposed to be paranoid and afraid to share? Has dropbear lied or appeared fearful of posting in the thread? Okay, this is also true. Not enough for me to put dropbear in the town category but enough for me to unvote him. ##unvote Now dropbear, what if Milton is scum and is lying? Or if he was jail kept for some unfathomable reason? Then lynching risen hurts us enormously. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 16:42 GMT
#1332
why did I and half the rest of the thread think that's why you were voting Gonzaw? Actually tbh my reading of your post with the lol it's summer list was that you had a green check on me, a red check on gonzaw, and thought you'd found some breadcrumb or behavior indicating that solstice was the second mason. Seriously, you did nothing to differentiate between the way you presented your "townreads" on solstice and me, and your "scumread" on gonzaw, and you backed that last one up with a vote. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 16:45 GMT
#1333
On July 20 2012 01:16 DropBear wrote: Ok I'm moving on from Risen, I want to lynch Keirathi. There are five main points against him for mine. 1. Firstly, he backs up and sheeps tali's case against me on day 2. Show nested quote + On July 14 2012 05:15 Keirathi wrote: DropBear Along with tali, I feel like he was been entirely overaggressive and disruptive with thinks like + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 02:58 DropBear wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2012 02:20 talismania wrote: On July 13 2012 02:00 DropBear wrote: ##Vote Vivax the hell? any reasons beyond what marv said? I called him out as being suss last page, do you read boy? 2. His avoidance of voting for tali day 2. He clearly doesn't want to vote for tali, but doesn't give any other options. Not only this he puts in a martyr at the end. Show nested quote + On July 17 2012 05:45 Keirathi wrote: Man, missing 90% of the day is frustrating. I'm second guessing everything at this point, and don't have any really strong townie reads. Also I really don't know what I think about tali. There's so many cases against him, and they are all decent, but none of them are damning I think. Maybe enough little things adds up to him being scum, but I remain unconvinced. Almost everything about him is either directly relating to his plan, or relating to things that branched out from his plan. I agree that his plan was really bad and I don't want to support bad play, but like Milton pointed out, he was entirely too invested in it. I don't really see scum as staying that invested into pushing something to intentionally bring attention onto himself. Something about this case and being so little opposition just feels bandwagonny. If I'm wrong, it probably means I get lynched tomorrow because of this post though 3. So who does he vote? Show nested quote + On July 17 2012 06:51 Keirathi wrote: Bleh catch 22. Have to vote but I don't particularly feel good about the tali lynch. I don't think its impossible that he is scum, but I'm decently positive he's not. I don't really think Drop or s0lstice are great cases either. So who the eff to vote for. My gut read on a throwaway vote, or the popular read with no conviction?! Who does he vote? sciberbia, the first person to make a case against tali. 4. Next he jumps rapidly onto the gonzaw bandwagon. Sole reasoning here. Note that a lack of explanation behind a vote was a key reason he voted for me on day 1, this is a double standard. 5. Lastly his ragequit. If he was actually a townie, he's arguing for a deliberate mislynch here. Show nested quote + On July 18 2012 16:48 Keirathi wrote: On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote: It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way) And maybe strongandbig sees it. Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi He mentions the real scum a lot, but his lynch plan was the same as mine, lynch Risen to confirm two townies. No scumhunting there. Also, I have only seen a ragequit like this once before; ilovejonn in mafia 39 who was scum and was backed into a corner so this is what he did. ##Unvote ##Vote Keirathi This, I can get behind. Just psychologically I think it's likely that at least one scum wasn't involved in pushing the tali lynch, if not both. It makes sense that a newer player would have trouble pushing his godfather. Plus I 100% agree on the ragequit. It just seemed so unneccesary from a townie viewpoint, there weren't even that many votes on him; he just couldn't get whoever was active in the thread at the time to believe that he was town. ##vote: keirathi | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:01 GMT
#1335
I would be willing to vote for, from most preferred to least, the following people: - Keirathi - Gonzaw - Milton or DropBear I think Matt and Sci are town, and for the moment I'm accepting Risen's claim at least until we see the flip and NK. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:04 GMT
#1340
On July 20 2012 02:01 Risen wrote: Ebwop: just read your sig and I'm dying laughing right now strongandbig the funnier thing is how in a later game I played with Drazerk he tried to use my sig as evidence for how townies mess up too much, and I'm just like, drazerk I think you missed the point | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:09 GMT
#1344
On July 20 2012 02:03 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2012 02:01 strongandbig wrote: so the deadline is in ~5 hours, we should be thinking about consolidation. I would be willing to vote for, from most preferred to least, the following people: - Keirathi - Gonzaw - Milton or DropBear I think Matt and Sci are town, and for the moment I'm accepting Risen's claim at least until we see the flip and NK. If keir flips green what is your plan? I think I have something posted somewhere. So I actually had a paragraph of hypothetical speculation written up but then I realized this question makes no sense. If Keir flips green my plan is to find scum and kill them. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:10 GMT
#1346
On July 20 2012 02:06 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2012 02:02 sciberbia wrote: Guys I really don't think keirathi is a good lynch. Read his filter back to front. There really isn't anything that scummy and a few things feel townie. Point 1 - really not that suspicious Point 2 & 3 - okay yea he made a bad read. he got caught up on the idea I was scum and talis was not. It still feels townie though. s0Lstice seems much more suspicious for originally "strongly agreeing" with the cases against talis and then getting cold feet after 1 minor point from miltonkram point 4 - he understandably misread risen's claim point 5 - I grant this is somwhat suspicious His tone of posting since D2 just feels townie to me. Overall, I just don't see enough evidence to warrant a lynch. My read is based entirely on his day 3 play. Seriously who lynches a cop claim when the cop is either going to die that night or come back with another check then get lynched the next day? sigh. DOUBLE FUCKING SIGH. Either milton is scum or there's a roleblocker (or both, possibly but unlikely). | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:11 GMT
#1348
i'm officially willing to lynch risen now. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 17:16 GMT
#1350
well, I'll lynch gonzaw or risen if keirathi's not happening but i'll keep my vote on keirathi until I get home, see you fools in a few hours. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 19:51 GMT
#1400
honestly people can you really see risen fakeclaiming cop and then doing it this badly? | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 20:05 GMT
#1402
but i still think keirathi is scummier but yeah im down to lynch gonzaw, if nothing else then for somehow managing to make "not reading the thread" into an art form ## unvote ## vote gonzaw | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 21:53 GMT
#1480
risen, what the fuck are you doing. if you're town idk what the fuck you're doing. if you're scum idk what the fuck you're doing either. like, if you think matt is town then fucking switch to gonzaw. pretty sure we should be lynching gonzaw now guys. this thing where he complains about how TL mafia is going to stop loving him doesn't smell right to me. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:05 GMT
#1520
fuck you | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:06 GMT
#1521
you stop messing with my head | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:14 GMT
#1537
On July 20 2012 07:08 gonzaw wrote: Hye S&B! Show nested quote + On July 19 2012 20:39 strongandbig wrote: On July 19 2012 12:28 gonzaw wrote: Framers only frame townies to get a red check (never heard of framers being able to frame their own buddies to get them to check "town"...that's what Godfathers do). This is egregious. Every time a framer has been mentioned in a thread since I've started playing TL mafia, someone has mentioned the possibility of framing their teammates; there's no reason to assume the opposite so blithely. It's just, like, enough is enough - at a certain point we have to assume that this is malicious. I just can't decide what the odds are that Gonzaw would actually do as much work as he is claiming and posting without even reading the OP. Do you plan on backing up this statement now? I'd like you to convince me there is a Framer that can get a buddy of his to turn green to a check, if you know what I mean No I don't. IDK whether you're scum. I had mattchew read correctly both previous times he was scum with me, so this time I was pretty confident in my read on him, but I was wrong. That doesn't mean you're town, or not. Still up in the air. But I stand by the statement that you've managed to turn "not reading the thread" into an art form. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:18 GMT
#1546
you remember what I said about not reading the thread? | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:19 GMT
#1548
On July 20 2012 07:16 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2012 07:14 Keirathi wrote: EBWOP: Wait... S&B && S0lstice 100% confirmed town, UNLESS Risen is a townie fake claiming cop. The jig is up! I fake claimed cop guys. It worked, tough! On July 20 2012 07:16 gonzaw wrote: There's no point in claiming tonight though, do so tomorrow in our massclaim On July 20 2012 07:18 gonzaw wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2012 07:17 Keirathi wrote: On July 20 2012 07:16 gonzaw wrote: Oh nevermind, I guess we can't have confirmed townies then ...UNLESS THE FUCKING MASON CLAIMED!!!! ARGHGHGHHGG What. Yes we can. Matt was a GOON. That means if the last scum is a framer, they couldnt target themselves. So there are 2 options: 1) Risen is a cop, and both of his checks are legit. 2) Risen is the 3rd mafia. FUck me I'm sorry I'm too derp for this setup stuff You are right then, S&B+solstice confirmed town | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:20 GMT
#1550
i hope honestly risen you've derped enough that i would believe it | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:21 GMT
#1552
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck and solstice and i were your strongest town reads?????? | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:22 GMT
#1554
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:23 GMT
#1556
like i'm townie as fuck but i wasn't pushing tali hard like sciberia was and solstice is scummy as all get out risen you make no sense | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:23 GMT
#1558
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:27 GMT
#1565
On July 20 2012 07:23 gonzaw wrote: Okay, these are the possibilities: Remaining scum role:
Conclusion: No matter what role scum has, solstice and S&B are confirmed town Unless there is a JK who DIDN'T JAIL ANYBODY ON N1 (which I find very hard to believe) AND one of S&B or solstice is GF. I find this unlikely though, but we'll find out in tomorrow's massclaim! what the fuck are you doing are you just doing this to troll me now | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:40 GMT
#1573
that way my rage will decrease enough to allow myself to sleep | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 22:44 GMT
#1574
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 19 2012 23:06 GMT
#1583
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 06:51 GMT
#1595
sciberbia is possible scum but i just think it doesnt seem likely because of the talismania flip - that would mean the godfather lynch wagon was pushed almost entirely by scum. That leaves DerpBear. Who I already thought was scum, if you'll recall. Let's lynch him tomorrow. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 09:12 GMT
#1596
Anyway expanding on my post above this one, since I'm saying "we should be looking for scum among the people who didn't vote for Mattchew", I guess I should address the possibility that I might be scum. It's true - I did defend Mattchew. That's because I thought he was town; he had me fooled. Before this game, I've played three with him - he was scum in two of them, and I had him read correctly in both. In one of those games I vig shot him, in the other I tried to get him lynched but was foiled by a last-minute switch. Anyway, the point is I felt pretty confident in my ability to read him as scum. In Holy Roman mafia, he played a very active scum game, trying to exert a lot of thread presence and move town in his direction. In MTG mafia, he played the opposite, super lurking but keeping himself just townier-looking than some of the actual townies who slipped up or were playing poorly. But I thought I'd found enough similarities between those games that I could read his scum play; however, that turns out to have been incorrect. I should have paid more attention this game to his play N2 and D3 rather than sticking with my townread based on his D1 and D2 play. So there's my townie motivation for defending Mattchew and trying to get people to switch to Gonzaw - I had a townread on Mattchew that I felt kind of confident in, and I wanted to defend my townread and get people to switch to Gonzaw, who I have a lot of trouble reading in general but who Mattchew and Sciberbia, both of whom I had townreads on and both of whom were behind the Talismania lynch, felt strongly was scum and were making pretty convincing cases about. So there you go. My motivation right now is to put as much information out there as I can to back up my position, which is "we should lynch into the group (dropbear, sciberbia, gonzaw)." Those are the people who didn't vote for Mattchew, plus Gonzaw minus me. Within that group we should be lynching dropbear; I think my case on him for not following his own advice and other things still holds true, plus I think sciberbia is town. Gonzaw could still be scum but he speaks truth when he says that the way he and Matt went after each other would be terrible strategy; and after Liar Game I think if there's one thing he's good at it's scum strategy. If you still think I'm scum I guess that's fair given my last vote and what I tried to get the thread to do at the end of D3; but I'll just point out that I did put the hammer on Talismania, which (if a bus) would have been the worst bus ever since I didn't actually post cases on him or put myself in a position to gain from his flip. I'll be willing to defend myself or answer questions or whatever. But I really think we should be lynching dropbear. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 09:15 GMT
#1597
I guess it's possible we have a JK left and they jailed Milton, but that's not a claim we can easily confirm since a scum roleblocker could also claim JK; I'm not sure what a JK claim gains us tomorrow, it's not like that person would be confirmed town. I kind of agree that the Mason should claim, but I guess they want to save that until they are in danger of being lynched (that's the only reason I could see for them not claiming yesterday); I just hope they claim before LYLO because at LYLO the mason claim is useless unless it was breadcrumbed by Austin before he died. | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 17:14 GMT
#1599
post more guyz!!!!! | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 21:32 GMT
#1683
On July 21 2012 06:27 Risen wrote: Show nested quote + On July 21 2012 06:25 sciberbia wrote: @risen I thought about that, but there is no way in hell scum is gonna let you get that check off. You were 100% getting either killed or RB'd Makes sense. Also, what could possibly posses anyone to say "maybe he's just trying to get the last scum to not kill him" DURING THE NIGHT. Wtf... Don't give scum ideas like that even though I was probably getting shot regardless I wanted scum to shoot you because you weren't really helping town and all the wifom was really confusing things that's why I posted that | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 21:33 GMT
#1689
it means I actually caught scum with a big case instead of just with a vig shot! although i still couldn't persuade people to vote for him... but I didn't really have that much time to devote to badgering people | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 20 2012 23:29 GMT
#1793
now i just need to learn to get people to pay attention to me.... | ||
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
July 26 2012 08:01 GMT
#1841
I thought I did a decent job of being townie after the first day - even before the cop claim it didn't seem like anyone was seriously proposing me as "scum" at the end of D2/start of D3. I know that a large part of what this town lacked was leadership and motivation, and I didn't try to step in; I felt kind of blockaded on that front by the fact that other people were posting so much more than me, and that I couldn't really post any more than I did due to the fact that I can't reliably find time to post from work, and am usually tired as fuck when I get home. I'm unsure what to think about my scum hunting. I feel pretty good about my read and case on dropbear - he was off my radar until someone (Milton I think) asked offhand what I thought about him, but when I read his filter carefully I noticed the huge contradiction. I also think I was right in the way I interpreted the fact of that contradiction, and didn't just get lucky - when someone gives one big piece of advice on "how to make a good town atmosphere" at the start of the game, and then doesn't follow it, it either means "they didn't believe their own advice and just posted it for something to say so they could look like they're interacting with the thread," or it means "they don't care about creating a good town atmosphere." Either way, they're probably scum. On the other hand, I didn't continue to push that case and make a strong attempt to get dropbear lynched that same day. This was for three reasons - the less important one was that I didn't have time to post enough to really push a town with Gonzaw in it. The second reason was, I wasn't as confident in that case as I should have been because in past games when I was correct about identifying scum, it was usually because of overall impressions of their play (for example, I figured out Mattchew was scum in Holy Roman mafia because "he was posting a lot and aggressively but wasn't actually doing anything that would help town," or I figured out Forumite in Wheel of Fortune mafia because "other than Ace (who I already was pretty sure was scum) he was one of the most veteran players left but he wasn't doing anything to lead town out of the directionless morass Ace had maneuvered it into." Both of those are more impressions or generalized interpretations of their filters rather than large cases which make several points and connections between specific posts and the overall theme - I think the last time I had a correct "big case" was also in Wheel of Fortune, where I tried to make the case against Ace that both his overall play and some of his specific posts corresponded to different elements of his "ideal scum play" from guides and past comments he had written. On the other hand, the list of incorrect "big cases" I've made is much longer - eg, against Mattchew in TL LV, against Zealos in MTG mafia, and more I'm sure. I think it's good to be aware of my limitations but the fact that I've made so many incorrect cases in the past has led me to judge the cases I make by how people react to them, and I need to figure out a way to decide how confident I should be in my own cases. The third reason that I didn't push really hard to get dropbear lynched right away was that I recognized that sciberbia had a good case against Talismania. I think that being able to evaluate other people's cases as town is also an important skill and that I did a pretty good job here; ofc all the credit goes to Sciberbia for making that case in the first place. So other than dropbear, however, I had a huge failing in my bad read on Mattchew. I had "gut-read" him correctly in like three games in a row where he was scum, plus I had a scum gut-read on him in LV which was the only game we were both town; so I thought that "if usually I think he's scum when he's scum, and scum when he's town, then if I think he's town he must be extra town." Bayesian statistics supports that interpretation, but maybe I should treat town gut-reads different from scum gut-reads. So overall I would rate my scum-hunting "better than I have done in the past but still unsatisfactory." Needed to push my scum read better (gets to the leadership point) and there's also the Mattchew thing. | ||
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