EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX
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BassInSpace
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BassInSpace
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Also, Mackin seems to have completely dropped off with no significant contributions whatsoever, and we KNOW he was around during most of the discussion during this first 24 hours. Not too sure about the other lurkers yet obviously, but I know JieXian and I will have similar post timing (see NMM XVIII) because we’re only 2 hours apart. | ||
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BassInSpace
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On July 05 2012 08:38 TMG26 wrote: It's a 13 player game, and only 3 mobsters, so there is still a room for a litle mistake on day1 Megafluff, and downplaying the importance of day 1 reads With a random vote on day 1 the probability of hitting scum is low, but missing wont be that dangerous, the question that i want to make is: With this low ratio of scum, does the nolynch becomes more or less viable? I'm still a newbie in mafia games, thats one of the reasons of asking this questing trying to look helpless And sorry about my bad english, i'm not a native speaker more helplessness About what being happening here.. Lazer was not clear on what he said, Hopeless stated that, and yourHarry immidiatly voted Hopeless for that So, in my opinion if we want to catch the scum we have to confront them, so i Hopeless did the right thing...But so did yourHarry, what i find funny was JingleHell jumping in to declare FoS on yourHarry In my opinion Hopeless and yourHarry did almost same same thing Note the language - "in my opinion" as opposed to saying it outright. Overly diplomatic and indecisive My main suspects right now fall to yourHarry and JingleHell, because your acusations seammed more like a counter acusation after a "scum teammate" being acused But is all still too light, a lot of people still havent spoken Despite stating two suspects, immediately reverts to indecision The first line which you call "megafluff" is just that: one line. If the majority of his post was like this then calling it megafluff is warranted, but he moves straight onto the game afterwards. I also don't think that him stressing that English is not his first language is scummy; it's a legitimate concern in a game that is based entirely on how you express yourself in text, he obviously doesn't want to misrepresent himself. I don't think we should hold these things against him. However... What we should be concerned about is the post already quoted above, and this one: + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:02 TMG26 wrote: Thanks for the welcome A: We cant know for sure what you are trying to do, a statment like "i'm not trying to mislynch" is worth notting... scum wont say they are trying to mislynch B: Well, there no eveindence that he wanted to start a bandwagon, there was only a acusation of lazer's contradiction, BUT you told us what you tought about it... thats your opinion, so its recorded now What i believe he condemns you most is for the "early" vote... And then you came with the odds not being bad..................... Are basically summarising what has happened, and add very little in terms of original content. There is also this line which you missed hapahauli: With a random vote on day 1 the probability of hitting scum is low, but missing wont be that dangerous, the question that i want to make is: With this low ratio of scum, does the nolynch becomes more or less viable? Missing mafia and hitting town is not dangerous? TMG, I'd also like an explanation of this post: On July 05 2012 10:49 TMG26 wrote: Even if it is Plurality Lynch, there's still 40 hours left And its again funny to see that Hopeless jumped on your defence... After you had already voted harry after harry voted hopeless In my mind, you and harry are the prime suspects..but only a few hours have passed, and i dont want to jump into bad conclusions I don't quite understand. So you think that hopeless and jingle are mafia because hopeless defended jingle, but jingle and harry are actually your prime suspects? I'd just like this point clarified. All in all, TMG is my strongest read so far. Should he start posting more original content and adequately address the concerns I have raised with him in this post, I am willing to let him off the hook. There are after all 4 people who either haven't posted at all, or stopped posting when the discussion turned serious, and 1 person who has asked for a replacement. | ||
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BassInSpace
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 21:09 Lazermonkey wrote: Some good analysis there Hapa. Although I can't really contribute anything on Mackin as his filter is just that long. I only find the first post of him to be intresting tho. I don't agree with my post be contradictory which I have already said a dozen of times. Yes, I did use bad wording but that's about it. Also look at the timing. Basically echoing what Hope had already said at that point. The other posts from him is indeed fluff, which is at best bad town play. As for TMG I wouldn't even call him a lurker, at least not in comparison to some other players *hint*. His posting has in fact been okay given that we have only played for <24 hours. But looking at his posts he has for sure being suuuper safe with his posting. He is really afraid of calling anyone scum. Going back and forth never taking a clear stance anywhere. The prime example: So harry did the right thing. Then he is still your prime suspect Then it's all still too light, a lot of people still havent spoken. Note the massive indecisiveness. Why do you care? You are fully capable to take on stance on Harry before everyone have posted. You are testing waters here instead of taking a bold stance. Overall Mackin is kinda null for me although with the slightest scum vibes due to his first post. I consider him a lurker atm and he really needs to post more before I make a clear read. TMG on the other hand i feel is playing in a very anti-town way. I'd say he is my number 2 scumread after Jingle atm. The bolded sections highlight your contradiction. You're doing what you are accusing him of doing no? So harry did the right thing. Then he is still your prime suspect Except it's "so TMG is posting ok, then is is still playing very anti-town". | ||
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"So TMG is posting ok, then he is still playing very anti-town" | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 11:49 Hapahauli wrote: So this post is rife with contradiction and scumtells. Let's break it down. You did not claim it was a huge case. I got angry because you had a misleading case and I've made that clear multiple times. What does that second sentence even mean? That's the scummiest thing I've read so far! You posted a weak/half-assed read as your original case then you're saying you don't want it to get brushed off as a weak/half-assed read and therefore you posted it? WHAAAAT. When did I even suggest that I had 3 scum locked down? Where did that even come from? That's some suspicious shit right there. He did actually call it a huge case. And I believe he's saying that he didn't want his read to be brushed off as half assed, not that his post IS half assed (not that this really helps him). Now, on to zen man. On July 06 2012 05:44 The_Zen_Man wrote: I stated in my last post that i would post about other things too, so please let me do that now. It was only one post, which did not have that much text, so i was not over reading him . Though I am still unsure on what else to post about right now. Where is the promised contribution? He comes in after his lengthy absence, puts a FOS on Mackin (easy to do, others area already suspicious of him) with very little in the way of original content, promises to post more about other players and does not deliver. There was quite a bit to post about at that point, yet he didn't do it. Note that he also leaves after the Hopeless vs zen man debate starts, so he could've said something about that. TMG I wasn't attacking you for your English skills. + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 01:02 TMG26 wrote: So basically you guys are acusing me based on my heplessness and the lack of new content in my post... Ok, its my very first game here, and i only played mafia twice on a totally different community and on a different language, so its a litle bit natural to me to be a litle bit "scared" You may say its scummy atitude, all that i can say to defend myself is that it was a newbie atitude... well i wasnt very clear it seems.. Lets see what happenned before that post: >Harry voted Hopeless >jingle isnta voted Harry for that vote >Harry voted Jingle >Hopeless returns and gives some suport to Jingle i believe that the part that confused you was saying that harry and jingle were the prime ones, not jingle and hopeless. Well, what i was trying to say was that harry and jingle were the ones with bigger chance to be scum due to OMGUS, of course that if jingle is revealed scum Hopeless chances of being scum increases __________________________________ It seem people want me to take a stance, fine! Reading the new posts it to me that Release is trying to force a lynch on Lazer, and i see no motive for that Release main acusation is that Lazer first post is really bad, sure, it wasnt good, he wrote so much, and almost no decent content... But your main acusation is that Lazer's first post if it had really started a discussion on the subject as he intended to do we would loose tremendous amount of time discussing meangless stuff, and I ask you, how could we loose that much time discussing why VT shouldnt fake claim? Its a little obious what lazer said, so it wouldnt wast us as much time as you want us to believe I dont see the point of the sex toys discussion not being rehashed, Lazer did not tried to rehash what he pointed out in the first post, and it seems like you are saying that the sex toys discussion was positive Basically, i agree that Lazeer first post was bad, but it wasnt the work of the scum Devil that you want us to believe, it seems to me that you are trying really hard to see Lazer lynched at all costs when there werent another topic going on that you didnt pay atition FoS Release My points against you were that you did not add any of your own original ideas in your post. The post quoted above still does not provide anything original. You also didn't explain this line of yours to me: With a random vote on day 1 the probability of hitting scum is low, but missing wont be that dangerous As for this part, you're saying that you think Jingle and Harry are scum because they use OMGUS cases against each other? >Harry voted Hopeless >jingle isnta voted Harry for that vote >Harry voted Jingle >Hopeless returns and gives some suport to Jingle i believe that the part that confused you was saying that harry and jingle were the prime ones, not jingle and hopeless. Well, what i was trying to say was that harry and jingle were the ones with bigger chance to be scum due to OMGUS, of course that if jingle is revealed scum Hopeless chances of being scum increases However, the points raised by hapahauli combined with the meta analysis of hopeless is going to mean that I put my vote on him for now, rather than zen man or TGM. I say "for now" because I'll probably be asleep when (if) he posts his defense against the formal case, and I'd like to actually read it before deciding to leave the vote on him. I have a birthday to attend later, so I'll be gone till much later in the night. ##Vote Hopeless1der | ||
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BassInSpace
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"Note that he also leaves after the Hopeless vs zen man debate starts, so he could've said something about that" Should of course read "Note that he also leaves after the Hopeless vs Hapahauli debate starts, so he could've said something about that" | ||
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Also FYI Lazer, Jingle was mafia in NMM XVIII, not town. | ||
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I assume you are actually talking about Hopeless, since he looks to be the most likely lynch at this point. If you think this is a mislynch, can you please explain why? If you are town you should be trying your hardest to prevent a mislynch, rather than chastising everyone else for pursuing their current cases. | ||
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On July 07 2012 10:31 JingleHell wrote: It's better to do it at night, since he can't know if we have a medic/roleblocker of some kind. He's already a potential target, and if he ends up dead, he's left behind his cases. We do know there's a medic, it's an open set up. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 05:48 Mackin wrote: Hey guys, I've only caught up on what I've missed, but I want to provide some defense for myself from some FoS I've been getting. I feel it's a little unfair, but I'll explain myself each time someone has called me out. Ok, so yeah dropped off but not exactly available 24/7 so it's not really that strange - just different time zones / bed times is all. I agree I haven't contributed too much, but call me out on anything I say and I'll justify it. Ok Lazer, I'm ready to contribute - I'll be pretty active for a good while if I have anything to add  As I said before, don't jump to point the FoS on me just because I have different sleeping times than others. I see the post isn't exactly contradictory now but it still is worded badly, and I think I was one of two who misinterpreted what he was saying about roleclaiming. // I would agree with you on that point except for the fact that if you read the thread you would realise I wasn't the only one trying to get people talking by saying stuff about their names. If anything I've been pro-town by trying to get people to post which I think worked in some small part, because now it's clearer to see people's stance on each other since they have actually been posting. More posts in thread = more informed decisions - absolutely true in Mafia. Also for Hapahauli, you're using words like "huge red flag" and "very anti town" when my motive was simply to get the ball rolling in this game. I feel this is very harsh for how little I've posted, but hopefully I'll have something to add when I re-read everyone's posts. Back to JieXian: Focus on me all you want, I have nothing but valid reasons for posting what I have so far, call me out if you want an explanation. Hmm, I know you say I haven't posted anything of worth, but I disagree. As I have stated above, that in my eyes, it's not so much as the content I had posted but the post itself to get people talking is the main reason for my post. Anyway, the way I see it, I haven't exactly "bandwagoned" I just agree putting pressure on players earlier on as it helps to get them talking. Anyway, I'm gonna look into everyone's post again and post my thoughts on some of the other players... Inflates the contributions he's made to the thread. At that point, he hadn't promoted any discussion, all he did was make a few people talk about how scummy he is. Next: + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 07:15 Mackin wrote: I'm not exactly sure of what to think yet. Nobody has clearly made any big bold statements but whoever the Mafia are, they sure are trying their best to confuse the shit out of me. I can see why people say Mafia is more rewarding the more time you spend looking at it, it is really difficult to make an informed decision when half of the people are lying to you Release seems like he's on the town's side, as does Hapa, Zen and JieXian, who mostly has the same motive to get people talking as me. Many people have already given credible reasons for suspicion of others, including suspicion aimed at myself but I can see pretty much everyone isn't doing too bad at acting townie. False, at that point release and lazer were already starting to go at each other (although maybe this doesn't fit his definition of bold, so it's arguable), but Hapa was already attacking Hopeless, and had even dropped his vote on him already. He's being non-committal. He also gives the excuse that he is confused by everyone, possibly as a cover for his infrequent and generally content light posting, although I admit this may be digging a little too hard. And then we have this post: + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 08:42 Mackin wrote: @Hapa: Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. Case vs. TMG26: Unless his English is really bad, I can see some basis for thinking he isn't exactly on townie side. He may be trying to be really diplomatic for the purposes of going through to the next day, but then again mafia will try to act diplomatic while pushing accusations at the same time like he did in that first quoted post. It's hard to know whats going on in that first post, because his English really isn't great so I'm undecided. I think the indecision may be out of fear of being lynched on day1 townie, but it's hard to know whether the indecision is because he isn't sure and doesn't want to accuse someone innocent or because he has a reason to be indecisive... I don't understand what he's trying to achieve. It does seem odd/slightly scummy but still undecided. Bass said: I don't quite understand. So you think that hopeless and jingle are mafia because hopeless defended jingle, but jingle and harry are actually your prime suspects? I'd just like this point clarified. All in all, TMG is my strongest read so far. I think that's a good point actually. why would harry be one of TMG's prime suspects if hopeless had defended jingle (if he is assuming jingle to be scummy?) Onto the case against Release: I think TMG's case against Release isn't so strong - anyone putting out an early FoS isn't that serious in D1 early stages as it keeps the discussion going and there is no strong points in the post you (hapa) have linked, whereas Evul brings up a better worded, but still annoyingly confusing case against him. I can see why he calls out certain things Release has said, but nothing said actually sounds too scummy to me, but I know I could easily be missing something. Anyway, I'm getting really tired, damn GMT time so I might have to goto bed soon Again, claiming that he doesn't know what to think/is confused, thereby not taking a stance on either hopeless or TMG. And then, out of nowhere, this: [B]On July 07 2012 04:04 Mackin wrote: ##Vote YourHarry No explanation before or after. Not even a post. At that point it was 3 votes a piece for Hopeless and Lazer. I'm thinking this is a throwaway vote on someone who is highly unlikely to be lynched; again, being very non-committal. | ||
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BassInSpace
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"Inflates the contributions he's made to the thread. At that point, he hadn't promoted any discussion, all he did was make a few people talk about how scummy he is" Poor choice of words, should be "Inflates the contributions he's made to the thread. At that point, he hadn't promoted any discussion, all he did was make a few people talk about how suspicious he is" The above post is what I noticed on my read through when I spotted that vote on YourHarry, I will be taking more time to look at what's happening with Lazer and Jingle before posting my thoughts, as it's quite a bit to digest. | ||
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As it stands, things are obviously looking bad for you Jingle. If you are town, I think you could've avoided a lot of this had you simply not posted the way you have to belittle others. You may be town and know it, but sticking to your cases and reads and refusing to post your thoughts on other people's cases doesn't help in convincing us that you're town (as happened with your refusal to properly address Hapa's case against Hopeless, instead choosing to rely solely on your meta analysis of Hopeless in a game where he hadn't even flipped yet). Though I agree in general with Hapa's case against you (except for a few points, such as his use of you saying you have "feelings" and vibes" about Hopeless. This is just semantics, "feeling" and "vibe" can just as easily be replaced with "I think/don't think he's scummy"), I'm ready and willing to hear what you have to say. I must say though, this is a strong point against you: On July 07 2012 04:41 JingleHell wrote: Saying you're wrong and saying we're unconvinced are two entirely different things. Why the excessive defense of Lazer, exactly? You call it a bandwagon, even though it seems to be multiple people who have decided that he's at best unintentionally divisive, and at worst scum. Either way, if he gets lynched, he won't be missed, as he's not going to help the town win in either case. If you feel that Lazer's posting is that bad, just ignore it. Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one more person mafia will have to shoot and one more town vote. Give us a little credit, we can spot when a good case is being made and when there isn't a very good case. As you can see, no one has jumped on any of Lazer's reads yet. YourHarry, I am not a fan of you focusing so heavily on power roles. There is a reason (and correct me if I'm wrong post game hosts) that the hosts made this a completely open set up with godfather and miller: so that we focus on actually making good reads and cases, not waiting for a DT to get a positive check for mafia. I also think that your logic in giving rabbitz, TMG and Makin town reads is flawed. My case against Mackin already speaks for itself, but rabbitz's last minute vote switch occurred when Hopeless was already set to lynch. Even if he hadn't switched, Hopeless would still have been lynched because he hit 5 votes first. His vote changed nothing. You could even argue that it was an attempt at being on the correct lynch to grab townie cred if you wanted to. | ||
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BassInSpace
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"Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one more person mafia will have to shoot and one more town vote" is confusing, should read "Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one less person mafia will have to shoot and one less town vote if he is town" | ||
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Evul, JieXian is saying that the logical choice for you if you are scum and Lazer is town was to vote for Hopeless because if you hadn't and Lazer flipped green, you would have looked quite scummy, and not only would Hopeless have had a high chance of being lynched the next day anyway, you would also be compromised and under heavy scrutiny. | ||
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Evul, JieXian is saying that the logical choice for you if you are scum and Lazer is town was to vote for Hopeless because if you had voted for Lazer and he flipped green, you would have looked quite scummy for protecting Hopeless, and not only would Hopeless have had a high chance of being lynched the next day anyway, you would also be compromised and under heavy scrutiny. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 07 2012 13:43 BassInSpace wrote: I'm still not liking Mackin's posts. Here's why: + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 05:48 Mackin wrote: Hey guys, I've only caught up on what I've missed, but I want to provide some defense for myself from some FoS I've been getting. I feel it's a little unfair, but I'll explain myself each time someone has called me out. Ok, so yeah dropped off but not exactly available 24/7 so it's not really that strange - just different time zones / bed times is all. I agree I haven't contributed too much, but call me out on anything I say and I'll justify it. Ok Lazer, I'm ready to contribute - I'll be pretty active for a good while if I have anything to add As I said before, don't jump to point the FoS on me just because I have different sleeping times than others. I see the post isn't exactly contradictory now but it still is worded badly, and I think I was one of two who misinterpreted what he was saying about roleclaiming. // I would agree with you on that point except for the fact that if you read the thread you would realise I wasn't the only one trying to get people talking by saying stuff about their names. If anything I've been pro-town by trying to get people to post which I think worked in some small part, because now it's clearer to see people's stance on each other since they have actually been posting. More posts in thread = more informed decisions - absolutely true in Mafia. Also for Hapahauli, you're using words like "huge red flag" and "very anti town" when my motive was simply to get the ball rolling in this game. I feel this is very harsh for how little I've posted, but hopefully I'll have something to add when I re-read everyone's posts. Back to JieXian: Focus on me all you want, I have nothing but valid reasons for posting what I have so far, call me out if you want an explanation. Hmm, I know you say I haven't posted anything of worth, but I disagree. As I have stated above, that in my eyes, it's not so much as the content I had posted but the post itself to get people talking is the main reason for my post. Anyway, the way I see it, I haven't exactly "bandwagoned" I just agree putting pressure on players earlier on as it helps to get them talking. Anyway, I'm gonna look into everyone's post again and post my thoughts on some of the other players... Inflates the contributions he's made to the thread. At that point, he hadn't promoted any discussion, all he did was make a few people talk about how scummy he is. Next: + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 07:15 Mackin wrote: I'm not exactly sure of what to think yet. Nobody has clearly made any big bold statements but whoever the Mafia are, they sure are trying their best to confuse the shit out of me. I can see why people say Mafia is more rewarding the more time you spend looking at it, it is really difficult to make an informed decision when half of the people are lying to you Release seems like he's on the town's side, as does Hapa, Zen and JieXian, who mostly has the same motive to get people talking as me. Many people have already given credible reasons for suspicion of others, including suspicion aimed at myself but I can see pretty much everyone isn't doing too bad at acting townie. False, at that point release and lazer were already starting to go at each other (although maybe this doesn't fit his definition of bold, so it's arguable), but Hapa was already attacking Hopeless, and had even dropped his vote on him already. He's being non-committal. He also gives the excuse that he is confused by everyone, possibly as a cover for his infrequent and generally content light posting, although I admit this may be digging a little too hard. And then we have this post: + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 08:42 Mackin wrote: @Hapa: Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. Case vs. TMG26: Unless his English is really bad, I can see some basis for thinking he isn't exactly on townie side. He may be trying to be really diplomatic for the purposes of going through to the next day, but then again mafia will try to act diplomatic while pushing accusations at the same time like he did in that first quoted post. It's hard to know whats going on in that first post, because his English really isn't great so I'm undecided. I think the indecision may be out of fear of being lynched on day1 townie, but it's hard to know whether the indecision is because he isn't sure and doesn't want to accuse someone innocent or because he has a reason to be indecisive... I don't understand what he's trying to achieve. It does seem odd/slightly scummy but still undecided. Bass said: I don't quite understand. So you think that hopeless and jingle are mafia because hopeless defended jingle, but jingle and harry are actually your prime suspects? I'd just like this point clarified. All in all, TMG is my strongest read so far. I think that's a good point actually. why would harry be one of TMG's prime suspects if hopeless had defended jingle (if he is assuming jingle to be scummy?) Onto the case against Release: I think TMG's case against Release isn't so strong - anyone putting out an early FoS isn't that serious in D1 early stages as it keeps the discussion going and there is no strong points in the post you (hapa) have linked, whereas Evul brings up a better worded, but still annoyingly confusing case against him. I can see why he calls out certain things Release has said, but nothing said actually sounds too scummy to me, but I know I could easily be missing something. Anyway, I'm getting really tired, damn GMT time so I might have to goto bed soon Again, claiming that he doesn't know what to think/is confused, thereby not taking a stance on either hopeless or TMG. And then, out of nowhere, this: No explanation before or after. Not even a post. At that point it was 3 votes a piece for Hopeless and Lazer. I'm thinking this is a throwaway vote on someone who is highly unlikely to be lynched; again, being very non-committal. It will be interesting to see how zen man responds now, since he promised a proper post on Lazer on day 2. | ||
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If anything made him look fishy to me, it's his willingness to jump on Lazer (again) based on what is obviously a typo (to put it in Release's own words against Lazer awhile ago, "grasping at straws"), and the vote switch to Jingle without much explanation at all. The post he made listing detective claims could also have been an attempt at making a useful post without actually being all that useful, but this could be stretching it too far. | ||
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On July 08 2012 14:31 JieXian wrote: About Mackin, I've a feeling that he's just a lazy townie. His vote on YourHarry was probably because he jumped right to the last page and read my argument with Harry and just voted. That is just a guess though, we'll have to wait to see if he's going to make his actions clear when he gets back. I'm inclined to lean towards Lazer rather than Zen Man at the moment, at least until Zen Man comes back with the promised case for his vote against Lazer. Release, I was talking about your vote change TO Jingle, here: On July 08 2012 10:26 Release wrote: ##unvote ##vote: jinglehell After having said you didn't feel that Jingle was scum: On July 07 2012 15:19 Release wrote: Well i read the Jingle case and i can't disagree with it. But it makes me uncomfortable to feel that he is scum, because then YourHarry would be the other scum (those two had a little OMGUS battle and then suddenly reconciled, great way to clutter the thread), leaving no place for Lazer to be scum, which i still think is true. And mackin... | ||
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"I'm inclined to lean towards Lazer rather than Zen Man at the moment, at least until Zen Man comes back with the promised case for his vote against Lazer" "I'm inclined to lean town towards Lazer rather than Zen Man at the moment, at least until Zen Man comes back with the promised case for his vote against Lazer" | ||
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You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 10:02 Mackin wrote: Ok guys so I know I stepped out of the loop for quite a while, but I'm gonna step in now before bed and give my opinions on some people before we get back into day. Evul has his case/claim now for being pro-town with his vote being important on the day 1 lynching. I don't see him as too suspicious so far. Zen_man I feel is pro town. Either that or he's good mafia. Don't know why he has such a strong hate against Lazer but I'm gonna look into Lazer in some more detail later. Lazer: I don't see anything from his posts that are particularly mafia so far. I really don't understand where people got off accusing him. I would like someone to point out the traits people see in him as mafia. Release: Literally no idea, from what he has posted I didn't learn much except for the fact he near toppled over back at end of D1 voting. It was so so good Hopeless was mafia because it said something about Release's read. YourHarry: My vote on him probably gave a lot of people a WTF type feeling. I just had some feeling that he was scum but since voting I'm not so sure. Hapa: Is being unbelievably good townie. I find it funny though because I've came up with some crazy theories on how he could be the Godfather who wanted to bus one of his men early to add confidence to his name, then acts and "is" pro town until the end where you discover he's really been the mastermind behind it all. I severely doubt this is the case though because he literally has provided really really good information and reads on each person, especially on Hopeless. It's easy to say now, but had I seen Hapa's post on why Hopeless had to go I would've switched votes... though I was unavailable at the time (which shouldn't be an issue anymore) Jingle: Scummy or not? Recently, if you look Jingle gets annoyingly defensive and suspicious every time he posted in response to grilling from Hapa. This could be for either two things - straight up scum or else genuine townie getting so annoyed. I don't know which way to take this but I'll say he's not on my townie list Bass: From what he has posted so far, I'm thinking he's town but meeeh... TMG: Meeh - I'll do one later Jie: Also do one later, but slightest scum vibes. It pretty much tells us nothing about your reads on who is mafia. It just tells us who you "feel" is town, and who you're unsure of. You are still a candidate for mafia for me at the very least. I'l also be taking you up on your offer now to ask you questions. What do you think of the current cases? Who do you actually think could be mafia? Now YourHarry, I don't like how you're playing with the numbers here and going through multiple scenarios. Randomly lynching can still lose us the game. It should be played out as it normally would: finding scummy behaviour and voting for it. Random lynching would just be lazy. JieXian is right, even if the odds may seem favourable, it's still gambling. There was no need to tell him to shut up though... | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 18:40 Mackin wrote: Hey guys, I'm claiming Vanilla Townie. I know I'm on a couple of people's suspicions list, but as JieXian said: He's right here. I was very short on time IRL and knew I had to get a vote down. I said early I was unavailable at the time but whatever. And whoever wants to ask me any questions, feel free. I have nothing to hide. Also glad to see Jingle cleared as if you check my earlier posts, I can't see anything I've said to overly mislead anyone. If you look at one of my larger blocks of text: I totally made a logical reason for why he posted talking about Release. I said that if he was scum, he was probably trying to distract from the case against him, and that proved correct no? In my opinion, I can't see any real just case against me, though feel free to bring it people. That doesn't count. Yes, it's an analysis. But let's have a closer look at the bolded sections. You have the benefit of hindsight now in saying that you were right about Hopeless. At the time of making that post, you weren't sure about anything. You didn't even commit to anything. If Hopeless had flipped green, you could just argue and say "oh, look I was right, he really WAS just testing the waters". | ||
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BassInSpace
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The above post is in reply to Mackin's latest post here: + Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 21:07 Mackin wrote: Well Bass, if I was playing mafia, I wouldn't mind being bussed if it meant a win - I understand you don't get to analyze and post as much but a win is a win regardless. Maybe it is just brilliant strategy as everyone's convinced on Hapa's pro-town status? If it did turn out Hapa was mafia it would be hilarious, because I can't see anyone wanting to lynch him the rest of the game. Fairly unlikely, but still possible. I'm wondering what happens if its decided to lynch Zen/Release/me and we all flip green. I'm fairly sure the mafia would be sitting happy and in great shape for actually winning with the odds against (s)he... Anyway I provided some defense earlier showing some pro-townie stuff I've said and some people have basically ignored it. Please read and comment appropriately. | ||
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Valid points against me, but could be playing smart mafia trying to lynch the player with some weaknesses in play (aka me). If I get lynched please be careful of him as I'm undecided of why he's pushing me so hard. I really have nothing to hide so if I'm continually pushed I will be suspicious. I'm sorry if you feel that I'm pushing you hard, but as you just said yourself, there are valid points against you. You never properly addressed the original case against you, and you're not the only player who copped flack for that; Zen man is too. I wanted you to make your position clear so that we don't have a wildcard in a player like you if the game ever goes late and we can't actually afford a mislynch. We got completely screwed over by a wildcard in my last game because we ignored him for too long. You're not playing nearly as bad as he was, but as you can see over the last few posts, there are people who are still suspicous of you. It's good that you have kicked up the activity and did actually name players who you consider scummy this time. You needn't worry about a case against you at this time, however. I think a Zen man lynch is more likely at this point. | ||
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"You needn't worry about a case against you at this time" "You needn't worry about a lynch against you at this time" | ||
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##Vote The_Zen_Man Subject to change should he actually post something decent by the time I'm around again of course. | ||
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At this point of the game, it seems like everyone aside from Jingle, JieXian, Zen Man and Evulrabbitz are up for scrutiny. I've already given my thoughts on Mackin, and I'll be going through other filters throughout the night/day. | ||
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And when I attempted to tell the power roles to claim one at a time, again no one else had brought up the idea. And sure, you can again say that it is common practice and common sense to avoid claiming until required to. Yet, these kind of reasoning can be applied to dismiss almost any pro-town actions. This is the problem with your current play, and why people may have problems with your defense. "Pro-town actions" includes hunting for mafia, which you haven't been doing. This has already been mentioned but I'd just like to stress that telling the medic not to claim does not count as pro town. It's obvious that the medic shouldn't claim; they can't give us information on town players, so we have no reason to get them to claim to prove their credibility. In fact, an attitude like yours, where you just take a town victory for granted without trying to actually hunt scum, creates the optimal environment for you if you are mafia. You wouldn't need to worry about being found out if no one's actively looking for you, and you would only need to worry about getting lucky with your roleblock/shot and dodging a DT check or track. Also, you were not the first to ask whoever got roleblocked to come forward with that information. Release was, on page 26: On July 08 2012 10:39 Release wrote: anyone got roleblocked, claim now. is it possible that we have more than 1 DT/Medic/miller/tracker? | ||
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Also: On July 11 2012 10:37 Evulrabbitz wrote: Oh man I asked that question like a jackass. It should have been vanilla townie or miller. Anyway, we got the answer. Building a case against BassInSpace is pointless. It will all come down to WIFOM. There is probably nothing that can stop us from lynching him. He will die either today or tomorrow. If it's because he is scum or he is very unlucky, that is what we are about to find out. Not lynching him now would be stupid. So what you are basically saying is, there is not enough evidence to actually lynch me other than WIFOM? I would then argue that if you can't find evidence against me, you should probably look for scummy behaviour somewhere else, since I'm still a town vote that you will lose should you lynch me. I am obviously going to side with Hapa here; whenever you choose to lynch me, you have a 50% chance of lynching mafia. However, by actually keeping me alive and looking for actual scummy behaviour from others, you are only increasing your chances of winning. I'm not gonna do the math, since others have already done it for me. As for who I think could me mafia? Mackin has been lurking. He could be taking everyone else's complacency as an excuse to not do anything. He is eager for my lynch simply because I've been "hinting" to lynch him. However, can anyone say that my pressure on Mackin was not justified (again, he himself admitted I had valid points against him)? I was not the only one who was suspicious of him, and I had to poke him a few times before he would finally clarify his position, since it seemed everyone else was focusing on other players while he was suspected but never prodded. The previous points made about YourHarry still stand (at least until he actually starts scum hunting again). His eagerness to jump on my lynch without considering alternatives also isn't a point in his favour. | ||
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BassInSpace
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I am obviously going to side with Hapa here; whenever you choose to lynch me, you have a 50% chance of lynching mafia. However, by actually keeping me alive and looking for actual scummy behaviour from others, you are only increasing your chances of winning. I take it you disagree with what I said above and still want to lynch me? What I am "basically saying" is that any case against you and any case for you will come down to WIFOM. There is no way to prove that you are townie without saying "He might be acting to seem townie" just as there is no way to prove you are scum. The whole point of mafia is to use logic to find scum. According to your logic then all of mafia is WIFOM. If you think the 50% chance of me flipping mafia when you don't even have anything against me other than a potential false positive is worth the risk, I'm not sure how I can change your mind. Lynch me and you will have given the mafia another day to live, and lost a town vote. | ||
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That quote you have from me is also taken out of context. At the time, we were discussing your vote being the decider (ie late) and that is why you couldn't be cleared just for voting Hopeless. My vote was early. However, it's a moot point now: everyone who voted Lazer is either dead or confirmed town. | ||
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I said in this post: On July 07 2012 00:43 BassInSpace wrote: But as it stands now, it comes down to your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting in this actual thread. I value finding scummy posting as a scum hunting tool far more than I value meta. You don't think the points brought up by Hapahauli paint Hopeless in a bad light? And just as an aside, I'm not saying I think you're scum. I just want to understand why you think your meta analysis (which you admit yourself is an issue because he hasn't flipped in the other game) is more valuable than actual posts in this thread. The fact that he first says that Hapa's arguments (including the meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless, but then says that the sole reason he voted for Hopeless was the outright lie, is quite confusing. That I value scummy posting more than I value meta. Does that mean I think meta is completely useless? No, I never said that. I made that point because Jingle was relying only on meta in his defense of Hopeless. This was a case of scummy posting vs meta. When I agreed with Hapa's case, it was because Hopeless was lying and dodging. The meta that Hapa used was in conjunction with the scummy posting. So again I state; I voted for Hopeless because of the lying and dodging, but the meta case against him helped a little as well. I was perfectly willing to vote him even without the meta case. This post is in response to Mackin who talks about BassInSpace's arguments against him (Mackin). BassInSpace has consistently been trying very hard to not make enemies. He has hold a case against Mackin almost the entire game and now he apologizes for pushing him. Dammit dude, show some decisiveness. You have been suspicious of him all game, yet you do not want to commit to a lynch on him. For that matter, you don't really want to lead a lynch on anyone even though you have so many suspicions. I did not apologise for pushing him. I apologised if he felt that I was being unfair/overly aggressive in my push. As for my pressuring him and then letting it go, you'll see that my main point against him was his being indecisive. When he actually had a stance on players, I eased off of him, but pretty much everyone here can see he hasn't been around lately, which is why I started posting about him again. This isn't indecision, this is updating my reads based on his behaviour. I criticised hi reads for being indecisive because they were full of "well he could be scum because of A but he might be town because of B ". This post is regarding my little "I am townie" trap which he kinda fell into. Now I said my vote was being deciding in a sense it was not for Lazer, which is to some degree true. The other who opposed this stance (can't remember who) did it because they didn't realize I could vote for Lazer and switch the vote. BassInSpace's mistake was one based on logical conclusion. He says that if Lazer had flipped green(had I chosen him), I would be very, very suspicious, even more so than the person who pushed the case. Now personally I believe that every vote is as important as the other, as in any other "election" (don't know if right word here, but still). It might just have been a late update (which is actually was ^^). If Lazer flipped green, my logical conclusion would be to target the person who lead the case against Lazer, not the one who happened to throw the last vote (which has just as much worth as the other). This is yet an attempt for him to keep as many balls juggling as possible. I'm not the only one around here who thinks that very late vote switches like that can be suspicious. Just look at the opinions of others in this game and the whole TL mafia forum. We'll just have to disagree about this point. Now Bass votes for Zen_Man until he posts his defense. So we all kinda sit around waiting. This is how everyone acted so nothing suspicious. The rest is not showing anything suspicious (the whole of page 3 on his filter) apart from maybe this post. Now he conveniently brings up his backup case against Mackin, says he was never really pressured so he had to "poke" him. Now if you found him so suspicious why didn't you lead a case against him? Your answer is always "because other were more suspicious" and you point out quite a few times. Yet you have not actively tried to lynch the more suspicious person, you have more or less agreed with everyone else while keeping slight suspicions on other people. As for Mackin, again, read what I posted earlier in this reply. I pushed him because he was being very indecisive, then he actually posted his stance, so I backed off of him. If I had continued hounding him on my original points after that point in time, I would have been guilty of tunneling him. Also, I have been lynching the more suspicious person, (started on TMG, switched to Hopeless after all the evidence against him, started on Mackin and switched to Zen Man because he seemed to refuse to defend himself properly) I can't help it if I'm active when most others are not. By the time I can come on to check the thread, a lot of my suspicions have already been posted. | ||
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On July 12 2012 18:50 Evulrabbitz wrote: If you think the same about votes, I can agree here. However this was not a voteswitch. I just did a late update. The Jingle and YourHarry discussion (in which I laid my vote) was already over a long time ago. I never said you think it is completely useless. Just you putting words in my mouth to make your defense sound better makes we want to lynch you. So this attitude is basically "I have some things that point him to scum and some to town, but I won't pressure him because if I do he might slip scum". How else can someone be overly aggresive in a push? Isn't it a good think to make see how people react to pressure? Explain to me how that would've been tunneling. You have never just had one person suspicious, in fact you have almost always had 3 (First TMG, Hopeless & Zen. Then TMG, Mackin, me and Zen. Then Zen, mackin and Release. Now YourHarry&Mackin) people being suspicious to you. I don't see how pushing your long-lived case would've been tunneling. His contradiction in the Hopeless case was that he votes on Hopeless based on Hapa's arguments and partially the meta analysis. Then he says the only thing of value is that Hopeless outright lied. Regardless, what I am trying to emphasis is that BassInSpace voting for Hopeless does not make him townie in any sense. When BassInSpace started posting against him, Hopeless had already lied, and as I mentioned, would most likely die within 3 days tops. He saw this mistake and actively started gaining townie points, which is actually something BassInSpace has done consistently. He has more actively tried to gain townie points than lynch who he thinks is suspicious. And when I talk about actively lynching, I am talking about pushing a case and adding to it. BassInSpace hasn't really done that. At all. Rather he has been trying to get on everyone's good side. My point regarding meta is that even though I'm not a fan of it, it further proved that Hopeless was mafia because it tied in with the scummy posting in this thread. Here's the actual quote from my post I am not paying much stock to the rest of Hapahauli's case (as I pointed out already) because I don't think those were enough on their own. Also, as much as I actually dislike heavy use of meta, it just adds to the 3 main points that I consider are the most damning in Hopeless's case. If Hapa's case against Hopeless was based purely or very heavily on meta, then I would not have bought it. So this attitude is basically "I have some things that point him to scum and some to town, but I won't pressure him because if I do he might slip scum". How else can someone be overly aggresive in a push? Isn't it a good think to make see how people react to pressure? What are you talking about? I did not pressure him once, I pressured him twice, and he reacted to the pressure by giving us his stance, which is what I wanted. "I won't pressure him"? I did, and he reacted. I said to further pressure him based on my points against him at the time (ie his indecisiveness) would be tunneling. He gave me his stance, pressuring him further based on indecisiveness would have been repeating myself at the time. you have almost always had 3 (First TMG, Hopeless & Zen. Then TMG, Mackin, me and Zen. Then Zen, mackin and Release. Now YourHarry&Mackin) people being suspicious to you. I don't see how pushing your long-lived case would've been tunneling. When did I ever say you were suspicious? Saying you were not confirmed town was effectively saying you were a null read. Confirmed town is not the same as suspicious. As for the rest, I am not "juggling" cases. Just because there is a major case going on, doesn't mean that other players get a free pass. This would just give mafia the chance to hide while everyone focuses on the one player, and we would lose valuable discussion time. TMG was my first suspicion before the case against Hopeless had been brought up. It was early day 1, and I found behaviour which I thought was suspicious. Others found his play suspicious as well. If I was spreading unfounded suspicions on players then I would agree, I am purposely "juggling", but I was not. I then decided Hopeless was much more suspicious and decided to vote for him after Hapa brought his points up. Zen hadn't said much at all at that point (lurking), and he hadn't posted those reads he promised. Again, suspicious play. I kept going after Zen because all he later posted was a summary, followed by absolutely nothing at all for quite awhile. Again, given this suspicious play, I believe I was justified in keeping up pressure on him. The same applies to Mackin; he had not provided us with a proper decisive view on players, so I kept going. I've been after those 2 for justified reasons. As for Release, what can I say? I felt he was a bit suspicious, but not more suspicious than Zen Man at the time, On July 08 2012 13:05 BassInSpace wrote: Regarding Release: If anything made him look fishy to me, it's his willingness to jump on Lazer (again) based on what is obviously a typo (to put it in Release's own words against Lazer awhile ago, "grasping at straws"), and the vote switch to Jingle without much explanation at all. The post he made listing detective claims could also have been an attempt at making a useful post without actually being all that useful, but this could be stretching it too far. I don't believe the tone of the post indicated that I found him all that suspicious, though you may argue it's "juggling". As for YourHarry, I did not like it at all that he had been focusing so much on blue roles and not doing any scum hunting at all. This is why I got suspicious of him originally. Again, I believe that all of my suspicions were justified. I have not been "juggling" cases/suspicions for the sake of being vague or having back up lynches. | ||
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As for the rest of your post. Townies can accidentally play scummy. You seem to base your point on that this would be false. Your defense is that you had substantial evidence. While that might be true it does not tell us you are not mafia. I honestly don't see how leading a case against a townie using substantial evidence is seen as pro-town play. The result is a mis-lynch. Now I do not claim that this makes him Mafia. I am saying to me, this does not clear him. But we don't know he is townie. Saying that town players can accidentally act scummy as a defense of said players just gives mafia the chance to hide behind this sort of cover. So I don't agree with what you are saying here. In fact, when I come to think of it. Hapa's whole case against Mackin is based on information which was available to you when you decided he has posted his stance and was fine. Feel free to prove Hapa wrong. Otherwise my point that you are actively pursuing townie point rather than actively pursuing lynch of suspicious of players. Not true. It has been awhile since he said he would post freely, as Hapa pointed out. I did not know at the time it would be this long. He has since gone back to lurking, and only posting when prompted to, as pointed out by Hapa. His most recent substantial post now is about how he won't even defend himself, and how it's easy for blue players and detective confirmed townies to get by without posting much compared to how hard it is for him. He also seems to want to lynch me purely because I pressured him earlier. If he wants me lynched he should come up with a case, or at least address some of your points against me Evul. I think he has been hiding behind the newbie card this whole game. As for Mackin's indecisiveness, yes, I let off at the time because he finally gave us his opinion on he is actually mafia. However, since then, he has not done much at all once the pressure is off. His lurking and refusal to post unless prompted (and even his most recent post effectively didn't say anything new) still makes him scummy to me. If you still think I'm juggling cases then there's nothing I can say to change your mind I suppose. WIth that, I will be voting Mackin. I think he's scum and I know I'm town, so I won't allow my lynch to go through. ##Vote: Mackin | ||
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I decided not to gamble on roleblocking one of DT or tracker and killing the other night 2 because I felt that it would be safer to guarantee a kill on the tracker and hope the DT either didn't check me, or best case scenario, checked the miller. I was banking on Evul checking YourHarry or Mackin so that town wouldn't waste time with building cases against them, or checking Hapa to absolutely confirm his town status, which some were questioning. It would've come down to me vs 1 other unconfirmed townie in the end if this had worked. On July 13 2012 10:42 Hapahauli wrote: As previously stated, I really didn't like your case against Bass, and thought it took him out of context quite a bit. Upon re-reading his filter, I think there were a lot of stronger points against him that I missed on my initial readthrough: When he bussed hopeless, he left himself open to change his mind - he said he wanted to see Hopeless's defense before he locked in his vote. Him never voting or FOSing Mackin was a really strong point that you didn't mention until I brought it up later. He hounds Mackin without ever committing to his case. I actually always leave myself open to changing my mind regardless of alignment in all the games I've played (well, only 3 I guess), since there is such a lengthy period of time between when i go to sleep and the deadline. An unfortunate situation when playing mafia on the other side of the world. I also never FOS anyone because I figure if I'm posting evidence and saying that I feel someone is suspicious, then that's already a FOS in itself. I don't actually recall seeing FOSs anywhere other than newbie games. I keep it out just so there isn't bolded text all over the place, but it's just my preference. | ||
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YourHarry I'll be honest... I didn't even bother working out the probabilities :p What I ended up doing just felt safer. | ||
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