EPT+ Show Spoiler +
bat item is best item
SSB-64 Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I would be curious about the sample size you base your conclusions from iGrok. Bold words from you  @Hiro Your idea with controlling the itemgrabbing for town sounds really good, supporting it as long as we can get some good way to distribute it. We also got our first pick -ShiaoPi | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + hopefully this is the last time we ninja each other xD | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Also regarding the split on hyrule I do not think it would be beneficial, spreading makes sure that at least some of us will get tornado damage( since it is random) also there is no benefit for spreading randomly, we will get stock changes by the next daypost and it would be much better for town if we avoid unnecessary damage -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 03 2012 01:15 ShiaoPi wrote: Thinking about the whole random damage stuff, I guess there really is no way to avoid the damage. But I would suggest all piling up in one spot, so if one gets damage all get it. It would add more transparency to the whole thing and we can easily make out if someone tries to avoid it. If you don't like that idea, I am also open to the spread I guess. With more than 1 person in each zone, at least we can confirm if somebody dodged the zone if he did not get damage when the other one did. Given toads reluctance to allow randomizer, we should probably get along with the plan iGrok laid out. At least it is a way to make item distribution more transparent. goddamn :S -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-ShiaoPi | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think everyone voiced support for the distribution of the item areas as well. So where would you like to have us? Or am I just derping hard now? -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
If someone does not follow and has a different number of stock than the rest of us, they better have a damn good reason for it | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 03 2012 04:04 Risen wrote: Also, I'm confused on this everyone go left thing for position. All of town potentially losing stock is way worse than the potential of mafia losing some stock, right? I would say that stock for mafia is more valuable as they have less in total compared to town. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
As I said though, it's all me tonight, and it's past time to post something concrete. Risen- I think he is town. His poking and prodding of iGrok kick-started a lot of discussion. He has been bold and fearless in his disagreements, when it would have been so much easier to be passive, agree with the plan (like everyone else was doing), and not be worse off for it. iGrok- Shiao thought he had some weird ideas, but didn't think scum. This was from earlier, and I don't think it had changed. I don't think he is scum. Regarding his derp: it was either intentional or unintentional. Intentionally going against his own plan when it would be so bloody obvious that he did so is plain stupid from both a town or scum perspective. It must have been unintentional. I don't think he would make such an egregious mistake as scum. Think about it, he has since day 1 grabbed town by the balls and said 'this is what we should do, and here's how you know you can trust me.' It would be extremely bold, and require a LOT of work and attention to detail to keep up the facade. If he was actually going for that play style, you can bet your ass he'd have gotten his location PM right, because he'd be hyper aware of any miss-steps. This means it was unintentional town. Over and done imo. I want to lynch either Mister Saturn or grush today. Mister Saturn- His anger at iGrok seems very weird. It is honestly not difficult to think through what iGrok did, yet Saturn is all about shooting him. Yea it sucks he hasn't posted why he carried you, but is that really a reason to shoot him? Him overblowing the mistake looks scummy to me. grush- not much to say here. I've played with him before and he doesn't post much even with only 1 game going on. He is also in LVI, and is silent there too. I want him dead, plain and simple. We will be sorry if he is there late game. Flying spaghetti monster help us if he gets any items. Some other errata.. kingdedede's openness with the Yoshi claim gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. They are right that bus-driver can be crazy destructive in town hands, which makes the claim/transparency all the more pro-town. They claim they will explain all of their switches in detail, so I'm waiting to see what comes of that. Regarding talismania, I'd like to see more from him. He's begun to hunt for scum, but has been relatively quiet. I will say I that I don't like how he relies heavily on mod motivations for role splitting. This is Toad's game and unless you are in his head you won't know how he wanted to run this. We can make some generalizations about the typical set-up, but the first tool for scum hunting is and always will be the filters. I'm keeping my eye on him. Cephiro commented on Shiao's post about the bus-driver thing. I'll leave the final word to him obviously, but I will say that we had talked about Yoshi in our hydra QT and about how damaging they can be as a town-member. We were hesitant to pick Yoshi based on this, for fear that we would get towned, and end up possibly doing more harm than good. Others may be more confident of their skill here, but I can understand his thought process given our discussion. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Also, there are two scum. Grush may be scum, I don't have any idea. I don't think anybody does. I don't want him around in the SSB version of LYLO. Depending on how talismania spends the rest of day 1, I might replace grush with him. I want to hear what Shiao has to say on him too. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I agree with you that the way he is hopping around doesn't look good. He picked you to carry earlier on in the day, claimed you were scum. Some time elapsed, then he was wanting to kill talismania and grush. Since he provides no reasoning, it's impossible to know why his mind changed, but it could be as simple as that. He got his first scum read on you, chose to carry. Somewhere in the interim he decided you weren't scum, and switched horses. He can't uncarry you until night 1. His derp looks town to me. I'm not shy in saying it. That's why at this point I'm assuming he just changed his mind on you, and in his hubris didn't think he had to explain. He promises that he will next day, and when he does I'll adjust accordingly. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:15 iGrok wrote: shoot me if you want, it was a derp I think top left as the first zone and so I put myself there. You should probably be able to guess why i picked you, you're scum. On the bright side of this derp, scum's at 2 stock lol. Posted at 07:15. Like I said, some time elapses, before he switches to talismania. On July 03 2012 07:44 iGrok wrote: I can't tell my reasoning on saturn until tomorrow. Top picks for lynch are ##Vote: Talisman Just under a half hour. It doesn't take a lot of time to change a mind. He speaks about Saturn in the interim, but everything he says easily fits to the idea that he has changed his mind. He wants to explain why he carried him when he did. He said before that he had a feeling, which can reference when he chose to carry Saturn as well. Since he voted talismania he hasn't said saturn is scum as far as I can see. The explanation is going to be important. I think it's possible he changed his mind on the fly, but I can also see how frenetic it looks, like chaffing under the pressure. But back to the derp.. I've made wrong reads before, and I may be wrong here, but I maintain that it looks strongly town. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Anyway, I'm off for the night. I'm dead now in LVI so I'll have a lot more time for this game. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
HE IS DEFENDING iGROK!!!!! LYNCH HIM!!!! Seriously, if you think iGrok is scum why don't you try to flip him? solstice shared his read on iGrok as a townie who messed up, while I would consider him a nulltell from his reactions after the item/stage events concluded. I would be in favor of waiting and seeing the explanation he promised. Now what of this read makes us scummy? If you think igrok is scum lynch him... Regarding my choice of lynchtarget I would say grush deserves it. I know that he is always playing lurky until called out, so the earlier we pressure him, the earlier we can get some stuff to work on. Until now he has been terribly unhelpful. ##Vote: grush57 -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I don't understand how you can think iGrok is scum and yet aren't pushing him more. I explained a scenario where his actions could be interpreted as town, but you didn't comment on it. I also explained pretty cleary (or so I thought) why I lent this explanation any creedence. His mistake came off as town to me. I also said my view can change, pending his explanation of what happened. How is this scummy to you? Saying someone I read as town is doing some scummy looking things is not a contradiction. I've been saying all along that because of the strength of the initial read on him, he has some leash to explain the scummy things he is doing. In my view it was logical to read iGrok's mistake as town, so I naturally suspected you because you reacted severely to it. To me it looked like you were aggressively seizing the moment to take some stock off a townie, using his mistake as the catalyst. You may not agree with that opinion, but it doesn't make me scum. As far as you are concerned, I think you are genuinely angry at the goings on. I'm trying now to rationalize that anger with what I see in your filter. Need Shiao's input on it as well. Right now, we are both in agreement on grush or talismania as the lynch for today. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
told us to kill grush and now just said saturn is scum. I'm getting pretty tired of your garbage to be honest. You are just as bad as grush. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
iGrok why are you doing this? Because it's Tuesday, and I'm wearing purple socks. Also cats. How is this difficult to follow? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Looks like talis is going to eat the lynch today. I am okay with it. He has been in the same category as grush to me (albeit not that lurky) and solstice has repeatedly voiced his concern on him so: ##unvote ##Vote: Talismania This should hopefully secure the lynch on him. Now onto reevaluating people: iGrok: Has been largely a nulltell for me a while, while solstice did tend townie on him. We would tend to read him as scummy now. His behaviour after the item/stage events has been largely disruptive. And taking a closer look at his filter, yields some interesting aspects: -Pegging people as scum with close to zero reasononing -Prodding people about roles -The decision to carry Saturn: This has been really controversial. It was clear that Saturn was Samus and after reading through Saturn's filter in the timeframe in which iGrok has claimed to made his decision I found nothing in regards of Scummy behaviour, which would have led to the decision iGrok took. -when asked about reads, he is vague or sheeping other people's opinions. Always referring to the future if asked about his reads. -Also wtf is this? On July 04 2012 05:13 iGrok wrote: Oh wait, I forgot that this is the only way people can follow my thoughts: 492764207374696c6c20726174686572206c796e63682067727573682e2049747320676f696e6720746f20626520696d706f737369626c6520746f2067657420616e7920696e666f726d6174696f6e206f7574206f662068696d2e20526561642068697320706173742067616d65732c206e6f7468696e6720627574206f6e656c696e657273207468652077686f6c652074696d652e Conclusively I would be happy to lynch iGrok wouldn't he carry Samus right now, this would bring Saturn down to 0.5Stock and probably dead by mafia hands come the night (yes I have a townread on him). Furthermore with the way the votes accumalted and the proximity to deadline, I don't think we can make a switch happen. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-Shiao btw | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I had a slight townread on Saturn, while solstice tended scum, right now we are both tending town on him | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 04 2012 06:08 Risen wrote: homerun earlier you said you don't understand saturn's decision to shoot igrok. Why is this? How can you not understand that having someone carry you, causing you to lose stock as a result, and then refusing to explaion as justification? If I was Saturn I'd have raised fifty thousand hells to lynch iGrok. that was largely due to conflicting reads between me and solstice. Since I was sleeping at that moment solstice posted | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 04 2012 06:55 ShiaoPi wrote: First off I am going by my own choice now, solstice is away right now, I wanted to lynch grush more so: ##unvote ##vote: grush57 Risen is reading as town to me. He was outspoken when he opposed the plan of iGrok and I doubt that scum would attract that much attention with something the majority had basically already decided to favor. Does not mean I agree with his critique of the plan. His play also seems quite open to me. Dedede: I was (and still am a bit) sceptical about the whole bus driver thing and have more or less a nulltell on him now. I am waiting to see what he does with his nightaction, before being able to make more out of him. Those reads are all mine and solstice might not share them. -Shiao fml.. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
what happens now that we tie? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
-Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Well that gives us Grush's role. -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 04 2012 07:28 Toadesstern wrote: OF COURSE IT IS  IT HAS A CPT. FALCON INVOLVED THOUGH! That's what made me ask the question :D -Shiao | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Tali- I did come up with some things that I value pretty highly, and one is some insight on Talismania. Acro had mentioned that in his past games with him, Talis came off as extremely town, and fast too. Without knowing anything about his meta, I really thought it was odd how a large portion of his filter was posts about really random junk that pertained to the game, but didn't really help us with our wincon. Reading Bastard Mafia 2 has me strongly leaning scum. Go have a look. click me! He is bold, fearless. He puts on the town leader hat right from his first post. He calls people out, pursues reads aggressively. Compare that to how he plays here. Extremely passive. Acro, I know you were thinking this earlier. Do you still feel the same way? Tali, what's the deal man? Who is scum? Why aren't you pursuing them? The way you are spending your time right now looks way scummy. Mr. Saturn- He is at 2 stock following the iGrok thing, and is still actively calling for any vig types to hit iGrok tonight knowing he will eat the same damage. I see no scum motivation for doing this. I read it as is he is town, and doesn't give a shit about dying if it kills his scum-read in the process. iGrok- Both Shiao and I think he is scum. The reasoning is outlined by Shiao in one of our previous posts. Please go look. I think Saturn is right in that iGrok has done nothing to help town. The day 1 carry at the time he did it was also odd. I really can't wait to hear the Saturn reasoning, because from what I see, at the time Saturn was carried there just wasn't much to go on. If I was in his shoes, I'd have been more cautious about potentially hurting a town Samus, which wasn't unlikely considering the weakness of all the reads at that point. There is going to need to be a rockstar/come-to-jebus/eureka type post from iGrok on day 2 for me to not want to lynch/lava push him. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I don't think you are scum. I wanted to see the reactions to pressure on you. I purposely picked that dayvig game, I saw it for exactly what it was. On July 05 2012 01:33 talismania wrote: After Hiro flailed around a bit trying to latch onto a target I think he was glad to find me. And his certainty in pushing me is consistent with scum behavior. I very much agree. This fits as well: On July 03 2012 09:44 Mister Saturn wrote: That works. But either a captain falcon needs to shoot iGrok tonight or we need to lynch iGrok day 2; otherwise he won't die. ##Unvote ##Vote: HomerunBat On July 04 2012 05:06 Mister Saturn wrote: It's not that I don't want to think for myself. It's that I don't trust myself right now. But I actually do agree with you on talismania. Maybe it's just me but the fact that he ignores the actually scummy parts of my play (like the fact that I've basically announced I'm sheeping or my uncertainty about HomerunBat) and focuses on pointless stuff makes me think he's scum. And to be honest he's been pretty unhelpful other than the bad case he made on me. I'm voting for talismania. I'll be back in half an hour. ##Unvote ##Vote talismania - Hiro On July 04 2012 10:00 Mister Saturn wrote: Do you not think HomerunBat is scum anymore, Risen? - Hiro Odd sheep vote on me, an admittance of uncertainty, and then when Risen goes elsewhere, he is left behind to push the case. This combined with how eagerly he latched on to Tali after a shitty meta argument has me pretty convinced. This also means iGrok was right. I'll have to think on that some more. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
##vote grush57 | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I want to talk about Risen. I'll try to keep this brief as I can, but it's going to be a longer post, so brace yourselves. Let's start with who he has been casting suspicion on. I was going to quote all the posts but I'll just summarize. Go have a look at his filter for verification. He has very obviously been on iGrok since day 1. He described a post by cephiro as 'so scummy,' and outlined in another post how he is scum playing dumb. He commented that Mister Saturn should be higher than rank 5 on cephiro's suspicion list, due to scum Mr. S potentially playing the 'emokid' on purpose He voted grush57 for emulating BM He voted talismania at the last minute. Prior to this he had voted talismania for accusing him. He also found talismania's list weird for outing blues, despite the fact that that was public knowledge. He voted for HomerunBat because we were so sure iGrok was town. He told Mr. Saturn to vote for us as well. The only person missing from this list is kingdedede. He is a town read for cephiro, and I think he looks pretty town too. When I tried to think of someone who I had a stronger town read on, it wasn't easy. So to sum up, Risen has been on pretty much everyone in the game at different times, minus possibly the strongest town read in the game. He has been casting suspicion on anything that moves. Keep this in mind as we move forward. Now have a look at this: On July 04 2012 06:28 Risen wrote: Well then lame... I still think people should vote for who they think is scum simply b/c a lynch != a flip. We don't gain information from a lynch like we normally would. At the same time, we have to put pressure on people we think are scum so it's not like we SHOULD be no-lynching. I just think putting a vote on someone you don't think is scum so you can be on one of the major targets is silly. He wants to vote for people who are scum regardless of what the vote-count it. He doesn't think you should be voting someone you don't think is scum just to bandwagon on a major target. Our major targets as the lynch approached were grush57 and talismania. Check it: On July 04 2012 06:29 Risen wrote: Also. ##unvote ##vote: GRUSH57 BM is NOT the person you want to emulate when playing games with me. Thirty minutes later: On July 04 2012 06:59 Risen wrote: ##unvote ##vote: talismania LAST SECOND SWAP LIKE I SAID I WOULD FUCK YOU CEPHIRO!!!! AGREED!!! He broke both his own rules here. He voted against his best scum reads (who I assume are me and iGrok, more on this in a sec), and tacked on to both of our major targets. Now his latest post: On July 04 2012 12:35 Risen wrote: I don't actually have super strong scum reads on anyone. Not sure I could so early in the game. iGrok and homerunbat top my list followed by t and you. But if you shoot iGrok to death you'll be my favorite person in this game. So the sum total of all his day 1 efforts...he thinks iGrok and I are the scummiest. He did jack shit to push us beyond momentary sparks amongst his accusations of pretty much everyone in the thread. Even after all that shit flinging, brazenly calling everybody and their mother scum, he has no strong scum reads? To me it looks like he is trying to look busy without actually doing anything. Last, small part, has to do with meta. I looked at TL Mafia LI and LIII. He was town in the former and scum in the latter. I didn't find anything extremely telling, as he plays pretty similar as both town and scum. There is one thing I noticed though. He was fond of using the old 'lol guys it's day 1 I have no reads' when he was scum, and it was nowhere to be seen when he was town. Here's the links for your perusal LI - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325046 LIII - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=329128 I ended up scrapping it because in his meta I saw he looked really scummy when playing both town and scum. The biggest thing I couldn't get over is that when he is scum, he is very forthcoming with his 'town reads' because he knows he is not wrong. I didn't really see that here. Maybe the smaller game set-up is making him more cautious at naming people town. Also, him accusing damn near everyone in the thread actually aligns more with his town meta. I ended up leaning slightly town because of this. I want to look more into how he has been treating grush. Everyone else thinking Risen is scum has me doubting my conclusion. -s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 05 2012 07:09 grush57 wrote: Do you get notified if you are roleblocked? On July 05 2012 07:10 Toadesstern wrote: YES On July 05 2012 15:59 Risen wrote: You're an idiot for not bussing onto someone you thought was scum. Also, I was roleblocked last night or I'm going to be seriously pissed at hosts. It should be pretty obvious if you were roleblocked, Risen. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
that's why Mr. Saturn is alive | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Cephiro, are you considering switching iGrok and Risen on the item stances? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Is DK's carry ability affected by the bus-driver? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Some people don't agree that you are town, but I really think you are. If you are scum, then good job screwing with my head. Cephiro, I linked Risen's past games in an earlier post of mine. I'd like you to take a look. TL mafia LI and LIII. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
iGrok's post was pretty rockstar. I especially like the aftermath of Risen knee-jerking at the speed of light. I also like that he is willing to die to go after his read. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I realized my last few comments put that in doubt. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
In light of iGrok's post, I'd like to push Tali or Mr. Saturn. I think Mr. Saturn is more likely to be scum #2. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Risen, for your suggestion to be true, not only would dedede have to be lying, but so would grush, who is town in your scenario. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I still think dedede is town though. It's the simplest explanation. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 05 2012 21:10 Mister Saturn wrote: Anyway, I still think Talismania might be scum. However I'm fine with pushing risen (I'll have to see what hiro thinks before we change our actions) since he might be scum (although I don't think he is, i still think his explosion at the start seemed townish) and since I still think you might be scum who is only just now trying the "bwahaha, I planned it all along I was playing scummy on purpose to see how people react" gambit. Just look at this. Can we pretty please push Mr. Saturn? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I don't agree with your big post, because I don't see the need to kill a townie before winning the game. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I'm going to repost this, so it doesn't get buried. On July 05 2012 21:10 Mister Saturn wrote: Anyway, I still think Talismania might be scum. However I'm fine with pushing risen (I'll have to see what hiro thinks before we change our actions) since he might be scum (although I don't think he is, i still think his explosion at the start seemed townish) and since I still think you might be scum who is only just now trying the "bwahaha, I planned it all along I was playing scummy on purpose to see how people react" gambit. How in the fuck is this not our push target for today? iGrok and Cephiro, you are both wrong on Risen. I want to ask you exactly what has he been fighting for for the past little bit? He is all-out fighting to switch the kill order from grush->risen->Mr. S to grush->Mr. S->risen? Why? He knows he's dead if Mr.S flips town anyway. Do the tone of his posts really suggest he is fighting extra hard to die a little bit later, or is it more likely that he is town and is honestly pissed that he is going to be killed for no reason? Scum in this situation do what Mr. S is doing: clam up. Also, I've said before to go look at TL Mafia LI. I'm not just saying that for my health. You may not love meta, but go look at that game and tell me you don't see a lot of the same stuff there as here. Look as well at how Risen has been addressing grush. What kind of scum, in an attempt to save a teammate, first announces that said teammate is 'confirmed town,' announces he will be late vote switching, and then after the fact says SORRY BRO I TRIED. You can call that WIFOM if you want, but I don't. The simplest explanation there is that they are not teammates. I want to hear from dedede and Talis. I want you both to consider what I said and ##push Mr. Saturn. iGrok and Cephiro, same thing. I want us all to push Mr. Saturn today, and have Cephiro blow his shit up on N2. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I don't agree with it, but I'll switch. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
cephiro was right about the finger pointing. it starts and ends with the filters, if you really think I'm scum, make a case. I have to say that your actions leading up to this deadline, are giving me doubts. I'm also trying to think of what Tali has done that has helped town. I still think we lynch grush today. The one thing that has me convinced is that he kept calling cephiro scum after it was extremely clear that the scum kp was aimed at him. Afterwards, he said something along the lines of it being an elaborate scum conspiracy. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
If he flips town, where would you be looking? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:42 grush57 wrote: CALLED YOU SCUM OUT NOW THREAD DEAD. EASY TOWN LYNCHED D2 GG SCUM WINS. AND UR ALL LETTING IT HAPPEN He is 100% correct. I think this is the scum team: Cephiro & Talismania Let's start with Cephiro. He is a town read to a lot of people. Why? He shit up the thread right off the bat arguing with Risen, and then tunneled him for the rest of the game. He buddied up to iGrok. These posts rang alarm bells for me the first time I read through them: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 05:49 Cephiro wrote: Back. I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me. He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads. Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking. Rank: 6 Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.) And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.) Rank: 8 ##Vote: Risen Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today. Rank: 7 talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch. Rank: 4 My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:39 Cephiro wrote: Mister Saturn: I was okay with his earlygame play, but since then he's gone all wishy-washy and saying he doesn't trust himself at all. He could be honest about it, or he could be scum looking for an easy way to vote for anyone. I don't care if you're unsure about yourself, I want you to do decisions based on your own opinion, not sheep others. Even the best players are wrong sometimes, and I don't want us to lose if you'll happen to sheep a townie that was wrong, or even worse, a scum dragging you by the ropes. The way you talk about "no-one cares about my opinion so I won't push for it anymore, but I have a gun and I'm not afraid to use it", isn't giving you any points in my book either. I want to hear YOUR opinions. Even if you aren't sure who is scum (which few are at this stage of the game), your opinions can still be valuable for others. So pick it up. And think before you act! Rank: 5 Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1. Rank: 3 The ranks are just strange. He uses a lot of words to point out tiny things he doesn't like about each person. Risen is the only person he really goes after hard...but he really doesn't describe anything scummy about him. All his accusations look to me like he is accusing Risen of bad play, not being scum. This is really the extent of his scum hunting, outside of tunneling Risen like a boss. I really don't get the sense he is going after the town win-condition. Let's look at the reasoning using his ranks. The highest numbers should lose stock first, continuing on down to the lower numbers. He has Risen first, and as I already explained, his accusations are pretty bad. Following Risen he has grush, a lurker. Following that he has me, because I am polite and I decided I would lynch talismania. Read those three paragraphs, his three top reads, and take note of how phony sounding the accusations are. Now let's go to the reason why he has been basically auto-towned...the NK. This is important. There are perfectly logical reasons for scum Cephiro to aim the NK at himself. Dedede read him as town, so Cephiro knew that as a townie looking Samus, there was a good chance that dedede would choose to protect him via bus. Even if he didn't, the NK only removes one stock, which would absolutely be worth the massive town cred it got him. This does not add or subtract to the case against him. The important thing here is that the NK aimed at Cephiro is a null point. There are logical, valid reasons for it be he town or scum. Without that NK stuff, there is just his filter, and the filter looks pretty bad imo. On to Talismania. It's a lot of the same. He has been very passive. He shit up the thread with set-up speculation. He buddied up to iGrok with the 'translation' post. He also disobeyed his own 'call to action.' + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:13 talismania wrote: eh then I guess ##unvote ##vote grush57 Since I don't think mister saturn is going to happen. + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 01:57 talismania wrote: eh, ##push: Risen I think he's done ok scrambling but I can't shake the fact that he tried to save grush at the last second. grush is clearly scum and he has simply played poorly. He shouldn't have shot the same person they were putting the night kill on to begin with, and he shouldn't have claimed the shot afterwards. Assuming there's at least some modicum of communication between the two scumbuddies, I can't imagine hiropro or strongandbig letting someone do that. I'll go ahead and roleclaim since I don't see why not at this point. I'm kirby, and I ate risen last night. He is indeed a donkey kong (kirby's eating is unaffected by the bus according to toad after I asked). I think this leaves only homerunbat as an unknown role not that it really matters at this point anyway. I don't see conviction, I see going with the flow. This following post is really the only independent scum-hunting I could find from him: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:38 talismania wrote: Yo guys I know it seems like I'm focusing too weirdly on the game setup but I'm almost certain toad didn't do this game randomly (and iGrok confirms that) and I also have the benefit of knowing what my role is. And knowing what my role is and the fact that I'm town makes it seem really crazy that town would also have two samuses. I dunno - it could still be balanced that way but it would have to depend on what Grush/homerunbat/risen are. Even then I think risen is town and half the time I think homerunbat is town as well (some vacillation there though). Beyond that point I think Saturn/hiropro is acting the scummiest. To reiterate/expand: 1) Read how he participated in the Risen v iGrok debate. He was there but he wasn't in-your-face there (as cephiro was). He pushed Risen a bit but also threw in heaps of questions all over the place. 2) Pointing out every little thing that could be scummy. He did this with grush just recently and I think once before that I can't remember. Bit of a weak scumtell. 3) Being a bit of an opportunistic voter. Weakest evidence for sure but he hopped on iGrok, then hopped off rather quickly. 4) Even weaker but he has made a few points that hint at thinking from a scum POV, where he talks about the optimal play for scum etc in the beginning. My only big problem with saturn being scum is that I can't figure out who his partner would be. I thought it was iGrok until the post-derp spat and it became clear iGrok picked him up and whatnot (which makes no sense from a scum point of view). In any event ##vote: Mister Saturn ________________ @acro I'm pretty sure iGrok wants to lynch me just to figure out what my role is (same as he would for grush - dunno why he doesn't want to lynch risen for that reason though. or homerunbat). He said not to vote for him today presumably because then we would also be doing 1.5kp to saturn (so he said to wait for tomorrow so he could pick someone else up). Don't know why he wouldn't want the extra damage on saturn though. He calls 2 of his own points weak, and then essentially invalidates his own argument at the end by declaring that he can't be sure because there is nobody that makes sense for his partner. Here's his 'call to action': Call to action: + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 01:33 talismania wrote: this is an 8-person game. To expand on what acro is asking for, everyone should be posting their reads of everyone else, at least once a cycle. In a thirty person game this sort of thing is cumbersome, but in a game this small it is essential. It forces scum to talk about themselves and everyone else, the more we make scum lie the better, yadda yadda. I'll keep compiling people's reads and such in the spreadsheet/document as they happen. Did anybody see the follow-through for this? It's just like a broken promise, he didn't answer his own call to action. Lastly, this of course means I think grush57 is town. If you assume Cephiro is scum, grush's actions make sense. I feel good about these reads, but I'm more sure on Talismania, so that's the direction I want to go today. Get your votes off grush57 and on to Talismania. ##unvote ##vote: Talismania | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
grush dies-> 3 town vs. 2 scum-> scum Cephiro shoots Saturn+ NK Saturn dies 2 town vs 2 scum=GG | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think it's really unlikely dedede is scum. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think acro is out of town now. Artanis are you there? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Look at his defense, he still, STILL cannot name a single person and build a case on them. It's all association play, without a scum flip. Look at his 'why I'm town section.' Are any of those strong points? | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Ask yourself when going through Talis' filter if he has really been trying to find scum. Read my case again (and Saturn's), and read his defense (especially the portion where he explains how he is town). This is going to be the most anxiety filled hour ever | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
sorry again, my phone auto logs in as s0L | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
07-06-2012 06:51 PM ET (US) + Show Spoiler + Edit Delete yea we should share, our role doesnt mean anything anymore 158 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:46 PM ET (US) should we share? I dont like the idea of claiming. 157 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:19 PM ET (US) if talis does flip town though and assuming we are still not endgamed by then grush/saturn need to die asap 156 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 05:38 PM ET (US) i'm glad we agree though, it's always scary being alone on a read, and I trust yours. 155 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 05:36 PM ET (US) yea Talis defense really rang scummy to me. his evidence for himself as town was so totally weak. notice also the anger, the F-bombs. It wasn't like this when he was up for lynch before. He is cornered. 154 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 04:24 PM ET (US) actually rereading talis defence is actually no defense but some funky connection stuff... I'll go along with your read on talis then. 153 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 04:21 PM ET (US) Well you are awesome at applying pressure. Talismania does point out the scary votetiming from saturn/grush though and his responses together with cephs look quite okay to me. If we lynch grush we have to be sure to hit scum as you already pointed out the numbers. Actually I am really unsure now. What are your thoughts right now? 152 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 09:47 AM ET (US) I'm gonna write up a case on both of them. I really think I have it right this time. 151 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:35 AM ET (US) plus, even if cephiro didn't get bussed, it would have given him MAD town cred for taking the night hit, and he would only be down 1 stock. A fair trade in my eyes. 150 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:34 AM ET (US) I actually think it's cephiro and Talis. It's entirely possible that they predicted that cephiro would be bussed. I have to look in dedede's filter, but I think he was reading Cephiro as town. It would take balls of steel, but they could have put the KP on cephiro. I looked at dedede's filter, and it is pretty solid. I get a strong town vibe from him. This means that grush will flip town. If this does indeed happen, then I will be more convinced. Of all the players left, the filters just don't lie. Cephiro has been tunneling Risen all game, and Talis has done next to nothing, just going with the flow. Not sure how much you want of this, we got a lot | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 08:19 AM ET (US) Cephiro/dedede scumteam? Otherwise the nighthit on Ceph does not make any sense 148 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:15 AM ET (US) Cephiro's filter does not look good imo. All he has done is tunnel Risen the entire game. 147 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 08:09 AM ET (US) yeah just saw it, my bad. 146 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 07:09 AM ET (US) yea he did, he said he ate risen. I looked at the votes. It was 4 votes for talis, 3 on grush. We then switched to grush, making it 3 to 4. Cephiro then comes in and votes grush. 3 to 5. Then risen switched from grush to talis. 4 to 4. Grush being the first to 4 means he would be lynched regardless of whether Talis was pikachu, assuming I understand it correctly. 145 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 07:00 AM ET (US) wait he claimed Kirby? You sure? I have not found a claim in his filter Edited 07-06-2012 07:03 AM 144 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:58 AM ET (US) hmm, ill have to look at the numbers. he has since claimed kirby. if he was really lying about that then he is totally scum. 143 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:44 AM ET (US) Well not following his own suggestion is something I overlooked. Looks pretty bad to be honest. I thought he was pikachu? Otherwise the whole lynch on grush day1 would not have worked. Edited 07-06-2012 06:45 AM 142 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:37 AM ET (US) i'll keep in mind what you said about Talis, I still haven't done a fresh read yet. I'm curious what you make of the fact that he called for everyone to present fresh reads once every cycle, then didn't even follow his own suggestion. 141 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:33 AM ET (US) another thing I want to do is look at dedede and cephiro again. if grush flips town especially so. Yoshi+samus would make sense for balance purposes.. I keep saying they are town, but I don't want to blind myself to the possibility. Also, Talis is Kirby. Kirby+falcon wouldn't be too bad for balance. 140 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 05:44 AM ET (US) Well consider talismanias reaction to the first case you made on him. Calm, explaining and well-structured. his thoughts about the setup might seem filler, but they can also be logical from a town perspective. I would still have him as a townread. Saturn is getting better, but it is kind of hard to read him as S&B and Hiro seem to have a completely different postingstyle. but would you really think that town has two samuses against a scumteam of pikachu/falcon? kind of imbalanced in my opinion, but yeah that is speculation about setup and stuff. If cephiro had not been the target of the scum KP I would have called him more scummy since earlier but like now I am kind of stuck on grush/Saturn team. A Talismania scum would be indicative of dedede scum in my opinion, Talis has zero interaction with dedede, which is worrying. But having the high townread on dedede I would lynch grush today and find a way to kill saturn 139 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 04:39 AM ET (US) and no worries 138 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 04:39 AM ET (US) The way Saturn has been behaving recently...it makes me want to have another look. Let me know your opinion, I am beginning to lean Talismania as the last scum. I haven't finished doing a review of it yet. Cephiro and dedede are very town, so it's gotta be either Tali or Mr. S. 137 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-05-2012 08:04 PM ET (US) Sorry for leaving you out like this the whole day, stuff came up and I just couldn't check til now. How do you want to proceed? Lynch grush and tell vig/samus to hit saturn at night? 136 s0Lstice 07-05-2012 06:47 AM ET (US) ah nvm. seems he is DK, he was surprised his carry target didn't get damaged. 135 s0Lstice 07-05-2012 04:51 AM ET (US) I think Risen is fox. He seems pretty surprised he took damage, asserting he got roleblocked. 134 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 08:03 PM ET (US) ok will do. 133 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 08:02 PM ET (US) I'll be off now. Keep pushing grush/Saturn if possible/needed. Any of their flips should be pretty good. 132 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 07:38 PM ET (US) thanks 131 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 07:37 PM ET (US) send it to the hydraaccount 130 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 07:30 PM ET (US) hey can you resend that risen case back to me? or just reply to it. I need the html coding intact. 129 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 06:29 PM ET (US) I totally agree with the vote on grush, seriously stacking up to make damage quite clearly scum. Also the push on saturn brings him to 1 stock. easy to pick off later 128 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 06:27 PM ET (US) oh wait ignore my derpfest of thought :S 127 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 06:26 PM ET (US) looks like dedede bussed between cephiro and risen. makes perfect sense | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I've been through dedede's filter a number of times and got a town read every time. I will go look again though, mainly because that's the one scenario we are totally screwed in. you are controlling the shot, so don't close your mind to anything, but don't be paranoid. There is no need to rush either, we got 24 hours. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
if its grush: he started the bandwagon on day 2 on him in the first place, without the last minute intervention he'd be dead. could have been a pro bus, but unlikely if it's cephiro: he would be in favor of the tali lynch, instead he called us a derp town and walked away. possible, but still unlikely if it's tali: he was the first to vote for him on day 1, and as a result, tali was in pretty serious danger of being lynched. this is outside of the fact that his filter is green as hell. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I read town on Saturn (eventually) and dedede without those qts. They are not needed. | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
 | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Gg all. Shoulda gone after ceph first! | ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
|
HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
| ||
| ||
