EPTBasically, if suki flipped green, nullify all the reads you have and do a reevaluation.
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 3
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Basically, if suki flipped green, nullify all the reads you have and do a reevaluation. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
You're right. I read through crossfire's case thinking "omg no wonder I feel sciberbia is acting weird so this is why". I will do as you suggested. @sciberbia I understand you have life responsibilities.. But it'd be a lie if I say I don't mind it. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Blue roles @Cop Out with a guilty, else don't out. @Other blue roles Jail keeper should have at least 2 innocent that is still alive. @Last Mafia Concede now Please correct me if there is anything wrong with my suggestions, if not lets get on to scum hunting I am reserving my judgement until more player shows up. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I did not go through his filter, but I think the sample size is really small, and I agree on bandwagon theory on him being an easy target to attack for a mislynch. @sciberbia I want to hear some opinions on Don't feel obligated to response to this, but this reminds me of Crossfire's case against you. I will go into your history now. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
PLEASE come online and post more. I doubt he is scum. *The way he misses his votes seem careless enough. I think killing s0Lstice is a very good choice. *The mods would have just ask for night actions in the scum quick topic if they were the ones not posting actions, assuming mods can post there Are mods able to post on mafia quick topic if they really needed to? @suki To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story. You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive Suki, I made a case against both you and rolf based on far sketched logic and knee-jerk defense. I later defended you to death and stated there is no way Suki and Rolf can be partners. I would hate to be wrong again changing for changing my mind the third time, but I can't ignore my own reads and stays stubborn. For all fairness, here are some few points that is for suki:
However, I don't think it out weights your "scumminess", give your slip. Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia? | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Damn it. I wrote an entire post and accidently hit refresh. When I hit back my text was no longer there, but below is more or less my post: I totally missed s0Lstice's case on Unforgiven. Back off my mind he reads Unforgiven town, and if anything he probably based it after you are lynched and flipped town. If that is true, you were jumping back and forth, thus increasing my suspicion towards you, ultimately leading me to think you are actually the final mafia. Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. [green]May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context: + Show Spoiler + Mods not banning Unforgiven/MJ for missing a vote twice I am convinced by his case. However, I am weary of his NK. It seems too obvious to me and can be used easily by another scum to push the lynch on Unforgiven. However, like s0Lstice's said, "the most obvious shit is the shit".. I mean, you know what I meant. Side Note: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? Now that I think from a townie Suki POV, it seems like you are confused because you can't even think of another scummier player than yourself. You got town read on everyone else, and everyone else is pointing their finger towards you. I seriously don't want to make another read on you anymore. I jumped 4 times, starting with linking you and rolf, then defending you because I don't see my link, and back to accusing you, and now I am- Never mind, useless information. @Unforgiven_ve Please respond to your accusations. If you are blue please claim your night actions, now. If you think you can stop the lynch without replying: ##Vote Unforgiven_ve Things I noticed:
We also cleared Unforgiven_ve based on one thing: MJ/Unforgiven was bussed by 2 scums day 1 and it is "unlikely". However, like sciberbia said, there is no "danger" of getting MJ lynched. I wrote a long case on Unforgiven, but many of the idea was gotten from reading s0Lstice and scribebria's case. I just wanted to point this out: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote: Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself! Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. While this doesn't seem important, at that time I was thinking, why was rolf being so friendly at MJ. MJ was echoing exactly what I said, and his case on me was that I echoed scibebria when I debunks suki. This may not hold merit since rolf is a scum: he could done it just to "buddy up" a townie. I see very little of Unforgiven and I want to see his responses under pressure. @If Unforgiven was not Scum I know I am drawing a lot of speculations here. But what if Unforgiven was not scum? Townie should not feel demotivated since he lurked and hardly contribute. I also think Unforgiven has a chance to flip blue, so unforgiven, if you are blue, Please out with your night actions before you are lynched My policy is to stay neutral If Unforgiven is Blue + His lurked. Fits in a blue situation + Mod not killing him for not voting - However, he is generally not helpful and never came out with a stance - His opening post randomly attacks one target Unless a blue backs him up (be careful cops, there may be 2 godfathers), or he provided a satisfying defense, I will not change- + Show Spoiler + nevermind. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
How do we lynch a dead guy  ##Vote: HeavOnEarth I agree. I thought people claiming "I am town" is weird already. Who would say they are not? I did not point it out because so many people started his/her first post by saying "Hi guys, I am town". However, claiming vanilla town is totally different. There is no reason to claim VT, unless you really like to WiFOM, which confuses fellow townies and scums alike, unless you are scum. @Correction to my previous post Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context: I reread and noticed he only used Xatalos' post as one of the argument, not entirely based on it. However, this does not change my mind on his case. If Unforgiven_ve flipped town.. I don't consider that as a possibility. We will talk about it until he did. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I see. After reading rwhat mod said I thought it was weird s0Lstice based his argument on Xatalos's post. Mod Said: I commented on some stuff in the obs qt and xatalos posted something on the line of "zel slippin information in the obs qt". Not related to anything actually happening in the thread so you can ignore that ^^ from s0Lstice's case: I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away. Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player Perhaps Xatalos gave away more than what mod and you mentioned to me, but basing on what you both said: "zelblade has been slipping information on the obs QT." More speculations and random thoughts drawn on this piece of information
Why is no one else commenting? @Unforgive_ve I am still waiting for your defence. @Golden_ve + Show Spoiler + I just noticed both your names ends with "_ve" I noticed you have not commented. You were active Day 1 and 2, why the sudden change after my case on you? Please don't be afraid to post because of that. There is only one more scum to go. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part. @MJ/Unforgiven_ve Rereading moudly jab's first day's posts, I don't feel like he is scum. He throws a random suspicion on rolfwaffle and rolfwaffle55 was really friendly to him. It feels like he is buying townie for rolfwaffle. I am now no longer certain if Unforgiven_ve is scum. However, if no one views the same with me, then we will go ahead with the lynch. Now, assuming Unforgiven_ve flips vanilla town like he said he would, what's next? My next FoS is going to be s0Lstice. If O.Golden_ve failed to show up, I hope mods modkill him without replacement or something. I don't know. I am not gonna lie. I don't like how he lurks and I feel like if he is town he is throwing the game away for town by not contributing, so O.Golden_ve, please come back and contribute. @s0Lstice It sucks to say this, but after knowing what xatalos originally said, I feel like s0Lstice jumped too far in his analysis of Unforgiven. It seems like he is frustrated at figuring out who is scum, and as soon as he get a first vibe, he jumps on it. + Show Spoiler + Kinda like when I was in my Maths exam. When I think I figured out something, I jumped on it and don't want to care anymore. He basically based his case on 3 things, please correct me if there are more:
Why did he died
Case on unforgiven I strongly doubt unforgiven or any of his "scum mentor" would suggest to kill him. That makes his case so much more powerful, and he won't be able to retract his reads. Of course, disregard any WIFOM that may exist. If unforgiven flips green, Last scum is looking to push a mislynch on unforgiven. My next question is "who"? @Suki - Back to you, honey. It was suki who was the first to jump on Unforgiven and I immediately thought she must be the last scum. Now that I step back and think, it is an understandable reaction. Suki thinks she is going to be lynched day 3, but she couldn't figure out who is scum. She have town reads on everyone and is confused. When s0Lstice pointed out that we cleared MJ/unforgiven based on a fragile reason, and she immediately thinks to herself "that's why!" and jumps on it eagerly. The same situation can be described by a scum's point of view, but it felt like it was too obvious if anything. @sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything? The second person who jumped on the Unforgiven bandwagon was sciberbia. Crossfire built a good case on him, but why did he back down? Sciberbia plays a lot like town, and he is known to be a very good player-I assume he is good at covering his tracks. S0Lstice is known to be a good player, and he defended sciberbia. Suki has a problem with sciberbia being scum because of the insta rolf bus. However, in order for me to see sciberbia as town like s0Lstice suggested, I studied two of his game as town. This is my analysis. My analysis on sciberbia based on past games He always started out with a policy talk, blue strategy or setup strategies in general. He list down his reads systematically. He do ask for other people's opinions on his case. I also noticed, in both of his games, the ones he called out were actually mafia. I would be lying if I said I am not impressed. Overall, his plays seems similar and there is not much to suspect........+ Show Spoiler + NOT After I have a good read on his filters in other games, I came back to his filters on this game. There is no You are scum post in day 1. None. Instead, he listed down already controversial players, and comment on them honestly. When I mean honestly I mean, trying to make comments based on townie's POV Passive comments that made sense without applying pressure on anyone, which seems like a big issue in his other games. Newbie Mafia XV + Show Spoiler + sciberbia's case on Suki In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia - he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything - he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance - he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik - he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos @Town If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will... ##Vote suki + Show Spoiler + Newbie Mafia XIV Sciberbia's case against Miltion ... IN SUMMARY: I think milton is scummy: - he hasn't posted a ton but enough not to be lurky - he tried to pile supsicion on me but was wishy/washy about it - he isn't sticking his neck out on anything Have we seen any post like these from sciberbia in this game? None at all in day 1, and note that these posts were made in Day 1 in both games. Also, this bothers me: + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote: alan133 There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler + suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire defensive: me no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth More of my thoughts on alan+ Show Spoiler + With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent. It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it. I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do. Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared. @MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him? What? I checked his past games, and there are moments where players who he have a town read is getting lynched. What did he do in those games? + Show Spoiler + I am running out of time and this is getting really long, so I am not posting more quotes. Ask if you need it I will post it directly quoting your request. Also, this may be over-speculation, + Show Spoiler + but sciberbia was VANILA both games. I am sure many people have caught an eye on him due to him calling out mafias in both games day 1, and I think many people wanted to see how he fair as scum/blue. Townie points for sciberbia The only scum that he directly called out was rolfwaffle in night 1. This may be the only point holding people back. I would be lying if I was not swayed by this. No reason for him to bus rolfwaffle, it will take 15 more days to win, and I think people rarely wants to sit through this 15 days. I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is. Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting? Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him. I am all for lynching Unforgiven despite what I've said. I hope unforgiven spill red, and if so I am sorry for reading this wrong, sciberbia. I am out of time, I will be back in a few hours later. Sciberbia, I reread your case on unforgiven and I thought those were solid arguments. I also noticed you were not free during day 1, so you could not come out with a solid scum read like you had in past game. Can you tell me why you changed your mind on suki? Other than you now a better lynch target. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
There is no use denying blues anymore if you are a blue. We are set to lynch you. Please out with your actions before it's too late, it will help town a lot. + Show Spoiler + Shesh. I would like a confirmation of scum reads from everyone, given that Unforgiven flips green. @sciberbia Him killing s0Lstice and changing lynch from suki to Unforgiven seems logical. Sciberbia has no scum slips, but it would be expected to avoid them judging on his accurate scum reads and strong analysis on his previous games. If he is scum, he probably made a list for "what to never ever post" @Golden Given that he did not get mod killed (He posted nothing today, and I hope he really got modkill since it is spoiling the game for town given he is town), he would be my second FoS. However, given his history (I did not check, I based it on mod's pregame comment on him), this is why he get mod killed. @Suki Suki's defense is really strong, and sciberbia mentioned it seems like suki is acting like the game will go on after she's dead. I beg to defer. It is easier to fake something like this especially when you're aware of it. + Show Spoiler + sorry suki if I am wrong @Austin's dead I would say mafia was searching for blue. Rolfwaffle was practically dead and the best scums could've hoped for is to kill the vig/or there is no vig. This will give them one extra day. I can totally see sciberbia wanting to bait and see if there are any vigilante slip by outing it. This is far sketched, but I won't be surprised if that is the case when he flip scum. Austin aren't the most active poster, giving him some "blue points". @s0Lstice's dead I think this is more of a "kill strong trusted analytic townie". This is a good scum move. I sincerely thinks this is better than "kill the confirmed vigilante that can't write english well and occasionally change his mind/counter argue himself." I don't want to out my "next expected victim if Unforgiven_ve flip town". I don't know how good my analysis is, but in case they are good, I don't want scums to get advantage from it. Please think who is scummiest. Suki, if you are town, do the town a favor and regain your confidence. Don't worry about pushing the wrong lynch. Everyone does that. When we lose we will just laugh about it and learn. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. We need your help. If suki flip scum I can see how every is going to LOL at me. may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote? | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I was talking about your first case against trackd00r @sciberbia Indeed, sharp as always. @golden please vote @crossfire please vote | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
gg Unforgiven_ve. I don't blame you since you're busy but only if you were more active.. Sigh. + Show Spoiler + I let out my frustration on sciberbia and how the town worships him as if he is God. My message was s0Lstice is a 100% confirmed townie, sciberbia is not. Trackd00r is an easy lynch. Unforgiven_ve is an easy mislynch, and I am not gonna drop my speculation about how scum killed s0lstice just to push this mislynch, although there are 10,000 other reasons for scums to kill him. I am going to look for filter one by one when I got back from work. For now, I don't like how sciberbia jumped from suki to Unforgiven_ve without reconsidering s0Lstice's case. I believe no matter how good a scum is, there must be a leak somewhere, I just had to find it. Screw circumstantial talks, screw speculations. I am sorry but I am truly frustrated at the current situation. Laters. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Please help me out by posting more reads. What is your stance on Suki's case on Miltonkram? @Suki I will analyse Miltonkram later, I just came back and I need to go out for something again. Please look more closely at sciberbia since you have made up your mind about Miltonkram. What if Miltonkram flip green? @Miltonkram Less time defending, more time analyzing. Who is your next FoS? @Sciberbia Everyone put you on the townie read. Everyone. Even if I am convinced that you are scum I believe it is hard to push a lynch to you. I am just gonna say this: I hope my brain is all fucked up and kept going after you, everyone is right and I am wrong. If I die tonight I don't see Sciberbia is ever getting lynched, on the other hand, I would think this is a wifom. I rather the wifom situation since I will still be able to do reads and influence other players. I am going to read through everyone else's filter, then yours. @Blue Action -Cops: I hate to say, but I should have recommended you to investigate lurkers. However, I'd like you to investigate Miltonkram. -Medic: Do not heal me nor Sciberbia -Jailkeeper: I would like you to jail Sciberbia. If there is no kill, then its done. If anyone suggested scums did not kill because of my suggestion: No. -Vig/Me: Only if I have another bullet | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@scberbia Sorry for the hard tunnel (if this is considered one). For the exact reason you mentioned I can't read anyone as scum. I want to think that you are scum because I believe he is good enough to hide this well. @Blues Jail keeper-please out the guys you kept. They are innocent Cop-I hope you can save us from day 3. Even you didnt nail scum you should have some few innos @Golden He turned out just to vote He did not defend himself his hostile reply to my case i don't know. I hate to know we spent 3 days and overlook one scum like this. He did not bother to defend himself everytime I mentioned him. I cleared him by my self arguing. Please look at him more closely. Sorry for the late late post, | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
-Feel anxious even when town is in a good lead. If we can overlook MJ for bandwagonning, why not Gold. -Gold, since you seems disinterested, do you want to concede as scum? | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Don't worry, not gonna disappear anytime soon  @All GG all, was fun while it lasted, off to the obs to see if they are raging at me right now :p Good luck town! Its up to you all now. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On June 27 2012 09:40 EchelonTee wrote: wat That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling... Indeed, especially after trackd00r flips veteran in Day 2 lynch.. Is it me or everyone's last reads were mislynch? xD | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I meant the players who post a last case in the game xD Austin - ??? s0Lstice - Unforgiven_ve alan133 - Golden_ve sciberbia - suki | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I feel like if trackd00r and Golden did not ditch us with "omg u suspect me I keep quiet and make u cry" we would have won this much easily. Is this common in TL Mafia games? :/ | ||
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