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On May 19 2012 12:10 Misder wrote:
Oh, my logic is assuming that only one of them is lying. If two of them are lying, then anyone could be anything (well, I haven't done the deductive reasoning, but I would assume so).
Multiple liars also has to consider the chances that toadesstern and/or zelblade could be lying as well, so not all roles mentioned are necessarily part of the equation.
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Jesus Christ there's so many liars.
zelblade picked JOAT and didn't get it. R, M,or S must be JOAT.
If S isn't lying, R or M is lying
M picked mason. R picked vigi.
It'd clear M if his mason claimed but I don't want to give scum a free townie.
The JOAT is between risk and sent.
Toad you were wrong about lynching into risk/sent/marv.
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On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position.
I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.
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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.
If that's true, then Sentinel is the correct lynch (remember, he is claiming to have gone for Janitor).
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On May 19 2012 12:14 PaqMan wrote:
Jesus Christ there's so many liars.
zelblade picked JOAT and didn't get it. R, M,or S must be JOAT.
If S isn't lying, R or M is lying
M picked mason. R picked vigi.
It'd clear M if his mason claimed but I don't want to give scum a free townie.
The JOAT is between risk and sent.
Toad you were wrong about lynching into risk/sent/marv.
If risk is JOAT, what does sent have?
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On May 19 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:14 PaqMan wrote:
Jesus Christ there's so many liars.
zelblade picked JOAT and didn't get it. R, M,or S must be JOAT.
If S isn't lying, R or M is lying
M picked mason. R picked vigi.
It'd clear M if his mason claimed but I don't want to give scum a free townie.
The JOAT is between risk and sent.
Toad you were wrong about lynching into risk/sent/marv. If risk is JOAT, what does sent have?
If risk is JOAT (and is thus lying about taking Vigilante), we have multiple liars because either marvellosity took Janitor (and is lying about being mason) or Sentinel is lying about taking Janitor.
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Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread.
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On May 19 2012 12:21 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:14 PaqMan wrote:
Jesus Christ there's so many liars.
zelblade picked JOAT and didn't get it. R, M,or S must be JOAT.
If S isn't lying, R or M is lying
M picked mason. R picked vigi.
It'd clear M if his mason claimed but I don't want to give scum a free townie.
The JOAT is between risk and sent.
Toad you were wrong about lynching into risk/sent/marv. If risk is JOAT, what does sent have? If risk is JOAT (and is thus lying about taking Vigilante), we have multiple liars because either marvellosity took Janitor (and is lying about being mason) or Sentinel is lying about taking Janitor.
I guess. I don't really believe there are two liars though cause it doesn't really make much sense unless some townie is trying to screw town over.
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On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread.
Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet.
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@Qatol yeah that's true. I still think Sent is townie, lying or not. At least townier than risk. I don't see sent as scum putting himself into this position. If he was scum he'd play it safer than that. Especially since he had a choice and no one was forcing him to choose janitor.
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On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet.
And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town.
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On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread.
Drop the condescending attitude, please. Remember that not all of us have the same information you have. And besides, it is clearly necessary because a bunch of players aren't getting it. If it's all so obvious to you, why don't you walk us through it constructively rather than just sit on the sidelines and heckle us?
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On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town.
I don't understand how you think Sentinel is lying yet is still town. At best, he was trying not to get hit by mafia because he has a role that he deems super extremely important that it's worth this entire discussion and mislynch. He hasn't defended himself, and if he really was town hiding a blue role, he should have claimed by now seeing that he's about to get lynched anyways. You say that you don't think he's that stupid as mafia to put himself in this situation, but he would be this stupid as town?
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Looks like we had enough to lynch Sentinel whenever GM gets around to posting the night post.
If Palmar pardoned Sentinel (which I don't think he did because he's intelligent), someone should probably shoot him for prolonging the debate).
If Sentinel flips town, we shoot/lynch risk.nuke tonight and tomorrow.
If Sentinel flips mafia, obviously risk.nuke has to shoot tonight so we should still discuss mafia targets throughout the night.
Just waiting on the flip now.
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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.
On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town.
Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying.
Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively:
1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd
2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd
3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla
4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla
5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla
Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor.
1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him?
I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further:
1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.)
2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened:
2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars.
2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars).
3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him.
So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early?
Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying.
If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated:
We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.
Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target?
I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates.
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On May 19 2012 13:27 Snarfs wrote:
Looks like we had enough to lynch Sentinel whenever GM gets around to posting the night post.
If Palmar pardoned Sentinel (which I don't think he did because he's intelligent), someone should probably shoot him for prolonging the debate).
If Sentinel flips town, we shoot/lynch risk.nuke tonight and tomorrow.
If Sentinel flips mafia, obviously risk.nuke has to shoot tonight so we should still discuss mafia targets throughout the night.
Just waiting on the flip now.
I disagree. I think if Sentinel flips town, we have to force marvellosity's mason buddy to claim before we go after risk.nuke. That way, if risk.nuke flips innocent as well, we have forced another liar out of the woodwork (giving us the whole scum team if I'm not mistaken - marvellosity, zelblade, the "mason target", and deconduo).
If Sentinel flips mafia, why is risk shooting? Better still, who is he shooting? We want to take actions on as much information as possible. We also don't want to speed the game up. If Sentinel flips mafia jack, I don't think risk should be shooting at all. If Sentinel flips as some other form of mafia, I agree risk should probably shoot into the list of other liars.
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EBWOP: If Sentinel flips mafia jack (which I think is the most likely situation), I don't think risk should be shooting at all.
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Sorry, I just figured risk would be a very high priority target for mafia being both a vigilante and very likely town so in order to use his power role he would have to use it tonight. The other option is for him to not use it and risk dying, but risk.nuke doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would want to get killed by mafia without using his KP  .
Honestly, risk is probably going to shoot tonight. He's that kind of guy. We should do our best to give him the best target, while at the same time, if we can't find a reasonable one, encourage him not to shoot 
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Although, in saying that, I realize zelblade is also a very high priority target for mafia >.>. Either way, the point is not to avoid discussing mafia targets during the night phase. That is all.
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On May 19 2012 13:39 Snarfs wrote:Sorry, I just figured risk would be a very high priority target for mafia being both a vigilante and very likely town so in order to use his power role he would have to use it tonight. The other option is for him to not use it and risk dying, but risk.nuke doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would want to get killed by mafia without using his KP . Honestly, risk is probably going to shoot tonight. He's that kind of guy. We should do our best to give him the best target, while at the same time, if we can't find a reasonable one, encourage him not to shoot
Doesn't that just mean we should ask the Jailkeeper (if there is one) to protect him? The only problem with that is it would expose whether or not there is a Jailkeeper in the game (if risk.nuke lives, he can tell us if he was roleblocked. If he dies, there probably isn't a Jailkeeper). However, I don't think that hurts the town as badly compared to the potential benefit of blocking a hit or two (a potential mafia hit on risk.nuke + a likely miss on his vigilante hit).
On May 19 2012 13:40 Snarfs wrote:
Although, in saying that, I realize zelblade is also a very high priority target for mafia >.>. Either way, the point is not to avoid discussing mafia targets during the night phase. That is all.
I agree. That being said, unless something changes dramatically or the lynch doesn't go as expected, my point is that I'd rather not see anyone shooting.
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EPT
