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On May 17 2012 11:43 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On May 17 2012 10:27 Qatol wrote:
I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player. Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense. I can see a decent train of thought to allow such an action (assuming that the mafia picked CPR, Day Vigi, and Copy Cat). We have been talking throughout the first day about roleblocking the CPR doctor. This way, that isn't going to happen. Plus it puts a mafia member into a position to heavily mislead the town for the rest of the game.
this is true. i actually had not considered the copycat in my thought process
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Hey paqman, do you find qatol's case against you scummy like you did mine in area LIII? Or do you think he's just an off track townie?
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@Barundar and Qatol and others who think I could be scum
I would like to elaborate on my thought process behind shooting decon.
1. I voted (in the poll not in thread) for PYP. This is because before Palmar even spoke of it and before alignments went out, I wanted to dayvig someone 1 post into the game (as town, as scum idk what i woulda done). I firmly believe everyone voting PYP picked that setup not because they could come up with a sweet pre-game plan, but because they could almost guarantee themselves a blue role meaning they have some sort of control over the game. This is why I put so little effort into the pre-game after my first couple posts, mostly because I realized that I was going to pick the role I wanted (dayvig) so why would I expect anything else out of everyone else
(I kinda hinted at all this here: + Show Spoiler +On May 15 2012 05:38 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 05:37 Palmar wrote:On May 15 2012 05:36 Mattchew wrote:On May 15 2012 05:35 Palmar wrote:
Bitch is a compliment in my own twisted way. you should just go fishing Announcement, I intend to win this draft thing and draft a day vigilante and shoot the first person I don't like. not if i get there first... they call me quick draw mcgraw
2. The moment Decon said I am pick 1,1 I immediately thought of this + Show Spoiler +. There was nothing particularly scummy about announcing his intentions to pick 1,1. It got scummy when he actually got the top spot. I could wrap my head around no other townies picking the 1,1 or 1,# because everyone is attempting to get the best position for themselves (this goes back to my why we voted PYP theory) and pick 1,# means you are guaranteeing yourself to drop down a substantial amount of spots. I could not wrap my brain around scum not blocking out a townie at the top spot and trying to get the CPR doc (literally an extra KP) for themselves.
3. I stand by what I said about the CPR Doc role. I think it leads to a lot of extra dead townies regardless of whether town or scum gets it.
4. When I saw I got the Dayvig role, I knew I was shooting immediately. To be honest, if Decon had not gotten the first pick, I would have been shooting Palmar, because I had said so. My numbers were 11,4 (11 is my favorite number, 4 is the number of Scott Stevens). I was the 5th pick so I sent in my dayvig selection literally as soon as I saw the picking order. I reared back and shot with the hopes of hitting scum, knowing that the reality was it was kinda unlikely but atleast I would probably saving the lives of a lot of others (kinda like the Batman's dilemma).
Bonus :Here is a video of me (Scott Stevens) hitting Decon (Paul Kariya) + Show Spoiler +
5. The Copycat theory never entered my thought process because I had not read through the roles enough and didn't really partake in any pre-game plans. If I just gave scum a secret CPR Doc, woops!
Qatol, I actually would really like to see everyone's numbers they picked. I think that contrary to your opinion there is alignment information to be extracted from the numbers.
Another question I have for people is what are the chances a scum team picked copycat if I am town? Unless they were going to hardcore bus decon today to get him lynched I don't see any reason for a scum team to pick that role considering someone is most likely going to be lynched today that is mostly out of their control.
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On May 17 2012 22:01 Palmar wrote:
also nice job mattchew. you're now confirmed town along with me and zephirdd. let's internet high five each other.
i'll internet high five you when you catch scum today, get on my level son.
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Marv you aren't janitor right? meaning risk.nuke is? Was that the plan?
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On May 18 2012 00:23 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 23:11 Mattchew wrote:
Qatol, I actually would really like to see everyone's numbers they picked. I think that contrary to your opinion there is alignment information to be extracted from the numbers.
Another question I have for people is what are the chances a scum team picked copycat if I am town? Unless they were going to hardcore bus decon today to get him lynched I don't see any reason for a scum team to pick that role considering someone is most likely going to be lynched today that is mostly out of their control.
If you aren't mafia, it's likely that noone picked copycat, or that it is in town hands. At least wiggles picked up CC in PYP:I. I reserve my final judgement of you for when we know if a CPR doc KP is in the night posts. If you are town, clever seen with the numbers, got no problem sharing my list: deconduo [1] [1] Mafia CPR doc risk.nuke [4] [2] marvellosity [7] [2] [UoN]Sentinel [9] [1] Mattchew [11] [x] Day vig zelblade [12] [x] Bluelightz [14] [x] talismania [15] [1] Misder [2] [1-2] PaqMan [2] [2] slOosh [10] [x]
Toadesstern [10] [10]Barundar [3] [1] Zephirdd [3] [2] hiro protagonist [3] [2+] Palmar [5] [1] Snarfs [5] [1] Qatol [5] [1] sandroba [5/0] [x] Probulous [5/0] [x] town modkill
sloosh and toad don't add up. you should be above them if zeph did not pick the same exact pair as you
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@quatol
I said that it was kinda unlikely that I were to hit scum because while I thought my logic was good and all (making me at the time relatively confident), I understood/understand that there was still only a 5(or6)/19 or around 1/4 chance of me hitting scum. The fact that it was almost guaranteed that he took the most anti-town role was what lead me to not second guessing my shot.
It's kinda like my first posts in the game where I talk about everyone being assigned a pick. I thought that was logical at the time, but in retrospect realized it was bad for town and plain stupid.
The CPR Doc was talked about in the sign up phase of the game and people were excited about it. It drew a ton of attention to anyone reading the thread at anytime and I had never heard of it. At somepoint when I glanced over the roles I probably read the copycat role, but in no way did it factor into my decision to shoot decon which is irresponsible i guess. In all honesty though, I know I am town. So even now, knowing about the copycat role, I think it was the right choice to shoot
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I kind of want to lynch Risk.Nuke because he's the janitor and because of some numbers thing I worked out in my head
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We have so much kp. If risk doesn't flip janitor, we shoot marv and sent.
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On May 18 2012 04:37 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 04:36 Mattchew wrote:
We have so much kp. If risk doesn't flip janitor, we shoot marv and sent.
how's about no
oh wait not as much KP as i thought... marv wouldn't you agree that a 2town for 1scum is good for town
In the original posts, if the janitor uses his role, will the team members alive numbers be updated or will they become question marks?
(referring to + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote:
4/4 Mafia Remain
1/1 Serial Killers Remain
15/15 Vanilla Townies Remain
Mafia Alignment KP = 1
SK Alignment KP = 1
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Actually I am reconsidering voting risk.nuke. I think I am being fooled by sent claiming first and me thinking I figured out the mafia's numbers strategy.
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On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:
Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ?
Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them.
what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo)
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On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote:On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:
Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ?
Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet.
so lets say risk is janitor... why is he voting sent?... why would a townie lie to allow us to mislynch someone?
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Who flipped town according to me?
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Oh ok I get it why would risk lie to push a lynch onto sent
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Kinda i see what toad is saying that I am assuming that 1 of them has to be scum
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toad, please explain to me how all 3 could be town, and not be playing the most anti-town game?
If risk and marv are telling the truth, then sent is lying about being VT and voting risk for no reason other than this situation and to hold on to whatever role he has in secret
if marv and sent are telling the truth, then risk is lying about not taking the Janitor role and is voting sent for no other reason than this situation and for him to hold on to a scummy role (of no benefit to town) in secret
if risk and sent are telling the truth, than marv is lying about not taking the janitor role and he is allowing all this discussion about risk/sent/himself to go on and possibly end up in a lynch
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I want to lynch risk today. I cannot explain anything he has done from a town perspective
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I also think risk is afraid to claim because he knows there could be a counter-claim or if he chooses a role to claim that no one would pick as town/2nd pick overall, he will be caught also.
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EPT
