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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm all for lynching a lurker, but we should definitely wait a bit for everyone to have a chance to post. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 11 2012 00:23 Crossfire99 wrote: He posted less than an hour into the day and he makes a reference to a previous game. I don't know what happened in the previous game, but it seems like dahdum was mafia and Firmtofu wasn't and that the town lost (I infer this from his little >< face). It seems like he is complimenting dahdum's play and hopes they are on the same side. What's bad about that? As for his lynching lurkers stance, he was like one of the first posts, so no one really posted and it seems he was stating that we should wait to judge people until they posted. If people still lurked after a while then he seems to support lynching the lurkers. This isn't a terrible stance if I am interpreting him correctly, so I want clarification from him on this, though. Crossfire put it best. dahdum was in a game before this and I just commented on how I hope he isn't scum again because he played well last game. I didn't think I was acting suspicious at all, but apparently it was? Regardless, we should switch up our votes onto some more scummy targets. There are certain people that are playing very pro-town right now, but may be doing so just to gain the town's trust. It's extremely hard to tell from just Day 1 behavior, so I think our best for a lynch would be to hunt those people who are genuinely acting scummy or playing poorly. Anacletus seems like the perfect target to start. On May 10 2012 23:26 Anacletus wrote: I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no? But if he's town, shit. This quote is suspicious, for reasons mentioned previously my numerous people. However, there is an interesting phrasing of words I find rather intriguing. See bold. What motive would anyone have to say that sentence. Is it not already a statement of fact? Why did he feel the need to reiterate something that is quite obvious to everyone that is playing: If we lynch Tofu and he's town, then we are in trouble. Well, no shit Sherlock. Generally when town people die, the mafia gets farther ahead. Here's my theory. Anacletus knows I am town, because I'm not on his mafia team. Therefore, he knows if and when I get lynched, I will flip town. That statement is guilt insurance and a scum tell because of it. He is trying to insure himself now so that later, he can say "Aw crap, well I was wrong, but look at my previous post where I admitted I might be wrong!" When town members vote people, they don't know whether they are right or wrong. When mafia vote people they know the exact alignment of the person they are voting. I believe this knowledge just leaked from Anacletus the mafia. ##vote:Anacletus | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
##vote Anacletus Please forgive my terrible punctuation and sentence structure in my previous post. I only got 3 hours of sleep last night. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
You are all listing all of the people you deem suspicious AND least suspicious. Why? We only need to find ONE guy today and that guy is supposed to be BAD not GOOD. With all these lists of scummy to non-scummy, we are just giving the mafia advice on how to play better. Instead of showcasing your reads of EVERYONE, just tell us the reads of the people you think are scummy. You are doing mafia's work for them if you tell everyone who you think is the most pro-town. i.e. me. That being said, I would like to shift our bandwagon because it's becoming a bit superfluous at this point, with a lot of the same points repeated and the same fail defense from Analectus. Here's a post I found extremely scummy from a different person. On May 11 2012 10:58 Darkfirex5 wrote: Well though i still think Anecletus seems the scummiest, but he does make a... point i guess about BioSC id need more proof though than to change my vote to him, ill keep it in mind when reading his posts. I still find this a weak bandwagon forming as i stated before, does anyone want to respond to my post before? (feeling ignored D: ) Wait, did I just read that? In the same post, two sentences right next to each other seem to contradict one another. That's odd. Let me explain if you didn't catch it. The first sentence: 1) Acknowledges that Anecletus is scummy 2) Asserts that Anecletus has a good point about BioSC The second sentence: 1) States that the bandwagon on Anecletus is "weak" 2) Wants someone to read his unsubstantial post from before Isn't 1) from the second sentence somewhat contradictory to 1) from the second? So yeah, I have another elaborate theory for you. I'll be your friendly neighborhood theoretic translator so that you can know what's going on in my head. Sentence 1: "Well though i still think Anecletus seems the scummiest, but he does make a... point i guess about BioSC id need more proof though than to change my vote to him, ill keep it in mind when reading his posts." Possible Translation if both Anecletus and Darkfirex5 are mafia: Anecletus is a goner at this point... but maybe there's a chance I can save him by lending support for his accusation of BioSC (which btw is complete BS). I'll say that Anecletus is scummy so that no one thinks I'm suspicious. Sentence 1: "I still find this a weak bandwagon forming as i stated before, does anyone want to respond to my post before? (feeling ignored D: )" Possible Translation if both Anecletus and Darkfirex5 are mafia: I'll now discredit the wagon on Anecletus in hope of saving him, but I can't outright support him without risking buddying. ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Now remember, this is only a possible theory. I'm just putting it out there so we can discuss it. Its only useful if Ancletus flips mafia, otherwise it's best to throw it out the window. tl;dr: I have a theory that darkfire and anecletus are both mafia. Read for the excruciatingly boring details. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
##vote BroodKingEXE | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'll be free to analyze all the posts in a few hours. Until then, I urge you all to scrutinize the people who jumped on the wagon(including me) with little to no explanation. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Is jailbreaker getting modkilled? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
wtf. Look at the facts guys. This guy completely switched the direction of a lynch on a scummy player onto a blue town. Yeah, he's been playing pro-town, but that doesn't negate the fact that his actions have led to a deficit in our numbers! If Anacletus flips mafia, austinmcc is nearly certainly mafia. Everything points to it. Buddying is already evident in Anacletus' posts but I'm going to read more to find a substantial argument in favor of this. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
BioSC -> Hyaach (jokingly) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#81 dahdum -> FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#82 Darkfire -> BioSC (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#84 Unforgiven_ve -> FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#86 BroodKingEXE -> VOTE FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#87 ShiaoPi -> Hyaach (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#89 dahdum -> Jailbreaker (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#92 dahdum -> VOTE FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#93 Ancletus ->VOTE FirmTofu (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#102 Ancletus -> FirmTofu (Semantics?) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#103 Hyaach -> Ancletus (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#104 Hyaach -> Ancletus (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#106 austinmcc -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#110 ShiaoPi -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#113 Crossfire99 -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#117 Crossfire99 -> Ancletus (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#118 austinmcc -> Ancletus (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#119 FirmTofu -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=7#123 ShiaoPi -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad play + Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=7#128 dahdum -> VOTE Ancletus (Bandwagon) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#141 BroodKingEXE -> Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#143 Darkfirex5 -> FirmTofu (Semantics?) -> BioSC (Bad Play?) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#147 Darkfirex5 -> Ancletus (Bandwagon accusation) -> Unforgiven_ve (???) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#158 Mufaa -> Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#167 BioSC -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#171 dahdum -> Ancletus (Bad Play) -> Hyaach (Bad Play) -> BioSC (Bad Play) -> Darkfirex5 (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#173 Darkfirex5 -> dahdum (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#176 dahdum -> BioSC (Defensive Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#181 BioSC -> darkfirex5 (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#183 FirmTofu -> Anacletus (Contradiction + Bad Play) -> Darkfirex5 (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#190 BroodKingEXE -> VOTE Ancletus http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#193 ShiaoPi -> Hyaach (Bad Play) -> Jailbreaker (Lurker) -> Darkfirex5 (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#194 austinmcc -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Bad Play, Contradictions, Semantics) -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#197 BroodkingEXE -> Jailbreaker (Lurker) -> BioSC (Defensive Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#205 BroodkingEXE -> austinmcc (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#206 Crossfire99 -> VOTE Anacletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#219 Anacletus -> VOTE BroodkingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#222 austinmcc -> BroodKingEXE (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#225 dahdum -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#228 BioSC -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#231 Mufaa -> VOTE Jailbreaker (Lurker) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#238 FirmTofu -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#240 ShiaoPi -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#249 Unforgiven_ve -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#250 austinmcc -> BroodKingEXE (Bad Play, later clarifies that he misread) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#251 Mufaa -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's posts) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#253 BroodKingEXE -> Mufaa (Bandwagoning) -> dahdum (Bandwagoning) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=14#264 | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
ANYWAY, that being said, here's a preliminary list of who *disliked* who on day 1. These suspect lists are based on who contributed to a full-fledged discussion when accusing these people, as opposed to just voting them. We can compare this to changed perceptions on day 2, if we have enough time. Main ACCUSATIONS for each player(Excluding bandwagon votes): FirmTofu- Anacletus and BroodKingEXE Darkfirex5- BioSC dahdum- FirmTofu(Later retracted), BioSC Mufaa- Jailbreaker BroodKingEXE- FirmTofu(Later retracted), Anacletus, Hyaach-Anacletus austinmcc- Anacletus and BroodKingEXE Unforgiven_ve- FirmTofu(Later retracted) BioSC-Darkfirex5, dahdum (Anyone who accuses him) Crossfire99-Anacletus ShiaoPi-Anacletus, BroodKingEXE Note: A single minded focus is more akin to town play because town generally are more likely to tunnel vision with limited information. Please let me know if I'm missing anything. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
The buddying is fairly obvious when they choose to attack BioSC. However, this is probably wishful thinking. dahdum has accused darkfire before, but very lightly. He has a lot more posts agreeing with him than disagreeing. If we make the assumption that mafia are more careful than that, we can sub out dahdum for one of these potential (lurk) candidates: -Unforgiven -Crossfire -Hyaach We can also almost make the statement that if darkfire is mafia, then BioSC and austin probably are NOT. This lynch would provide us information on two others right off the bat, and probably dahdum as well. Considering we have little time left, I am going to have to place my vote in support of this lynch. ##Vote Darkfirex5 A dahdum lynch would also be decent because it would provide us information on Darkfire and possibly Mufaa, but I do not think it is as beneficial to us as of right now. *crosses fingers* | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
vs. BioSC, Mufaa, austin? These seem to be the core alliances, but I can't seem to figure out which side is the right side. I'm going to stick with my vote for now. Sorry for all the grammatical mistakes in my previous post, I am trying to rush to fit everything in before the deadline. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 15 2012 06:41 Darkfirex5 wrote: At the moment, i think that BioSC, Anacletus, you and me are twonie. I'm townie and the fact that Anacletus stuck up for me, well now i know he is townie as well. This is pretty much the nail in the coffin for me. As soon as he starts getting pressured, he backs off of BioSC in order to save his own skin. If you remember back to Day 1, this guy was all out attacking BioSC and now suddenly switches his stance into him being town. I call bullshit. On May 15 2012 07:47 austinmcc wrote: I'll respond to that after the lynch I guess. We certainly need to start drawing inferences about who the scum team as a whole might be, but I dunno about those setups. Yeah, I just rushed through that. Give me some time and I can analyze it better. Maybe during night? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
This is all or nothing. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 15 2012 08:02 Darkfirex5 wrote: now Tofu has the suspicion he really wants me dead, at this point matters less becuse well ow you know he's scummy. I'm onto mafia and even if i pop town when i die you will know who to target. It's over for you mafia, also austincc any response? Consider this, Day 1 you accused BioSC of mafia with a single-minded focus then Day 2 randomly decided he was town. Then when you were about to be voted to death, you decided to lynch him anyway. How is that not scummy yo? If anything, your death should be attributed solely to you because you've made a very bad case for yourself. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I think Unforgiven is simply indecisive and that Anacletus and dahdum are playing very deceitfully if they are mafia. Another possibility arises with austinmcc and Anacletus as the pair of mafia because austin did essentially save Anacletus from a day 1 lynch. However, I think this is a bit more far-fetched. If you think I am mafia for my voting patterns, I do not blame you. I urge you to read my reasoning before coming to that conclusion. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 15 2012 08:19 austinmcc wrote: I'm going to walk away for some of this evening, because right now all I want to do is policy lynch. I will try and get back on and look into your thoughts on scumteams. Is your main train of thought right now a me/Bio + mufaa + crossfire team? Or is it me + bio + mufaa (from before the deadline)? Or me + anac + someone? Or...not me. I feel like you are prodding me so I can help you decide whether or not I would be a good kill target for you. Just a thought. My main train of thought right now is completely jumbled because I can't stand the fact that so many people were afk (me included). It's very hard for me to read the situation because of all the possibilities at hand, none of which are provable or disprovable. All I can do is draw connections between players and how they act, which is extremely limiting and hard to wrap my head around. I know there is probably a gem in these posts just waiting to be found, so I guess my best bet is to go through the filters again to see who is most likely to be mafia. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
1.Mufaa 2.austinmcc 3.Dahdum 4.Crossfire99 5.FirmTofu 6.Unforgiven_ve 7.BioSC 8.Anacletus 9.Hyaach We know a town will die tonight. To all you townies, you know that YOU are not mafia. Therefore, with 4 town and 3 mafia you will have exactly a 50/50 chance of getting the lynch right if you pick a random person that isn't yourself. Additionally, we will have to get it right or we lose. I want everyone to make a list of their top three candidates for mafia. We can cross-reference everyone's lists to figure out who might be lying. Here's mine in no particular order: 1) dahdum 2) BioSC 3) Mufaa | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Please contribute. It's perfectly okay if you think I'm mafia, just tell us who your three top candidates for mafia are. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 16 2012 10:58 Anacletus wrote: Vote for BioSC people! TT Do you have an argument for suspecting him, or are you just bandwagoning off of what dahdum says? Until you provide me with some credible evidence I can't just trust you like that. The only reason I have him on my scum list is because of his voting patterns and the single-dimensional nature of those who want him dead(mark of a town). It's more of a guess than anything based on evidence, but I'm willing to put myself out there for more information from others. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'll provide my thoughts after BioSC responds. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 17 2012 12:11 BioSC wrote: Perhaps I'm just new, but why would you need to wait to post your read on austin after hearing mine? Why don't you just post what you are thinking? Help get discussions going? Answer the question please. Why are you skirting around such an innocuous and harmless question? I will post what I am thinking in due time. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
BioSC has convinced me that he's mafia, I'd advise you to switch your vote back onto him. Mega-post incoming. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Back to writing megapost. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
For the record, I know Hyaach isn't mafia because I am one of the two people not voting him. I'm not mafia. That leaves at least one mafia voting for Hyaach. Would mafia vote for their teammate at this stage? Highly unlikely. Get your votes off of him asap before he flips town. Our best bet for an actual lynch right now is austin and he definitely is a much better one at that. I'm still bummed out that I couldn't finish my case on BioSC yet but for now: ##Vote austinmcc I repeat, get your votes off of hyaach. It's is highly unlikely he is mafia simply because of the amt of votes on him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:00 Anacletus wrote: Well that makes me look like mafia. No, it doesn't. You are always too hard on yourself. There are others in our midst who have much more to worry about than you do. I'll be dead by tomorrow, out of necessity for the mafia. It will be one less vote against Bio which I suspect is why they killed dahdum as well. Our vig is dead. Possibility of another blue role is relatively high(both dead blues are one-shot) but that person should not claim until Day 4. I suspect the last blue to be a medic and I would like to request heals. Not sure if this will work, but hopefully WIFOM sways in my favor. Thursdays are my busiest day, so I generally just read the thread on my phone between classes and post when I get back home. I'll be back home at 8pm PDT and I can post my case against BioSC then. As long as all of the town votes him, we can still win this game. | ||
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