Newbie Mini Mafia XIII

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FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 07 2012 08:32 GMT

#32

/in. Good times ^_^

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 09 2012 23:36 GMT

#78

Hi again dahdum! I hope you aren't mafia again ><

I'm all for lynching a lurker, but we should definitely wait a bit for everyone to have a chance to post.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 10 2012 18:56 GMT

#123

What... I said that purely in jest, teasing him about the newbie game that just completed. I didn't think you guys would go batshit insane over it.

On May 11 2012 00:23 Crossfire99 wrote:
He posted less than an hour into the day and he makes a reference to a previous game. I don't know what happened in the previous game, but it seems like dahdum was mafia and Firmtofu wasn't and that the town lost (I infer this from his little >< face). It seems like he is complimenting dahdum's play and hopes they are on the same side. What's bad about that?

As for his lynching lurkers stance, he was like one of the first posts, so no one really posted and it seems he was stating that we should wait to judge people until they posted. If people still lurked after a while then he seems to support lynching the lurkers. This isn't a terrible stance if I am interpreting him correctly, so I want clarification from him on this, though.

Crossfire put it best. dahdum was in a game before this and I just commented on how I hope he isn't scum again because he played well last game. I didn't think I was acting suspicious at all, but apparently it was? Regardless, we should switch up our votes onto some more scummy targets.

There are certain people that are playing very pro-town right now, but may be doing so just to gain the town's trust. It's extremely hard to tell from just Day 1 behavior, so I think our best for a lynch would be to hunt those people who are genuinely acting scummy or playing poorly.

Anacletus seems like the perfect target to start.

On May 10 2012 23:26 Anacletus wrote:
I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no?

But if he's town, shit.

This quote is suspicious, for reasons mentioned previously my numerous people. However, there is an interesting phrasing of words I find rather intriguing.

See bold. What motive would anyone have to say that sentence. Is it not already a statement of fact? Why did he feel the need to reiterate something that is quite obvious to everyone that is playing: If we lynch Tofu and he's town, then we are in trouble.

Well, no shit Sherlock. Generally when town people die, the mafia gets farther ahead.

Here's my theory. Anacletus knows I am town, because I'm not on his mafia team. Therefore, he knows if and when I get lynched, I will flip town. That statement is guilt insurance and a scum tell because of it. He is trying to insure himself now so that later, he can say "Aw crap, well I was wrong, but look at my previous post where I admitted I might be wrong!"

When town members vote people, they don't know whether they are right or wrong. When mafia vote people they know the exact alignment of the person they are voting. I believe this knowledge just leaked from Anacletus the mafia.

##vote:Anacletus

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 10 2012 19:10 GMT

#127

Not sure if I'm supposed to vote in a different format from the other newbie game, but I checked the rules and it says vote like this:

##vote Anacletus

Please forgive my terrible punctuation and sentence structure in my previous post. I only got 3 hours of sleep last night.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 11 2012 05:25 GMT

#190

Holy balls guys, calm down and think before you post for a bit.

You are all listing all of the people you deem suspicious AND least suspicious. Why? We only need to find ONE guy today and that guy is supposed to be BAD not GOOD. With all these lists of scummy to non-scummy, we are just giving the mafia advice on how to play better. Instead of showcasing your reads of EVERYONE, just tell us the reads of the people you think are scummy. You are doing mafia's work for them if you tell everyone who you think is the most pro-town. i.e. me.

That being said, I would like to shift our bandwagon because it's becoming a bit superfluous at this point, with a lot of the same points repeated and the same fail defense from Analectus.

Here's a post I found extremely scummy from a different person.

On May 11 2012 10:58 Darkfirex5 wrote:
Well though i still think Anecletus seems the scummiest, but he does make a... point i guess about BioSC id need more proof though than to change my vote to him, ill keep it in mind when reading his posts. I still find this a weak bandwagon forming as i stated before, does anyone want to respond to my post before? (feeling ignored D: )

Wait, did I just read that? In the same post, two sentences right next to each other seem to contradict one another. That's odd. Let me explain if you didn't catch it.

The first sentence:
1) Acknowledges that Anecletus is scummy
2) Asserts that Anecletus has a good point about BioSC

The second sentence:
1) States that the bandwagon on Anecletus is "weak"
2) Wants someone to read his unsubstantial post from before

Isn't 1) from the second sentence somewhat contradictory to 1) from the second?

So yeah, I have another elaborate theory for you. I'll be your friendly neighborhood theoretic translator so that you can know what's going on in my head.

Sentence 1: "Well though i still think Anecletus seems the scummiest, but he does make a... point i guess about BioSC id need more proof though than to change my vote to him, ill keep it in mind when reading his posts."

Possible Translation if both Anecletus and Darkfirex5 are mafia: Anecletus is a goner at this point... but maybe there's a chance I can save him by lending support for his accusation of BioSC (which btw is complete BS). I'll say that Anecletus is scummy so that no one thinks I'm suspicious.

Sentence 1: "I still find this a weak bandwagon forming as i stated before, does anyone want to respond to my post before? (feeling ignored D: )"

Possible Translation if both Anecletus and Darkfirex5 are mafia: I'll now discredit the wagon on Anecletus in hope of saving him, but I can't outright support him without risking buddying.

.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Now remember, this is only a possible theory. I'm just putting it out there so we can discuss it. Its only useful if Ancletus flips mafia, otherwise it's best to throw it out the window.

tl;dr: I have a theory that darkfire and anecletus are both mafia. Read for the excruciatingly boring details.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 11 2012 21:40 GMT

#240

I think Broodking's responses to the pressure are much more telling than the actual initial pressure itself. austinmcc is completely right that Broodking is the scummiest person alive now.

##vote BroodKingEXE

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 11 2012 23:27 GMT

#275

The terrible defense didn't exactly help his case. No roleclaim, no nothing. It was all around terrible play by him and I don't blame any of us for voting him.

I'll be free to analyze all the posts in a few hours. Until then, I urge you all to scrutinize the people who jumped on the wagon(including me) with little to no explanation.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 11 2012 23:56 GMT

#278

[g]Is Jailbreaker getting modkilled?[/g]

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 11 2012 23:57 GMT

#279

sigh...
Is jailbreaker getting modkilled?

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 03:09 GMT

#333

Sorry,. I was busy this weekend. I'm gonna go through the filters and write up a post.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 03:18 GMT

#336

Real quick, I'm not done reading, but I just had to quickly point this out. NO ONE seems to be questioning austinmcc at all?

wtf. Look at the facts guys. This guy completely switched the direction of a lynch on a scummy player onto a blue town. Yeah, he's been playing pro-town, but that doesn't negate the fact that his actions have led to a deficit in our numbers!

If Anacletus flips mafia, austinmcc is nearly certainly mafia. Everything points to it. Buddying is already evident in Anacletus' posts but I'm going to read more to find a substantial argument in favor of this.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:08 GMT

#360

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:25 GMT

#366

That took a fuckton of time...

ANYWAY, that being said, here's a preliminary list of who *disliked* who on day 1. These suspect lists are based on who contributed to a full-fledged discussion when accusing these people, as opposed to just voting them. We can compare this to changed perceptions on day 2, if we have enough time.

Main ACCUSATIONS for each player(Excluding bandwagon votes):
FirmTofu- Anacletus and BroodKingEXE
Darkfirex5- BioSC
dahdum- FirmTofu(Later retracted), BioSC
Mufaa- Jailbreaker
BroodKingEXE- FirmTofu(Later retracted), Anacletus,
Hyaach-Anacletus
austinmcc- Anacletus and BroodKingEXE
Unforgiven_ve- FirmTofu(Later retracted)
BioSC-Darkfirex5, dahdum (Anyone who accuses him)
Crossfire99-Anacletus
ShiaoPi-Anacletus, BroodKingEXE

Note: A single minded focus is more akin to town play because town generally are more likely to tunnel vision with limited information.

Please let me know if I'm missing anything.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:40 GMT

#370

With the vote changes of day 2, I believe the most likely mafia TEAM seems consists of dahdum and darkfire. Why?

The buddying is fairly obvious when they choose to attack BioSC. However, this is probably wishful thinking. dahdum has accused darkfire before, but very lightly. He has a lot more posts agreeing with him than disagreeing.

If we make the assumption that mafia are more careful than that, we can sub out dahdum for one of these potential (lurk) candidates:

-Unforgiven
-Crossfire
-Hyaach

We can also almost make the statement that if darkfire is mafia, then BioSC and austin probably are NOT. This lynch would provide us information on two others right off the bat, and probably dahdum as well. Considering we have little time left, I am going to have to place my vote in support of this lynch.

##Vote Darkfirex5

A dahdum lynch would also be decent because it would provide us information on Darkfire and possibly Mufaa, but I do not think it is as beneficial to us as of right now.

*crosses fingers*

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:44 GMT

#371

darkfirex5, dahdum, Anacletus
vs.
BioSC, Mufaa, austin?

These seem to be the core alliances, but I can't seem to figure out which side is the right side. I'm going to stick with my vote for now. Sorry for all the grammatical mistakes in my previous post, I am trying to rush to fit everything in before the deadline.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:55 GMT

#374

On May 15 2012 06:41 Darkfirex5 wrote:
At the moment, i think that BioSC, Anacletus, you and me are twonie. I'm townie and the fact that Anacletus stuck up for me, well now i know he is townie as well.

This is pretty much the nail in the coffin for me. As soon as he starts getting pressured, he backs off of BioSC in order to save his own skin. If you remember back to Day 1, this guy was all out attacking BioSC and now suddenly switches his stance into him being town. I call bullshit.

On May 15 2012 07:47 austinmcc wrote:
I'll respond to that after the lynch I guess. We certainly need to start drawing inferences about who the scum team as a whole might be, but I dunno about those setups.

Yeah, I just rushed through that. Give me some time and I can analyze it better. Maybe during night?

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 22:59 GMT

#381

Unforgiven, please vote Darkfire. This is our only shot. I believe AT LEAST 2/3 votes on BioSC are mafia.

This is all or nothing.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 23:01 GMT

#384

You have got to be shitting me...

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 23:06 GMT

#390

On May 15 2012 08:02 Darkfirex5 wrote:
now Tofu has the suspicion he really wants me dead, at this point matters less becuse well ow you know he's scummy. I'm onto mafia and even if i pop town when i die you will know who to target. It's over for you mafia, also austincc any response?

Consider this, Day 1 you accused BioSC of mafia with a single-minded focus then Day 2 randomly decided he was town. Then when you were about to be voted to death, you decided to lynch him anyway. How is that not scummy yo?

If anything, your death should be attributed solely to you because you've made a very bad case for yourself.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 23:13 GMT

#396

My mistake. My prime targets now are austinmcc/BioSC, Mufaa, and Crossfire99.

I think Unforgiven is simply indecisive and that Anacletus and dahdum are playing very deceitfully if they are mafia.

Another possibility arises with austinmcc and Anacletus as the pair of mafia because austin did essentially save Anacletus from a day 1 lynch. However, I think this is a bit more far-fetched.

If you think I am mafia for my voting patterns, I do not blame you. I urge you to read my reasoning before coming to that conclusion.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 14 2012 23:26 GMT

#401

On May 15 2012 08:19 austinmcc wrote:

I'm going to walk away for some of this evening, because right now all I want to do is policy lynch. I will try and get back on and look into your thoughts on scumteams. Is your main train of thought right now a me/Bio + mufaa + crossfire team? Or is it me + bio + mufaa (from before the deadline)? Or me + anac + someone? Or...not me.

I feel like you are prodding me so I can help you decide whether or not I would be a good kill target for you. Just a thought. My main train of thought right now is completely jumbled because I can't stand the fact that so many people were afk (me included). It's very hard for me to read the situation because of all the possibilities at hand, none of which are provable or disprovable. All I can do is draw connections between players and how they act, which is extremely limiting and hard to wrap my head around.

I know there is probably a gem in these posts just waiting to be found, so I guess my best bet is to go through the filters again to see who is most likely to be mafia.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 15 2012 00:18 GMT

#411

I'm not mafia, so Anacletus is wrong in at least part of his guess. I can see why he would think austin and BioSC are mafia though. I have similar suspicions

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 16 2012 01:55 GMT

#423

Some quick math for everyone.

1.Mufaa
2.austinmcc
3.Dahdum
4.Crossfire99
5.FirmTofu
6.Unforgiven_ve
7.BioSC
8.Anacletus
9.Hyaach

We know a town will die tonight. To all you townies, you know that YOU are not mafia. Therefore, with 4 town and 3 mafia you will have exactly a 50/50 chance of getting the lynch right if you pick a random person that isn't yourself. Additionally, we will have to get it right or we lose.

I want everyone to make a list of their top three candidates for mafia. We can cross-reference everyone's lists to figure out who might be lying.

Here's mine in no particular order:
1) dahdum
2) BioSC
3) Mufaa

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 16 2012 01:59 GMT

#425

I'm pretty sure I'm 100% dead by tonight because I can't see mafia killing anyone else besides austin. However, austin is suspected of mafia for his actions, so I doubt he'll be dying today.

Please contribute. It's perfectly okay if you think I'm mafia, just tell us who your three top candidates for mafia are.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 16 2012 02:04 GMT

#426

On May 16 2012 10:58 Anacletus wrote:
Vote for BioSC people! TT

Do you have an argument for suspecting him, or are you just bandwagoning off of what dahdum says? Until you provide me with some credible evidence I can't just trust you like that.

The only reason I have him on my scum list is because of his voting patterns and the single-dimensional nature of those who want him dead(mark of a town). It's more of a guess than anything based on evidence, but I'm willing to put myself out there for more information from others.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 16 2012 21:10 GMT

#435

Hey Austin, what do you think of BioSC? Would he be a good lynch? I'm on the fence right now, maybe you could share your thoughts?

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 01:55 GMT

#448

Hey Bio, what do you think of austin? Do you think he is scummy for leading the lynch on two townies? Do his actions seem contradictory to you? Why or why not?

I'll provide my thoughts after BioSC responds.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 03:13 GMT

#451

On May 17 2012 12:11 BioSC wrote:

Show nested quote +

Perhaps I'm just new, but why would you need to wait to post your read on austin after hearing mine? Why don't you just post what you are thinking? Help get discussions going?

Answer the question please. Why are you skirting around such an innocuous and harmless question? I will post what I am thinking in due time.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 04:38 GMT

#455

Anacletus, you aren't helping my voting yourself and it isn't winning you any town points. It just makes you look like a self-centered brat that doesn't want to take the time to defend himself in the face of an accusation and then wants to go, "I told you so!" when you flip town. I want you to unvote yourself right now and start playing the game because you aren't contributing anything of value yet.

BioSC has convinced me that he's mafia, I'd advise you to switch your vote back onto him. Mega-post incoming.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 04:54 GMT

#457

I didn't call you a self-centered brat. I said your actions make you look like one. It wasn't an ad hominem attack. To be clear, I think you are town and I do not see any benefit in lynching you aorn. Please unvote yourself before the two mafia decide to take advantage of the fact that you are voting yourself. You don't have to vote BioSC, just take off the vote on yourself for the time being, thanks.

Back to writing megapost.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 19:31 GMT

#471

I'm sorry I couldn't finish my megapost yesterday. I had a late night and some studying to do, so I'm going to get back on it now.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 23:33 GMT

#530

I couldn't finish it >< This is really disappointing. I've been swamped with work, but I really hoped to finish it by now. I'll only have a chance to post it during night so that at least the vig might be able to get the right guy.

For the record, I know Hyaach isn't mafia because I am one of the two people not voting him. I'm not mafia.

That leaves at least one mafia voting for Hyaach. Would mafia vote for their teammate at this stage? Highly unlikely. Get your votes off of him asap before he flips town.

Our best bet for an actual lynch right now is austin and he definitely is a much better one at that. I'm still bummed out that I couldn't finish my case on BioSC yet but for now:

##Vote austinmcc

I repeat, get your votes off of hyaach. It's is highly unlikely he is mafia simply because of the amt of votes on him.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 17 2012 23:37 GMT

#531

austin, if you want to prove to me that you ware town, unvote hyaach RIGHT NOW. I will unvote you if you do so and we can put up BioSC, who I think is scummier than you are. Please, quickly.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

May 18 2012 00:39 GMT

#538

I'm sorry TL time is a bit confusing. I might have to readjust the clock because I thought I still had a few minutes to vote.

On May 18 2012 09:00 Anacletus wrote:
Well that makes me look like mafia.

No, it doesn't. You are always too hard on yourself. There are others in our midst who have much more to worry about than you do.

I'll be dead by tomorrow, out of necessity for the mafia. It will be one less vote against Bio which I suspect is why they killed dahdum as well. Our vig is dead. Possibility of another blue role is relatively high(both dead blues are one-shot) but that person should not claim until Day 4.

I suspect the last blue to be a medic and I would like to request heals. Not sure if this will work, but hopefully WIFOM sways in my favor.

Thursdays are my busiest day, so I generally just read the thread on my phone between classes and post when I get back home. I'll be back home at 8pm PDT and I can post my case against BioSC then. As long as all of the town votes him, we can still win this game.

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