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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:22 layabout wrote: Nevermind risen is still responsible for the target changing. But look! BK "ninja" voted too and we almost missed it. No he didn't, as per my post above. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:25 layabout wrote: interestingly enough marv BK writes: and delivers us this: Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:39 layabout wrote: If he was follwoing through and asking for us to tell him stuff, then surely he should also follow through and either produce stuff and tell that he judges zephirdd to be scum and ottoxlol to be __>not as good a lynch a zephird<__ . Then place his vote on zephirdd. He should also do this when there is enough time left for people to assess what he says and possibly respond to it. His vote would then clearly be on zephirdd. It is as if he was reluctant to put his vote on zephirdd and only put his vote on at the very end. Consider the scenario in which BroodkingExe, Risen and Ottoxlol are all scum. Can you think of a more reasonable one? I think I'm not quite grasping your point of view. The way I saw things unfold were 1) Broodking outlined why he found Zephirdd scummy, said he'd look at ottoxlol/sentinel 2) Looked at Ottoxlol, didn't find anything, asked town about him 3) He didn't find anything convincing on Ottoxlol, so placed his vote on his stronger read from earlier (Zephirdd) Somewhere in this timeline is the failure to examine Sentinel as promised. It almost seems what you're saying is that he should have produced an anti-case on Ottoxlol? which I don't quite get. Primarily the dodgy thing is his total failure to look at Sentinel, no? Finally, to your trio - yes, it's entirely plausible. But it could just be connections that panned out that way. For example, you seem to think Risen and Ottoxlol are probably town. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I can still understand Broodking voting the way he did if he was town - express scummy thoughts on Zeph, voice townie concerns on ottoxlol, finally sees nothing for why he should vote ottoxlol and votes for Zephirdd. BUT - your narrative also makes sense. Whichever way you swing it, leaving it THAT LATE to vote is... well, it's a bit ugh. And it could very well appear that Broodking and Risen colluded to get Ottoxlol lynched, with Risen playing the weird switch-back card. It all boils down to this though - your narrative only makes sense if you believe Ottoxlol to be scum. If you don't, then it falls apart. You've expressed more than once that you feel Ottoxlol to be probably town. Is the sequence of voting at the end enough to now convince you that he's scum? Is that actually enough? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:40 layabout wrote: EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote: It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it. To elaborate: Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum. Ok, question for you: If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:57 layabout wrote: Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie? Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub). zephird gathered some votes. + Show Spoiler [aside] + MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates. I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephird wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised. by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon. When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did.+ Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch This all makes me so uncomfortable. None of what you say doesn't make sense, but it doesn't HAVE to make sense. If scum were analysing the situation, I think it was fairly clear by Mattchew's posting that he would favour Ottoxlol over Zephirdd. That only leaves you as the wildcard, although I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) you had expressed the opinion that Ottoxlol was a bit more likely to be scum than Zephirdd, although you believed them both to be town. It may well be possible that scum were trying to avoid too many people on the Zephirdd wagon, but your/Matt's votes cannot have been totally unexpected. We can also discount Ottoxlol's vote because town or scum he's going to vote to save himself. It strikes me as an incredibly risky play for them to bank on one of you two voting for Zephirdd, when the alternative is as it works out - Broodking votes superlate and Risen does his ridiculous switch shenanigans. In my eyes it would seem 'safer' for Broodking to put his vote on Zephirdd anytime between his 04:45 post and somewhere around 07:00, thus avoiding the possibility that occurred. And his vote wouldn't be shocking as he'd already called Zephirdd scummy. It would also assume scumteam came to the decision to save Ottoxlol with some desperate last-minute votes rather than bus him and try to get some towncred. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 03:52 ghost_403 wrote: Guys. Guys. Guys. Guys. Risen claimed scum in thread. There's no need for WIFOM about why he screws up the vote and ended Day 2 with us lynching a townie. The fact of the matter is he screws up the vote and ended Day 2 with us lynching a townie. That's the only thing that's important. I believe that the scum chose to do this in order to protect their KP. Risen rolled GF, Ottoxlol rolled scum. It makes sense that they would sacrifice Risen in order to protect their KP for one more night. Let's step back again away from all of the WIFOM and take a look at what happened yesterday again: 1) Town thinks Ottoxlol is scummy and moves to lynch him. 2) Town is ready to lynch Ottoxlol right up to the deadline. 3) Risen's vote stops us from lynching Ottoxlol. There is no reason for a town Risen to do this. Period. Therefore, Risen must be scum. The path ahead of us is clear. If you're a JK/Tracker, actions on Ottoxlol tonight. If you're a vig, shoot Risen tonight. Yes, it's all been rather WIFOMy, was hoping to get it out the way all at once while people were online. Your 1-3 points don't take into account that it was pretty close anyway. Plenty of town thought Zephirdd was scummy too. Regarding the bolded part: I had not considered that at all. That's quite an important distinction in this setup. The whole problem I have with all the reasoning from you or layabout is that scum could have made it so much easier on themselves by simply having someone vote for Zephirdd earlier on. I just don't get why they'd set themselves up for the potential situation that happened. It just doesn't make sense to me that scum would let it come down to the wire and then make a desperation move. Risen or someone else could have switched their vote way earlier and then all this discussion wouldn't be anywhere near happening like it is. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 04:29 layabout wrote: You don't think that scum would deliberately change the lynch target at the last second? Or you don't think that they would try to pass it off as a mistake? scum have done in the past, most notably + Show Spoiler [here] + In my first game of mafia TL Mafia XLVII The scumteam commit a huge voteswitch at the end of the day to kill Palmer and BC. A voting update was posted during the switch and as a consequence of that bumatlarge who had been part of the switch accused hum teammates of claiming scum in the thread. Some of them then did claim scum in the thread. The point is that it's possible but what I have written is possible too. You would have to assume that scum blundered massively by not putting a vote on Zephirdd earlier and avoiding all this. You also have to assume Ottoxlol is scum, and you probably have to assume Ottoxlol is goon for Risen to have saved him like that. That's a fair amount of assuming - much like you were uncomfortable making the opposite assumptions. Now, if we are going to lynch Risen, we should be very sure about lynching him on the basis of his entire play this game, not just the moment of retardation/scummyness at voting close. Because if Risen is scum, then we get Ottoxlol for free. So we'd better be bloody sure Risen is scum, because the benefits are so great and obviously town is in terrible shape if we mislynch. This means we have to lynch Risen not just on the basis of the vote swap, but his entire behaviour. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 04:51 Ottoxlol wrote: If I am scum, BK is town. If he were scum he would have voted before mat and laya so I wouldve lived without Risens help. Why would you even comment or speculate on this if you're town?! | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 05:10 Ottoxlol wrote: I pointed out that is a mistake in his argument. I think BK is town. If JK/Tracker thinks I am scum, pointing out the uselessness of tracking or jailing BK is good. The mistake in his argument if you're town is that you're town. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 05:16 Ottoxlol wrote: no, he says to jail and or track BK when if I am scum its worthless since that would mean BK is town. BK is town because... he was one of the deciding votes who saved you? No. BK could go either way. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
But in no way would the fact that he failed to do so clear him if you are scum. To repeat, his was one of the votes that helped save you. THIS DOES NOT MAKE HIM TOWN. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 07:26 Mementoss wrote: St.Daniel = Inactive BillMurray = Lurking imo Right, but that doesn't help us much one way or another. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 07:33 PaqMan wrote: Let's get some discussion going? I wish I hadn't voted for Zephirdd but I wanted my vote to count, and I had no support for Risen. My reason for voting him over Ottox was that I believed Ottox was just a bad townie. Ghosts's posts are good, they'e just about convinced me otherwise. Idk but it's also kind of strange how he keeps declaring that BK and Risen are town. There are numerous cases against Risen. If you're not confident about his alignment I suggest you read those cases and decide. And did he ever get more than one vote? During the day cycle clearly I will have to indeed go over the Risen cases and Risen's filter to make my own judgement, yes. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 07:50 layabout wrote: Generally this is correct. However, Please tell me if you think i am making a mistake in this post click, because the way i see it we can draw those conclusions and we would only be incorrect to do so if multiples absurdities had coincided and all of them are acting to the detriment of our glorious town. I've already given you other plausible possibilities. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 08:12 johnnywup wrote: Ok, but did you read my post? I don't think this voteswitching is alignment indicative at all. Just so... it can be a piece to fit into a jigsaw, but it can't be a case in itself. | ||
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