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TL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 116

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Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 03 2012 19:06 GMT
#2301
sentinel
if you're town, and matt no killed, i'm going to policy lynch you every game
you should not ever claim who you're jailing previously to jailing them, if you claim you're jailing town, mafia can just forgo their kill
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
May 03 2012 19:13 GMT
#2302
I'm not gonna be here for 5 hours, so here's a little gem from gonzaw:


If mafia claim vig, and claim to shoot a target, and then do so with their own KP, this can happen:
The Goon claimed vig, and he uses his KP to shoot his claimed target: Then he wastes his other KP. If he was real vig, then there would be an additional KP, but in this case there isn't. In this case he HAS to claim that the target of scum's KP got Jailed, which can bring problems to him depending on the real JKs, for instance if there is no JK he's fucked).
In this case, a tracker on him will watch him visit his claimed target
Also, in this case (if a tracker tracks him), they can't "shoot" someone, claim their shot failed and say his target was GF, because the tracker will instantly know it's bullshit.
The GF claimed vig and he uses the Goon's KP to shoot his claimed target: Same as above, but only the Goon will use his KP. So if a tracker tracks him, he will know he didn't shoot his target and will know he's scum.


I guess this means that maybe the GF's won't fake-claim vig, and the Goons will instead? In that case, if we ever lynch him, he will flip Goon and we will know 100% that he was scum when he's lynched.
If he was GF and we lynched him, since he would flip GF we wouldn't be 100% sure he was scum.


So to fake-claim, scum have to choose between:
Goon claiming:
Pros: Being protected from tracker's results
Cons: Not creating confusion if they ever get lynched. Having to rely on JK's to claim their shots

Godfather claiming:
Pros: Creating confusion if they ever get lynched,
Cons: Relying on JK's to claim their shots. Not being protected from tracker's results.

Cons from both of them: If they don't want to rely on JKs to claim their shots, scum have to fake a claimed shot on a target, and say that his target is GF after there is no kill the next day. This will lead them to a 1v1.

Weird Scenario that they can use: If a Goon claims vig, that night he can use his KP to shoot a GF; then the next day he claims that scum's KP was blocked by a JK AND that his target is GF. Trackers on him will see him shooting the GF, so that may "confirm" him, although it seems too wild (but well, I'm editing this post so I am free to put anything I want, so fuck you )



The point is that they have to choose, they HAVE to do something. We will force them to react to our plans, and hopefully they fuck up their plans/fake-claims and we catch them easily.


Matt is simply claiming vig because for Day 4 and Night 4, nobody ever seriously questioned me sans Risen. They might have had doubts, but in the end everyone just wrote me off as the townie without a doubt. This is problematic. Because if I point out one of their goons (say, BM was a goon), nobody has the sufficient defense to back me up.


Your argument is that I am admitting I was wrong about BM after pushing him all game? Thats it? You didn't know I was the vig, but you did know that I was actively pushing BM, this made him the perfect candidate, cause if you claim to jail BM and no kill occurs, you know that I will push for BM's death as hard as anyone.

Your plan failed because I know you are not Jailkeeper therefore scum held their kill on purpose to mislynch BM and win. BM is being painted red by scum because he was the easiest mislynch target.


My argument is that you just flip to this opinion with your fake vig claim. Before that, you expressed little to no thought that BM was a townie. You wanted to see him gone. People can be wrong, but you seem to not know that. Ghost and I pushed Ottoxlol with all our might but he was town. So why should you get a chance to be wrong if we do not?

And answer me this: If I were scum, what would be my incentive to choose Jailkeeper over Vig like Matt did? I could easily bullshit a case. I could say that Otto was GF and I shot him that night. Then we would have lynched Otto, Otto flips Town, I die tomorrow. The only thing Mattchew's scenario differs from mine is that he claimed during LyLo. There is no tomorrow.

And I didn't need you to push BM for me at all, because BM's filter sings for itself. You could have died Day 1 and BM would still have enough people supporting him to die. You just need to create some confusion to free Bill Murray.
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
Janaan
Profile Joined June 2011
United States381 Posts
May 03 2012 19:19 GMT
#2303
On May 04 2012 03:59 Mattchew wrote:
the second line is meant in response to where you say you'll vote risen if you believe me*

sorry, I could've sworn it was suggested Risen before Sentinel. Change that to Sentinel then
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 03 2012 19:42 GMT
#2304
ok sentinel, but the thing that refutes you is that I not only fakeclaimed vig yesterday, but gained suspicion of matt from doing so
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 03 2012 19:42 GMT
#2305
i still feel like you're town

i feel like the mafia no killed

i don't want to be a bad player

im voting matt
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 03 2012 19:44 GMT
#2306
to me it's 50% to lynch mafia no matter who I lynch

matt/sent <- 1 mafia probably, since it's a direct cc, but mattchew has more to gain here from his fakeclaim w/ lynching me
risen/paq/ghost/janaan <- 2 mafia here, leaning heavily towards risen/ghost
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 03 2012 19:45 GMT
#2307
wait, that doesnt make sense for them to claim matt shot risen if they are both scum
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 03 2012 19:54 GMT
#2308
##ignore bill murray

Mattchew's right, we should have lynched him days ago just to get him out of the game.

@BM: Of course the scum held their kill last night. If you weren't the goon, and Mattchew hadn't counterclaimed, they could have easily pushed the town to mislynch you. gg

@mattchew: One thing I don't get is why your theory makes Bill Murray confirmed town. There are three scum left in the game, and your theory only accounts for two of them.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
May 03 2012 19:54 GMT
#2309
Changing my vote to confirmed scum mattchew.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 03 2012 20:03 GMT
#2310
Why else would they fake jail him... I guess he COULD be scum but that would mean their whole team sent/risen/bm would be involved in this and that doesn't seem like it's very logical... I think logically sent's fake claim means bm is town
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 21:39 GMT
#2311
On May 04 2012 05:03 Mattchew wrote:
Why else would they fake jail him... I guess he COULD be scum but that would mean their whole team sent/risen/bm would be involved in this and that doesn't seem like it's very logical... I think logically sent's fake claim means bm is town


Okay so I don't believe you or sentinel. So I think BM would be a pretty good lynch. Him or Risen.
t(ツ)t
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 21:42 GMT
#2312
Actually I think you're right Mattchew. It doesn't make much sense.
I'm voting Sentinel.
t(ツ)t
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 21:45 GMT
#2313
But I don't like how BM switches his vote to Mattchew and Risen follows. So now Risen seems the better lynch..

Hmm. Decisions, decisions...
t(ツ)t
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 22:25 GMT
#2314
On May 04 2012 04:54 Risen wrote:
Changing my vote to confirmed scum mattchew.


How is he confirmed scum? Every time suspicion gets thrown onto you, you pull the RAGEQUIT card and stop playing. Yeah I'm not buying that bs. Your play the entire game has been scum play, so I'm putting my vote back onto you.
t(ツ)t
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 22:27 GMT
#2315
@Mattchew I do not completely believe your claim. I also don't believe Sentinel's. That said, I'm happy to make a compromise and lynch your other scumread, Risen.
t(ツ)t
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 03 2012 22:42 GMT
#2316
After the lynch Sentinel can jail BM again, which should result in no night kill and proving that his JK claim is true.
One of Mattchew or Sentinel is town so lynching either of them right now is dangerous. I fully believe we should take the third option and lynch Risen.

If Mattchew is telling the truth, Risen will flip godfather and we can proceed to lynch the remaining scum.
t(ツ)t
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 03 2012 22:54 GMT
#2317
@paqman: I fully support this, and honestly, I need another couple of days to figure out which one of them is town. Sent's town game has been lackluster and scummy the whole time. Mattchew spends a lot of time advising the vig to shoot, which is thinking outloud if you believe his claim. I dunno what to make of it, but I think Risen is obviously scummy, and would be very happy with that lynch.

We have Sent 'jail' BM again, which regardless of his claim leaves us in a pretty good location. We can WIFOM it over the night.

I think lynching Risen is the best option.

Sent, Mattchew, does this sound like a decent compromise to you both?

Also, we need everyone in the town in on this, or the scum are just going to ninja vote this away from us.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 03 2012 22:55 GMT
#2318
##vote risen
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
May 03 2012 23:03 GMT
#2319
We're at lylo and sent has said he jailed BM and there was no shot.. therefor lynch Risen. Makes sense to me. GG guys, we didn't lynch a single scum player this entire game.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
May 03 2012 23:04 GMT
#2320
Also, I like how in both instances of Mattchew being scum or Sent being scum I've ended up as the common thread being scum. How in the hell? Makes perfect sense. Completely logical.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
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