EPTYou also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job.
Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 4
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos Update on my Scummiest Players List: 1. Xatalos 2. Dittert 3. yomi 4. willz22912 | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
I have no idea what the best way of figuring out Dittert's and Xatalos' alignment is though. Do you have any proposal in what order we should approach the lynch? Our time is really running out, two mislynches and we lose the game so we better not make any errors; we must however take some chances. What is your opinion on the relative probabilities of Xatalos and Dittert being scum? | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
As for your last post, I agree that HiroPro is the most likely scum read out of them, especially with how zealous he was against Xatalos who is town by the above assumption. In the unlikely case that Dittert is scum, this makes especially much sense, where HiroPro desperately wants to dodge the lynch on his buddy by making a new case on a relatively easy target. And therefore, ##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
Well, first of all I want to emphasise that I was mainly "sheeping" Acrofales with that vote, because of his three-part analysis that seemed sound to me and proposed HiroPro as one of the possible lynch targets (but not Xatalos, whom I was voting at the time). This is what Acrofales wrote about HiroPro's filter: Acrofales wrote: Also, IF Hiro should flip town, we then have a real suspect in Xatalos whom Hiro crusaded against today so vehemently.Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos. Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection? Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not. Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks? Soft defense of Dittert? Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument. Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy. Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town. Could still be very noob town. Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii And this is, in a relatively short explanation, why I am voting HiroPro. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
At least we now have a pretty solid read on Xatalos. Also with that I'm off for the night, beginning work for my bachelor thesis tomorrow. Good Night! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote: @KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why. I'm sorry, just came back from uni (long day today, and probably the rest of the week too) and read up on the thread: I don't think as much as other people that Acrofales is scum. Mafia may be good, but I believe they're not good enough to make one of the top 2 town reads right now. Top After willz22912's post about Acrofales, he (again) set off a scum warning in my head, and looking back to his posting history I realised that the only reason I unvoted him once was that his defense seemed genuine at the time. Now it looks as if he has to defend himself once too often. I really have a bad feeling about him. yomi is still going strong as another probable read; he has seemed kinda middlish (between town and scum, rather on the townie side) for a long time, but I recently looked back at his Day 1 filter and boy does it look scummy. Looking at it again I don't really understand why town dropped him as the lynch for the day so quickly and went after BroodKingEXE. imallinson is in the reverse situation: He looks pretty scummy in his latest posts, but not so much before that. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however, since BroodKing and HiroPro were pretty much lynched on the same basis and I have absolutely no intention of repeating that. Dittert and Xatalos are not as suspect as during Day 2 coming from Acrofales' connection analysis, but they still have a way to go before being completely cleared in my mind. That's it for my nightly reads, if that leads to Acrofales getting shot in the end I apologize, but I don't think he's the one to be hated on right now. I will probably see you again no earlier than tomorrow because my university schedule is really stepping it up after spring break, but I think I can make one or two posts from uni computers. Go town! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 18 2012 04:06 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: and when I say "town continue without me", I mean in the case that mafia shoots me. If it doesn't I will continue my frenetic activity to keep everybody posting. KB: any take on HiroPro's will? And the night happenings? I have you as a town read, so stay active and fight the apathy! Think of Newbie VI: you started the game lynching two townies and fought back to victory! We can do this. Yeah I'm still awake and somewhat reading the thread so I may as well post as much as I can before going to bed. Concerning Hiro's testament: I already stated what I think of the Acrofales case, namely that I don't believe him to be a likely scum. About the Xatalos thing, I think he's still likelier to be scum than you believe Acrofales, but not as highly as Hiro put it ("Lynch first, ask questions later") He mentions Dittert once and I basically also think that your reasoning (shoot him tonight no matter what) is a bit better than what Hiro proposed (he said don't lynch which is technically a superset to your instructions but sounds as if we should keep him alive). | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 18 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure anymore about the Mafia read Acrofales had on yomi, but I certainly agree with Willz and funcmode. Let's lynch Willz now, though, since most can agree it's the best read we have at the moment. KharadBanar, why no nightly post? Did you have to go AFK at such a moment? Luckily you weren't shot though. What do you think of the dying posts of Acrofales? He was your best town read, so I put value in your opinion. Sorry about no nightly post. Spring break is over for me and I'm getting up at 8:15 AM again. I value my sleep schedule, so I went to bed before the Day post (I did address this in an earlier post). SO, without further ado because I didn't die that night, here's my thoughts on the situation: Acrofales being dead, we have to worry about who takes the initiative in leading the discussion and I'm currently not very comfortable with a potential scum member doing so in Xatalos (I don't think Xatalos should be our lynch since he's not the most likely of Mafia members, but enough so that I don't necessarily think him taking over is a good thing for town. I will be as active as I can while I can, during the [EU] day I will likely not be as active (read: probably not at all) because I'm at the university. vonKlaust, if you're reading this: make an effort and get active again, the town needs contributors now and you are probably the most towny player around besides me. If you make a thought out case, people are going to trust you, use that trust! About Xatalos, one last thing to note is that after willz' defense, Xatalos just attacked him further without addressing his defense. On this alone, I would argue that he's an even likelier mafia member than willz, but his activeness and general behaviour suggests otherwise. willz22912: He defended himself (again!) and while his reasoning is okay in that, I'm still very unsure because of how often willz managed to get himself in such a situation in this game: No matter how good your defense is, if you have to defend yourself too often, then in general it's because you scumslip often and I'm going to get suspicious. In willz' case, I'm very suspicious. His reads are okay though, making a good point about imallinson. About that: imallinson, where are you? You didn't do too much scummy, but you only ever contributed to discussion in easy ways, and it's not looking like you are making any attempt to get more active either. As a non-Dittert player, I expect better from you, and I'm slightly suspicious because of that since you look like you at least know what you are talking about, when you're talking. That concludes my morning reads; if you're one of my suspected players get out there and say why I'm wrong, if you're not get out there and scumhunt! This may be our final day, let's not waste it! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 18 2012 17:41 Xatalos wrote: Willz's defense is good, but if he's the Mafia leader, it would make sense. Everyone also keeps saying the Mafia team is good, which means they have superior argumentation skills (the average Mafia is more skilled than the average town in this game). I don't think I can beat Willz straight-on with logic and argumentation, but I'll try breaking his defense later when I have more time. Although I have more confidence in you than myself making him slip his defense right now... For now, I ask everyone to think about this: Willz is clearly one of the most skilled players in this game, yet his almost only pro-town contribution so far is his weak and forced case against BroodKingEXE. Does that make any sense for a town player? This argument about willz actually makes sense. You would think a player who can give such good arguments defensively would make better cases while he's not preoccupied with defending himself, or would actually make any good cases for that matter. As for you, your defensive arguments sometimes make little sense but then so do your cases. I'm not arguing that this is necessarily good play but at least it's consistent. Note that consistency doesn't necessarily make a player town, but inconsistency is a scum tell, and willz is guilty of it. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
You generally bring good arguments why you should not be considered as scummy as Xatalos here, but I noticed some details here and there which I'm not completely sure about: willz22912 wrote: Saying that too little defense is bad does not mean that more defense is always better. There is an optimum somewhere, and both of you have missed it by pretty much. Every sentence you write while being defensive could be used as a weapon against scum, instead of using it as a tool to escape your own lynch. You didn't really provide town with a better target after you were done with the initial defense, you let Xatalos do that job by making a good case against yomi (one of his real cases) which saved you.Comparing our martyrdom situations, I at least continued to be active and post while I was the majority vote, whereas Dittert saw himself as the majority vote and clammed up without providing any other useful information. Brood did the same thing with his scumslip and not even posting anything useful by the time he died. Both these actions were considered scummy enough to lynch for, but now you're lynching me for behaving the exact opposite way? willz22912 wrote: I'm actually saying this because you didn't have a whole lot of pressure on you on Day 2. Nobody ever voted for you that day, yet you pretty much only made some forgettable posts (I'm calling them that because I forgot about them; I had to read through you filter to find them). In hindsight after reading what you wrote there it makes quite some sense though, so I guess that's actually not too bad.You're going to say this is one of the good reasons why I should be lynched? Because I haven't provided town with good enough information, and I act constantly defensive because I have to constantly defend myself? I'm sorry but it's pretty true, it's hard to put up good cases under pressure, I can quote a post by Acrofales mentioning this. That said, mafia are usually the ones that care most about making their posts forgettable because they don't want to be in the spotlight, but they also want material to point to when they get suspected, so your Day 2 posts still make sense from a mafia point of view (clearly not only from there, I'm just considering possibilities here and that's not one to be discounted.) That's my advice for/case against willz. I haven't yet decided which of the two I should go with as I'm still very unsure of his alignment. Stay tuned for the next post, where I discuss Xatalos! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 19 2012 02:31 KharadBanar wrote: This is that post.Stay tuned for the next post, where I discuss Xatalos! I will take a different approach from willz here, because I had a very good defense post from willz to go from. With Xatalos, I am going to try to make some comments based on his general posting style which have been made before but need to be reminded of, and again they are meant to be good advice if he is town, but something for the others to consider as to if you're actually scum. My official opinion: I haven't decided yet whether to go with Xatalos or willz here. First off, some general remarks: One of the biggest problems I have with your posts is that some of them come about as giant walls of text. If you want people to trust you, they have to understand you first. If you want people to understand you, you have to make it easy for them. To make it easy for people to understand your posts, it would be advisable to post in a style people actually want to read. People want to read something with colour. People want to read something with weight. People want to read something with a pattern. People do not want a post which starts out decently only to devolve into a giant messy wall of text which their eyes can't follow and which is probably not all too well thought out in advance and has little to no interpunction and no paragraphs and just repeats itself over and over again and repeats itself over and over again and makes them want to stop reading at every corner because they are tired of making sense of your big sentence which grows ever longer and in the end has no real conclusion. You don't want to bury your important points inside a paragraph where no one will look twice because it's buried in between lines and lines of rambling which no one will ever get the gist of because you have preoccupied their concentration with making sure your sentence is actually grammatically correct and has all the right words in the right places to be actually still listening to what you are saying. Not all of your posts are like that. But if you really want to make something count, it will have to look more readable than for instance your defense against HiroPro. This has been alleviated somewhat in your recent postings, but I'm still writing about it here because I still think it is pretty damn important. Now about the implications of this: As I have said before but not elaborated too much upon in my post about willz, scum actually wants us to not remember what they said in their posts. This gives them the opportunity to say what they want first without you noticing it, then either cite it to hold it against you later or completely forget about it themselves and not have to worry about it. It also makes the town think "Yes, yes, this player is actually contributing" when in actuality all of it had no real meaning*. What this says about Xatalos I'll leave as an exercise to the reader. (Hint: It doesn't automatically make him scum, which is why I still haven't decided yet.) *INB4: If you're suddenly thinking "This man is a hypocrite! He said every post should carry meaning inside the game yet this has nothing to do with the game at all, it's just a posting style rant!", consider the following: Making yourself heard is an important subject in a Mafia game. If this advice helps you write more understandably in the future, more people will actually read what you have to say, and more people will actually understand it. Therefore if you take the time to have read and understood this, other people will take less time to read and understand your posts, and they can respond better to what you have to say. Reading this is not a waste of your time. Thank you for your attention. Everyone, get out there and post, and do so in a readable fashion! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
 It's pretty good, both contentwise and stylewise, but the last argument didn't really convince me. funcmode was probably in crunch mode and didn't think much about the posts he commented about when he wrote that. To draw a possible mafia connection there seems really arbitrary to me. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
This may sound waffly and bandwagony, but there are reasons behind it. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
So I went to bed yesterday thinking about how we, as a town, can decide whether to vote for willz or Xatalos. I slept, woke up today and went to the university. After a long day I come home and read through the thread and.... what? WHAT? WHY ON EARTH is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint me scum? Why on earth is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint ME scum, out of all people? Dittert is Dittert after all, but why ME and not someone more believable like imallinson? Or Xatalos? On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote: How could any self-respecting townie ever be convinced of "figuring Acrofales out"? This sounds like pretty bad invented reasoning to come up with some alleged "scum reads".Well, like the first night, I was convinced I had 2 of the 3 mafia figured out: Acro and Xat. On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote: So of all the people to investigate (apart from Acrofales, who you were "convinced" he was scum), you picked the most townie looking to test if he's scum?That left KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and iamallinson. To be honest, I wouldn't be 100% surprised if all three turned up as our mafia team. They haven't posted too much, but they also haven't really been accused on anything. Perhaps they've spent the whole game sitting back and allowing us townies to lynch each other. In the end, I just went on a hunch and investigated KharadBanar. Excuse me, but that sounds like a genuinely stupid move. It just does not make any sense. Coming from a generally underperforming player, your posts sound like a straight scum claim. At least if you wanted to distract town from meaningful discussion, you managed it. I'll give you that. ##Vote: Dittert | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 20 2012 03:51 willz22912 wrote: Please town, for the love of god ignore this bus, vote Xatalos, and if he flips Mafia, then the game goes on and we can easily verify my claims of the scum-team from the 100% confirmation we get from his flip. Especially KB, if you are town and Dittert is making his case up then you don't need to vote him this minute and can ignore him, choose between lynching myself or Dittert like the original D3 was going to be. Lynching Dittert when he's potentially getting bussed by his teammates is not the best town play we can make right now, either you believe my reasoning and lynch Xatalos, or you should lynch me because you believe Dittert is making a last second play to save me. However, how is Dittert making this claim "saving me" when he's tunneled me all game and I have defended him as well, creating an obvious connection between us. He also does nothing to deter suspicion from me, according to Xatalos if Dittert flips Mafia I should be the next obvious lynch anyway, how does this make sense if we're both Mafia, this is the worst plan ever if he's trying to deter attention from me to him, if anything he is creating MORE suspicion upon me so I become easier to mis-lynch D4. This actually seems like the sensible thing to do. The Xatalos scum bus reasoning sounds really smart, and I admit it's not very likely that you and Dittert would be scum together. Listening to Dittert at this point in time won't get town anywhere because if ANY of you votes for the wrong guy, mafia is all over him at the last second. Whatever happens, it is in your best interest to pretend the claim has never happened and not vote for either of us. I just hope this works out. | ||
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