EPTGlad we all agree on Therapist, at least.
##Unvote: Bocki
##Vote: Therapist
Newbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 2
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Glad we all agree on Therapist, at least. ##Unvote: Bocki ##Vote: Therapist | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
I’m inclined to believe Therapist’s explanation because it’s more consistent with the rest of his actions than him being mafia. I also have yet another attack on Bocki… ---------- Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard. Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable. Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game. Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote. ---------- Bocki’s analysis is suspicious, again. A good part of his post reads like a conspiracy theory, so I’ll concentrate on the rest of his attack, which is essentially one paragraph: (1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. (2) But calling investigating blueyd before... too convenient. (3) He probably chose these 2 persons because he voted on the days before the night he claims to have investigated. 1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why? 2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no? 3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation. ---------- To Nova and Lazin: I thought you two were townies, but if you’re ready to consider the possibility that Therapist is being truthful, you’ll have to also accept the idea that you two might not be on the same side after all. ---------- tldr: I have no way to be 100% sure that Therapist is telling the truth, but I’m leaning towards him being blue because it makes the most sense. Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well… ##Unvote: Therapist ##Vote: Bocki There’s my answer. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Lazin said: Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose. If we're both red and we did this, then that means the plan included either a) bussing me while other lynch targets were available (era) in a game with only 2 reds, or b) therapist switching his vote to last-minute save me, which would have aroused instant suspicion and provided a much clearer connection case than both of us voting together from the start. I repeat: Option B, which is what you and Bocki both think is true, would be extremely stupid play. In a situation where therapist and I are the reds, this option leads straight to our consecutive lynches. It just can’t be true. Lazin said: 1) Bocki never said now is the best time for a blue to claim (???). Quote a post if I missed something please. Bocki said: (1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. I interpret this to mean “we generally want blues to stay hidden most of the time, so it’s understandable that if Therapist’s claim is true, it only comes up now that he’s on the block: before was a bad time to claim, and after would be too late, therefore now is the best moment”. So, yeah, Bocki dismisses the possibility as “too convenient”, then admits it is consistent with good blue play in the next sentence. Scummy, scummy, scummy. You missed the goal of points 2 and 3 here: they are meant to attack Bocki, not to defend Therapist. I’m entirely aware that these do not make Therapist look more town-aligned, and that both explanations (red and blue) are an adequate explanation for these parts of his behavior. That’s the whole point I’m trying to make in that part of my post: Bocki never even considers the blue Therapist possibility. He just says “nah, can’t be”, and offers no explanation except speculations which start with what he has to prove: He assumes from the start that Therapist and I are red. This is tunnel vision. ---------- Lazin, that little message to Nova and you was mostly meant to not just rely on what the other is saying – you’ve both looked town-aligned to each other (and to me) for a while and openly said so, but neither of you is actually confirmed. I feel you’re taking us away from the immediate issue, which is “which of Therapist and Bocki is scum?” You’re asking me to find all the mafia right now when all we need for today is one. I don’t have a case against either of you right now and I have a busy day today (will be back home too late for the lynch; have access to a computer at my lab but will probably not be playing mafia much), so I don’t think I’ll have time to make the case you want me to do now. ---------- Here’s what it comes down to for me now: - My read on Therapist is 90% blue. - My read on Bocki is 90% red. - This leaves one of Nova and Lazin as scum and one as townie. Do I have a case on either? No, and in all likelihood I won’t today, but all we need right now is one red. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Lazin: I don’t know which of you and Nova is town and which is scum. I don’t have a case prepared, and I’m at work. Therapist: Since I can’t do it, try to look through the Nova and Lazin filters and make a case… Nova: What’s the advantage of a soft-bus with possibility of last-hour save? There’s none! Last-hour save from therapist on me would be incredibly suspicious given his branding me scummy. And the way Therapist ‘bussed’ me hardly makes him look more pro-town; he wasn’t the one making the attacks against me. I also have to disagree with your assessment of Bocki’s “good posts” – he’s predicting what I’ll do correctly to gain credit - that part works because as red I'd do roughly the same thing - and then calling said behavior scummy even though it's not. He hasn’t even taken a look at the blue possibility. Bocki: You’re scum! :-p Still, take a serious look at the blue possibility. Just for fun. Lunch break over. Be back in about 2 hours. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Lazin if you're town you have enough info to see that Bocki is a lot scummier than therapist. Both were inactive at the start but therapist gave us a plausible reason for his behavior, Bocki has not. When Bocki was asked to contribute he was almost angry about being pulled from the shadows. Bocki never had an original thought, he didn't start the attack on me and he didn't start the attack on therapist. Therapist basically started the defense of me, with a turnaround that can only be explained if therapist and I are both retard scum, or uncoordinated scum, or town-aligned. Bocki freaking scumslipped! If you're townie, are you seriously going to let all of this slip because you're convinced Nova is townie? Don't you wonder why Goss is dead instead of you and Nova? Might it not be because one of you is scum and the other is scumshield? ---------- This is realistically my last post of the game: - If any town dies, game's over. - If Therapist dies and flips scum, then that's the best framing job I've ever seen, and I won't even try to defend myself because it's useless. - If somehow Bocki gets lynched and he flips scum, then I'm confirmed town (only 1 mafia left, if it's me then therapist is blue as he says and he checked me so I can't be scum), therapist is hit at night for being a cop, and I'm still gonna have trouble picking between Nova and you. But at least the game goes on. At least you're reading and considering our posts. Nova just seems to be agreeing with Bocki here. ---------- I'm out of time. Unless stuff changes, GG scum. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Good job scum, especially you Nova. Bocki, well, from your first big reply I had you in my top 2 scum. Bocki should honestly have been an easy lynch on the last day. I still can't believe Lazin didn't see that. I WAS defending myself. My posts were probably too long, however. I'll probably switch to being less aggressive next game. As it stands, I manage to look like a tasty D3 lynch everytime. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
On April 11 2012 07:30 Nova_Terra wrote: blueyd, your posts were huge. I kept looking at them and deciding to only scsn through cause they made my brain overload haha. i think if you keep it a bit more concise there will be more success in your town play. My guess is a lot of people did that. It also gives the opportunity to people to pick and choose what they reply to, and to sum up my posts as whatever they please - "not defending himself", "bad logic", whatever it isn't. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
It was possible to have a setup with only 1 blue (33% chance), so if Therapist is red then the lack of a counterclaim doesn't mean there's a blue who isn't speaking up. There could just be no other blue. Next time I see people flagging each other as confirmed townies I'm gonna ask questions... This is what led to that situation where Lazin wouldn't lynch a pretty obvious red because that meant his 'green' buddy wasn't green after all. If there's one thing Bocki did well, it's distracting me from a lot of what was happening. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
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