Newbie Mini Mafia VII
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Lynch Nova_Terra instead. He's scum. He proved it last game.
On April 03 2012 01:39 imallinson wrote:
You seem overly defensive.
I'm just playing around before the game really picks up and I have to be more serious.
By the way, my name is BlueyD, and I've been a mafiaholic for... How many years already?
Nahh, this is my second game ever. My first game's filter can be found here: SNMM IX BlueyD filter
I was townie and was in the game until the end. We lost. You can see me both on the offensive and the defensive in there, so it can be a useful resource. I won't tell you how to interpret the filter; if you're curious, go see for yourself.
That's pretty much all I have to say today. Given that an inactive not voting on the last day caused our doom last game, I'm all for lynching the most inactive person unless a good case comes up. So, post your greetings and introductions, ladies!
Why do you keep talking about a previous game when it has no relevance? I find your actions interesting
Are you familiar with the concept of meta?
Here's the idea: It's sometimes possible to get hints on someone's role (green, red, blue) based on comparisons between the player's behavior in the current game and the player's behavior in previous games he has played.
So that's why you've been linked to my filter from my only previous game, and told roughly what happened to me there. This has relevance.
As for the lower part of my post and its reference to a previous game, said game was merely an excellent example of how an inactive player can make a town lose (by not voting, and by providing some hiding space for scum), and why we should in my opinion lynch one on day 1 if no better case comes up.
This is a pretty standard move in a game of mafia as well: Put pressure on people so that they remain active.
On April 03 2012 17:44 Nova_Terra wrote:
(...) The fact that we would prefer an info lynch over a lurker lynch is not an excuse to lurk >.>
It's no excuse, but it's part of the explanation for the lack of activity, the other part being it hasn't been 24 hours since the start of the game, and some people might not even know it began. But then again, we've got a lot of one-line heroes here.
It's the start of the game, you can't say "let's lynch on information" when you have no information, and you're certainly not motivating people to speak up when they could just shut up and give you no information to work with.
This is why people threaten to lynch on lurking at the start of a game, even when they'd rather lynch on info: this is how we get information to work with in the first place. Another way is to threaten to lynch on meta, but good luck doing that in a newbie game.
To those who openly say they like the idea of an info lynch: How do you intend to get that information in the first place?
To those who side with the idea of a lurker lynch so far, given the lack of info: Welcome to the club! Have a coupon for free coffee.
My reply of epic proportions to era's attempt to make a case on me (be ready for my first wall of text of the game, guys):
+ Show Spoiler +
That first post of Gossemerr you quote isn't just contradicted by what he does later on... But mostly, it's also an acknowledged metagame change!
I'm not sure what could possibly have brought that metagame change, either. The guy we lynched day 1 last game can hardly be called a lurker - It's true that he contributed nothing, but his presence was known and seen by all. He was a spammy town not a lurker, kind of like era this game. And one of the 2 lurkiest players in the game did turn out to be scum. That doesn't seem to justify a metagame switch at all!
Lynch him! Lyyyynch him! *diabolical laugh*
Ahem, I mean... I'm comfortable enough lynching Gossemerr on meta and info we have now.
It's true, as Gossemerr says, that his early voting does fit his meta from last game. He was also the first to put a vote on there.
Lyter flipping green really says nothing on Goss. If Goss hadn't put the first vote, someone else would have. Lyter was hands down the most inactive at that point, so the act of putting the first vote on him is totally fine by me.
And now, the bad...
Anyway, before I was for lynching lurkers D1, but I think my mind has changed. Lurkers are not really a problem D1 considering they have been town usually in my experience. I would like to make an educated lynch on someone who is leaning scum this time around, or a no lynch if nobody fits the bill.
What I don't understand is why he went "okay guys, I've got a new stance on lynching lurkers this game!" with an explanation that made no real sense, and then just acted the same way he did last game anyway (as he brings up himself). That's where the contradiction is for me.
That's not a very heavy case, admittedly, but on day 1 it's difficult to do a lot better than this.
Please note that my reasons for this flip were different than the 3 other guys', though they sprang from the same Gossemerr post. Awaiting his defense now.
Gossemerr, I'm being attacked for making jokes now, really? I'll tell you, there's two reasons I'm making jokes. First... it's fun! Second... I wanted to see who jumped on them to try to make a case look better than it is. Grats, you did.
- OMG Goss says he doesn't want to lynch lurkers and then puts a vote on me for lurking!
- Goss says he's meta-switching and his reason makes no sense to me
- Goss then seems to revert to old meta despite saying he'd change
Are they the same? Lyter's reason and my 2nd reason are similar, I'll grant, and I'm ready to accept your defense against it: you were just pressuring. Do tell us you're ready to switch your vote away if he posts something of quality next time you pressure-vote, however, not just "Gotta start somewhere." Not switching afterwards is entirely justifiable as well given the situation: gotta save your own skin.
The first still looks to me like something scum would do, and that's the bigger one of the two for me: You suddenly decided lynching a lurker is bad, when one of the big 2 lurkers was scum last game. Explain. You haven't even come close from doing so, instead choosing to attack me on jokes.
Therapist is another suspicion for reasons already mentioned by others, but I'll add my weight in asking him why he switched if he thought both votes had equal value. I'll add that he was lurker #2 on my list before the vote, so he really needs to pick up his play.
imallinson, let's be honest here: you can't play neutrality in this situation. There were two likely lynch candidates, and they were tied. You're the tiebreaker! You owe it to the town to examine both cases and pick who dies, because one of them will die anyway, and your pick won't.
Instead, you went "nope! not getting into this". This is an "avoid blame" move, not a "find the best lynch" move. I can understand the initial switch away from Lyter, who suddenly had a better post than a lot of people in the game. I can't really understand not switching back to either him or Goss once you knew that one of them would die.
I would imagine last game is what makes the difference in your views on lynching lurkers, hence why I'm not looking at what you've played before that. If the defining events had happened before that, then your stance would also have changed before that, and you wouldn't be saying "I've changed my mind!" this game. If at least we had lynched a 'hardcore lurker' last game and he had turned out to be townie, then I would have understood you're changing due to an accumulation of events, with last game at the turning point.
But the guy we lynched wasn't a 'hardcore lurker', to use your term. He posted a lot! I would say our 2 D1 lynch candidates (both townies) were on the chopping block due to terrible play (useless lists, spammy 2-liners, bad logic, strange voting pattern in one case, etc), not really due to lurking. They had legit cases on their butts day 1, unlike lurkers that just get lynched because "well, he's not posting much at all". Meanwhile, one of the 2 hardcore lurkers that game turned out to be scum after all.
So that's why I keep 'repeating': I'm not entirely satisfied with 2 parts of your explanation.
1. The part where you consider games other than the last, which couldn't possibly be the catalyst for your switch now.
2. The part where you describe last game's day 1 as a lurker lynch when it wasn't.
Nova might call this a 'tiny part of your metagame' but it still seems strange to me.
The important part isn't the jokes, it's the analysis. I'm more at ease this game so I let myself joke around a little at the start/end of posts, but otherwise I would imagine the core of my posts - what you're supposed to be looking at most and taking seriously - looks about the same, and I'm still scumhunting actively.
A reminder to others that Gossemerr is not my only suspicion, and the town will quickly scope in on you if you're trying to hide or posting only fluff. Goss has an advantage over all of you guys: He's active. I'll try to take a look at our less active players tonight.
I'm out for now, back later.
It’s funny that era sees this, identifies it… and then goes “nahhhh, that can’t be it”, when to me that seems to be exactly it.
On era: For that post about the scumhit, era went through imallinson’s filter in a whole 15 minutes and brought out all the important parts before dismissing his own findings. It’s hard for me to believe that he 1. has the skill to see that by himself and bring it all out in a relatively short time, yet 2. is so bad that he dismissed it all when he was right on the spot. That's a very small window of skill... Which makes me think he might have known what to look for ahead of time.
In general, it’s as Nova says: This guy is obviously paying attention to the game (rules, filters, thread), but then he turns around with mostly one-liners, and he’s using so much WIFOM/bad logic it’s almost a parody. He’s a very tempting lynch indeed.
On the lurker side, my pick for “needs to step it up” at this moment is our friend Bocki, whose filter is devoid of any analysis made by himself, and who no one seems to be talking about so I gotta bring him up. I see 3 things in there:
-Proposes a mathematical post-counting method for determining who the biggest lurker is
-Votes for Lyter, like everyone else
-Some generic stuff about roleclaiming
- Listens to Goss about me, then says “yeah”
There’s a lot less spam than era there, but there isn’t more content. I'm not sure there's any content, really, and yet no one pays attention to him and he flies right under the radar.
Firstly, you are not really scumhunting, all you do is suspect Gossemeer. Yes, you noticed Therapist and iamallinson in 4 lines, but the majority of posts is against Gossemeer. Is can not really be called scumhunting.
Why not? Am I supposed to spare my time equally among everyone, even those I find less suspicious? I wanted some info on why Goss was switching metagame, so I had to spend some time on him, and no one else was talking so it’s not like I could analyse anyone else’s stuff. For instance, you had to be called out before you even posted an analysis of your own.
After noticing iamallinson's indecision to vote for either lyter or gosse, you now say that it was obvious blue play. How come you didnt say that before? Instead you now blame era for reading it before and then dismissing it. Thats almost as if you slipped a little disappointment that era did not come through with his opinion that iamallinson was blue. But who else but scum wants to know who is blue?
Why didn’t I say that before when? I said it in my FIRST POST AFTER THE HIT. Am I supposed to mention he looks blue before he gets hit? I’m not gonna call out a blue before he gets killed, that would be the scummiest thing to do.
And to be honest, I also didn’t notice he looked the bluest of all of us before the lynch, I saw it after the fact while looking at the filters and era’s post. Why didn’t I see it before? Because I was looking for reds, not for blues. I also never said he looked obviously blue (I could only see it myself after the fact), I said I could see how he would be the mafia’s strongest blue read (aka bluer than the others; they were probably actively looking for a blue), and that’s likely why they lynched him.
On my personal accusation: Yes, I did not post very much on Day1, since its impossible to really read something on D1. I took on the mathematical reasoning because it was at least an indicator. Sure, it did not go well since that killed a townie, but since we had to vote, I would rather use a mathematical approach than something like jokes. Because then, you would have been higher on the list. Well, maybe that would have been the better choice...
Gossemeers case against you was good, so I didnt have much else to say but "yes, that is a good case." Now, since you pratically pushed me for it, I had to write my own analysis of your behaviour. But thats okay, since it is true that I did not make a case until now.
1. The main reason it was difficult to read much on day 1 is that people like you weren’t posting. You’ve got your causality backwards.
2. I didn’t “practically” push you for it, I downright pushed you for it. And you sound like you wouldn’t have written a case if I hadn’t pressured you. You didn't do it to help town, you did it because you 'had to'? That’s scummy.
The rest of this is you trying to justify not posting much/posting fluff.
As a summary: I think BlueyD is trying to make gossemeer look bad, constantly attacking him. Why, I cant say, maybe he's townie and read something in gosses posts that I didnt see, or he is scum and wants us to lynch gosse so he can choose another target for a nightly kill. Maybe it's because gosse has made some good analysis about BlueyD and he wants to get rid of him. If it's about that, I think his next "victims" will be lazin or nova.
That’s shoddy logic again, I attacked him before he attacked me; He even defended my jokes as obvious jokes in his early posts, before changing his mind on that only after I attacked him. I could easily have backed off earlier than I did and looked less suspicious if I had wanted to, especially since I wasn’t getting much of a following there, but there’s info I wanted, so I had to push him to get it.
What annoys me most about Bocki's post here: Bocki’s is not apologetic about his inactivity at all! Instead, he seems a bit angry that I’m bringing him out of the shadows, as if he wants to stay there.
My case against Gossemerr hasn't gotten any better, and standards are higher on day 2 than on day 1. What I have is insufficient for me to vote for him.
Bocki's defense against my lastest attack is decent, though no more. What he says (didn't post his case because he thought it was a bit weak, wanted it to be stronger before he did and got rushed into it) is plausible. His vote for me feels a bit like an OMGUS, but it does seem plausible that I would have been his best read already, with the whole Gossemerr thing I seem to be the only one to be getting.
era's play is maddeningly unchanging. He's tunneling, short-posting and WIFOMing all over the place, even after people have pointed it out. The only question is: Horrible townie, or horrible mafia? It is my opinion that a horrible town would at least learn to be less awful after a few days, and actually help the town in some way. This guy hasn't. The one insight he got (and I have difficulty thinking it was really his), he actually dismissed.
I want to congratulate LazinCajun for posting a very convincing connection case. I took a quick look at therapist and era's filters and in my opinion it support the case as well. I'll do a deeper analysis if era turns up scum.
I knew from the start of the game I'd be playing aggressive and posting a LOT of content, hence I knew I could get away with some jokes, and besides, it's fun for me. And of course, if you see someone just trying to point out the jokes and ignoring the actual analysis I'm doing, then that certainly is scummy - they're focusing on the WRONG things.
If I end up being lynched, I'll flip green, you'll see the joking wasn't scummy after all... and you should get some info from this. Please go back through the thread and see whose attacks on me make some sense and whose attacks are silly.
- era jumped on me before there was any case to even be started and tunneled me so hard, of course he was going to mention them.
- Goss changed his mind halfway through. At first they didn't matter, then suddenly they were a good part of the case. You would think he could make a case against me without the jokes if there were a case, given that he didn't think there was anything scummy about it at the start.
- Bocki didn't comment on them until I pressured him, so it's hard to tell. Might just be OMGUS really.
- Nova's behavior about them seems totally townie: comments a bit but mostly makes sense. Lazin doesn't get distracted by them at all. Even Therapist doesn't comment on that and relies on something else for his vote on me, though he's suspicious for other reasons.
"I wanted to see who would jump on them to try to make a case look better thank it is" you want people to accuse you, dismiss it because you were just joking. Wasting time and confusing people.
No, era, that is once again not what I said. You have to read this not as "hurr durr, let's get people to accuse me by making jokes!", but as "it's a reasonable assumption that I might have accusations on me at some point during this game, especially with my aggressive style... so let's see who sticks to arguments that seem reasonable, and let's see who tries to make the case look stronger by pointing at the jokes instead."
As for Gosse, funny how much he was posting while he actually had a case on him, and how quiet he went the minute it got put aside. Heh.
Still, this hurts.
On April 09 2012 07:00 Bocki wrote:
I myself know that I'm not town and I share your view of Lazin and Nova. But lining up gossemeer with me is strange, since he would have been the one that would have been lynched if we would have gone through with my mathematical solution. It was his luck that he started the bandwagon, because I think that if anyone would have started a bandwagon and said "yeah, lets do it, i vote gosse" (which was a really high probability), I would have killed my supposed mafia compadre on day1. That wouldnt make sense.
My read stays on BlueyD. He's only been half-heartedly defending himself against me. He is attacking gosse the whole time, attacked iamallinson for not speaking up in the first lynch vote (which would have sent gosse to the guilotine) and so on.
I know, I might be focused on him, but he still is my best read.
First sentence. "I myself know that I'm not town and (...)" This is the scum slip to end all scum slips.
Well I didn't expect to find that. I need to read more and write less! XD
The case I had on him is below if you still want to look.
Whew, had a long day, and I come back home to see myself as the #1 lynch target, unsurprisingly.
My reads (not entirely thought out, as I haven’t had time to look at all the filters): Nova is most likely town, Lazin feels like town, Therapist doesn’t feel like much now because I haven’t analyzed him in depth, and Bocki is almost 100% scum.
So I’ll just reply post about Bocki for now, and do the rest tomorrow.
I’ve already put an analysis out on Bocki, and much of it still stands. The biggest problem: The only time he gave in-depth analysis he did so reluctantly, after someone (me) pressured him. Only 2 lines that could be considered analysis on me from him today are analyzed below, and the rest of his attack rests of his attack is the stuff I’ve already replied to.
Bocki said: He's only been half-heartedly defending himself against me. He is attacking gosse the whole time, attacked iamallinson for not speaking up in the first lynch vote (which would have sent gosse to the guilotine) and so on.
1. I think my defense is more than half-assed, might be just me. What does Bocki want, even longer posts? I’m already taxing your attention enough, I think. Heh.
2. Unlike Bocki, I’ve aimed at more than one person. I’ve attacked Gosse a lot, but I’ve not spent “the whole time” on him. Bocki knows this, as he points out a jab I took at another player in the very next sentence, so this attack is unwarranted at best and a lie at worst.
3. iamallinson could just as well have put his vote against era, not sending gosse to the guillotine, so that’s another lie by Bocki unless he just failed to consider this possibility. I was only unhappy with his decision to ‘stay neutral’ even though he was the scale-tipping vote. That was not a scummy move by me, despite what Bocki tells you.
So, everyone that attacked BlueyD is dead except me. He probably didnt want to make it so obvious.
1. That statement isn’t really true. Therapist voted for me yesterday, and he’s still alive. You’ve got a fun “except me” there, it seems I’ll have to remind you that yes, you count too…
2. Here’s my problem with this logic: Let’s assume I’m mafia and I want to hit someone without getting suspicious, yet I also take out a vote against me… then Why is Bocki alive? Gossemerr acknowledged, yesterday, that my defense was “pretty good” and that he wasn’t quite ready to vote for me “until I [Goss] can prove with more persuasion that he [Bluey] is scum.” I had heavy pressure on me from Goss, but not a guaranteed vote, and him being hit guarantees a bunch of fingers pointed at me due to our drawn-out argument while also taking out a vote that, while it was coming at me, was not unflexible.
So why not Bocki instead? My arguments with him were much shorter and less memorable, hence I was going to catch a lot less immediate flak if he was hit than if Goss was. And yet, Bocki was tunneling me a lot more. His vote was actually on me D2, and I’m the only one he analyzed in depth. It was 100% obvious that this guy’s vote would fall on me today, and despite what he says I don’t get the impression anything I could possibly say can change his mind.
And notice how Bocki doesn’t even wonder why Goss was hit over himself, just dismissing that possibility with an “except myself”… Maybe he already knows he can’t get hit?
Here’s what you have to pick from. Either:
1. Chaotic dice-roll: I’m not relevant to the hit at all, and Goss was chosen without consideration for the Goss-Bluey link – but I don’t think this is realistic. This hit is 99% sure to be related to me, either because I’m scum or because I’m the easiest target to frame.
2. Sudden IQ gain: I’m scum, I and hit for the reason Bocki mentions, but chose Goss over Bocki anyway because I’m an idiot. Then I drank some Red Bull or something, and now I’m coming up with clever and true-sounding analysis (if you disagree, do explain) on the spot to save my neck.
3. Bluey-is-a-genius: WIFOM version of #2 where instead of being an idiot, I’m so smart I anticipated I could use this defense. Thus, I hit Goss to frame Bocki. In theory this is possible, but it’s also a bit far-fetched. If you pick this, town loses, but I admit l might feel a bit flattered that you think so highly of me.
4. Bocki-can’t-hit-himself option: According to this option, Bocki is scum and he wanted to get an easier townie to lynch on D3, hence why he tried to link this hit with the most scum-looking target at the moment, which is me. If I’d been scum at that moment and I had wanted to hit someone who would certainly vote for me D3 while not attracting too much attention, the best hit would have been Bocki. Scu, failed to consider this because, from their point of view, Bocki wasn’t a possible hit target to begin with, and so the honor fell to Goss.
I would think if the phone is causing screwups, you would read the sentence again once it's written to make sure it says what you want to say and there's not a german word somewhere. Either Bocki didn't for some reason, or he did and his mind skipped over the first sentence, seeing nothing wrong with it at first glance.
That is indeed a very funny scumslip, but it's still a scumslip. Consider it in the wider context of Bocki's generally sheepish behavior... That is MORE than enough for a lynch.
If this slip somehow counts less than my jokes in your mind, then maybe it's time to reevaluate more objectively.
Really? You don’t see why I’m alive? My best 2 reads (era and Goss) on day 1 flipped townie, so we know there was no reason at all for scum to hit me night 1 while they were both still alive: Scum knew I wasn’t targeting them so I was no danger. On day 2 it became clear I would be the easiest day 3 lynch target, so scum was obviously going to save me for that lynch and hit someone else night 2. There's zero reason to suspect me due to my alive status.
Well I meant to add a section on Therapist here, because he’s my second scum read, but I see Nova got there ahead of me and it's pretty good. The filters show me why I wasn’t getting a read on him: he has about zero content. His last post is the most telling by far.
It is EXTREMELY suspicious that he voted for me day 2, but then turned around day 3 and told people not to bandwagon without explaining AT ALL why he completely turned around, and made it look like I was under zero suspicion for him which is entirely unrealistic. He has this fun habit of voting before and not after an analysis (if any), which to me means he might have interests other than town’s.
I can’t wait to see what Therapist posts next.
Bocki and Therapist are my scumreads.