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On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote:
Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us.
You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked?
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Okay, BillMurray's statements on this page are beyond retarded. I have nothing else to say. How are stating hypotheticals scumslips? How is MrWiggles' rolefishing beyond your grasp? /ignore BillMurray.
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EBWOP: WTF are billmurray's pops about???? /cryinacorner
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On April 05 2012 03:15 Cephiro wrote:
@ Acro: I am not OMGUSing, you are just claiming that I am. I have provided fair reasoning for every single one of my suspects except you so far, and I am going to provide that analysis on you as well.
Fair enough. I was extrapolating from the lack of a case on me. I will go over your filter again (better) later. I remember your analysis before today being pretty good, but it got lost in the plan stuff.
" if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering)."
This is what you say. I have told everything I can which doesn't give the scum enough idea how to counter-measure my power. You keep asking me for everything, but then you keep pointing out to leaving out the details if it means that scum can't interfere. This is the point you constantly keep bringing up, you want to know DETAILS about my plan. I have told everything I will tell, deal with it. If there was a mason possibility, I'd gladly explain the full extent of my plan to certain people via PM, but unfortunately that's not possible.
To be completely honest, at this point you personally cannot convince me to go along with your plan. I admit that WBG's 4 cases post made me think.
If your basis on not pushing me to the flames is that I could be scum with a superpower that extends the flames (that would still leave me there, wouldn't it?), then you're on thin ice. How about you start thinking rationally and don't do stuff because your scared of something that is extremely unlikely. How about you don't PoP at all today because someone could have an ability that kills you when touched?
Lol. Nice straw man argument.
We could pull to kill syllogism, yes, and I would be fine with that too. My plan however is much more beneficial for the town regarding a similar amount of PoPs (unless syllo happens to be right at the bottom again, and I am really far from the flames).
My scum reads are also not "Everyone who is against my plan = scum". If you paid more attention to my posts, you would know that I have provided fair analysis based on other stuff than opposing my plan, you're just outright lying here to make me look bad.
You ask me to make cases on other people than syllo. And I have, but you choose to ignore them and claim there aren't any. That's just pathetic.
As for my ability, I can kill any scum I want, but the amount depends on the circumstances. Happy?
Okay... that is pretty damned strange, but okay, fair enough. You finally answered a question in a different way than "it benefits town".
As for your analysis before today: it impressed me. It is your plan today that has me jitterish. You are still 50% of what's left of risk's DT check and I am unwilling to trust you, more so because of the way you push this plan.
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On April 05 2012 03:25 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:19 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote:
Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us. You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked? You could make that argument about anyone who is scum, but then how would we actually kill them? Remember that if Cephiro could do something bad by getting to that zone we'd probably have to deal with it somehow anyway, at some point in the game. He even said he'd be fine with pushing syllo instead. Occam's razor dictates we should just push him, because in all of the circumstances it's the simplest answer. Our only problem would be nullfication, but that would happen even if we pushed syllo instead, I'd bet.
Well, we could always pull him off the bottom. Anyway. You're making some sense now. I'm gonna go shopping and read Cephiro's filter again when I get back. I still don't think I'll help out, but I'll try to give the plan another shot and try to read it without paranoid glasses. More people whose judgement I trust posting would also help.
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Okay, I did the shopping and some of the cooking, but not done yet. For the record, I disagree that BM is scum. I think he's just dumb. He's not even particularly bad (not like Bluelightz bad anyway), just dumb. I don't think we'll miss out on anything by lynching him, but I'd rather lynch scum.
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Taking my ipad to the kitchen to read cephiro's filter. We also probably need to wait for ace to confirm pushes/pulls before doing anything. He hasn't posted since BM's derps.
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Okay. I have given Cephiro's filter a very quick read through and I am no longer so opposed to his plan. However, I don't feel much like cooperating. I would like to make a new case on Cephiro, acting as if risk.nuke's traffic light didn't happen but that takes time. How much time do we have?
If I go along with it now, I am basically only doing it because WBG thinks it's a good idea and I have a town read on WBG. I don't much like that reason.
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EBWOP: to clarify, by leaving out the traffic light, I use only my own reads, rather than having them biased by the game mechanic.
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Okay, a pretty quick case, because I don't have time to write it up properly. Have to go to dinner.
Pros:
townie posts on first day: good catch on cascade. Also agrees that Mattchew has so far done nothing of note (agree with both reads).
good questions and pays attention to the game.
helps the Palmar rescue attempt after nullify is confirmed (and Palmar is town).
response to prplhz' criticism of the case
neutral:
initial case against prplhz doesn't convince me (but I'll read prplhz's filter better later. so much homework for this game /sigh)
Cons:
excessively paranoid about Palmar (lol, and now I'm paranoid about him. The irony is strong here)
lots of useless filler, including many (useless) affirmations that he is town and a bitch-fight with syllo.
even after nullify, trying to cast suspicion on palmar.
Then, the plan. It's still a null read with scummy tendencies to me, but if I read it from the assumption that Cephiro is town, then it looks okay. I still don't like his insistence that the nullifier cannot touch him, but I have to admit that overall the town reads are stronger than the scum reads. Risk.nuke's red light might have biased me too far.
I am still cautious, but willing to go along with the plan. It's dinner time now, but if you want my push afterwards, I'll give it.
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bugs, want me to push now? Or in like half an hour - an hour (after dinner)?
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okay, screw this. if there's a time limit i don't want to be the problem here.
##push cephiro
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So there really wasn't a frantic rush after all and I could've thought about it longer. Oh well.
Anyway, good luck with the plan. Guess I'll see tomorrow whether Syllo is dead.
Ninja'd by Ace. I'll wait around for him to update and see what happened.
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@WBG: all of this from a guy who (rightfully) insists on consolidating pops. Current suspects are, unless I am missing something: Syllo (and pushes on Cephiro to get Syllo), Bluelightz, Tobon, BillMurray (although I disagree, I just think he's dumb), Mattchew and MrZentor. I personally wouldn't mind seeing MrWiggles in that list too.
Seeing as there's only 5 scum and we cannot possibly hope to lynch all those people today, MIND CONSOLIDATING?
Votes have already been cast on Syllo (by way of Cephiro, assuming that pans out) and Bluelightz. I personally think those are pretty good votes (although I still think we should just have straight up lynched Syllo).
Given that any lynch today requires us to push someone completely off the queue to ensure a kill, we should really focus on one target at a time (or one for pushing and one for pulling).
Discussing other targets seems fine, but at this point please don't consider poping them.
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Lol at Syllo. You're more scummy than marlon brando! We know nothing about the nullifier and your speculation about it is adding pointless wifom to the thread.
That said, I dont think there's much risk in leaving him there to die. He's cleary active atm and should be scared of being pushed off the edge, so if the item helps him, he has probably used it already. Pushing him further just wastes more of our actions and it's only a 1/5th chance at the teleport (which he may have already used if he got it). DT or medic would be useless,and probably so would the etch-a-sketch, leaving a dayvig item, which we can't prevent him from using anyway.
In short, rather than wasting pops on him, when he's probably dead anyway, we should focus on another target. I still like bluelightz. Now I'll read the thread since going to bed more carefully as a lot of shit happened.
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All we know about the nullifier is that it roleblocks people and stops them from moving and that it is most likely a scum ability, because of yesterday's evens with Palmar. We don't know any of its limitations, so there is no point in wifom'ing about why mafia used it on cephiiro when they did.
Also, arguing wih Scummogism is counterproductive.
Other useless wastes of time: speculation about mafia shots and abot game setup. Tobon, I think your use of the ability was a giant waste of one of the most powerful abilities in the game, because we have no idea whether Cephiro was anywhere close to the fired. You also prolongue the whole argument around Risk's DT check, which makes its use ven worse for town. Why no wait until town is actually in trouble to use something as awesome as that? I smells scumspicious to me, but I can't think of a reason for scum to use it if Cephiro is town, so it's probably just bad, unless Cephiro is scum after all.
Conclusion: if Cephiro is scum, then Tobon is too.
If Cephiro is town, then Tobon is (bad)
However, believing Cephiro is scum together with Tobon and a nullifier requires scum to be playing so badly that it is beyond ridiculouusto contemplate, so you two are both probably town. So Tobon,step your game up and stop speculating about random crap like game mechanics and people's roles and start scumhunting.
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EBWOP: if Cephiro is town, then Tobon is (bad) town
Someone is eating words out of my sentences
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Aargh, I haven't had my coffee yet, my implications above are all wrong.
If cephiro is town, then Tobon is (bad) town is correct. There is no way scum would EVER use this ability to save a townie. Not even terrible, horrible, atrocious scum would do that.
The other implication should read:
If Tobon is scum, then cephiro is scum, which is simply the contraposition of the one above. I realized that if Cephiro flips scum, Tobon could still be a terribad townie who believed Cephiro to be town.
This also changes the conclusion a bit, but not too much. I guess it is possible to entertain the idea that scum knew where Cephiro was and timed the four pushes to waste 4 pushes before nullifying him in the white zone. However, it just seems way too reckless a play, when things like this depend on timing over a forum. And that's assuming the nullification can even be used on fellow scum.
On top of that, I concluded from Cephiro's filter yesterday that he's probably town and have no reason to change that yet. Tobon is therefore also probably town. I still insist that he steps up his game, though.
Now, on to more important matters. WBG, I disagree with you. This is the last post from Ace:
PoPs - Day 2
+ Show Spoiler +
Mr.Wiggles
Bluelightz Pull prplhz
risk.nuke Push Cephiro
Dirkzor
Mattchew
Snarfs Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism
Cephiro
Tobon
wherebugsgo Pull Bluelightz Push Cephiro
layabout
syllogism
Mr.Zentor Pull Bluelightz
prplhz Pull Bluelightz Push Cephiro
Acrofales Push Cephiro
Bill MurrayPush wherebugsgo Pull Snarfs
cascades Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism
Nemesis Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism
So we have mrzentor, syllo, layabout, tobon, cephiro, mattchew, dirkzor and mrwiggles' pushes left (a total of 8). Layabout claimed yesterday he had no PoP ability, which, if true, leaves us at 7. Cephiro is nullified, leaving us at 6. One belongs to Syllo, so 6 effective pushes if everybody cooperates. That is enough to, probabilistically, get some other scum into the red zone. As I said above, pushing Syllo is only useful if you think he can do something between now and the night deadline to change his survival condition. If he can, then he might as well have done it already. So pushing him further at this point is just a waste of pops: we need 4 pops to push him off, which leaves us with 2 for someone else: that is not enough for anything.
Your scumspects: I like bluelightz mattchew and cascades. Still on the fence about MrZentor. Given this, how about the following action plan:
pushes on bluelightz
pulls on cascades
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Ah, bluelightz. Great to have your presence. I feel like pulling you off the bottom of the queue, but I'm willing to listen. You haven't answered some questions in this thread. Please do, imho your life depends on it.
Why did you think using your bombs was in any way, shape, or form a good idea? Regardless of the darkness (which, imho just makes it even better for scum to have the bombs placed).
On top of that, knowing that it is dark and nobody can see positions, except possibly the guy who cast darkness (and is almost certainly scum), why did you say where the bombs were?
And finally, because other than placing bombs your contribution to this game has been completely nothing, please give your top 3 scum reads, and tell us why they are scum.
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Okay, real life update: the plans we had made to go somewhere for Easter were off the table as too expensive, but we found a cheap deal to go to Zaragoza. The hotel has internet access, but basically from tomorrow until sunday I will be afk, except for quick checks in the morning and/or evening.
Ace, I am unsure on your policy about this. I can probably meet the mandatory post once per day and push/pop deadlines, but the reading pressure on this game is pretty high, so don't expect much from me, starting tomorrow. Do you want me to find a replacement?
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EPT
