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On March 21 2012 08:25 sandroba wrote:
Well I don't really think that reasoning is valid, if I was scum in this spot I'd definitely sheep whoever all town is voting in order to avoid further suspicion. It's unlikely they can stop whatever wagon we decide without risking outing themselves a lot. That's not to say sloosh must be scum because of this, but I'm convinced he is our best bet as of now and we will probably end up lynching him at a later date anyway if not now. Since mafia kp is fixed we might as well get this over with.
You ninja. You a boss.
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I'm bored, let's find the last scum too.
Sandroba, of the people ON the Jackal wagon, who do you feel is most likely to be scum?
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VisceraEyes Jackal-Wagon Analysis
From town to scummy, going down. Green indicates no doubt.
VisceraEyes - towniest town that ever towned a town
sandroba - obviously mason, made Jackal lynch happen
Snarfs - secured Jackal lynch.
johnnywup - constant activity, not cracking under pressure indicating sincerity, hasn't raised a fuss about being called "jdub"
Dirkzor - Jackal came back and, in my opinion, attempted to shift the vote to a townie. I don't think given his activity that he would have tried to shift the vote onto a scumbuddy to save himself.
TIPD - second most vocally suspicious of Jackal D1. Switch to Jackal felt like genuine townie consolidation.
xsksc - not afraid to give opinions, interacts with SlOosh and myself the most...
So I guess the most likely to be scum would either be xsksc or TIPD? It's a tough call, everyone on the Jackal lynch is a SHINING STAR after going back with knowledge that Jackal is scum.
Ultimately, I'm now more convinced that scum were playing for no-lynch yesterday. Several people on the wagon expressed doubt, and it would have been just too easy to cite "fear of speed/lack of resistance" and jump off. All the remaining scum can be found off the Jackal wagon.
Tell me if this is too much of an intuitive leap.
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@SlOosh
This isn't so much about the fact that you didn't sheep sandroba. Games don't have that many blind sheep. Jackal made himself suspicious enough to gather that many votes by being inactive. The fact that you were willing to "sheep" sandroba on a Snarfs lynch "because town sandroba is boss", yet when sandroba calls for someone else, you vote for "no-lynch" over a null read is suspicious no matter what you give as your reasoning. Jackal was suspiciously silent, and this lynch didn't happen just because sandroba waved a magic wand. Your reasoning for not being on the lynch is inconsistent with your previous votes.
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On March 21 2012 16:03 johnnywup wrote:
What's everyones take on TIPD? They haven't contributed that much and have been fairly inactive..
As I said, TIPD was one of the first to actually agree that Jackal is at least moderately suspicious this game. The only thing I'm put off by is how little actual effort appears to be coming from the hydra - like, a bunch of their posts imply that they've been in communication and have reached a conclusion, but there's never any reasoning behind it...just the conclusion.
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What are you considering the "start" of the bandwagon johnny? Sandroba's vote?
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On March 19 2012 19:03 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote:
My town reads atm are
VE - Contributing lots, active and pushing discusson
sandro & jcarl - mason
layabout - ofc what the hell is with me
I'm not sure of Probulous but I think a DT should check him I think,
Scummy in my opinion reads:
Tobon - Look at his filter, he took easy potshots at the lurkers, ezpz way for reasonning as to reads and avoiding attention, oh and planning to sheep =_=.
On the lurkers, I think we should keep on the pressure, I'm waiting on Jackal cause I never get a correct read on him(except in purgatory mafia mwahahahhaha) I'm gonna read up some past games of him as town and scum to compare, for reference to anyone that is going to compare Mafia, I will use MLP Mafia for his town games and TL Mafia XLVIII as for his scum games. I'm gonna talk about this with my other part as soon as I can.
I'm gonna vote Tobon for now, I'm willing to switch to another person if a better on arises but for now, my eyes are on Tobon.
##Vote: Tobon
/blue <3 <3 <3
I was referring to the bolded, but I did think the post you quoted was earlier in the day too.
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I don't know - I've got TIPD at a big fat null subtracting the fact that Jackal was scum...but that's a fact that one has to consider. Layabout at least is pretty decent - I haven't read Blue, but I feel like if TIPD was scum they would have used my comment on the speed of the wagon as an excuse to jump off it - I'm pretty sure at least layabout was there.
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What gives you that feeling Sand?
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Yeah, I can see that. He certainly doesn't seem to be adding much to the hunt for scum.
Are you thinking a mass vote-switch?
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It did.
I never filtered Probulous because reading slOosh's filter convinced me, I think I'm gonna go read that filter and see what I see. So if we vote-switch, you're saying Probulous is your preferred lynch?
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Also did you ever go read Nemesis?
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Probulous, what do you have to say for yourself? Should we switch to you bro?
##Unvote: slOosh
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I noticed that about Probulous too slOosh...the biggest actual stance he took yesterday was that I was scum based on my attack on johnnywup, which he ended up dissolving before the final vote stuff started happening. And after Jackal flipped scum, he didn't even look twice at me - just immediately voted for slOosh. If he were town and he had even an inkling that I was scum, wouldn't he be more convinced that I'm scum when Jackal (someone I called confirmed town early on and defended for a lot of D1) flipped scum?
Think you might have just saved yourself slOosh. Everyone on Probulous, GOGOGO!
##Vote: Probulous
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On March 22 2012 06:56 Snarfs wrote:
@slOosh:
Can you point me to where your opinion changed on xsksc and what your reasoning is for no longer believing he is scum (or at least him not warranting your top 2 picks)?
No time, go vote for Probulous. I wanna hit scum every day. E'ERY DAY I'M SCUM LYNCHIN SCUM LYNCHIN
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On March 22 2012 07:04 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 07:00 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 22 2012 06:56 Snarfs wrote:
@slOosh:
Can you point me to where your opinion changed on xsksc and what your reasoning is for no longer believing he is scum (or at least him not warranting your top 2 picks)? No time, go vote for Probulous. I wanna hit scum every day. E'ERY DAY I'M SCUM LYNCHIN SCUM LYNCHIN No time? We have a full day 
Sshhhhhh...
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On March 22 2012 07:08 Tobon wrote:
I'd rather lynch slOosh, and I'll tell you why: the role block claim.
I think Probulous and slOosh are both equally probable scum. And I see VE switching targets so that we won't flip slOosh, just as soon as the discussion about how unlikely 2 role blockers are died down a bit.
So if slOosh is scum, we lynch scum (yay!), but if slOosh is town, we lynch VE tomorrow.
Nono, I won't allow a mislynch. If we can't get all the necessary votes, I'm down with flipping slOosh. I'd just prefer a Probulous lynch at this point.
For the sake of transparency, slOosh's alignment doesn't tell us anything about who blocked him...so if he flips town, it's just as possible that he was blocked by town that it is that he was blocked by scum. Likewise where I'm concerned...my alignment has nothing to do with who blocked me, and it has nothing to do with who blocked slOosh (if he's telling the truth about the block).
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On March 22 2012 07:18 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 02:05 sandroba wrote:
SlOosh is behaving like townie right now and probulous doesn't seem to care too much about this game. I heard from someone that he is normally very good and very active. Day1 he spent the whole day bickering about your unvote on johnny and going around in circles. Also no one (besides you) really tried to keep votes away from jackal and probulous was mia at that time. His argument about slOosh trying to distance himself from jackal with that post right before the lynch does not make sense, because that post actually accomplishes the opposite. You seem to be forgetting I am on the other side of the world. I am here and posting but everyone else is in the middle of the night. So when I log on in the morning there are pages of stuff to read just before the deadline. Normally the deadlines are later so people are on later and I can push and drive discussion. You call it bickering, I call it putting VE in his place. He could well be scum, his vote to seal the Jackal lynch is what "confirms" him. He knew his case was shit yet he was actively pushing for the lynch. I even asked him if he intended to lynch Johnny and he made it clear that he did. Then he says he knew he case was weak. Are you telling me that discussion was useless? The thing that made him town in my mind was his Jackal vote. He could have pulled a Sloosh and said he wasn't sure, hell he thought he was town for most of the first day, but he hammered Jackal and for that he gets a town read. I explained why I was MIA. That post of Sloosh puts us in a WIFOM situation. Did he do it because he wanted town to reason he wouldn't do it as scum? I think VE's point about how it contradicts his earlier positioning on you is a great point that I missed. I also think it highly unreasonable that anyone would doubt a mason claim from you on day 1. It is way way way too risky a scum move and to assume otherwise is a huge logical fail. I just don't see Sloosh actually believing you could be scum.
So what's the deal? Do you think slOosh is scum? This is a long post, and all I really get from it is you trying to discredit me in one paragraph and agreeing with me in another. I can't tell what you think of slOosh from this post. What's the point of this post?
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Also, I'm going to be playing the part of the wall you have to bang your head against today Probulous...good luck sir.
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Probulous I'm over here bro! You realize that you're defending yourself to the person you're saying we should all lynch right guy?!
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EPT
