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On March 21 2012 08:25 sandroba wrote:
Well I don't really think that reasoning is valid, if I was scum in this spot I'd definitely sheep whoever all town is voting in order to avoid further suspicion. It's unlikely they can stop whatever wagon we decide without risking outing themselves a lot. That's not to say sloosh must be scum because of this, but I'm convinced he is our best bet as of now and we will probably end up lynching him at a later date anyway if not now. Since mafia kp is fixed we might as well get this over with.
True. With you confirmed town it's going to be impossible to fight your wagon, so the votes today probably don't tell us very much.
## Vote slOosh
The other potential advantage to scum from a quick early bandwagon is we waste the rest of the day, though. So how do we keep from doing that? What else is there we ought to be talking about?
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EBWOP: dang, forgot bold again
##Vote: slOosh
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On March 21 2012 11:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
Sandroba, of the people ON the Jackal wagon, who do you feel is most likely to be scum?
Hope you don't mind if I answer as well.
sandroba - obviously town mason.
Dirkzor, Snarfs - both pushed by Jackal, both long before they voted for him. likely town.
xsksc - we may know a lot more here depending on whether slOosh flips town or scum. (if slOosh is scum, xsksc is likely town, if not, harder to tell).
Toad_In_Pink_Dress, VisceraEyes - null. (I mean, they are both assumed town because of the Jackal wagon, but if we're taking a scum-on-Jackal-wagon as a given...) I like TIPD for scummy slightly more than VE because VE has helped drive discussion so much.
johnnywup - Newb, sure, but it's interesting how Jackal and most of the rest of our potential scum were the ones who were reading him as new town and slowing down VE's early pressure. To people who know him better, is Jackal the sort of person who'd tell his scum pals at the end of the day "I'm too suspicious because of my Internet troubles, go ahead and let them lynch me"? Because I don't see johnny bussing on his own, if he was scum, but I could see it if he was directed to. (Jackal's internet troubles also fits with the johnny defense that if he's scum his buddies would've told him to shut up long before - if scum was having trouble communicating and weren't hearing from Jackal, johnny could've been nearly on his own...)
That's all theory rather than evidence (but the johnny evidence has been pointed out before by others, it all depends on whether you buy it as newbieness or not). But those are my feelings right now.
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I'd rather lynch slOosh, and I'll tell you why: the role block claim.
I think Probulous and slOosh are both equally probable scum. And I see VE switching targets so that we won't flip slOosh, just as soon as the discussion about how unlikely 2 role blockers are died down a bit.
So if slOosh is scum, we lynch scum (yay!), but if slOosh is town, we lynch VE tomorrow.
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On March 23 2012 00:26 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 08:06 Probulous wrote:On March 21 2012 07:40 Snarfs wrote:
I'm leaning towards Nemesis being town. After my initial vote, he hasn't done anything to raise my suspicions, and as I stated before the day post I think his tunneling of one of the stronger players this game doesn't make much sense from a scum point of view. This is my feeling too. I think Sloosh is mafia and Nemesis has been pushing Sloosh as well. I find it hard to believe that mafia would be bussing Day 2 given they lost Jackal with the first lynch. I'll take another look and see if I can find anything. ##Vote: Sloosh Caught this with a reread. Makes it more damning that he somehow considers both me and TIPD to be scum.
Why would this be damning to Probulous? It's certainly _possible_ that both you and TIPD are scum. What's the supposed inconsistency here?
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Rereading Probulous's filter. Will respond more fully in a bit.
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I think what it comes down to for me is that all through Day 1 I was reading TIPD as scummy, as was Sloosh. But his lynch vote on Jackal obviously makes a big difference, and then his post today quoting conversation between his two heads makes me think town. Either that or really incredibly masterful scum play to fake towny internal communication so well and so casually. ;-)
But Probulous never mentioned any of the seemingly scummy bits about TIPD on day 1. He only started pushing TIPD on day 2, after he was already a target himself, and after most of the decent reasons to suspect TIPD were already moot. I think he was trying to gin up a wagon, any wagon, by going back and looking at suspicions of the more newb easily convincible sorts (e.g. me) and trying to play on them. I also find Sloosh's argument convincing about how silly it would be for TIPD and Sloosh to have played things the way they've unfolded if they were both scum.
I also think it remains likeliest that we're in the simple scenario where our remaining 2 scum are in the Sloosh/Probulous/Nemesis set of non-Jackal voters. So I find Probulous completely ignoring Nemesis as a potential target to deflect attention from himself suspicious as well. At this point those two (Prob/Nem) look like best scum bets to me.
Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.
##Unvote
##Vote: Probulous
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Yeah, obviously there's not a direct parallel (townies are goats? scum is the new car?), it's more of a feeling that the guess made at the beginning of the day is relatively blind/random, and then information got revealed about the other possibilities... it's got a Monty Hall flavor to it, is all.
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Also: I need to pick up my kids from school today, so I'll be out for awhile about 30 minutes before day end (45 minutes or so from now). If anyone wants me to change my vote, it'll need to be before that.
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Nice!
Next Nemesis. Boom. GG.
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Xsksc and Dirkzor were both on the right side of the Jackal vote. Our choice here is clear.
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So if a town roleblocker and a scum roleblocker target each other, they cancel each other out, I see that in the rules. But are _both_ blocked, or _neither_ blocked? That is, if the scum roleblocker is also the one doing the hit that night, is the hit blocked as well, or not?
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See <http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roleblocker>. In the conflicting role blocks section is an example of the kill potentially being blocked. That's why I'm asking the question.
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I'd voted Jackal earlier on day 1, and was perfectly willing to switch back to him at the end of the day - I was here and waiting to do just that, should it become necessary. (Lynch preferred to no-lynch and all that idea, that got me into so much trouble initially.) I thought it was more interesting to see what would happen with 7 voters and the temptation to change at the last minute, rather than me making it 8 beforehand.
Stick with the obvious move and lynch Nemesis next. :-)
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Yeah, I'm sorry about that. If I'd been a little slower and seen the questioning about rules before I'd posted about the "y", it might have made a big difference.
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No, that was smart. If you hadn't voted Jackal, I was going to. He'd have flipped anyway, and you'd look that much more suspicious.
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EPT
