C9++ Mini Mafia - Page 10

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VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 05:01 GMT

#813

On March 22 2012 13:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
jcarlsoniv, town Mason has been modkilled.

+ Show Spoiler +

biatch I modkilled you!

Does this mean we can't talk about jcarlson?

I forgot to ask sandroba about jcarlson's reads. :OOO

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 14:11 GMT

#819

Okay, the way I see it we're either flipping slOosh or we're no-lynching.

##Unvote: Probulous
##Vote: slOosh

Not sure how I feel about it, given the roleblock claim. If it's legit, initial reaction is that he's probably town...but going back over his filter, he doesn't do anything like blue-slip or lurk or anything. I can't imagine why scum would roleblock him.

So, if I had to guess, I'd say that it was town who roleblocked him and scum who roleblocked me. Obviously speculation, but it at least puts my mind at ease about flipping slOosh...the chances are much greater that slOosh is scum (in my eyes) since it appears that town RB'd slOosh.

If anyone has any serious reservations about slOosh flipping, now is the time guys. If we want to switch targets, we need to start talking about it now. I'm okay with slOosh flipping, myself.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 14:35 GMT

#824

It's not about proving your innocence at this point - it's about finding a viable different candidate. If you really want to save yourself, convince town to lynch someone else. Just coming in and asking everyone "how you can prove your innocence" is ridiculous - because even if you followed the instructions to the letter, that doesn't do anything to "prove your innocence" because you asked.

So is Probulous your lynch of choice?

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 15:21 GMT

#827

I also agree with a Probulous lynch.

In addition to what slOosh has said, he claims that he thought I was scum until the Jackal lynch - that the Jackal lynch was the only thing that "confirms" me. Yet he unvotes long before the flip - he was content with my defense against his points, but still is not satisfied with my explanations.

His stories are conflicting.

I prefer a Probulous lynch.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 15:32 GMT

#831

To be fair, as sandroba (I think) explained, scum are going to bus the shit out of their teammates today. Whether you're scum or not, if a wagon gains immediate traction as yours did, scum have no choice but to go along at least at first.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 16:44 GMT

#840

What's damning about Probulous is that his reads and reasoning don't match. Mostly pertaining to his read of me. I'm trying to figure out how to explain this better because it seems to be confusing everyone.

As far as I can see, Probulous' reasoning for suspecting me is the following:

"bad" case on johnnywup
unvote of johnnywup
inconsistent actions
"loquacious"

The thing about his read though is that it changed over the course of our interactions. Why? My reasoning was never sufficient for him. I never refuted is point about not wanting to kill johnny. My actions, strictly speaking, should still be inconsistent, and he should still be suspicious of me. But he proceeds to unvote after I say that I talk a lot. Before the Jackal flip.

Yet when pressured about the reasoning for pushing me yesterday as scum, this was Probulous' response.

On March 22 2012 07:18 Probulous wrote:

Show nested quote +

You seem to be forgetting I am on the other side of the world. I am here and posting but everyone else is in the middle of the night. So when I log on in the morning there are pages of stuff to read just before the deadline. Normally the deadlines are later so people are on later and I can push and drive discussion.

You call it bickering, I call it putting VE in his place. He could well be scum, his vote to seal the Jackal lynch is what "confirms" him. He knew his case was shit yet he was actively pushing for the lynch. I even asked him if he intended to lynch Johnny and he made it clear that he did. Then he says he knew he case was weak. Are you telling me that discussion was useless?

The thing that made him town in my mind was his Jackal vote. He could have pulled a Sloosh and said he wasn't sure, hell he thought he was town for most of the first day, but he hammered Jackal and for that he gets a town read.

I explained why I was MIA. That post of Sloosh puts us in a WIFOM situation. Did he do it because he wanted town to reason he wouldn't do it as scum? I think VE's point about how it contradicts his earlier positioning on you is a great point that I missed. I also think it highly unreasonable that anyone would doubt a mason claim from you on day 1. It is way way way too risky a scum move and to assume otherwise is a huge logical fail. I just don't see Sloosh actually believing you could be scum.

Then why the unvote before the flip? What about my defense was the most compelling Probulous? Because the whole paragraph before you explain how I was "confirmed" for you, you spent describing how I'm still suspicious according to your reasoning. If you thought I was scum before Jackal flipped, why did you unvote when you did? Why weren't you voting for me to be lynched with Nemesis?+ Show Spoiler +

I think you were setting yourself up to do whatever you wanted today, according to town sentiment. I think you knew Jackal would flip scum, but just in case sandroba pushed for my lynch today (he's said he's suspicious of me several times this game,) you could jump on-board with no repercussions.

##Unvote: slOosh
##Vote: Probulous

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 16:59 GMT

#842

That's the spirit sandroba. Don't get so emotional about it though - you could have been getting information YOU want, but you wanted us to do it without you. What gives you headaches about it?

Probulous is verbose, so if you think he's making sense as town, you have to assume he's capable of making sense as scum. Explain what's so frustrating about this game.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 17:31 GMT

#846

On March 23 2012 02:22 Tobon wrote:
Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice.

I'm sure it doesn't feel that way to Probulous, regardless of his alignment.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 20:03 GMT

#860

On March 23 2012 05:01 johnnywup wrote:
also tobon monty hall doesnt apply here because no persons role was revealed during a vote

There's also not guaranteed to be scum inside our lynch candidates, technically speaking. That is unless you know something we don't.

It's an interesting analogy though...

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 20:13 GMT

#862

Also <3

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 20:51 GMT

#866

I'm satisfied if you're on Probulous. I'm maybe 85% on my read. Maybe closer to 80%

...close enough for college work though.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 21:24 GMT

#870

Not trying to be evasive or anything Probulous - just as you expect leeway from everyone else regarding your active times, I expect leeway from you in regard to forgiving times that I post things.

That being said, everything I said in my case I've already said to you. You just skipped over it or didn't understand it. *shrug*

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 21:33 GMT

#876

So you're saying that if I'm scum and I make a bad case, all I have to do to absolve myself of suspicion is to admit that my case is bad? That's what you're saying?

You expect me to believe that you thought I was scum with malicious intent and an agenda, and you just took for granted that I'm town because I admitted that my case 20 minutes into the game wasn't strong? That's what you're selling to me?

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 21:53 GMT

#891

Probulous - but that's just what you did voting Tobon sir - you voted for someone who clearly wasn't going to get lynched instead of consolidating with town. On a scum lynch, sir.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:00 GMT

#906

Cool.

f5f5f5f5f5

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:02 GMT

#910

On March 23 2012 07:01 Snarfs wrote:
Well... I hope either way we get some good info out of this.

Well, we'll have to pretty much policy lynch me tomorrow if Probulous is town, so I'm hoping he's scum.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:07 GMT

#918

You guys are speaking like you already know how he's gonna flip.....

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:08 GMT

#920

It's called buyer's remorse. Get used to it.

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:10 GMT

#922

I thought buying a car was a good idea, but a sudden bout of buyer's remorse caused me to worry about the insurance payments...

VisceraEyes

United States21170 Posts

March 22 2012 22:11 GMT

#925

Nah - I say 'get used to it' because you seem to be the active type, and you'll probably decide a number of important lynches. If you're going to be doing that, make sure you steel yourself in case you're wrong....because statistically speaking, you're going to be wrong a lot more than you're going to be right.

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