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EBWOP:
post more of what I suspect is the mafia pair, not post more thoughts and discussion.
Want to re - emphasize: (four refers to SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate)
On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote:
There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town.
MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
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On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game  We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise.
Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened.
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Ok I'll come out and just say it. All the cards on the table.
I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade.
I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning.
Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs.
Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active.
The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one.On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote:
There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town.
MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem.
This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing.
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On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:
Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game.
- Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again.
- Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell".
- More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs.
Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well.
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I want us to take a step back and think big picture.
Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched). He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious. Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity). He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work.
What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible.
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On February 03 2012 09:53 Bromancipate wrote:
Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum.
My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you.
I want to make that clear right now.
I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell").
As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia.
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We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario:
night ends: 5 town 2 mafia
mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia
night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting.
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On February 03 2012 11:15 Bromancipate wrote:
Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum. This is precisely the thought process I don't want town to get. I have made it very clear. 4 suspects. 2 MUST BE TOWN. You have to accept that at least two of them are town, DESPITE their scumminess as you call it. It is very logical to consider as mafia as pairs as to help make better reads.
Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not.
Hence why I disregarded it as an idea. It does make sense to see an interaction between two players and note the relationship between them. I have stated before that my read on Bromancipate is not solely founded upon my read on Zelblade. That is not what I said.
So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. Again, no. Bromancipate is painting an incorrect picture of my argument.
So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM.
No, this is why I believe zelblade is mafia. I am not basing it off WIFOM, I have a very clear analytical basis of believing Zelblade is mafia.
I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him.
This is anti-town as it plants seeds of doubt concerning one of the most town people here. I believe Simberto was a genuine mislynch. No one has counterclaimed DYH's hit. He pushed for Zarepath lynch, even when I backed off. Distrust is anti-town. Guys, please notice how again this is subtle influence over town.
Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade?
Again, Bromancipate sidesteps my reasoning. Focusing on the 4 suspects leads to town loss as we only have room to lynch two of them and two of them are TOWN. And I never said actively. I said clearly that he is subtly trying to distract & misdirect us. The last line is illogical. If you think someone is much more likely to flip red, you don't defend the other suspect, but you push forward the first suspect.
Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement.
Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions.
It's ok to disagree with my logic, but it is not town to simply ignore and brush it aside. It is more helpful to town to reason with me why you think something illogical, that both I and other townspeople would not fall into a logical mistake. He paints me in a bad light again by skewing reality. I never commanded anyone and have welcomed correction multiple times.
Lastly he does not treat my argument seriously. He makes light of it. Throughout his response he sidesteps, he sets up scarecrows, he paints me in bad light. Notice how he ends his defense.
Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead?
Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. I argued that it is not pro-town. The last two lines are condescending. Definitely not how town treat other town.
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On February 03 2012 11:26 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 11:07 slOosh wrote:
We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario:
night ends: 5 town 2 mafia
mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia
night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting. I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more. Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind. DoYouHas is town.
I never did that. You will notice my case on Zelblade has nothing to do on his attack on FakePromise, nor his defense of Zarepath, nor any interaction with Simberto.
I also never said we should link them all.
I do not appreciate you twisting up what I said.
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I knew it. Adam was shot.
##Vote Zelblade.
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Oh ho ho!
Big thank you to dreamflower, Qatol, making this happen and Incognito for great coaching.
First mafia game and I roll medic :p
Lol 1st day save was semi-fluke. I couldn't save myself so I picked the next towniest guy I saw.
2nd day, torn between MG and DYH. I knew a vigi shot would go through regardless so I was biased in saving DYH.
3rd day was Adam as I toyed with the idea that Bromancipate would cast doubt on DoYouHas (with fail simberto lynch).
Thank you all for a great game 
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I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious.
And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable.
So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><;
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On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote:
I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious.
And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable.
So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town.
I think it is because you can push a case on pretty much all of them that I was so wary.
I have no idea of an example as this is my first and only forum mafia game, and I think I got the idea as soon as Adam posted that paint picture.
Wrong read on Zelblade and by chance I guess I suspected you hard.
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On February 04 2012 06:07 Chocolate wrote:
Wow guys you played really well. Sloosh definitely mvp, I wish we had gone after you night 1 but we thought you would be healed.
I definitely sucked, I was afraid to post analysis because I was certain I would make a scumslip and I didn't know exactly what to look for.
Ahaha, I looked at both mafia and obs QTs and it seems that most of my reads were lucky / illogical / confirmation bias (Zarepath, zelblade, Simberto).
I was worried that I might be killed, and since I couldn't heal myself, I tried to act as fearless as possible, hoping to give off a veteran vibe and not get shot. I guess it worked out in a different way than I intended  .
I think you could have posted stuff on zelblade or cosmos or simberto or anyone. For instance, I posted a lot of stuff (most of it would turn out wrong) but it is more suspicious to not even try to contribute, which is why I think Adam read you as mafia.
That's my guess anyways. If SacredSystem stopped tunneling Zelblade (leading me to think he was detective and kicking my confirmation bias into overdrive) I would have gone for you with this reasoning.
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It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.
Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?
Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?
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Uhh oh boy. I would love to but I am overwhelmed by the number of people playing, the brand new types of roles, the added layer of traits and this day/night simultaneous business.
Gah, and I just found out it is a PM game!
It seems like too much for me ><;
Hoping that GMarshal will host another Newbie game after his mini.
I am very excited to play and just waiting for appropriate game right now.
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I could see a confident townie doing that and explain themselves by saying it is for generating discussion. Mafia could pretend to be that and it would throw off people's reads.
I've actually been thinking about day 1s in general, and wondered how to get talking started (assuming normal game without mayor elections). For this game it was FakePromise's innocent but misunderstood/exaggerated 30% statement but how would you do that in other games?
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Should blues try to look as green as possible (to deter blue snipes)?
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On February 10 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote:
Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process? The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread. Here is the logic - You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
- You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
- Profit?
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched. Then when he flipped people should have realised that he was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched
Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ...
Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often?
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On February 10 2012 14:45 Adam4167 wrote:
The sooner you get to Lylo the better. Its such a dangerous position, because if even ONE townie vote is in the wrong place, boom, game over. Every single townie needs to be on the same page heading into Lylo, otherwise mafia take it. Thus, getting there as fast as possible will give the town as little to work with as possible. This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count.
Would it have been a good idea to no lynch D1 in this game? Or any game?
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On February 10 2012 15:00 Adam4167 wrote:
Day 1 is almost universally a mislynch. That means you can be sure that 50-75% of the scum team are on the vote. I am perfectly fine with trading that townie (who obviously did something... not smart) to heavily narrow down the scum suspects.
How do you look at voting lists? Do you try to match up who shows up on mislynches vs mafia lynches, or is it just a jumping point to have some suspects to analyze?
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On February 10 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote:
For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced.
I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful.
I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source).
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EPT
