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EBWOP2:
Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_>
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates
7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.
8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.
9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.
10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.
11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.
12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.
Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far.
Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence?
Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of?
If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not?
Also:
+ Show Spoiler +I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.
Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 12:33 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote:My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler +Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence:+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote: There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. Show nested quote + On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote: Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: Show nested quote + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote: With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow. Jab and dodge eh? I like your style. I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up. And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin.... Thought of some cute food for thought: Surely rotten eggs will indeed be the those whom first crack in the steamer This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote: There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. Show nested quote + On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote: Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMakerYou know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler +Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. I like you WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again. Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread. I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs. [/b]
What's a smurf? 2 different accounts or something?
No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book.
Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise.
Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something). -If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something -If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference.
For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier.
Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here. Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later.
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On January 05 2012 13:14 Probulous wrote: Yes a smurf is a vet playing under a different name.
Players do that? Why?
I disagree but we can leave it for post-game. If that situation came up I woudl tell people to shut-up about and if they didn't listen would make my own case and push it. If we lose because people are derps that is not my problem. I cannot make you vote one way or another if you are not willing to listen. Anyway, leave it for now and we can discuss afterwards.
Agreed....
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On January 05 2012 13:24 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 13:21 gonzaw wrote:On January 05 2012 13:14 Probulous wrote: Yes a smurf is a vet playing under a different name. Players do that? Why? I disagree but we can leave it for post-game. If that situation came up I woudl tell people to shut-up about and if they didn't listen would make my own case and push it. If we lose because people are derps that is not my problem. I cannot make you vote one way or another if you are not willing to listen. Anyway, leave it for now and we can discuss afterwards. Agreed.... See the first Student MafiaElectricBlack was Palmar's smurf and Blazinghand was WBG's. In this case it was to coach but sometimes people smurf because they want to survive night one. If a vet comes into a game with a repuation for hunting scum, they are already a target, hence the need for a smurf.
But it kind of defeats the purpose of "Newbie Mafia".
It's not fun having a vet shredding newbies to pieces in a game that doesn't correspond to him just because he "wants to survive night 1".
It also means that he's free from having his meta used against him. Why should he have that "advantage" and other players not?
On January 05 2012 12:48 Probulous wrote:Whether he flips Town or Mafia says nothing about you or me. I am pushing his case based on what he has provided. I don't know whether he Mafia for sure, but he is the most likely. he is also the most dangerous because people don't seem to see what I see. If he flips town I am no more Mafia than if he flips Mafia.
Okay, what is this?
If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players.
Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier?
If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally? Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this.
You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you. That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town.
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EBWOP:
Meant "Depending on how you react to his flip, and looking at your filter...", damn, I hate not being able to edit posts here.
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On January 05 2012 13:51 Probulous wrote: Oh dear, both of you at the same time.
The point is that if I find some scummy and they turn out to be wrong. Read the analysis. Of course as town you want to prove someone is scum by nailing them to the wall if you are town. You would do it less conclusively if you were scum. You tell the difference by the analysis, not by the vote. That is all I am trying to say, because people can easily get this impression that if you make a huge post calling someone out you cannot be unintentionally wrong.
Of course you have to reread the thread, read his filter, and read his analisis for his vote.
But you can't say that this method, AND the conclusion are the same whether the flip is red or green/blue (which you implied by saying that the flip said nothing about you).
Also, of course the flip inherently, in itself, and taken out of context doesn't say anything about anyone, unless there's an open setup with 2 blue claims and the flip is of one of them.
I am not implying that if he flips town you shouldn't find me suspicious. On the contrary I am saying that if he flips town you should re-read the analysis and make up your mind based on that. I can't get someone lynched on my own, I have to convince people. If a townie gets lynched it cannot only be my fault, other must have voted too. How do you tell the scum? Through their reasons for voting, mine is my analysis. That is all I am trying to say, people's votes can give you a feel but they can also lead you to make assumptions that are wrong. Be careful!
Well, I thought you were implying the opposite (read above).
Also yeah, let's just drop it for now.
Also, I may have to disagree with that guide just a tiny bit regarding semantics:
Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean?
The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day).
Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it.
Saying "If player X is town, he doesn't know what Y will flip" is not logically the same as saying "If Y flips, you don't know if X is town".
Easy counterexample is having 2 DT counterclaims, and X votes for the one that says he got a vanilla check from X.
Without taking mechanics into account, then, well, you have to rely on the analysis stuff again.
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EBWOP:
On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers.
Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D!
Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up:1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please?
If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here.
I thought that was pretty apparent.
Also, I suggest everybody keeps a notepad or something open with all the votes/suspicions/important events/thoughts and stuff. I know I do, and it will come very handy to you guys. Also, if you can't reread the thread, or do a simple CTRL+F with "##" search to figure out the vote tally, then it means you aren't really putting that much effort into the game (which is odd from you, so I guess you are just being lazy or something now, or trying to gauge someone's reaction or something).
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).
I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.
Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl The problem is not that you are inactive, the problem is the content of the little posts you have.
Things like this for intance:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 04:22 Xeris wrote: I can guarantee you guys that I am not mafia -- I'm a townie.
Anyone who has played mafia with me knows how terrible I am at being a mafia. I am a really good townie though, so you should definitely keep me in the game!
I don't vote in this thread right?? When are the votes due (i.e. what actual time)?
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).
I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.
Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl
Those seem like a contradiction to me, you can't say you are a "really good townie", and then undermine your own play, saying you'll just sheep along, and that you don't have any "clues about online mafia", etc.
Actually, it is a contradiction assuming you are town. If you are scum, then it would be perfectly fine, even so since you said you were a horrible scum player, am I right?
What's your response?
+ Show Spoiler +Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Who exactly are you talking about here?
+ Show Spoiler +Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl
Also, stop doing this.
Even if you are a "newbie", you shouldn't "undermine" your own play. It will make other people underestimate you too, and you will have a more difficult time convincing them, etc.
...of course, if you are mafia this is actually pretty good for you, so don't do it (it's just like Gretorp's "joke", it's dumb if he's town, but works for him if he's mafia).
If you have the time, I'd like you to respond to my questions to you, and of course give us your thoughts on the current events.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates
7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.
8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.
9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.
10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.
11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.
12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.
Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: + Show Spoiler +I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this. Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB.
Emulating other players, just by formating your post in a similar way to make things more tidy and stuff is fine.
...but don't emulate players in other ways. Try to be yourself here. Also this could be the perfect excuse for sheeping or jumping on bandwagons and such "I was just emulating player X!". So try to be as "authentic" here as possible.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day:
Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.
To be honest, CM's vote was formatted wrongly. Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know, but the point is that it won't count for the vote tally. There's the small chance both of them are scum, and he formatted wrong on purpose, so don't go assuming otherwise (of course he could have just bussed normally and forgot to format it correctly).
Also, damn, this whole replacement thing is kind of a let down. I wanted Cookie to come and explain himself, *sigh* I suppose we can't do that anymore...
I'll check Tea's posts in a moment. I also suggest all of you view Tea's posts in the same light you viewed Cookie's posts. If you thought Cookie was scum, then you think Tea is scum; if you thought he was town, you think Tea is town, that's irrefutable.
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EBWOP:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 20:22 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote: Ok, i'm really far behind right now and rereading quite a lot. I've read up to page 8 or so, and up to this point it seems to be mostly commentating on NL vs Lynch.
Allow me to state my stance on this (it differes massively from my predecessor, it seems).
There are three ways we can handle D1. We can 1) No Lynch, 2) Mislynch or 3) Lynch Scum. It is not possible to Random Lynch.
Why? Because Random implies that there is no reasoning behind the lynch and that it happens, almost spontaneously. It is already too late for this to happen.
it is not an accident that i ordered the three things we can do in that order. I order them from Worst --> Best. I'll explain why:
1) No Lynch - This is badbadbad and we should never ever ever NL on any day that isn't a MYLO. The lynch is town's Primary Weapon. Not the cop. Not the doc. Not any other Power Role. The lynch. This is, when you get down to it, a game of the Uninformed Majority vs the Informed Minority. The Majority - town - has no information. The minority - scum - has a lot of information. The way to beat the minority? Information.
How, then, do we gain information? Through cop results? Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyy-no. Nevieer rely on a Power Role. That's silly. What you gonna do the one game that the cop dies N1? Roll over and die? No, the best form of information is the lynch for reasons i shall dictate below.
2) Mislynch - Oh no, we lynched town. Is it the end of the world? Nope. Not even if we lynch a PR (altho i hope we don't). Its not an ideal situation, but its nowhere near as bad as it may sound. Consider the following:
1) Scum must vote too. 2) Scum know who Scum are. 3) Scum will be eager to lynch Town*
By analysing behaviour and how people vote, and in what order, and how they jump on and off wagons, it can be incredibly helpful to see who the Scum are. Now, i'm not claiming to be the best in votal analysis (That's a friend of mine, we cann him The Machine because of how damned consistent he is in finding scum), but i'm pretty decent at it. Here are a few pointers: --Scum doesn't like to start wagons. --Scum doesn't like voting next to each other --Scum will often jump onto a wagon on a townie early --Scum will often jump onto a wagon on a fellow scumate late.
In fact, in my experiance playing mafia, i find that finding connections between people is much easier when we Mislynch then whren we actually hit scum. Although, thats just personal experiance, really.
*Of course, this does not mean that they won't lynch scum in order to get on town's good side, but thats Wine.
3) Lynching Scum - yay, we're a scum down and even have a juicy wagon to analyse! Awesomesauce!
So, what am i saying here? Lynch for the sake of lynching? Of course not, that's terrible!!! And i think this is the problem that most people who are Anti-D1-Lynch as Town have with Lynching. We make an Informed Lynch, not a Random Lynch. We ask everyone for their specific reasons for voting and if they ain't to par, we hold them to it.
...???
What's the point of this? Are you assuming that we are discussing the same things we were on page 8?
First, you hadn't read the thread before being replaced?
I got the feeling all replacements followed the game like observers and such, so when they were replaced they already knew the things about the game. For instance, if you were replaced in Day 5, then good luck reading all the thread!
Second, why didn't you wait and read all the thread before posting? The whole random lynch/no lynch discussion will only set us back.
+ Show Spoiler +Now, i'm going to admit to a Thing here. I'm not the best scumhunter in the world. I tend to find more scum via mechanics then by actual hunting (hence the reason this post has been mostly a mechanics post then a read-post), but i've learned a great tool that helps me hunt scum. Questions!
Seeing how people react to questions is incredibly informative. As such, i am going to ask the follow questions to everyone in the game, both to start conversation and also to give people reason to slip. Most of what i've read so far (i read the fikrst 8 pages and skimmed through the rest) have been mostly going back and forth over the same little things. i'm hoping these questions will bring some more information to the table. (Also, these questions aren't rolefishing because im asking them of everybody.)
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? 2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? 3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? 4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote. 6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
I'll answer my own questions, as well as vote someone, and post some reads, when i have caught up proper (which should be later today). i thought i'd post a mechanics-related post before i caught up and posted reads to show y'all that i was here and also state my opinion on a discussion that occured before i joined the game.
Again, what's the point of this? Your posts would be fitting if Day 1 started 2 hours ago, but, why do you feel the need to post this if there's plenty of information to go by?
Also, why talk about blue roles when it isn't even night? If you want to discuss how to direct the blues or something, do it at least when Night 1 starts. Maybe a blue role is misslynched or modkilled or something this day. This goes for the other people talking about blues too.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 02:30 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 23:43 Blurry wrote:On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:On January 05 2012 12:46 Jitsu wrote: RE: Cookie, Analysis
Damn, you're "Big Read" is of a suspected town player. And another suspected town player.
Instead of posting who you think the Town players are, why don't you actually give us some reads on who the Scum players are? I think that would be more beneficial in a game where finding Mafia matters. Especially since we're 24 hours in and I don't clearly recall you posting any scum tell.
At all.
Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3.
Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.
##Vote for CatsnHats The "I don't have to post analysis because he already said it post" Other than that most of his posts have contributed nothing and have just been filler. Didn't post his reads on any players until he was pressured into doing it. Don't you think these could just as easily be newbslips rather then scumslips? 'least, thats the way it looks to me. On January 06 2012 01:49 Jitsu wrote:On January 05 2012 20:22 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? 2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? 3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? 4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote. 6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
There is e secplenty of discussion in the mean-time where questions like these waste more logical thought than is required. If you want to WIFOM the proposed blue specials, do it later, but as of right now, there are better things to discuss, especially with the limited time we have left in the day to center our votes on someone. The DT and Medic are both roles that will need to be smart about who they use it for. Why are you even bringing in a Vig/Role Blocker when they aren't even in the game for the Town? I think there is a better question to be asked right now. Cookie subbed out at a bad time for you Tea. I don't think i'm the only one that is suspicious of the role that Cookie was given. Now, onto the second part that caught my eye. The bolded part at the end - the simple "you." I assume the "Abstinence lets scum hide among "you" refers to the town. However, since I was given the role of VT, I would have worded it as "us." Scum slip this early? Not a good start. I still think that if Cats flips red, you will too. But I also think that you're role is red. On the contrary, i find that asking questions such as these provide responses which can be most telling! I know that there isnt a vig or a blocker in the game right now, but those are the standard four questions i tend to ask in mafia games (i usually play closed setups). Its not so much what you'd do with your role, its your reasoning that proves to be interesting. Incidentally, it appears that you think i am asking these questions in order to wine the actual power roles and scums attitude towards them. This is not the case - i am asking because this is a tool i have always found helpful to help hunt scum! As for the part that you bolded - i thought it was clear that the "You" referred to the people who abstained, not town as a whole. It seems you are clutching at straws! Are you asking me to roleclaim? Because i don't want to do that regardless of what my role is. I've always considered Role Claims to be Bad (with a capital B!) and only to be used as a last resort. I'm nowhere near my last resort yet. After all, i just started playing!I understand that CM has left me in a bit of a poor spot...i'd like to remind you that Newbs often make slips that look scummy but are in fact newbslips. Too many times i've mislynched newbs for these slips! I'd further like to ask that you judge me on the posts that i make if possible (the quantity of which will hopefully rise soon). Whilst i of course understand that this slot wasn't played solely by me, its rather more difficult to defend CM then it is to defend myself, because i dont know what drove his actions, yknow? As for my reads...i'm getting a couple of light ones right now, but i'd rather do it justice and make one Big post (like my Mechanics post) so that i can both collect all my reads in one place and give ample reasoning behind them. I intend to sit down for an hour or so to do this properly later on tonight when i can have an unbroken hour of just mafia. I'll prolly end up writing a couple of paragraphs on each player stating what i think of em.
This strikes me as odd. Why are you so nervous about roleclaiming? You only have 2 votes on you, you aren't even in any danger of being lynched (for now).
That last "I'm nowhere near my last resort yet. After all I just started playing!" seems very nervous to me. People put the slightest of pressure on you with that "abstinence" thing and you crack like this?
+ Show Spoiler +[QUOTE]On January 06 2012 01:49 Jitsu wrote:There is plenty of discussion in the mean-time where questions like these waste more logical thought than is required. If you want to WIFOM the proposed blue specials, do it later, but as of right now, there are better things to discuss, especially with the limited time we have left in the day to center our votes on someone. The DT and Medic are both roles that will need to be smart about who they use it for. Why are you even bringing in a Vig/Role Blocker when they aren't even in the game for the Town?
We don't know if there are blue roles or not, so I find it uncomfortable with people assuming there are.
Take into account that if scum have 3 goons, they know there is a blue role, so this could be regarded as a scumslip if you push it further.
Also, this is for the Medic/DT if there are: Don't post assuming there are blue roles (yourself), scum can figure this out and kill you in a heartbeat.
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Wut?
My vote is on Cookie/Tea, and it will stay the same for now, at least until Tea responds back. I thought Cookie was scum, and Tea isn't doing anything to change my mind.
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EBWOP:
Although, Xeris became active just now (for a bit at least) and I'd like some pressure on him. I think he's being inconsistent, even though he has like 4 posts. Although voting him will do us no good, and most likely result in a no-lynch.
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EBWOP2:
Oh, forgot Tunkeg voted Tea too. I should correct that part where I said "you only have 2 votes on you".
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On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:RE: Gonzaw -
It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said.
...wut?
You are admiting you scumsliped? Wtf? Should I just assume that was a question and you fucked up the grammar or something?
Also, I was under the impression you were assuming there is a blue role, which is stupid at this point (even though there's 75% chance of there being at least 1 blue role, but again leave that to night 1 talk). And like I said, if scum have 3 goons, they know for sure that there is a blue role, and therefore can scumslip.
Assuming there is a blue role, and this scumslip are almost impossible to distinguish, so if you are town just stop doing it (you and everybody else, specially the blue roles if there are any).
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On January 06 2012 06:26 Jitsu wrote: There was supposed to be a question mark at the end of the sentence.
And you are telling me to stop talking about blue roles when i've said twice now that it's pointless to talk about them.
I'm telling you to stop assuming there are blue roles.
I was telling Tea to stop talking about blue roles (and Sheth, and those other guys that did so before, and the ones that answered Tea's questions).
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Okay, I'm back (was at the gym), and just a quick thing:
Good, we need a lynch today. We only have 9 votes on Tea, so nobody even think about swinging their votes at the last minute and force a NL, we'll assume you are scum if you do.
I'll reread everything now (maybe I'll be finished once the day is over though).
Also, I REALLY hope Xeris and Gretorp come here soon, they (specially Xeris) have A LOT to explain. And hell, if they are replaced again I'll shoot myself in the foot.
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Hmm..
Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green. Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc.
Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives:
On January 06 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote.
You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive?
What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?.
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On January 06 2012 10:15 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 10:06 gonzaw wrote:Hmm.. Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green. Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc. Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives: On January 06 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote. You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive? What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?. Ok, one last post before I leave, you guys keep dragging me back in The problem I have is that the lack of posts makes it very hard to judge what Gretorp's motivations are. How do we tell whether he is a bored/timepressured townie or a mafia trying to lurk? I am more than happy for others to try and work it out but it would be a waste of time for me to try. Nothing they have done screams townie, but nothing screams mafia either. This because neither of them have done anything. Hence they are both null for the moment. I would implore my fellow townies to provide some analysis on why these guys are town/mafia. I just can't make up my mind based on what I've read. Finally both have been warned for lack of voting, if they do it again or don't post for 24hrs they will be modkilled. Why waste a lynch at this point that gives us no information? Better to lynch someone we think is scum than someone who may or may not be.
I'm not actually saying they are mafia. They are just VERY scummy, inconsistent, and we NEED TO PRESSURE THEM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
Ever since the whole Cephiro vs Cookie thing came up, we basicly ignored them. We can't do that anymore. We have to either threaten them with a lynch, or with a DT check (if there is one) or something, they can't go like that anymore.
Also, like I said the point is not lynching them just because (that's stupid), the point is getting them to talk.
Also, I'm very suspicious of Xeris at the moment. Even though he had 4 posts in which you say makes him "hard to judge", here's what he did: -He contradicted himself. -He talked about mechanics when it wasn't necessary nor was the current discussion -He ignored people's votes and pressure on him. -He played the "I'm a good town! You better not lynch me because I'm good!" and the "Maybe I'm bad at online mafia, don't take my reads into account" card (related to point #1)
I can't just ignore him, I can't.
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EBWOP:
For instance, I can't believe EVERYBODY ignored this:
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it
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I'm gonna eat now, when I come back I'll analyse those things I posted.
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On January 06 2012 10:40 Probulous wrote:I realised that I didn't actually answer your question So here we go Show nested quote +What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? It is bad play. No town should promise something and then not deliver. However he did point out the waffle nature of Cephiro's posting and his unwillingness to actually say someone is scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote: cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) Hence until further posting arises he is null to me.
Fair enough.
Although remember that just because someone has similar views/reads to you it doesn't make him less mafia or more town.
Your analysis is pretty good. I always had him as more scummy than Gretorp. His avoidance of responsiblity and blatant trashing of any case presented is not helping. Neither is his lack of posting. He does look scummy but I still want to hear from him before making up my mind.
Well, don't we all?
Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever):
1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch.
Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo
*sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before.
Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good.
About Blurry though:
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.
Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him.
On January 05 2012 15:58 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:
<snip>
Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.
I may be a little late on this, but this is a clear tell for me that he is scum. The "I'm not contributing because you already took my points" is simply trying to absolve yourself from having to provide any analysis. ##Vote: CookieMaker
Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first)..
At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said.
On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc.
DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING
Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself?
I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris).
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.
I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things.
This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless).
You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude:
On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this.
In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either.
I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little. But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp.
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