EPTRoL you better be pulling unicorns out of your ass
Purgatory Mafia - Page 10
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
RoL you better be pulling unicorns out of your ass | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Erandorr Flipped VT http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=41#814 | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
1) the idea that we're gonna break a setup with mass roleclaim is preposterous 2) the idea that we're going to protect blues by banishing them defeats the purpose of blues. I think the way vanilla town should play this is the way town should play every game: find scum and lynch them. Blues should use their powers wisely and not roleclaim except in extreme cases. On January 09 2012 12:20 Jackal58 wrote: That's exactly why I think they are. Palmar is lazy scum. He doesn't like being scum. His actions towards Syllo are in line with his day one behavior as scum. I've played scum with Palmar before. He interacts with his teammates like nobodies business. Whether or not Palmar was lazy, I think we'll get more out of analyzing Syllogism's actions. I'm not comfortable wandering into meta WIFOM territory. On January 09 2012 12:43 Refallen wrote: Jackal, what do you think of syllo switching to Errandor late in day 1? As he said, I find it hard how someone who first pushed risk.nuke would stay on him throughout the day only to vote switch late to errandor if they're scum buddies. Right now, I think it more likely that syllo just brainfarted, but I'll like to hear your take on the day 1 situation. yeah man someone making a case on one dude then putting his vote on another dude what's up with that. On a more serious note here's syllo's filters and my thoughts: "Dude man Syllo what's the deal?" This is my question for Syllo. Here's where he's like "yeah man Erandorr not a good lynch" On January 07 2012 00:51 syllogism wrote: While I consider palmar the better lynch out of wiggles/palmar, I don't think it's a good idea to lynch palmar today. We've other very good lynches available, it's a setup with 6 scum and he is very likely to become more transparent the longer the game goes on if he is scum or dead if he is town. I'll probably narrow the list down but I would like to keep the lynch between erandorr/risk/tyrran/refallen. Out of those erandorr appears to be by far the safest lynch and the only reason I haven't been actively pushing him as the #1 lynch was to give him more time and because it's pretty disappointing if he again decided not to play due to rolling scum. ^===This is before my "hustlin" post. On January 07 2012 05:51 syllogism wrote: Wiggles what do you think about Erandorr and Risk nuke and don't you think that in a 6 scum game it would be safer play to lynch one of them or Tyrran as I would estimate that they are at least as likely to flip scum and are going to be considerably more worthless even if we happen to be wrong. ^===this is after my "hustlin" post. On January 07 2012 08:33 syllogism wrote: We should lynch erandorr/risk/tyrran today, regardless of how scummy you think palmar is being. The fact people don't seem to be willing to hop on those wagons despite me repeatedly giving them an opportunity to do so is suspicious. If palmar is scum, he has two scum mates who should be looking for alternative wagons by now. It's of course quite possible that his team mates are on that list but regardless lynching one of those 3 is better day 1 play. He seems to be relatively settled on these three musketeers. At this point he's pulling out big guns and calling people suspicious. On January 07 2012 19:26 syllogism wrote: Wiggles: I think palmar is likely scum. It's pretty much impossible to assign probabilities to flips so I'm not even going to bother, but I guess I could say that I don't think they are particularly more likely to flip scum than palmar. The issue is where we are if they don't flip scum; losing palmar day 1 would definitely be much worse. We can probably lynch him tomorrow if he keeps playing like this. See this is where you lose me syllogism. Yes palmar flipped scum but like if you think he's scum you should lynch him ._. On January 07 2012 20:14 syllogism wrote: Do you think we should lynch him over erandorr if the answer doesn't make sense? "him" is jackal (talking to palm) On January 07 2012 23:21 syllogism wrote: Haha jackal we can only lynch one person and there are 3 or maybe 4 people who are extremely likely to all flip scum (erandorr, risk, palmar and possibly tyrran) his revised scumlist now includes Palmar. On January 08 2012 07:02 syllogism wrote: Day ends in 3 hours, but within an hour or two is fine. I'm fine with lynching either erandorr/risk here it narrows to the two wagons. On January 08 2012 08:32 syllogism wrote: How many do we have around? I'm fine with switching to erandorr, I'm virtually certain that erandorr is scum and only very convinced that risk is On January 08 2012 08:45 syllogism wrote: I haven't been pushing the meta case against Erandorr, but he really wouldn't play like this as town. He even signed up for TL mafia L so he isn't burned out or busy; he just loathes playing as scum. In election mafia he hydraed with curu and refused to post at all due to rolling scum. Yesterday he lied about being sleepy, while I know he had been and still was playing dota 2 and kept playing for at least an hour after making the post (I went to sleep by that point). Such pure meta cases are annoying to push and I thought the case against risk was better in terms of it actually constituting as "playing mafia". But erandorr really can't be town So here we have what I view as the crux of the issue. Syllo here is talking out of two different sides of his mouth. One side says that he's virtually certain erandorr is scum, and only very convinced risk is. It says he hasn't pushed a meta case against Erandorr, then pushes a meta case. In the same post, he says pushing a case like tha tis annoying and he thought ... the case against risk was better of what does this what i don't even On January 08 2012 08:45 syllogism wrote: risk was better in terms of it actually constituting as "playing mafia". But erandorr really can't be town >.> On January 08 2012 08:58 syllogism wrote: No I still think risk is scum, but I'm pretty much certain that erandorr is. >.> So I'm not voting syllo yet. I don't really understand what he's talking about in these posts but it looks like scum trying to cover his ass. I'm sure he has a realistic situation, right syllo? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
before: Here's where he's like "yeah man Erandorr not a good lynch" WHAT I MEANT: Here's where he's like "yeah man Erandorr IS a good lynch" | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 09 2012 09:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: With townies like you, who needs mafia. 1) Zeph is indeed being a moron. There are no good plans that don't depend on excellent town who scumhunt. VTs win the game, Blues are just along for the ride and help out in close lategames. Also scum PRs have a much better than 1/17 chance of hitting their roles. 2) This is still a bad plan we should just scumhunt like normal ._. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 09 2012 18:21 Refallen wrote: And with that, assuming AoD targetted syllo, we can also clear syllo from not being an angel. Also, seeing how he was the very first to call out Palmar after his kite comment, I don't think he's demon either. yes you're right that was some serious analysis calling Palmar out for saying "i'm a kite" is pro town | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 05 2012 22:25 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: lol sorry, I actually just got home and forgot this game started. Initially I thought I'd just finish up Responsibility mafia then jump over here but that doesn't seem like its going to happen anytime soon. I just need some time to catch up. ok so he lurked a bit On January 06 2012 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Sorry, I had to finish up some business in the Responsibility game. Now that that is over this game gets my full attention. guys he's still lurking just hold on a sec On January 06 2012 15:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am off from work tomorrow and I plan to catch up then. I just finished like 3 hours of reading for responsibility after getting home from work. Tomorrow afternoon I will catch up, post, and give my thoughts. ok guys TOMORROW, TOMORROW he will sto the lurk. On January 07 2012 23:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Sorry for my inactivity, I really I am. Some stuff came up that took up my supposed free time to post both yesterday and the day before. I have work 10-6 EST today (Currently 9:56) but after that I will try to deliver and post a lot more, this isn't going to be a game full of excuses from me. But until then I will cast a vote on the current vote leader. My logic here is that a lynch is better than a no lynch in terms of information and analysis, although it doesn't look like we will make the lynch cutoff and I want you guys to have that opportunity assuming I don't get back here in time today. ##Vote: Erandorr ._. So you know what RoL I don't like that you lurked for all of D1. That being said, that alone will not implicate you for anything. I think it's worth noting here that uh... you didn't actually vote Erandorr. woo-hoo. This during the last-minute scramble: On January 08 2012 09:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am going to try to read the last few pages and get an idea of whats happening since there isn't much time left, if anyone wants to summarize feel free. On January 08 2012 09:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I did and I cast my vote for Erandorr through the PM thing. Here is my reasoning. Switching from target A to target B is highly unlikely to ever hit a scum barring a DT check (This is more true in town/scum no third faction games, but still holds true here) no second bandwagon should gain momentum if its scum because the scum wouldn't let it happen. That being said, since my other post only about 6-7 pages have happened in game iirc and somehow risk.nuke attained a near majority which is insane. There is no way you are going to hit scum with that kind of rapid vote switch and in fact, that somewhat incriminates Erandorr because why else would a vote switch happen so rapidly? I read some of Risk's posts, admittedly not all, but he didn't seem too bad from my point of view, I don't know what the hell palmar is getting at. But I only inferred that from his posts on pages 34-36ish since I know we are nearing the deadline. Lastly, I read Blazinghand's analysis of Erandorr which seemed good, in the sense that I agree that Erandorr comes off as a disconcerned scum on D1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=37#723 So I am keeping my vote on Erandorr, anyone on the risk.nuke lynch is suspect for jumping ship so hard, if erandorr flips scum then Palmar deserves a hard look. I also have a plan I have been considering, I plan on enlightening you all during the night phase assuming I can flesh out all the weird possibilities in this set up. At last we come to the first real post. First, you claim to have voted Erandorr when you have not at all. A simple mistake, but not a good start. He makes some reasonable points but I consider this a somewhat unsupported "vote" and yet still no vote. On January 08 2012 09:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Stupid bot never PMed me back, I sent like 2-3 votes. On January 08 2012 09:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Yeah, but I sent my new vote after the lynch rofl. Whoops! I thought it ended at 8:00, didn't realize it ended at a 45, how irritating. On January 08 2012 09:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: My first vote didn't have purgatory in the subject heading, because it doesn't say that in the OP, my second vote was a mess up, and the third vote was too late. On January 08 2012 09:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: For some reason, I am not thinking right now. I knew that lol, until today all I have been doing is reading and analyzing the set up and trying to figure out how valid some plan I have is. ._. OK we're still in honest mistake territory, but as you can see RoL's D1 play was somewhat underwhelming. Does this paint him as scummy to me? Sort of. Maybe he WAS too busy to stop by and kept on telling us that he was catching up. Maybe he DID send a bunch of bad messages to zbot. Maybe he really didn't understand the voting situation. Maybe all he's been doing is analyzing the setup. I'll buy that, MAYBE, if he's got something good to say. So Mr. RoL what you got? Well although his suggestion was ultimately not implemented, since it's the only thing he's really talked about, that's what I'm gonna look at. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright so I said I had a plan and I aim to flesh it out. I will like to section this into three areas, Intro, Mechanics, and Discussion. I feel that is the most direct and simplest way in which to understand this plan. All criticisms are welcome, but I am sure I have thought of most concerns and justified them somehow. Intro This plan is essentially a mass role claim, but for a reason. Here is how I tend to implement it. Everyone claims not their role, but there color. We should have 4 blues (Townies with powers) and then 13 green (townie without power) on the off chance we end up with 5 blues they all claim their actual roles, when we see which roles have conflict we act from there. In this game one of the things heavily working against the town is status quo and the flow of information. The Angels have someone who kills without showing alignment while the Demons have the capacity to block the flip of a day lynch. What this plan does is preempts that decline in information because we know (roughly) all alignments before shit hits the fan. For example, if the Angels annihilate one of the blue power roles and it has never been claimed they can now safely claim the power role, basically just one of the detective type roles, but either way at that point they KNOW they are safe from a counter claim. In this scenario we put all the information out there knowing that it benefits us more than anyone else. The way I intend this to work is we all claim which forces the demons and angels into a bad position. No information is truly hidden, and we have just taken away 4 possibilities as candidate for scum either way. which means in a group of 15 players, 6 are now scum. that's a 40% chance of hitting scum through sheer guessing. The real benefit comes in how the mechanics interact. ಠ_ಠ Ok, I get that the concealed lynch / concealed kills thing is a problem. I get that. I get that as the game goes on and more people die, things will get harder for the town. I also get that a concealed lynch destroys a huge amount of information. The DT can't breadcrumb his findings if he gets conceal-shot by the AoD, etc. However, this just means we need to be careful about roleclaims and be effective during our early days when we haven't had more doubt introduced into our reads by flipless deaths. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Actually this looks respectably bad for the angels. I'm not sure I buy the "demons will always jail the blues" line but I can get how the Angels will try to kill off corrupted towns instead of blues with their Acolyte, maybe. But there are a lot of nights where there isn't a corrupted townie around! And on those nights the Angels get plenty of KP.Mechanics This is the part that takes more to understand and was a lot more effort to think around (hopefully) all the possibilities. One of the biggest is obviously the Angelic Acolyte who gets an extra KP if he correctly guesses townie with dark powers, corrupted townie, or Demon when performing his stalk action. This only really affects a minority of townies, namely our blues and those minority who become corrupted. I think we can counter this by using banish amongst the claimed blues as a form of protection, and at the same time the Demon's will be given incentive to also use their transport as a form of protection and a dual threat. Firstly, it increases the chance of blocking an Angel KP which the Demons want to do, secondly it takes a blue power out of action for the night. This is fine because it still maintains our voting power in the day time. This causes there to only be a 50% success rate of the angels target into the blue circle. At the same time if the demons wish to corrupt a blue and jack their vote, they have a 66% chance of not hitting a jailor block. At the same time regular townies can be corrupted and they should claim. The longer the game draws out for the angels the more they NEED to kill corrupted townies/demons before the lynch against them is completely controlled. We can further increase this problem by having several people claim corrupt every day so the Angels can't be sure if they are going to use their extra KP effectively. The more dire the corrupted situation becomes the less they can focus on blues, and that gives us more confirmed townies with less players alive, further shrinking the town player pool narrowing down the angel/demons in the townie section of the group. So in the end the Demons would benefit highly by managing to corrupt our blues because it will be harder for Angels to kill them, but they also benefit by spreading out corruption and forcing the Angels to spread KP to avoid being overwhelmed as the game progresses. I also don't like the idea of trading out our blue roles for a "confirmed voting block". Our blues will be largely unable to act due to roleblocks, getting shot, and roleblocking themselves rather than demons. We're giving up most of our blue power for something like this. The last thing is I'm not really sure how this makes things worse for the demons. They're still gonna be doing the same thing, which is corrupting people and biding their time. In fact, given that it will be harder for Angels to kill corrupted towns, as RoL NOTES, THIS MAKES THE DEMONS STRONGER. The corrupted situation will get out of hand and our demon DT will be roleblocked plenty of times, and eventually, even if we kill off an angel or two this is bad news for town. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Discussion Here is where we discuss the pros/cons of the strategy. First I must clear something up. Speed is paramount to the success of this strategy. We need ALL the blue claims before the day post to ensure integrity because as soon as the first annihilation happens no claim can be trusted as without fault. There is a reason why semiclosed set ups are used in the huge majority of TL games. Knowing a role count makes the game progressively more broken and doesn't allow for any sort of fake claim. The annihilation (angel) and lynch hiding (demon) mechanics are clearly in place to allow for fake claims and a downswing in truly knowable information. We need to preempt this disadvantage and get information out in the public before it is untrustworthy. The downside to this plan? An increase in Angel KP and the decrease in blue role efficiency due to purgatory inflicting powers such as transport and banish. The pros I have pretty much outlined earlier. We know all roles, we end up with 4 confirmed townies and a narrowing of the scum field to a 40% chance. While our blues powers are semi neutralized their voting powers remain intact and unless the Demons want to chance it, incorruptible. This eliminates fake claims and drastically helps out with the decreasing information we will have throughout the game by knowing someones *likely* role before they die while having a confirmed group. Overall this looks like it will increase the rate at which angels will kill blue roles, and will buy the demons more time to win. Our Demon Hunter seems to be on the ball. He shot Palmar (I think; maybe it was the acolyte). I'm not particuarly interested in giving the scum teams any advantages here. I think that mass roleclaim is dumb and will hurt the town, and I think RoL is scum trying to get us to do something dumb. I think this plan is basically a pro-demon plan. Others agree with me. Let's examine RoL's defense of his plan. On January 09 2012 00:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: He can't choose "townie". All town claims are safe until they claim corrupted. Bluelightz makes a dumb objection and gets shot down. On January 09 2012 00:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I didn't have time and you are misreading. I said if Erandorr flips scum then the shipjumpers should be suspect. The principle is still true. Without a DT check the chance of a vote switch hitting a townie without something significant happening is so incredibly low because mafia wouldn't let you so easily switch from a townie to a mafia. I don't know what else there is to explain. Erandorr was the initial, Risk,nuke was the switch. The switch is less likely to be scum than the original. For all the time spent "reading the thread" and "catching up" RoL doesn't seem to have, um, read the thread. It's great that he accuses someone of misreading while misreading ;_; On January 09 2012 03:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Most of the posts I read don't fully understand the game set up when attacking the plan. Secondly, from what I can tell at the time risk.nuke looked like the switch, not the initial. That could be my fault though. Either way in a two faction game assuming the initial is scum then the switch would be supported by one and neutral by the other still giving a switch a higher risk of being town. I explained how a switch tell was weaker in two faction vs one but still valid. I can't type much more because I'm on my shitty cell phone and my breaks almost over but read the rules and under how the acolyte works. He CAN'T kill townies, just townie with power, corrupt townie, or demon. Therefore KNOWN blues are a high priority target since they are a confirmed voting power which is the only threat to angels since they can't die through night actions. Some people being dumb about the acolyte. Which posts are he talking about? certainly not this one: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 00:37 Tyrran wrote: What makes you think that angels will want to target the blues ? They are pretty much immune to blues, appart from the seer which will be desintegrated by the Angel of Death if he ever claim ( or i guess you could banish him, but then he would be pretty useless). So angel will just randomly shoot into townies, who knows, they migth even get a lucky shot on a demon, they migth also kill townies with dark power if they are not banished. Secondly you suppose that Demons are going to want to use their banish defensively. If they want to do this, then Demons will just banish the Demon Hunter ( which will NEVER EVER be targeted by angels, because he basically works for them). If they have corrupted someone, they can also banish the sage, and just enjoy they extra vote ! They are not going to banish someone in order to 'protect' him. Your plan gives HUGE information to both scum faction, and town actually gains very little from it. I dont like it. I think it favors Demons way too much ( because they can protect themself way more easely using their power knowing who the blues are), it also helps angels a bit ( they can kill the seer, they do not risk killing the demon hunter by mistake). But town is definitively the big loser in your plan. Now tyrran, he is not my boy, and he's played like dick this game, but the man has a point. Whether he's an Angel or Demon that doesn't like this plan, or a town player who's figured out that it's like totes anti-town, he laid out legitimate arguments and RoL just ignored them. These aren't misunderstandings of the acolyte's powers-- this is legitimate criticism. On January 09 2012 03:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Also, no one except scum has an incentive to fake claim blue so whoever said that is an idiot. Any lie is inherently antitown and should be treated as such. No blue would hide in greens because that would be antitown and stupid. On January 09 2012 03:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and blues DON'T claim role unless there are 5 of them. And the mafia can only feasibly claim two of them, the seer and the sage or w/e the two that check alignment which would still 50/50 our demon hunter. On January 09 2012 06:41 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: This game isn't about blues, its about killing scum. Our blues can help with that, but any plan around them is stupid. I view them as confirmable voting power in this game which is MUCH more important than anything else. This game is about scumhunting, or blues are actually relatively weak. We have a jailer, two detectives that can only detect half the scum, so if they see someone scummy they may be right and not even get an answer, and a vigilante who can't kill half the scum but can shoot everyday. The vig is good, but rest of the power roles are relatively weak. The stronger element is their threat as a voting entity. So a couple clarifications here, but basically RoL is willing to give up the Blue roles in return for some confirmed voting power. On January 09 2012 07:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Once again, issues arise from illiteracy. As I said earlier, the blue roles NEVER claim their role, just their color. This prevents effective use of banishment/Transport and turns it into just a guessing game. The angels need to kill a confirmed voting black because they can't let four confirmed fucking townies sit around all game and hope for the best. Point two, demons won't know who the demon hunter is to properly banish him on top of which as stated earlier, he acts as a permanent town aligned voting block. The goal of the demons is to eventually control the vote, and that's how they win. They have no KP. The angels need to prevent a solid voting block from forming. I don't know what about this comes off as that complex. The scum teams get huge information regardless. They KNOW who they kill, this way we also know who they kill. This comes back to the annihilate mechanic. We open ourselves up to fakeclaims by not mass claiming before fake claims are possible. I don't think you get how a no flip mechanic works in this game, or in any game. When the mafia knows the information and we don't, we are at a disadvantage. When the Mafia can't fake claim, the town is at an advantage. When we confirm players as absolutely innocent, guess what? We win again. After today the mafia can safely fake claim and nothing is confirmable, my plan preempts this issue. The idea that fake claim is the problem here is, well, a problem. Blues just shouldn't claim ._. He makes some good points as to why this is bad for angels, but it continues to look like this plan just helps demon. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: No, any more than 4 blue claims we have everyone claim and kill the contradictions. And if the scum decide to jetisson one likely-to-be-killed scum player? ._. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: No mafia has the opportunity to claim a blue role without instantly getting caught and killed. There is a counter claim, we will figure it out, and the scum faction loses a player and all we lose is 1 confirmed townie and a voting block in the worst case scenario for us, but regardless they lose the mafia. We also lose the anonymity withing the blues that your plan relies on to be safe. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: A voting block threatens angels more than blues. But more importantly it doesn't matter. Its a double edged sword, they are shutting down blue powers which threaten them while also inadvertently protecting them which preserves there voting power. The issue here is that this helps the demons find the blue that threatens them, the demon hunter, while upping the ante on the angels. It's a good for demons, bad for angels sort of thing. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Because their goal is to control voting power, and controlling voting power that the town and the angels will hesitate to kill is beneficial to them. ._. or they could just corrupt towns and be substantially better off. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Feasibly yes, but as soon as you guys realize its beneficial and the blues claim then every town aligned player should understand how detrimental lying is and therefore not do it. this is a fair point. town aligned players should not lie. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: It's called analysis. We have a smaller pool (-4 confirmed townies from suspects) to choose from and we can figure out the rest with skilled analysis. In the worst case scenario, it is possible that we could lose all the blues in two nights, but that still gives us AT LEAST one day of confirmed townies. If even one hit fails due to purgatory they are fucked. The angels have to maintain a status quo among Corrupted townies and eliminate demons, a blue circle should be a second priority for them. by day 3 in your perfect 4/4 blue dead scenario the demons have +3 corrupted townies and effectively control the lynch winning the game. If the Angels intend on winning they can't let that happen. we should be able to analyze without using this dumb roleclaim strat. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: They know if someone is faking if they are faking it, and they will lose that player instantly or after taking one blue, either way a fair exchange. Remember that this point RoL doesn't know Palmar is gonna get shot and flip scum, even though Palmar is likely D2 lynch-- he would have been a fine sacrifice for the demon/angel team, since he's dead anyways, to force claims. ._. Lastly, as the tide turns against him: On January 09 2012 08:31 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am heading out for the night. On January 09 2012 08:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: It starts with one person, but if no one takes that step then it doesn't matter. No one bother claiming now there isn't enough time and we can't guarantee all the blues are active now. On January 09 2012 09:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: With townies like you, who needs mafia. Zeph knows what's up. RoL doesn't actually leave, then proceeds to bail afterwards, saying nothing and disappearing into the mist whence he came. RoL has made no contributions and pushed a pro-scum plan. He even got a couple of morons to claim vt ._. He's lurking, and was hustling us pretty hard D1. I think he's a great D2 lynch. He's never been helpful and he has actively tried to hurt us. ##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
I wanna see some posts | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [RoL lurking] + So, here's RoL. On January 05 2012 22:25 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: lol sorry, I actually just got home and forgot this game started. Initially I thought I'd just finish up Responsibility mafia then jump over here but that doesn't seem like its going to happen anytime soon. I just need some time to catch up. ok so he lurked a bit On January 06 2012 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Sorry, I had to finish up some business in the Responsibility game. Now that that is over this game gets my full attention. guys he's still lurking just hold on a sec On January 06 2012 15:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am off from work tomorrow and I plan to catch up then. I just finished like 3 hours of reading for responsibility after getting home from work. Tomorrow afternoon I will catch up, post, and give my thoughts. ok guys TOMORROW, TOMORROW he will sto the lurk. On January 07 2012 23:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Sorry for my inactivity, I really I am. Some stuff came up that took up my supposed free time to post both yesterday and the day before. I have work 10-6 EST today (Currently 9:56) but after that I will try to deliver and post a lot more, this isn't going to be a game full of excuses from me. But until then I will cast a vote on the current vote leader. My logic here is that a lynch is better than a no lynch in terms of information and analysis, although it doesn't look like we will make the lynch cutoff and I want you guys to have that opportunity assuming I don't get back here in time today. ##Vote: Erandorr ._. So you know what RoL I don't like that you lurked for all of D1. That being said, that alone will not implicate you for anything. I think it's worth noting here that uh... you didn't actually vote Erandorr. woo-hoo. + Show Spoiler [RoL's 'voting' D1] + This during the last-minute scramble: On January 08 2012 09:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am going to try to read the last few pages and get an idea of whats happening since there isn't much time left, if anyone wants to summarize feel free. On January 08 2012 09:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I did and I cast my vote for Erandorr through the PM thing. Here is my reasoning. Switching from target A to target B is highly unlikely to ever hit a scum barring a DT check (This is more true in town/scum no third faction games, but still holds true here) no second bandwagon should gain momentum if its scum because the scum wouldn't let it happen. That being said, since my other post only about 6-7 pages have happened in game iirc and somehow risk.nuke attained a near majority which is insane. There is no way you are going to hit scum with that kind of rapid vote switch and in fact, that somewhat incriminates Erandorr because why else would a vote switch happen so rapidly? I read some of Risk's posts, admittedly not all, but he didn't seem too bad from my point of view, I don't know what the hell palmar is getting at. But I only inferred that from his posts on pages 34-36ish since I know we are nearing the deadline. Lastly, I read Blazinghand's analysis of Erandorr which seemed good, in the sense that I agree that Erandorr comes off as a disconcerned scum on D1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=37#723 So I am keeping my vote on Erandorr, anyone on the risk.nuke lynch is suspect for jumping ship so hard, if erandorr flips scum then Palmar deserves a hard look. I also have a plan I have been considering, I plan on enlightening you all during the night phase assuming I can flesh out all the weird possibilities in this set up. At last we come to the first real post. First, you claim to have voted Erandorr when you have not at all. A simple mistake, but not a good start. He makes some reasonable points but I consider this a somewhat unsupported "vote" and yet still no vote. On January 08 2012 09:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Stupid bot never PMed me back, I sent like 2-3 votes. On January 08 2012 09:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Yeah, but I sent my new vote after the lynch rofl. Whoops! I thought it ended at 8:00, didn't realize it ended at a 45, how irritating. On January 08 2012 09:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: My first vote didn't have purgatory in the subject heading, because it doesn't say that in the OP, my second vote was a mess up, and the third vote was too late. On January 08 2012 09:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: For some reason, I am not thinking right now. I knew that lol, until today all I have been doing is reading and analyzing the set up and trying to figure out how valid some plan I have is. ._. OK we're still in honest mistake territory, but as you can see RoL's D1 play was somewhat underwhelming. Does this paint him as scummy to me? Sort of. Maybe he WAS too busy to stop by and kept on telling us that he was catching up. Maybe he DID send a bunch of bad messages to zbot. Maybe he really didn't understand the voting situation. Maybe all he's been doing is analyzing the setup. I'll buy that, MAYBE, if he's got something good to say. + Show Spoiler [Rol's shitty idea] + So Mr. RoL what you got? Well although his suggestion was ultimately not implemented, since it's the only thing he's really talked about, that's what I'm gonna look at. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright so I said I had a plan and I aim to flesh it out. I will like to section this into three areas, Intro, Mechanics, and Discussion. I feel that is the most direct and simplest way in which to understand this plan. All criticisms are welcome, but I am sure I have thought of most concerns and justified them somehow. Intro This plan is essentially a mass role claim, but for a reason. Here is how I tend to implement it. Everyone claims not their role, but there color. We should have 4 blues (Townies with powers) and then 13 green (townie without power) on the off chance we end up with 5 blues they all claim their actual roles, when we see which roles have conflict we act from there. In this game one of the things heavily working against the town is status quo and the flow of information. The Angels have someone who kills without showing alignment while the Demons have the capacity to block the flip of a day lynch. What this plan does is preempts that decline in information because we know (roughly) all alignments before shit hits the fan. For example, if the Angels annihilate one of the blue power roles and it has never been claimed they can now safely claim the power role, basically just one of the detective type roles, but either way at that point they KNOW they are safe from a counter claim. In this scenario we put all the information out there knowing that it benefits us more than anyone else. The way I intend this to work is we all claim which forces the demons and angels into a bad position. No information is truly hidden, and we have just taken away 4 possibilities as candidate for scum either way. which means in a group of 15 players, 6 are now scum. that's a 40% chance of hitting scum through sheer guessing. The real benefit comes in how the mechanics interact. ಠ_ಠ Ok, I get that the concealed lynch / concealed kills thing is a problem. I get that. I get that as the game goes on and more people die, things will get harder for the town. I also get that a concealed lynch destroys a huge amount of information. The DT can't breadcrumb his findings if he gets conceal-shot by the AoD, etc. However, this just means we need to be careful about roleclaims and be effective during our early days when we haven't had more doubt introduced into our reads by flipless deaths. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Actually this looks respectably bad for the angels. I'm not sure I buy the "demons will always jail the blues" line but I can get how the Angels will try to kill off corrupted towns instead of blues with their Acolyte, maybe. But there are a lot of nights where there isn't a corrupted townie around! And on those nights the Angels get plenty of KP.Mechanics This is the part that takes more to understand and was a lot more effort to think around (hopefully) all the possibilities. One of the biggest is obviously the Angelic Acolyte who gets an extra KP if he correctly guesses townie with dark powers, corrupted townie, or Demon when performing his stalk action. This only really affects a minority of townies, namely our blues and those minority who become corrupted. I think we can counter this by using banish amongst the claimed blues as a form of protection, and at the same time the Demon's will be given incentive to also use their transport as a form of protection and a dual threat. Firstly, it increases the chance of blocking an Angel KP which the Demons want to do, secondly it takes a blue power out of action for the night. This is fine because it still maintains our voting power in the day time. This causes there to only be a 50% success rate of the angels target into the blue circle. At the same time if the demons wish to corrupt a blue and jack their vote, they have a 66% chance of not hitting a jailor block. At the same time regular townies can be corrupted and they should claim. The longer the game draws out for the angels the more they NEED to kill corrupted townies/demons before the lynch against them is completely controlled. We can further increase this problem by having several people claim corrupt every day so the Angels can't be sure if they are going to use their extra KP effectively. The more dire the corrupted situation becomes the less they can focus on blues, and that gives us more confirmed townies with less players alive, further shrinking the town player pool narrowing down the angel/demons in the townie section of the group. So in the end the Demons would benefit highly by managing to corrupt our blues because it will be harder for Angels to kill them, but they also benefit by spreading out corruption and forcing the Angels to spread KP to avoid being overwhelmed as the game progresses. I also don't like the idea of trading out our blue roles for a "confirmed voting block". Our blues will be largely unable to act due to roleblocks, getting shot, and roleblocking themselves rather than demons. We're giving up most of our blue power for something like this. The last thing is I'm not really sure how this makes things worse for the demons. They're still gonna be doing the same thing, which is corrupting people and biding their time. In fact, given that it will be harder for Angels to kill corrupted towns, as RoL NOTES, THIS MAKES THE DEMONS STRONGER. The corrupted situation will get out of hand and our demon DT will be roleblocked plenty of times, and eventually, even if we kill off an angel or two this is bad news for town. On January 08 2012 23:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Discussion Here is where we discuss the pros/cons of the strategy. First I must clear something up. Speed is paramount to the success of this strategy. We need ALL the blue claims before the day post to ensure integrity because as soon as the first annihilation happens no claim can be trusted as without fault. There is a reason why semiclosed set ups are used in the huge majority of TL games. Knowing a role count makes the game progressively more broken and doesn't allow for any sort of fake claim. The annihilation (angel) and lynch hiding (demon) mechanics are clearly in place to allow for fake claims and a downswing in truly knowable information. We need to preempt this disadvantage and get information out in the public before it is untrustworthy. The downside to this plan? An increase in Angel KP and the decrease in blue role efficiency due to purgatory inflicting powers such as transport and banish. The pros I have pretty much outlined earlier. We know all roles, we end up with 4 confirmed townies and a narrowing of the scum field to a 40% chance. While our blues powers are semi neutralized their voting powers remain intact and unless the Demons want to chance it, incorruptible. This eliminates fake claims and drastically helps out with the decreasing information we will have throughout the game by knowing someones *likely* role before they die while having a confirmed group. Overall this looks like it will increase the rate at which angels will kill blue roles, and will buy the demons more time to win. Our Demon Hunter seems to be on the ball. He shot Palmar (I think; maybe it was the acolyte). I'm not particuarly interested in giving the scum teams any advantages here. I think that mass roleclaim is dumb and will hurt the town, and I think RoL is scum trying to get us to do something dumb. I think this plan is basically a pro-demon plan. Others agree with me. Let's examine RoL's defense of his plan. + Show Spoiler [RoL's defense of the plan] + On January 09 2012 00:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: He can't choose "townie". All town claims are safe until they claim corrupted. Bluelightz makes a dumb objection and gets shot down. On January 09 2012 00:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I didn't have time and you are misreading. I said if Erandorr flips scum then the shipjumpers should be suspect. The principle is still true. Without a DT check the chance of a vote switch hitting a townie without something significant happening is so incredibly low because mafia wouldn't let you so easily switch from a townie to a mafia. I don't know what else there is to explain. Erandorr was the initial, Risk,nuke was the switch. The switch is less likely to be scum than the original. For all the time spent "reading the thread" and "catching up" RoL doesn't seem to have, um, read the thread. It's great that he accuses someone of misreading while misreading ;_; On January 09 2012 03:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Most of the posts I read don't fully understand the game set up when attacking the plan. Secondly, from what I can tell at the time risk.nuke looked like the switch, not the initial. That could be my fault though. Either way in a two faction game assuming the initial is scum then the switch would be supported by one and neutral by the other still giving a switch a higher risk of being town. I explained how a switch tell was weaker in two faction vs one but still valid. I can't type much more because I'm on my shitty cell phone and my breaks almost over but read the rules and under how the acolyte works. He CAN'T kill townies, just townie with power, corrupt townie, or demon. Therefore KNOWN blues are a high priority target since they are a confirmed voting power which is the only threat to angels since they can't die through night actions. Some people being dumb about the acolyte. Which posts are he talking about? certainly not this one: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 00:37 Tyrran wrote: What makes you think that angels will want to target the blues ? They are pretty much immune to blues, appart from the seer which will be desintegrated by the Angel of Death if he ever claim ( or i guess you could banish him, but then he would be pretty useless). So angel will just randomly shoot into townies, who knows, they migth even get a lucky shot on a demon, they migth also kill townies with dark power if they are not banished. Secondly you suppose that Demons are going to want to use their banish defensively. If they want to do this, then Demons will just banish the Demon Hunter ( which will NEVER EVER be targeted by angels, because he basically works for them). If they have corrupted someone, they can also banish the sage, and just enjoy they extra vote ! They are not going to banish someone in order to 'protect' him. Your plan gives HUGE information to both scum faction, and town actually gains very little from it. I dont like it. I think it favors Demons way too much ( because they can protect themself way more easely using their power knowing who the blues are), it also helps angels a bit ( they can kill the seer, they do not risk killing the demon hunter by mistake). But town is definitively the big loser in your plan. Now tyrran, he is not my boy, and he's played like dick this game, but the man has a point. Whether he's an Angel or Demon that doesn't like this plan, or a town player who's figured out that it's like totes anti-town, he laid out legitimate arguments and RoL just ignored them. These aren't misunderstandings of the acolyte's powers-- this is legitimate criticism. On January 09 2012 03:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Also, no one except scum has an incentive to fake claim blue so whoever said that is an idiot. Any lie is inherently antitown and should be treated as such. No blue would hide in greens because that would be antitown and stupid. On January 09 2012 03:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and blues DON'T claim role unless there are 5 of them. And the mafia can only feasibly claim two of them, the seer and the sage or w/e the two that check alignment which would still 50/50 our demon hunter. On January 09 2012 06:41 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: This game isn't about blues, its about killing scum. Our blues can help with that, but any plan around them is stupid. I view them as confirmable voting power in this game which is MUCH more important than anything else. This game is about scumhunting, or blues are actually relatively weak. We have a jailer, two detectives that can only detect half the scum, so if they see someone scummy they may be right and not even get an answer, and a vigilante who can't kill half the scum but can shoot everyday. The vig is good, but rest of the power roles are relatively weak. The stronger element is their threat as a voting entity. So a couple clarifications here, but basically RoL is willing to give up the Blue roles in return for some confirmed voting power. On January 09 2012 07:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Once again, issues arise from illiteracy. As I said earlier, the blue roles NEVER claim their role, just their color. This prevents effective use of banishment/Transport and turns it into just a guessing game. The angels need to kill a confirmed voting black because they can't let four confirmed fucking townies sit around all game and hope for the best. Point two, demons won't know who the demon hunter is to properly banish him on top of which as stated earlier, he acts as a permanent town aligned voting block. The goal of the demons is to eventually control the vote, and that's how they win. They have no KP. The angels need to prevent a solid voting block from forming. I don't know what about this comes off as that complex. The scum teams get huge information regardless. They KNOW who they kill, this way we also know who they kill. This comes back to the annihilate mechanic. We open ourselves up to fakeclaims by not mass claiming before fake claims are possible. I don't think you get how a no flip mechanic works in this game, or in any game. When the mafia knows the information and we don't, we are at a disadvantage. When the Mafia can't fake claim, the town is at an advantage. When we confirm players as absolutely innocent, guess what? We win again. After today the mafia can safely fake claim and nothing is confirmable, my plan preempts this issue. The idea that fake claim is the problem here is, well, a problem. Blues just shouldn't claim ._. He makes some good points as to why this is bad for angels, but it continues to look like this plan just helps demon. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: No, any more than 4 blue claims we have everyone claim and kill the contradictions. And if the scum decide to jetisson one likely-to-be-killed scum player? ._. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: No mafia has the opportunity to claim a blue role without instantly getting caught and killed. There is a counter claim, we will figure it out, and the scum faction loses a player and all we lose is 1 confirmed townie and a voting block in the worst case scenario for us, but regardless they lose the mafia. We also lose the anonymity withing the blues that your plan relies on to be safe. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: A voting block threatens angels more than blues. But more importantly it doesn't matter. Its a double edged sword, they are shutting down blue powers which threaten them while also inadvertently protecting them which preserves there voting power. The issue here is that this helps the demons find the blue that threatens them, the demon hunter, while upping the ante on the angels. It's a good for demons, bad for angels sort of thing. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Because their goal is to control voting power, and controlling voting power that the town and the angels will hesitate to kill is beneficial to them. ._. or they could just corrupt towns and be substantially better off. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Feasibly yes, but as soon as you guys realize its beneficial and the blues claim then every town aligned player should understand how detrimental lying is and therefore not do it. this is a fair point. town aligned players should not lie. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: It's called analysis. We have a smaller pool (-4 confirmed townies from suspects) to choose from and we can figure out the rest with skilled analysis. In the worst case scenario, it is possible that we could lose all the blues in two nights, but that still gives us AT LEAST one day of confirmed townies. If even one hit fails due to purgatory they are fucked. The angels have to maintain a status quo among Corrupted townies and eliminate demons, a blue circle should be a second priority for them. by day 3 in your perfect 4/4 blue dead scenario the demons have +3 corrupted townies and effectively control the lynch winning the game. If the Angels intend on winning they can't let that happen. we should be able to analyze without using this dumb roleclaim strat. On January 09 2012 07:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: They know if someone is faking if they are faking it, and they will lose that player instantly or after taking one blue, either way a fair exchange. Remember that this point RoL doesn't know Palmar is gonna get shot and flip scum, even though Palmar is likely D2 lynch-- he would have been a fine sacrifice for the demon/angel team, since he's dead anyways, to force claims. ._. + Show Spoiler [final minutes of n1] + Lastly, as the tide turns against him: On January 09 2012 08:31 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I am heading out for the night. On January 09 2012 08:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: It starts with one person, but if no one takes that step then it doesn't matter. No one bother claiming now there isn't enough time and we can't guarantee all the blues are active now. On January 09 2012 09:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: With townies like you, who needs mafia. Zeph knows what's up. RoL doesn't actually leave, then proceeds to bail afterwards, saying nothing and disappearing into the mist whence he came. RoL has made no contributions and pushed a pro-scum plan. He even got a couple of morons to claim vt ._. He's lurking, and was hustling us pretty hard D1. I think he's a great D2 lynch. He's never been helpful and he has actively tried to hurt us. ##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
1) lurk for most of d1 2) try to jump on the erandorr wagon and fail 3) push his bad plan I don't see how he's town | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 10 2012 08:11 layabout wrote: Do you think RoL beleived his plan was good or bad for town? ._. I think he's scum. I think he was pushing an anti-town plan. So... yes. I'm somewhat surprised you weren't able to put that together yourself. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Hey RoL did you believe in your plan? RoL: "yes" | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On January 10 2012 08:55 layabout wrote: do you understand my point? no your point is dumb he will always claim he thought his idea was a good idea. | ||
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