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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
##Vote L | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 21 2011 13:48 L wrote: Why would I ever give a blue read like that? Because there are 6 people in this game that I consider substantially better than me at reading roles (its really never been my strong point), and given that 25% of the game or more is anti-town, the probability of anti-town having 1 or 2 of those people is excessively high. List of people that I think are better than me at reading roles for future reference: 1. Foolishness 4. kitaman27 6. SamuelLJackson 13. Chezinu 16. BloodyC0bbler 17. LSB First off, when L is asked about fishing for blue roles, he responds that he did it because other players would have likely caught on. He then proceeded to list the six players better than him at role reading "for future reference". This list is completely irrelevant. He states that 25% of the game being scum means 1-2 of them on the list are probably scum. That is equivalent to selecting six random players and saying 1-2 are scum. He lists me and curu/sandro as being people with better blue reads than him, yet I've only ever played one game with him as a newbie and curu/sandro haven't even played any. He is likely just listing six of the most experienced players and immediately casting doubt on them from the start of the game. On December 22 2011 00:47 L wrote: RE: Metric I was hoping to be able to say it when I woke up, but the thread's been confirming how I thought the game would roll out since I went to sleep, so I want the trap to sit out there a bit more. Give it another hour and a bit. Next L comes up with this extremely long post about some Metric he came up with for catching scum. He acts as if he set up a trap to catch scum. The one problem? He never mentions anyone that he actually caught. This reminds me exactly of my "trap" in LotR mafia, where I tried to explain that I was trapping scum with the knowledge that I was Radfield's mason partner, yet never actually brought up anyone that I caught. He then proceeds to argue with Palmar about the win rate of town on day one. This is a common theme of L's play this game. He is more than willing to argue about things that have absolutely no impact on the game, yet when it comes to scum hunting, he really doesn't seem to care at all. After that, L decides to give his reads on every single player in the thread. It looks as if he is making a contribution, but he never follows through with any of his reads. The weirdest point comes when L insists that GM lied about his vig target. This makes absolutely no sense. GM posted his shot target when night actions would have been locked. Scum couldn't react to his target, so there is no reason not to post who he was targeting. He argues with me and chaoser that keeping the town in the dark was a good thing, but in reality L is only distracting the town with misdirection. He cares more about figuring out the night actions than finding who is scum. He tries to get himself out of it by asking other people to present a valid explanation of night actions, while knowing that only scum have the ability to know how everything turned out. When pressed for delivering a scum suspect, he promises to contribute later, but never does. He says he was looking through jackals filter and explains who Jackal thought was scum, but never explains who he thinks is scum. He mentions me as a good vig target on night two, without ever bringing me up previously, with his only reasoning being that my posts are "careful". Overall, L is more than willing to talk about things that don't matter, yet has no interest in finding scum. ##Vote L | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
Our first night we have 5 deaths. We all know Chaoser killed Palmar. 4 left. Then its Gmarshal, VisceraEyes, Jackal and Samuel. Here its gotten tricky and we've had lots of confusion figuring this out. I'm not going to go into who caused a lot of the confusion but I think scum tried to take advantage of a lucky situation and I think no one figured out quite what did happen here. I'd like to suggest my opinion on it which I feel very confident in. 4 people are left unaccounted for. GM, VE, Jackal and Sam. Now BC claimed he shot GM and was proven correct. That leaves 3 unaccounted for. Sam + Jackal I can see as mafia doing 2 kp. I feel like in a small group like this mafia while still 4 having any more then 2 kp would be pretty insane honestly. This is the point pretty much my whole theory relies on. What about VE then? I think he shot GM as well and simply had to die based on his type of Vig shot. I think this was hinted at quite a bit as well when VE told me if I didn't vote something bad would happen to me at night, I think he simply chose to use this ability on GM. Heres the logic that hasn't been explained yet I think. He Thought GM was lieing, because he had LSB's exact job. He was that suicide vig and he was named Overtly Righteous Vigilante or whatever it was called. So because of this it made sense for him to use his power on GM. This caused the confusion here and led to what I believe to have happened. This idea and some others simply lead to the fact mafia have 2kp. This is the point I'm trying to prove from this and what I think you should take out of it. Next we get into the 6 who died this last night. GGC, BC, Chaoser, Wiggles, Foolishness, WBG. This has been tricky to pin down as well. If we believe Mafia had 2 kp, I think its somewhat obvious they'd kill Chaoser a confirmed blue and Foolishness who was really breathing down WBG's back, this isn't too important I'm just picking two for mafia to have called. This leaves 4 kills uncalled for. Prplhz killed WBG, I think thats obvious. So now were at 3 kills left over. Theres no real way to tell for sure how they killed each other but I think its easy to go about it logically. This leaves BC, GGC, and Wiggles. I don't see a really logical way for them to have town killed each other except for with help. The chances that GGC killed BC who killed Wiggles who killed GGC is pretty ridiculously small. I think the best and obvious chance is that one of those 3 was killed by outside influence. This was when RoL claimed that he shot BC. I find this much more believable then any other alternative. GGC and Wiggles perhaps one targeted the other with a suicide vig or perhaps did something else that resulted in them being killed (perhaps both targeting BC). So, with mafia kp at 2, and these 3 left with no one claiming I think it only makes sense that someone killed one of the 3 outside of those 3, and if no one is countering RoL's claim I believe him and I think its proof enough that hes innocent. This is what my "proof" boils down to, and I wish it was more concrete, but I believed it was true and still do. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia. This is odd for two very short reasons: 1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name. 2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win. So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits. Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies. RE: Night actions The only piece of the puzzle that is now missing is how we close out the game. We know mafia have a RB. We know we have a maximum of 5 shots as town. If we lynch properly today, there will be 2 mafia left (assuming there's only a single traitor). That'll probably cut down their KP to 1. If that's the case, then their night hit will put us at 4:2. My question here ends up being what should we do with respect to the night hits. We'll have 5. It seems like the best idea would be to shoot 1,3 or 5 people. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On December 29 2011 09:43 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well then here's my proof. Its honestly not as bullet proof as I originally thought, but after thinking about it all day today I'm still quite happy with it. Our first night we have 5 deaths. We all know Chaoser killed Palmar. 4 left. Then its Gmarshal, VisceraEyes, Jackal and Samuel. Here its gotten tricky and we've had lots of confusion figuring this out. I'm not going to go into who caused a lot of the confusion but I think scum tried to take advantage of a lucky situation and I think no one figured out quite what did happen here. I'd like to suggest my opinion on it which I feel very confident in. 4 people are left unaccounted for. GM, VE, Jackal and Sam. Now BC claimed he shot GM and was proven correct. That leaves 3 unaccounted for. Sam + Jackal I can see as mafia doing 2 kp. I feel like in a small group like this mafia while still 4 having any more then 2 kp would be pretty insane honestly. This is the point pretty much my whole theory relies on. What about VE then? I think he shot GM as well and simply had to die based on his type of Vig shot. I think this was hinted at quite a bit as well when VE told me if I didn't vote something bad would happen to me at night, I think he simply chose to use this ability on GM. Heres the logic that hasn't been explained yet I think. He Thought GM was lieing, because he had LSB's exact job. He was that suicide vig and he was named Overtly Righteous Vigilante or whatever it was called. So because of this it made sense for him to use his power on GM. This caused the confusion here and led to what I believe to have happened. This idea and some others simply lead to the fact mafia have 2kp. This is the point I'm trying to prove from this and what I think you should take out of it. Next we get into the 6 who died this last night. GGC, BC, Chaoser, Wiggles, Foolishness, WBG. This has been tricky to pin down as well. If we believe Mafia had 2 kp, I think its somewhat obvious they'd kill Chaoser a confirmed blue and Foolishness who was really breathing down WBG's back, this isn't too important I'm just picking two for mafia to have called. This leaves 4 kills uncalled for. Prplhz killed WBG, I think thats obvious. So now were at 3 kills left over. Theres no real way to tell for sure how they killed each other but I think its easy to go about it logically. This leaves BC, GGC, and Wiggles. I don't see a really logical way for them to have town killed each other except for with help. The chances that GGC killed BC who killed Wiggles who killed GGC is pretty ridiculously small. I think the best and obvious chance is that one of those 3 was killed by outside influence. This was when RoL claimed that he shot BC. I find this much more believable then any other alternative. GGC and Wiggles perhaps one targeted the other with a suicide vig or perhaps did something else that resulted in them being killed (perhaps both targeting BC). So, with mafia kp at 2, and these 3 left with no one claiming I think it only makes sense that someone killed one of the 3 outside of those 3, and if no one is countering RoL's claim I believe him and I think its proof enough that hes innocent. This is what my "proof" boils down to, and I wish it was more concrete, but I believed it was true and still do. Two mistakes. The first is that GM supposedly shot RoL day 1, and that chez was rb'd that night. He claimed he isn't a vet, so how did he survive? The second is that mafia can call shots because they have kp. Shooting someone doesn't make you a townie. Shooting a mafia member does. Prplhz is either a vig or an sk, and I'd put my money on vig. Additionally, go read GGC's and Wiggle's filters; You'll find something interesting in there. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
BloodyC0bbler killed GMarshal. Your entire scenario exonerating RebirthOfLeGenD is just you assuming that mafia only has 2KP, frantically trying to explain this scenario without supporting it with any arguments at all, and then concluding that RebirthOfLeGenD shot BloodyC0bbler. RebirthOfLeGenD most likely shot BloodyC0bbler but that tells us nothing about his alignment because BloodyC0bbler flipped green. If you think you have proved that RebirthOfLeGenD is town, then why are you still voting him? You guys realize that we can't split between L and RebirthOfLeGenD even though they're both scum right? We need 5 votes to lynch a scum, we actually need to pile ALL of our 8 votes onto one single candidate or else scum can do a last second switch and force no lynch which will end the game. There are good arguments for both of these guys being scum so we need to pick a wagon and then go with it. This means that tomorrow people are going to pile votes on whoever has the most votes, no matter what they believe. Even a single town vote in the wrong place will end the game. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
On December 29 2011 10:04 L wrote: Two mistakes. The first is that GM supposedly shot RoL day 1, and that chez was rb'd that night. He claimed he isn't a vet, so how did he survive? The second is that mafia can call shots because they have kp. Shooting someone doesn't make you a townie. Shooting a mafia member does. Prplhz is either a vig or an sk, and I'd put my money on vig. Additionally, go read GGC's and Wiggle's filters; You'll find something interesting in there. GM was roleblocked for my first "mistake" your second point isn't really pointing out a mistake at all. I'll go read through their filter later I suppose. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
I'm going to ask L a question. @L What did you find in GGQ and Mr. Wiggles' filters that was interesting? | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
On December 29 2011 10:04 L wrote: Two mistakes. The first is that GM supposedly shot RoL day 1, and that chez was rb'd that night. He claimed he isn't a vet, so how did he survive? The second is that mafia can call shots because they have kp. Shooting someone doesn't make you a townie. Shooting a mafia member does. Prplhz is either a vig or an sk, and I'd put my money on vig. Additionally, go read GGC's and Wiggle's filters; You'll find something interesting in there. For the "First" mistake, GM was roleblocked I believe, which leaves either 2 RB's, or that Chez was lieing and is mafia, or that Chez is insane. Your "second" point isn't really a mistake. I'll read their filters later. This was what I was trying to post. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
On December 29 2011 10:12 prplhz wrote: @Liquid`Sheth BloodyC0bbler killed GMarshal. Your entire scenario exonerating RebirthOfLeGenD is just you assuming that mafia only has 2KP, frantically trying to explain this scenario without supporting it with any arguments at all, and then concluding that RebirthOfLeGenD shot BloodyC0bbler. RebirthOfLeGenD most likely shot BloodyC0bbler but that tells us nothing about his alignment because BloodyC0bbler flipped green. If you think you have proved that RebirthOfLeGenD is town, then why are you still voting him? You guys realize that we can't split between L and RebirthOfLeGenD even though they're both scum right? We need 5 votes to lynch a scum, we actually need to pile ALL of our 8 votes onto one single candidate or else scum can do a last second switch and force no lynch which will end the game. There are good arguments for both of these guys being scum so we need to pick a wagon and then go with it. This means that tomorrow people are going to pile votes on whoever has the most votes, no matter what they believe. Even a single town vote in the wrong place will end the game. I believe both BloodyC0bbler and VisceraEyes killed Gmarshal. If you believe RoL most likely shot BC then that means hes town.. unless your saying he just used a mafia KP. If that was the case, we'd have the scenario of 3 again, because no one is claiming another hit. So it does in fact prove that RoL is a town vigi or a SK or a mafia extra KP and the logical way to look at it is that hes a town vigi. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
 prplhz, I could be very wrong about RoL, but I think we are both pretty sure about L. RoL followed through with everything he posted, and BC one of the mafia shots if RoL is mafia, because I don't believe in scum vigis this game  more of a instinct but it makes L scummier then RoL to me.@L I really didn't connect the dots with this post. On December 21 2011 04:56 L wrote: RE: LSB You realize you *kinda* already did with your previous post, right? That section in particular makes a statement about triggers, and in particular says that town has triggers in an affirmative manner. You state this directly. The odd thing is that your post is structured to make it look like speculation, but you made an affirmative statement. This wasn't "Its possible that town has triggers too" it was "town has triggers too". The reason why I said *kinda* is that Chez said (and I haven't gone to the OP post yet to confirm) that mafia know some of the town roles. If that's the case, they might also know about some town conditional roles and be able to claim that they exist with certainty. So you're either mafia or you have a triggered role. And onto different matters: RE: Hindered comment from BumatLarge Yep. That's a good way of putting it. I haven't played in a shitton of time and I have no idea who most of the players are or if they'd benefit from extensive day 1 analysis. I also don't know if any of these triggers would be set off by some kind of explaining, or how the day 1 meta works anymore. Given all those things I figured it would be smarter to start off slow. So, if you push my accelerant idea, it would mean that at least some of the triggers activate powers that kill people. That doesn't, however, mean that there isn't the possibility for other triggered abilities. That should be pretty obvious. This was also an implicit roleclaim on my part which should only have been obvious to people with triggers themselves. But then you asked me to push more on the point, and stated that you were sad that I hadn't. This leads me to believe that you also have a triggered role and all of the above was obvious to you, but that my explanation might activate your trigger, or that you wanted a claim out of me. And that's berry interesting because asides from chez claiming traitor, it seems like all the people who have put information about their role into the game implicitly or explicitly thusfar have triggers to their role. This means we're going to hit a situation wherein we're going to have fucking ugly dt and medic claims with triggers and shit to sort through. FUCK. I thought I was pretty clear about hinting towards a power role and wanting to use it on you. I would think a normal townie would follow through with what I ask of them if they think I'm town. I don't think there was much harm in giving this a shot if you were town, as opposed to you misreading me and... something else happening? I did make mistakes with my little experiment to see who would get rage at me, (WBG as mafia), but I probably woul not have shot you if you id yell at me. You didn't. Now foolishness very clearly hit you and you are in the same position that you say is damning to RoL. Thats two strikes from my perspective, to RoL's one. I'll switch my vote to RoL if L is not going to get lynched. But I'd feel much better if we were all on L and I would be wrong about sheth. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 29 2011 09:55 L wrote: RE: Votes on me. I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia. This is odd for two very short reasons: 1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name. 2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win. So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits. Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies. oh so now we're the scum team because we decided to vote for you? How about this one: On December 22 2011 06:33 L wrote: 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. bum goes from huge content and very town to doing relatively little and playing very conciliatory? Do you have no comments on the case made against you rather than just calling us scum for bringing it up? You seem to try to pass it off as being the target of Foolishness's shot, but there has been much more than you never address. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
##Unvote RebirthOfLeGenD ##Vote L | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Chezinu has been away for 6 days straight. We need all 5 town votes to survive today. If Chezinu is town then this game is already lost. That means that either Chezinu is scum or we lose anyway. Is this a very compelling argument for everybody switching to Chezinu or what? | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On December 29 2011 11:18 kitaman27 wrote: oh so now we're the scum team because we decided to vote for you? How about this one: bum goes from huge content and very town to doing relatively little and playing very conciliatory? Do you have no comments on the case made against you rather than just calling us scum for bringing it up? You seem to try to pass it off as being the target of Foolishness's shot, but there has been much more than you never address. Bum stopped posting content midway through the game after the majority of day 1 analysis ended. Go read his filter. He's now claiming that he crumbed that he's wanted to hit me all game, which was the EXACT OPPOSITE of what he was claiming day 1 when he supposedly made the claim. If that isn't a straight up lie, I don't know what is. What else, exactly, didn't I address? Feel free to bring it up. The entire argument against me now revolves around the fact that there are potentially multiple roleblockers which vindicates RoL(???) and that I was shot last night. I wasn't. We have a near 99% confirmed mafia in RoL and you're throwing shit at me after sitting on your thumbs all game. So no, Its not about voting for me. Its about voting for me - after I pinned your mafia buddy down - using logic WHICH DOUBLY INCRIMINATES YOUR BUDDY. We 100% need to lynch someone today, but we need to hit a mafia member. If you lynch me, we hit 4:3, probably with 2 mafia hits. remaining. At max, if there's a mafia RB, there are 3 hits you can put out. If mafia does have a medic or a second RB, that means 2 kills maximum if all 3 hits are available, but that's if all of the hits are allowed due to triggers and there's no overlap in the shots. So basically we're likely to only be able to shoot 1 mafia during the night, which puts us at 2:2, which is a loss. Now do you get why foolishness would be RB'd and a train driven at me asap afterwards? Now do you get why this is a pretty obvious mafia game ender? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On December 29 2011 11:54 prplhz wrote: Okay I didn't really want to post this in the thread but then I decided to do it anyway. Chezinu has been away for 6 days straight. We need all 5 town votes to survive today. If Chezinu is town then this game is already lost. That means that either Chezinu is scum or we lose anyway. Is this a very compelling argument for everybody switching to Chezinu or what? Between Chezinu and RoL, one of the two is mafia. I'd rather lynch RoL because I'm 99% certain its him. That said, if Chez is mafia, then bum probably isn't mafia, RoL would be cleared, you already are. That means we'd have chez/kita/sheth/syllo as the potential mafia members. We'd have 5 townies remaining with 4 ostensible shots (only bum and I have ours soft/hardclaimed) remaining against 4 potential targets. We'd pretty much win tonight. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On December 29 2011 12:12 Liquid`Sheth wrote: So, does everyone think we should mass role claim? I've never seen one, or been a part of one to know for sure if its a good idea or not. It just seems like this will be the last day, because of vig shots and things. And I think any more information on this last day could be important. Thoughts ? If mafia has avoided some of the triggers and has RBs, this could be a fantastic way to lose our only shot at winning the game tonight. | ||
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