EPTI think towns have recently been doing better on the average than a d1 random lynch and considering the obvious downside that people will not have to justify their votes, it's a bad idea. Even if I didn't have a clue who is more likely to flip scum and who isn't, I will at the very least have town reads by the end of the day. If a player who I got a town read on happens to get RNGed, it would be pretty hard not to argue against the lynch. I would even go as far to state that I would rather mislynch day 1 due to scum diverting the lynch from one of their own than RNG and hit scum, but produce no information at all.
TL Mafia XLVIII - Page 6
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
I think towns have recently been doing better on the average than a d1 random lynch and considering the obvious downside that people will not have to justify their votes, it's a bad idea. Even if I didn't have a clue who is more likely to flip scum and who isn't, I will at the very least have town reads by the end of the day. If a player who I got a town read on happens to get RNGed, it would be pretty hard not to argue against the lynch. I would even go as far to state that I would rather mislynch day 1 due to scum diverting the lynch from one of their own than RNG and hit scum, but produce no information at all. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 04 2011 19:49 syllogism wrote: Incog seemed to randomize teams in PYP:I, so I definitely wouldn't lynch based on perceived balance. As for setup balance, I don't think it's useful to speculate about it given how little information I've available and how little it actually matters in terms of how we should proceed. Either way, we will likely know the answer after n1. I think towns have recently been doing better on the average than a d1 random lynch and considering the obvious downside that people will not have to justify their votes, it's a bad idea. Even if I didn't have a clue who is more likely to flip scum and who isn't, I will at the very least have town reads by the end of the day. If a player who I got a town read on happens to get RNGed, it would be pretty hard not to argue against the lynch. I would even go as far to state that I would rather mislynch day 1 due to scum diverting the lynch from one of their own than RNG and hit scum, but produce no information at all. Agreed. Other than starting discussion, I think RNG has very little value. It simply doesn't mesh very well with most of our primary day 1 goals. In particular, getting the mafia down on paper and forcing them to state who they want to lynch and why. RNG: 2 ##Vote prplhz | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 04 2011 19:38 Palmar wrote: Sup. If we assume the hosts went with the most obvious way of balancing the game, two people out of this list are scum: Radfield Palmar Jackal sandroba syllogism redFF I'm not sure if I agree with that list. I could easily see 1 of those 6 being scum, not two. I would narrow it down further if you want to go that route: Radfield Palmar sandroba syllogism 1 of those 4 are scum. However, I think that kind of thinking is at complete odds to proper play. Towns can be stacked and still implode(Caller. BC and Fishball in Closed Casket), and mafia can be stacked and still get washed out(Radfield, iGrok, Kitaman, GGQ, DocH, Cyber_Cheese in LOTR). If hosts are smart they will start true RNGing the set-up and seeing how things turn out. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On December 04 2011 21:26 Radfield wrote: I'm not sure if I agree with that list. I could easily see 1 of those 6 being scum, not two. I would narrow it down further if you want to go that route: Radfield Palmar sandroba syllogism 1 of those 4 are scum. However, I think that kind of thinking is at complete odds to proper play. Towns can be stacked and still implode(Caller. BC and Fishball in Closed Casket), and mafia can be stacked and still get washed out(Radfield, iGrok, Kitaman, GGQ, DocH, Cyber_Cheese in LOTR). If hosts are smart they will start true RNGing the set-up and seeing how things turn out. So you guys don't exclude yourself from a 'possible scum list"? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
What I'm more interested in is that 6/25 seems like an oddly high number of mafia for a normal setup. Do you think this is offset by lower mafia KP or multiple town power roles? Given the nature of the closed set-up, I would imagine that town has some excellent roles. I would also guess that mafia have at least 2 KP, possibly with access to some amount of extra KP(ie: around 2.5 KP). Standard KP is also possible though(#mafia/2 rounded up) which would mean lylo on Day 3. In that event I would imagine town is pretty stacked vs a fairly low powered scum team. In any event, 6 mafia vs 19 town means that town almost surely has access to KP. Either directly in the form of Viggies/Hatters, or indirectly via a hidden double lynch or something. Otherwise we will struggle to kill the mafia before they kill us if we mislynch the first few days. I would guess 3 or 4 townside KP. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
Based on nothing at all, who would you lynch? Palmar why did you ask me a question you knew how I would respond to? Did that reveal anything useful? | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On December 04 2011 21:59 hyshes wrote: So you guys don't exclude yourself from a 'possible scum list"? Is this supposed to be a contribution? You can pretend everyone posted a list that didn't include their own name and then all those lists were assembled into one. Do you think not excluding your own name makes one more likely to be scum or not? More dishonest or more open? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 04 2011 21:59 hyshes wrote: So you guys don't exclude yourself from a 'possible scum list"? Of course not  I don't expect you to think I am town based on me saying so. I expect you to watch my play and gradually exclude me from being scum based on merit. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:04 syllogism wrote: Our EU players at the very least should be awake by now and posted: Corrupt, Erandorr, prplhz, Toadesstern. I would like to note that you are required to post at least once every 24h cycle. Based on nothing at all, who would you lynch? Palmar why did you ask me a question you knew how I would respond to? Did that reveal anything useful? Because I knew what your answer would be, but I was unsure how it would be formulated. Your chosen path was to to deny it decisively without trashing the idea. Which is interesting. You could've been much more careful or much more aggressive, you could have absolutely trashed the idea, or you could have carefully denied it. I'm not sure how to read it though. What made you initiate a discussion with me? Normally you just call me annoying until you figure out if I'm town or scum. I mean, I have done the same thing with sandroba, but what factors control your choice of target (me) and your change in play? | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
@Palmar You bring that up every game it seems, despite being argued against every time. How exactly is that helping? Do you really want to random lynch? @Syllogism How come you are so active early game? @Radfield Did I read your post wrong or did you dissagree with random lynching and proceeded to random vote? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:22 sandroba wrote: @Radfield Did I read your post wrong or did you dissagree with random lynching and proceeded to random vote? Correct. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:22 sandroba wrote: Hello everyone. I'll never agree to the random lynching, I think it's useless. @Palmar You bring that up every game it seems, despite being argued against every time. How exactly is that helping? Do you really want to random lynch? @Syllogism How come you are so active early game? @Radfield Did I read your post wrong or did you dissagree with random lynching and proceeded to random vote? Because I woke up and the thread was pretty much completely empty and dead? Unfortunately I do have to have material to work with and establish my innocence. What do you think my activity implies? | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:21 Palmar wrote: Because I knew what your answer would be, but I was unsure how it would be formulated. Your chosen path was to to deny it decisively without trashing the idea. Which is interesting. You could've been much more careful or much more aggressive, you could have absolutely trashed the idea, or you could have carefully denied it. I'm not sure how to read it though. What made you initiate a discussion with me? Normally you just call me annoying until you figure out if I'm town or scum. I mean, I have done the same thing with sandroba, but what factors control your choice of target (me) and your change in play? You are European, likely awake and usually quite willing to start posting on your own. I don't recall ever calling you annoying, care to provide reference? I suppose the closest I can come up with is lotr where you weren't doing anything and I noted that. | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:32 syllogism wrote: You are European, likely awake and usually quite willing to start posting on your own. I don't recall ever calling you annoying, care to provide reference? I suppose the closest I can come up with is lotr where you weren't doing anything and I noted that. Annoying may not be the word you use, but just think about our last game as town together where I was running for mayor. Your approach towards me is not the same. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On December 04 2011 22:06 syllogism wrote: Is this supposed to be a contribution? You can pretend everyone posted a list that didn't include their own name and then all those lists were assembled into one. Do you think not excluding your own name makes one more likely to be scum or not? More dishonest or more open? is this a contribution race orso? I found something odd, i asked it. And if it was a race, i don't like your "contribution either" On December 04 2011 22:29 syllogism wrote: Because I woke up and the thread was pretty much completely empty and dead? Unfortunately I do have to have material to work with and establish my innocence. What do you think my activity implies? establish your innocence? That is you main concern? Didn't pop it in your mind to make scumhunting your priority? | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
If you scumhunt, you might catch scum If you establish your innocence you won't be lynched. If all townies won't be lynched, then the game has been solved. So yes, that should be syllos and everyone else's main concern. | ||
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