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On November 18 2011 10:24 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 10:23 wherebugsgo wrote: So?
We already lynched a lurker today. Leave sinani till tomorrow, he's not playing any different than he normally does as town. When he's scum he lurks so hardcore he doesn't even post.
It's funny you use the "he's not reading the thread" logic to further your case on sinani when you don't do the same with nisani. Matter of convenience, chaoser? wait what?
Let me be more clear for you.
You're saying sinani is not reading the thread, therefore he is scum.
Why is it that you are selectively using this logic, and not applying it to nisani?
Oh, right, cause you have an agenda.
Sinani is playing like he plays as town. You probably weren't paying attention in PYP, but when he's scum he's a grade of useless even below his current level of useless. If he flips scum I will be shocked.
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Chaoser don't be thick. You are good at this game, you should know by now that sinani being useless is nothing extraordinarily out of his normal meta. This game is about catching scum, not killing people who could in reality flip either alignment.
Sinani is not going to help us find scum if he's town, but that doesn't mean we should lynch him day 1. He's one of those players who's better off taking a vig shot. We need to catch SCUM in this thread. If "at worst" your target is a bad townie then you're probably not distinguishing the bad townies from the actual scum.
Now you admit that you haven't paid attention to nisani. If you are truly town, step up your play and stop selectively reading.
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prpl don't be dumb either, day ends in like five minutes. No one is going to lynch those last 3 today.
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On November 18 2011 10:54 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +Chaoser don't be thick. You are good at this game, you should know by now that sinani being useless is nothing extraordinarily out of his normal meta. This game is about catching scum, not killing people who could in reality flip either alignment. You say this to me and yet excuse this exact reasoning used by many others to vote for kenpachi and myself such as palmar and cyber_cheese?
What are you talking about? One of Kenpachi/Lanaia pretty much needed to die. I was, for the most part, either asleep or at class when the Kenpachi/Lanaia stuff blew up. The Kenpachi vote was completely out of my control, there's no point in talking about it now. Not to mention, that issue is completely different. Sure, Kenpachi might make a good vig. That's on the assumption that he is a vig (he didn't claim).
In addition, Lanaia's anti-vote on him meant that we NEEDED to lynch one of them. There was no choice, we need the information. If one of them is scum the other is almost guaranteed to be scum, simply because an anti-vote on day 1 like that is incredibly scummy. Notice how Lanaia has had almost no thread presence since then. If kenpachi flips scum then this is probably why. She excused herself and said sorry and now has had no influence on town concerns at all.
I understand kenpachi was raging and if he was town that's probably why he's not here right now, but really? You can't compare the two.
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also people are voting you because you're completely distracting everyone. Your votes were all over the place at a time when we needed people to think clearly and post reasoned cases in the thread. You used some garbage reason of "oh I wanted reactions" for your one line votes. I don't buy that.
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Kenpachi (14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Lanaia (Anti-Vote), Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus, -Lanaia (Anti-Vote), Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206 (14): chaoser, GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
All of you who voted both of those players: fuck you.
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Kenpachi (14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Lanaia (Anti-Vote), Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus, -Lanaia (Anti-Vote), Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206 (14): chaoser, GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
All of you who voted both of those players: fuck you. EBWOP
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no, but I think you're pretty scummy too atm though.
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On November 18 2011 11:15 Nisani201 wrote: DCLXVI Drazerk Zephirdd GreYMisT risk.nuke Tyrran Lemonwalrus Cyber_Cheese
These people voted for both Kenpachi and sinani206.
There is 1-2 scum on this list. Drazerk is one of them
yay unsubstantiated assumptions.
I hope you die tomorrow, regardless of whether I live tonight or not.
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On November 18 2011 12:00 Forumite wrote: WBG, I´d take a look at players who were on only one of the lynches, players who posted that both were scummy, but only voted on one of them, players who had allready gotten one Townie killed and didn´t want to attract too much attention by voting on two. Players who hang back and blame others for the mislynches. Those who voted for both victims look bad, but I think they look like bad Townies. That´s my opinion at least, that Scum are the ones avoiding the second lynch. If they dared to lynch sinani, then it wouldn´t have taken so long to get those final votes.
This was exactly what I was thinking.
Mostly the singular early and late votes.
One of them is you though lolol
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It's alright, at this point I think you're more town than at least 6 other people. You haven't done anything overtly scummy and what you did is a mistake any townie could make.
We need to think about how we are going to approach tomorrow. I think we should consolidate for the first half of tomorrow. Let's focus and build cases on people. None of that "I'm going to randomly vote people to get reactions" business. In the second half we begin focusing on the best cases and voting those.
I will be very suspicious of anyone who decides to piss away tomorrow again the same way we did today. We cannot afford to lynch multiple townies, and we must lynch at least one of the people like Nisani who today did nothing but randomly voted people for no reason and seeded chaos in the thread.
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Drazerk is not as big a priority as Nisani or chaoser.
I would be okay with lynching him if it wasn't for the fact that other scummy players are fine with lynching him, which probably means he's not scum. On the other hand, nisani and chaoser have deliberately avoided mentioning each other. That's pretty strange.
Of course we can't make a connection until one of them flips. One of them needs to flip.
I hope the vigilantes do their job.
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On November 18 2011 16:03 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Started re-reading the thread, only had time to get to ~page 35, but I figured I'd leave my thoughts so far before I go for now. Upon re-reading I think Lemonwalrus and Cyber_Cheese need a closer looking at, and would encourage everyone to do so. I still don't like Drazerk, and he seems dead-set on convincing us he will be useless whether he is town or scum. Not sure how much effort should be spent on him, but I'd like him to end up dead sooner rather than later. I also don't like the looks of LSB too much, but he is currently exceeding 24 hours without posting, so I don't see the point of pursuing something there unless he comes back before getting mod-killed. Regarding Nisani, this is the only post of his I really dislike: Show nested quote +Just read through the thread. A lot of shit is going down.
But most of it is irrelevant. Kenpachi is not irrelevant. He should die.
##Vote: Kenpachi Other than that I don't see anything that makes me want to get my pitchfork out. I am undecided on WBG, Chaoser, and Palmar as of right now, but would not be surprised if one of the three is scum. However, I would be surprised if more than one of them is.
Outing to the whole thread who you're undecided on for no particular reason is completely useless and is actually probably detrimental.
Good scum will see that and jump all over it, using your indecisiveness to push their agenda without you even knowing they're modifying your opinions. This is particularly dangerous if a lot of people share your views and it is apparent to scum.
Instead, in order to give yourself better reads of people you find to be on the fence, make a case on someone and then watch your targets react to that case. Good townies deal on a need to know basis, and unless you think you're going to die there's no point in pushing all your reads into the thread all at once.
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On November 18 2011 17:32 LSB wrote:Palmar is MafiaIs working is magic :DAs I have repeated many many times, one of the hardest things to do in mafia is to make analysis against a townie. If your not going to do this you have to A) Lurk, B) Bandwagon C) Not say anything relevant Note what these three are? What you guys think are the biggest 'tells' in mafia. ^^ The biggest trap most mafia members fall into is that they force analysis, because they have to. They need to convince the town that a fellow townie is mafia. And in order to do this, they force analysis. There are a few characteristics of forced analysis 1) Warping people's words- it's much easier to argue against "I shot the sheriff" than "I protected the sheriff and that's why KP was lowered" 2) Making logical fallacies- These are unconscious. When you desperately attempt to prove someone to be mafia, you start making bad/erronious connections. 3) Go after easy targets- it's easy to hide amongst a crowd. This is not necessarily true for forced analysis. Thesis: Palmar's little insight rests solely on logical fallacies, which are made because he is forcing analysis. Therefore Palmar is mafia. Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 21:49 Palmar wrote: First off, we should establish that chaoser is both analytical and critical as town. His play this game starkly contrasts that idea. He is throwing accusations and votes both left and right without actually doing much to back them up. Now, this leads us to think what would make chaoser throw his votes around like this.
The only sensible reason to do that as town is to apply pressure, but when you are the one being pressured it's actually not beneficial to do this, because no one is going to listen to you anyway. The optimal town play in this situation is to try as hard as you can to build reputation for people to listen to you for. However, chaoser seems not even slightly interested in raising his status in the game, feeling pretty comfortable being not listened to at all. Something only scum is interested in. First of all, this post contains two big logical fallacies. Metagaming and No True Scotsman 1) Metagaming- Remember, this game is played online. Unlike RL mafia, where 'tells' or 'nerves' get in the way, play style between town and mafia is very hard to distinguish. If you want to make comparisons it requires a lot of analysis and supporting claims. I cannot think of a way to be able to realistically call anyone's meta. Palmar is brushing over and claiming that chaoser is "analytical and critical as town" and never such as mafia. [spoiler]I'm not saying that metagaming is invalid, but what I am saying is that Palmar hasn't shown that this is Chaoser's true metagame. I've played with Chaoser many times and I highly doubt that this is anywhere close to Chaoser's true metagame[spoiler] 2)No True Scotsman Explination- Palmar is theorizing what optimal town play and blaming Chaoser for not following it. Noone does optimal town play. People have things called 'playstyles' and 'personalities' + Show Spoiler +If I did, I wouldn't be sick and I'd be spamming the thread Palmar actually explains No True Scotsman the best Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 09:51 Palmar wrote: Also, holy shit it really fucking bothers me that you guys dare complain about bad towns. Why am I not getting lynched? Why is WBG or Bum or Coag not getting lynched? It's got nothing to do with town, it's got everything to do with your own play. Man up and own your mistakes. We all fuck up. So he's being hypocritical right off the bat too Show nested quote +This one is particularly interesting. First off, we have to understand how sinani206 works to see if this is legit. Remember, sinani206 hasn't got the greatest track record as town or scum, but he does have his tells like everyone else. This little vote he placed on chaoser seems to be pretty genuine. Like he's not pro enough as scum to realize that doing something like that with his meta as scum is excellent play, and thus the simplest explanation is that sinani206 is town.
chaoser should have understood this, yet he directly OMGUS votes sinani206, even gloating about the fact he's voting multiple people. Again, Meta Fallocies, and a quick town tell on sinani who up to the point of Palmar's post did not post anything substantial. I don't know how Palmar can be 100% sure that Sinani is town but even if it is true (And we ignore the fact that Palmar is using s**y scumtells) it leads us to the next fallacy Anyone who Votes for a Town is Mafia- I hope I don't have to explain why this is wrong. Show nested quote +On November 15 2011 22:23 chaoser wrote:On November 15 2011 13:29 Kenpachi wrote: real long day ok. hi i am Kenpachi and i am a Townie welcome to TL mafia to those who are just starting and i hope you have a good time here.
We are the 99% I am also green townie <3 LAL is stupid This is chaoser soft-claiming a power-role. No reason to do it unless you're scum. If you can't understand how he's soft-claiming a power role, well... you deserve to be punched. So yeah, let's kill that guy. Palmar is trying to analyze spam. This is going too far. If your trying to put words into someone's mouth and analyze spam you are forcing analysis. Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 07:51 Palmar wrote: We're lynching Lanaia no matter what. What she did is extremely poor play on day 1. If you're gonna do something like that, why not take it up with town? You must've known the anti-vote would show up anyway, so you're basically outed as soon as yo use it.
Basically, that play is so bad for town that I see no reason to not lynch her.
As for Kenpachi, well, his sole defense i "town is bad" which is well... fair. But remember, if you are the one who doesn't manage to argue your way out of lynch, both as town and scum, you are actually the worst person of all those bads you're complaining about.
Without exception, the player who gets lynched day 1 is the worst player in the game. 1) No true Scottsman 2) His argument is essentially, Kenpachi is scum so Lania is scum. This is another fallocy, since at the time Kenpachi hasn't flipped. And that's why Palmar was so quick to push a day 1 lynch. Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 20:13 Palmar wrote:On November 17 2011 19:55 Tyrran wrote: Ouch, Palmar post that he likes me, and i destroy him with my very next post. Sorry for that ^^'.
I still stand by my analysis tho. You actually made me reconsider the stance on Lanaia. I just posted a huge post to see you attacking me Oh looks like Palmar gets out once he realizes Lania is actually going to be lynched. What happened to 'sticking to your beliefs' and 'definatly going to lynch her' now TLDR: Palmar is mafia because his case on Chaoser was horrible and consisted only of logical fallacies.
LSB your activity levels concern me.
Why is Palmar scum for his analysis being bad, but chaoser is not because his analysis was even shittier?
Remember, chaoser was the biggest force driving people to vote sinani. People may not realize this, but he pretty much single handedly led town to lynch someone they shouldn't have been lynching. So why is it that you picked Palmar and not chaoser?
What makes chaoser's cases better than Palmar's?
Why are you not concerned about a player like Nisani, who has multiple shitty cases? Hardest part of playing scum is making cases, according to you. Yet, you're not focusing at all on the people who straight up failed to come up with cases, instead throwing their votes and then yelling over and over to get people to listen to them.
Sadly their voices were so loud that these sheep actually followed them.
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On November 18 2011 17:45 LSB wrote: I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch 2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar. 3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference.
You say it's forced but you don't really show how.
How much have you played with Palmar in the past?
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I mean honestly, you say forced analysis uses bad logic. By definition, so does bad analysis.
Your entire argument about Palmar can't discern bad analysis from forced analysis, yet you say there's some sort of crucial difference.
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On November 18 2011 18:21 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 18:02 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 18 2011 17:45 LSB wrote: I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch 2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar. 3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference. You say it's forced but you don't really show how. x.x Read the first few paragraphs again... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=252145
Guess you didn't understand my post, did you?
1) Warping people's words- it's much easier to argue against "I shot the sheriff" than "I protected the sheriff and that's why KP was lowered" 2) Making logical fallacies- These are unconscious. When you desperately attempt to prove someone to be mafia, you start making bad/erronious connections. 3) Go after easy targets- it's easy to hide amongst a crowd. This is not necessarily true for forced analysis.
Thesis: Palmar's little insight rests solely on logical fallacies, which are made because he is forcing analysis. Therefore Palmar is mafia.
If Palmar's insights rest solely on logical fallacies, what's separating his so-called "forced" analysis from bad analysis?
You say there is a crucial difference, but have not shown it.
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Of course your analysis is with the janky stuff town came up with to lynch kenpachi. It is far more forced than you claim Palmar's analysis is.
Both the kenpachi lynch and the sinani lynch were horrible, yet you don't seem to realize your own mistake in voting sinani.
What I'm not understanding is why you're being so selective. I am not ignoring anything; Palmar was not using bad logic. I actually agree with his meta assessment of chaoser. You don't for whatever reason, so you're spinning that into bad logic. It's not bad logic at all. A player plays a certain way as a certain alignment. When you see them deviate strongly from that pattern you become suspicious. It's completely natural and a very effective way of catching scum. This is all Palmar is saying, and in this situation you are the one twisting things.
Second, Palmar does not utilize a no true Scotsman fallacy. Hell, I don't even know where you're getting that from. Palmar was dead correct on how townies should try to get their targets lynched. Playstyles might be different but chaoser as town is not completely haphazard and he does not vote people moronically. He uses logic and reasons out his votes. In this game all his votes have been complete trash.
You don't seem to understand the logical fallacy you're accusing Palmar of. It's actually quite funny.
Then you go on to claim that Palmar was 100% sure sinani was town. Again, this is based on meta, and anyone who voted sinani yesterday wasn't thinking. Which, by the way, includes you.
Any person who reasoned for more than five seconds would see that literally no one was defending sinani. It was the easiest bandwagon in the history of bandwagons. There was no backlash. The bandwagon was brainless. Sinani's meta did not fit. He never once said anything scummy. He was lynched entirely on him being bad and useless as town. AKA, on his meta.
You were one of those votes. Now you are the hypocrite.
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