EPT/in
Lord of the Rings Mafia
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heist
United States720 Posts
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And so the quest begins. | ||
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But while I'm on the topic of pure speculation, I believe the ring belongs to someone in the town or a neutral faction. It seems to make sense balance-wise and lore-wise. It starts off with the hobbits, a good faction. Sadly any game with items seems to get sidetracked into pointless discussion. For now, if you have the ring, congrats. Don't give it up and don't reveal yourself. Nice bandwagon you got started there chaoser. I don't agree with it but hey, pressure is pressure. | ||
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On September 17 2011 09:19 kitaman27 wrote: The only reason someone should consider passing off the ring is if they strongly suspect they are going to get hit or right before a lynch. In addition to giving it to someone that they think is town, they also need to make sure that person is safe from hits. Once the ring falls into scum hands, its pretty likely that its going to stay there unless there is a vig shot or something. If you do pass off the ring at some point, you can probably claim since there is a strong likelihood that the first person to get it is town like DrH mentioned. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some alternate win conditions attempting to obtain the ring. Also, curu mentioned earlier that he could rebalance the setup with 25/26 rather than 30, so that probably means there is a 4:1 scum ratio. Finally: ##Vote raynpelikoneet No. No. Do not claim if you have the ring unless you want to die. | ||
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On September 17 2011 09:37 kitaman27 wrote: I think you misread what I said. I said that the ring holder should only claim if he decided he needed to pass it off or had a role requiring him to pass it. That I did. Apologies. And you're right. Once the mafia have the ring, it's theirs forever unless we have a hero vigi shot since mafia about to be lynched can pass it off. Will we be notified if the ring changes hands either through giving it away or death? | ||
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On September 17 2011 09:51 Pyo wrote: wait, what? Did I miss something? Do we know what the ring even does, besides make everyone want it? I don't know know what it does, but I want it really bad. On another note, Radfield what's up with your vote? | ||
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On September 17 2011 09:55 heist wrote: I don't know know what it does, but I want it really bad. On another note, Radfield what's up with your vote? I think i was reading JeeJee's post when I wrote this. I totally meant kita. | ||
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On September 17 2011 09:33 Vain wrote: How the fuck is that a reason? On September 17 2011 21:25 Vain wrote: So you mean we should get 2 targets and let scum decide who gets the lynch? Sounds like a plan These kind of posts are exactly what we can't allow to just slide by. You are just posting aggressive little one-liners that aren't exactly contributing much to town discussion. If you disagree with someone, I would ask that you flesh out your ideas more and provide your thoughts on specific players. As a side note, the reason we want at least two majority candidates is it forces everyone to make a choice. If we have just one easy target everyone votes for, we will gain absolutely no information based on the lynch since everyone voted the same. Being forced to choose creates liability and patterns will start to emerge that can be worked with. If the situation is 1 townie and 1 scum on the chopping block, and the mafia try to swing majority votes for the townie, that's a lot of information that we can use. | ||
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On September 17 2011 10:23 Navillus wrote: God @#$% it I have now rolled VT in literally every &*!@ing game that had it that I have played in >:[ anyways if Drazerk gets to vote people with little to no justification then I do too ##Vote Drazerk Claiming your role hours into the game is the single most suspicious thing anyone has done this game. Not only is this your very first post into the game, but you also start off with a very early vote. Let's place this in conjunction with your latest post. On September 18 2011 02:11 Navillus wrote: 6th game != learned anything in 1-5, esp. cause I died really quickly in some and wasn't paying that much attention to most of them so I couldn't really learn. Also you're either lying about looking through my games, or just didn't really try, cause last game I played I opened with basically the same line, a complaint about getting VT yet again (I think it was cosmic horror, if not it was 2 games ago in werewolves but I'm pretty sure it was cosmic horror.) As to my thoughts, I'm even more skeptical on Drazerk, I had figured that that first vote was pressure, and from what I know Dr. H is a very good vet player so I figured that's exactly what he was doing when he added his vote on, but Drazerk isn't as good as Dr. H, I could see him being scum and thinking that they could actually get a wagon going, then what made me more suspicious is that he completely ducks my vote and instead attacks me. Your original claim for voting for Drazerk is that he had no justification. Yet now you admit that you knew exactly what DrH and Drazerk were trying to do: create pressure. But you feel the need to start your game off by voting for one of them. It's a safe and easy vote at the time but now there is clear contradiction between your reasoning then and your justifications now. Your entire response to people (one of whom is Drazerk) calling you out on claiming so early is troubling to me. You claim over and over to be inexperienced and you start attacking those that called you out, namely Drazerk. Furthermore, your reasoning for attacking Drazerk is a little troubling. So... if I understand correctly, DrH and Drazerk do the exact same thing, but one is a vet townie and one is scummy? Based purely on how you good you think they are? You also provide additional justification in saying he attacked you. He never attacked you, he called you out for claiming VT. I can believe you made a mistake, but your reactions so far to being challenged is one that I find highly suspicious. | ||
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On September 18 2011 02:40 Jackal58 wrote: That was to Heist. His proposal is so pro mafia it's not even funny. It's none worse in having two townies closely leading the vote and one townie a clear frontrunner. Obviously it's not the ideal situation to find oneself in and that's why we all work tirelessly to make sure this doesn't happen. If two townies are leading the votes, town is doing something wrong. | ||
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On September 18 2011 03:34 OriginalName wrote: Im 99% sure DrH is not doing the exact same thing as Drazerk to begin with... They both placed a pressure vote purely based on Greymist asking for the ring. | ||
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WBG, DrH, and Drazerk are terrible lynches right now. WBG is definitely the easy lynch right now and most likely NOT SCUM. DrH is arguably one of the most active and most town player we have right now. Frankly, the justifications for Drazerk are weak, really really weak. However without much better alternative, I'm liking Syllogism's plan for now. No more lurking from those that could be such an asset to the town. I will go ahead and double that pressure. ##Vote: Jackal58 | ||
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On September 18 2011 21:25 Jackal58 wrote: My vote is going on Bugs. Having played a couple of games with him now I know he is aggressive as town. He has not trolled any games to this point. His activity level is the same but his style is different. I don't believe he is mafia but I do believe he is 3rd party with a separate win condition from town. Right now I see two options for him. Lynch him or give him the ring and see what happens. If he and the ring leave the game that is probably not a bad thing. If we lynch him and the ring stays in the game that's probably not quite as optimal but still not a bad thing. Worse case scenario is they are both still here tomorrow. If you have the ring give it to Bugs. I can't believe that will end the game. The ring is inherently evil anyways. Other than Bugs the only person that has struck me as off is Heist. I'm more sure of Bugs not being town than I am of Heist being scum so Bugs is getting my vote. How are the only two options to either kill him or give in to his wish? Let's not give him anything just yet and let's not kill one of our most active players. I can't believe people are voting for someone they think is not mafia (not necessarily town). I'm more sure of WBG not being mafia than anything else at this point. Ask yourselves: if the majority feels he's a third party why is he our leading lynch? Has he shown anything that is harming the town? At worse, he's spamming requests for the ring. One reason that keeps cropping up is "I don't want to deal with his posting, I'm going to vote for him." Unacceptable. If he gets lynched, and he flips 3rd party (the most likely scenario) that's 'pats on the back' for mafia and 'eh whatever shrugs' from town. Yeah, it's not hugely detrimental but it's a waste of a day 1 lynch. With the majority divided between WBG and prplhz, I know who I'm voting for. | ||
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Mafia: Let's lynch so and so. Mainly the vets with a lot of town cred. DrH: NO. We're getting that ^%$& WBG out of this game. Mafia: But.. people are really divided over his play and we could get him as an easy lyn- DrH: NO. Obey Sauron. Mr. Jackal, I've been waiting for a post after your many not so subtle comments about what you think of me. On September 21 2011 01:30 Jackal58 wrote: Mr. Heist First post. Let's quell discussion. Clearly pushing for two bandwagons is a scum play. I don't care who you are or how you slice it at the end of the day we want one candidate. Not two. We don't want to look to see who hammered the townie. We want to prevent that from happening. His proposal screams "Let's get two players wagoned so me and my buddies can hide all over the place. This syntax bothers me. Defense on DrH and an OMGUS on me. Realizes I am most likely not going to get lynched. Changes to Prplhz but likes Erandorr better. But likes both townies better than a possible 3rd party. This guy is scum. 1. Let's quell useless discussion. Filtering through some of DrH's post, what does he do but start off the game trying to get people distracted by LOTR lore. Yes, not a terribly useful first post, but in no way do I want everyone to stop talking. 2. A misunderstanding. A lot of one-liners tend to happen if there is a misread. I stand by what I said about lynch candidates. You say my supposed goal is to let my mafia buddies hide all over the place as opposed to...hiding in one place comfortably with an easy lynch? I'm not asking we artificially disregard a really illuminating analysis fingerpointing someone as likely mafia just to have two bandwagons. Just don't settle for a "ehh" lynch simply to disallow multiple bandwagons. 3. Syntax. OK. What does it mean that I used both 'we' and 'town' in the same paragraph? townies led to town. That's just how it ran in my mind. 4. I defended a lot of people there. Ya it sucks that one of them turned up as scum. A bad read. It was still pretty early but his level of activity, calling people out and making his opinions on people known are generally what I would contribute to town play. That's all I can say. I assure you that I didn't take offense to your comment about the bandwagons. Day 1 had many easy lynches. No need for me to help start one on you if I was mafia. 5. Yeah because I totally knew both were townies. I had no good scum reads day 1. I made it abundantly clear that my priority for lynching was purely based on who could most likely be mafia, not who is most likely not town from the leading candidates. My short thoughts on the leading lynch next. | ||
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I'm all for lynching scum, but I highly doubt we hit scum today. There's no good candidates yet. That being said, upon rereading I have no idea why I was suspicious of Drazerk. Chalk that up to an awful hangover. I'll try to work up something better soon -Completely backtracks on Drazerk. Suspicious? Yes but... Not hard to come up with something on Drazerk with the way he played early game. I would attribute this more to a townie who realizes he made a mistake than a mafia member who made a bad accusation. It seems as if he isn't concerned with the repercussions of this act. Dangerous territory of arguing he does something so scummy he can't be mafia. But that's my gut feeling. -Not playing as a "vet" should be playing. (unhelpful to town and low level of activity). This isn't enough for me. Lot's of vets had lackluster day 1 appearances. Whether he's trying to look not useless or not is a really iffy argument that I can't necessarily conclude one way or another. -Focuses mainly on WBG but voting behavior is almost useless as any tell. For now, I don't believe he is scum based on what we have. | ||
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On September 21 2011 04:04 Archon_Toilet wrote: JCARLSONIV - on the prplhz wagon who is now confirmed townie - Defends Sauron doctorh - Just crapping on about lurkers but doesnt actually say anything - Desperate to keep attention on the erandorr bandwagon rather than the one he was on. Mentions every single name on multiple occasions. This is important. It is highly likely mafia on the other big bandwagon as well, why ignore them? - Has claimed a personal interest in the ring. We know who Frodo is. Can only be Gollum or one of the nazgul. - accuses ciryandor (confirmed town) of being mafia cos he defended bugs (confirmed town) and prplhz (confirmed town) Bad votes, defends the godfather, attacks townies over and over. Has generally caused chaos, most of his post long quotewall noone can read. Vote to kill him. He is probably a nazgul. All the leading bandwagons were townies. You bandwagon arguments really hold no sway. Almost everyone voted for a townie; you can't just single him out. Lots of argument saying he has to be mafia for arguing with townies. Stop acting as if only mafia will argue and attack town. In fact, townies will be more likely to piss each other off. Arguing or defending people who flip mafia is a null tell this early on in the game. His comment about DrH is hardly a "defense". He's trying to force people to take the harder, more vulnerable route of actually having to spell out your arguments and provide reasons and opinions. Mafia can't be allowed to slide by with just their votes. You are really stretching definitions to include this as one of your "points". He has a personal interest in the ring. Great. No need to jump immediately to Nazgul. Pure speculation. I'm sure many more roles than just these can utilize the ring. | ||
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Drazerk. On September 17 2011 18:59 Drazerk wrote: Looking at it I think WBG is probably lying with his claim and using it as an excuse to post bad and try and get the ring. On September 17 2011 19:32 Drazerk wrote: I think he is lying and that may of been a slip up ( Like my caller posting restriction in WAW2 ) On September 18 2011 19:09 Drazerk wrote: I am busy and just quickly glanced over 1-2 pages but to clear something up - I can not comment on and posting restrictions I may or may not have just know curu can put them in the game and he probably will have used them. Saying that WBG is lying about being golum and using it as an excuse to play badly and obtain the ring for scum he doesn't have a posting restriction. On September 19 2011 07:13 Drazerk wrote: I generally don't trust people anymore. As for WBG - I still think he is lying about his claim and getting people to go "Leave him it's just gollum who is third party" He spends most of day 1 attacking WBG. It's kind of rediculous how many times he posts the exact same thing. This is really going the extreme of posting something while saying absolutely nothing new or contributing in any way. The number of connections to DrH are also starting to be suspicious (same initial pressure vote, DrH really pushes his defense, both attack mainly WBG). On September 19 2011 08:20 Drazerk wrote: Vigi's shoot WBG. DTs scan Jackal / prphlhz If you have the ring do NOT pass it on to anyone tonight. On September 20 2011 08:17 Drazerk wrote: Told you WBG was lying about his golum claim >.< It's clear that he wants us to believe WBG is mafia trying to play off as a third party. He wants someone to use their KP to kill him night 1. What happens after the flip? He tries to gain cred by saying he was right all along about WBG. Oh no need to remember that he was actually completely wrong about his alignment. The fact that he tries to use this moment to provide justification for most of his day 1 posts when he was fundamentally wrong seems very off. For now I'll be placing my vote on Drazerk. ##Vote: Drazerk | ||
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Now I know how to conjure up a Drazerk. | ||
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Jackal: Realizes I am most likely not going to get lynched. Changes to Prplhz but likes Erandorr better. But likes both townies better than a possible 3rd party. This guy is scum. Heist: Yeah because I totally knew both were townies. I had no good scum reads day 1. I made it abundantly clear that my priority for lynching was purely based on who could most likely be mafia, not who is most likely not town from the leading candidates. | ||
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And syllo really give it a rest. It's possible and everything else adds up. I also haven't forgotten you completely misused your day vig. | ||
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In fact the one going out their limb is you. Your only argument is that Balrog can't possibly be not evil. He's neutral to the main conflict in the lore, he can be neutral here. I just think think we have much better people to go after than iGrok. | ||
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What i want to know. Who killed Radfield? | ||
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On September 23 2011 19:50 Palmar wrote: Just put yourself in Mafia shoes, and let's entertain the thought that iGrok is NOT mafia. Premise: Someone idiot claims 3rd party. option a): Push for his lynch, because no matter what you can't be faulted for wanting to kill him. option b): Push for a lynch on a townie and defend the 3rd party, putting your neck out and failing miserably. Would any sane mafia pick option b ?? I don't see it happening, there is no doubt in my mind now that iGrok is scum, because mafia would have gladly hanged him if he wasn't one of them. option b) would be more like: Push for a lynch on a townie and defend the 3rd party, be justified if the 3rd party ever flips 3rd party (which you know for certain will happen). Do you even realize that you are saying any sane mafia will push for iGrok's lynch and then you proceed to try and lynch iGrok. | ||
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The simplest explanation is that he is telling the truth. It's so easy to vote for him and have a superficial reason for an explanation. Everyone's "justification" amounts to nothing more than "He's lying. Let's lynch him because I think I'm right". | ||
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On September 23 2011 21:16 Palmar wrote: this is incorrect, a serial killer is a threat to the mafia, especially when the mafia is doing well. In addition, mafia loses town cred by pushing townie lynches and gains it by killing 3rd parties. Mafia gains town cred by killing 3rd parties. Yes, exactly what I want to try and stop. | ||
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On September 24 2011 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes, unless he shoots another scum at night. You do realize he has already SHOT AND KILLED MAFIA. What more do you need? | ||
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On September 24 2011 04:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: I'd rather kill SK if there are no better candidates. That's exactly the mentality that has really dominated decisions on every lynch. Mafia would love to lynch 3rd parties. They will survive yet again another lynch while we learn minimum from a neutral flip. You admit that you think he's most likely neutral 3rd party. Notice how almost none of the justifications of the votes on the neutrals follow your reasoning. Because it's almost always the wrong move to try and lynch a likely 3rd party neutral. So how is it mainly being justified? He has to be lying. He's mafia but EVEN IF he isn't, he'll give us information. Can we please look to someone on the Jackal lynch? | ||
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On September 17 2011 10:12 OriginalName wrote: I just want to point out how important this is before i read thread. The original quote is by Radfield. His very first post is saying, "Good town post Radfield. Everyone should be listening to you." On September 17 2011 11:10 OriginalName wrote: I sort of see why people are suspicous but it really boils down to a poor reaction to a really null tell (IE fishing for the ring as if you noted i fished for the wand in PYP2 and flipped town) I want to see how things develop first. Greymist is sort of suspicious so don't worry about the people (one of whom is Dr Helvetica) who are voting for Greymist. They are justified, but I'm also staying really noncommittal in case this actually results in a lynch. On September 18 2011 03:34 OriginalName wrote: Im 99% sure DrH is not doing the exact same thing as Drazerk to begin with... Another indirect defense of Dr Helvetica. Didn't read it in context. He just saw DrH and came to his defense. On September 19 2011 04:26 OriginalName wrote: Im not voting WBG, he reeks of the weird combination of my play in PTP2 and incogs play (althought not as strong) in PYPI. Frankly I see Prpl as a decent lynch, but I see the reasoning behind Jackal at the same time. This however seems kind of off to me, Basically hes soft claiming some sort of day vigilante, would you care to explain this better prpl? Bluefishing. It's obviously a joke. More noncommittal attitudes on Jackal and prplhz. Great. What changes his mind? On September 19 2011 04:39 OriginalName wrote: Then your completely out of your fucking mind. You claim ability to kill two random lurkers given by god. Then laugh in my face. This ridiculous exchange with prplhz that supposedly tips him over the fence. Nice excuse not to provide any analysis. On September 20 2011 11:31 OriginalName wrote: Im going to focus on the people who stayed on bugs until the end of yesterday for my lynch targets today. This is mostly based on most of them managing to lurk harder than me. Which saying alot I personally dont like the vibe i get off of iGrok/DrH. I avoided DrH yesterday because i was increadably unsure of WBG until later on and I decided based on the reasons i have stated to move over to Errandor. Pyo I even forgot was playing until about he a few posts one of which was chastising my FoS on Navillus which i by the way look back on and realize that I was being an idiot. His reasoning behind voting WBG basically went oh DrH said hes third party so im going to agree without posting my own contributions and uses this reasoning: Hes just adovacting a pure info lynch that really doesnt tell us jackshit in either case. Afterwords WBG then calls him out for the same thing I am he responds with this: I dont see any bizarre third party claim, I see hints at it but it obviously wasnt what he had in mind. Sure he was trolling abit but this seems like a really weak line of reasoning, despite how we were starting to realize that he probably was not scum. He also does nothing BUT push WBG almost refusing to otherwise consider other candidates other than call out Archo_Toilet for being scummier than GGQ who he was voting however he basically did one post and another paragraph later and did not pursue it much farther. Along with that he has completely flown under the radar and iirc not many people have called him out. As such I will be. ##Vote Pyo + Show Spoiler + if im on the wrong track again for the love of god speak now. His main analysis day 2 is on the one person attacking Radfield and his main reasoning is pyo's vote on WBG, null tells considering every lynch was on a townie. And who is the only one who agrees with him on his accusation? Radfield. On September 22 2011 06:39 Radfield wrote: I'm more sure of Jackal than Palmar. Jackal has done nothing this game but antagonize and cut players down, yet has no reads at all of those people. Palmar is on the short list, but I see no reason to put a bunch of reads out and let mafia cherry pick the lynch. On September 22 2011 07:12 OriginalName wrote: Im voting jackal. Not much more to say I could write a huge massive wall of text that you guys wont read anyways but I feel like actually enjoying RL. Jist of it is: Meh D1 with shitty excuses Some random contradition about 95% of the time he has shit reads on D1 and then swears on his grave that it was a good read, then turns out to be a shit read. + Show Spoiler + Im just going to point out my opinion on WBG, yes he trolled the shit out of us for 24-36 hours but the last few hours he just seemed townie to me. lastly now that we have lots of pressure on him he just uses shitty one liners to defend himself. ##Vote Jackal58 He clearly follows Radfield's lead for his final vote. ##Vote: Original_Name | ||
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On September 24 2011 07:41 raynpelikoneet wrote: heist: What is ON flips town? Then we have to lynch iGrok for the THIRD time lol. And no matter what he flips after that is gonna be you. And if your analysis on ON was just horribly wrong, we had wasted 3 townmembers just to lynch iGrok. Guess what, then it's no use to even talk about LYLO anymore.. I'm not even considering to switch my vote off iGrok, unless he actually starts doing something (aka tells us who saruman is). He already failed to shoot last night, and now he comes up with this Saruman thing. Also i'm curious why Drazerk isn't dead already. ON's flip has nothing to do with iGrok. ON is simply my best suspicion for mafia. If he flips red, that tells you nothing about iGrok. If he flips green, the better alternative is not automatically iGrok. Do you see how easily the votes are piling on iGrok? Mafia are perfectly fine lynching a 3rd party. And what do you mean "no matter what he flips after that is gonna be you"? On September 24 2011 08:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: I'm just bored and iGrok is not helping. And if he's not helping i just have to sit and watch this thread like 24h :E Oh woe is you. Stop sitting on your ass with your easy iGrok vote. Look into other people. The game isn't won on the off-chance iGrok flips red. Please don't waste our time with foolish joke claims. | ||
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and yeah fine ill admit I was wrong about iGrok. | ||
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I strongly recommend looking more closely at the people who voted for Jackal day 2. Greymist chaoser - no mafia vibe Drazerk -no mafia vibe raynpelikoneet jcarlsoniv - no mafia vibe TranceStorm OriginalName kitaman - no mafia vibe My suspicions are largely still on ON but at this point, it's mainly because he's the only vet on the list that I have suspicions for. He should be playing better as town. I'm going to be honest, I'm not really trusting my instincts at this point. *On Drazerk: Curu told him prplhz was hit. Drazerk knows he protected him. I think he inferred it was a stacked hit rather than unblockable. | ||
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Most of us believe Kita's claim as tracker. Most of us believe Chaoser can only be 3rd party or town. Why are they our two best candidates? I don't want to lynch someone guaranteed to not be scum, but at the same time, how are you guys so sure of your convictions on a confirmed tracker? And please waiting a few hours before revealing is not that big of a deal. I'd still rather lynch ON than those two. | ||
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On September 28 2011 07:08 Drazerk wrote: No which is why I am not voting for either at the moment I think you and I are in the same boat, contrary to the confidence Palmar has. | ||
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Greymist raynpelikoneet jcarlsoniv TranceStorm Out of these 4, at least 1 is mafia. Bet on it. | ||
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So in essence, gut read. I have no clear reads on anyone anymore esp. with the ON flip. | ||
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Today's lynch, remember, was mainly on 4 people ([g]ON[/g], [g]kita[/g], Palmar, Chaoser. I don't see how we find scum based on voting or accusations. | ||
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jcarl, if you want people to trust: Drazerk and Kita are the only ones, and that's only because they roleclaimed. I dont see anyone else wanting to share so ya, not much I can say to you about myself. Today's lynch, remember, was mainly on 4 people (ON, kita, Palmar, Chaoser. I don't see how we find scum based on voting or accusations. | ||
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On September 28 2011 11:27 Palmar wrote: thanks god I'm dying tonight. I'm seriously speechless over how bad this town is. I'll take a chunk of the blame. My activity was sporadic and my reads were pretty off. But let's kill Palmar for sure tonight, shall we? | ||
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On September 30 2011 05:00 Cyber_Cheese wrote: There's only been a single majority lynch so far, and all three of the others were late swings in which TranceStorm had a participatory role. He's been taking the votes late, looking to make sure it's safe to climb upon the wagon's and made sure he's voting with the majority to try to avoid suspicion by hiding amongst townies. Late swings in which his vote is unnecessary. Why would he do that unless he believed in the lynch as a townie? | ||
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Final Vote Count for the Jackal Lynch that saved iGrok day 2: Greymist chaoser Radfield Drazerk raynpelikoneet jcarlsoniv TranceStorm OriginalName I'm almost positive there's at least one more mafia in here. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
There's no way we should be focusing on a 3rd party lynch anyways. Go for mafia or go for broke. I'll post my thoughts on TS later. Although, honestly my basis is that at least 2 mafia voted for Jackal day 2. I don't know how reliable that is as a starting point, but I'll look through and see if there's anything more concrete than the stuff on pyo. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 01 2011 05:19 Drazerk wrote: Guys does anyone else find it oddly suspicious Mafia would send out a message saying Jcarl is Uglúk when they knew iGrok would probably be lynched the same day? I don't know but it's just giving me a bad feeling at the moment and something I want to look in to tonight / tomorrow It's not like it clears jcarl. It could only make people raise suspicion on jcarl for being singled out. I wouldn't look too much into or else you get caught up in a double psychology loop. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
Again, I looked at interactions with confirmed mafia. On September 17 2011 14:36 TranceStorm wrote: Debating about who should get the ring and what each role can or cannot do at the moment is pointless at the current time. However, I do like one of the plans that was proposed by a few people: having the person who successfully passed on the ring claim themselves. This way, we can enable a 'chain' to be made - i.e. the first player can confirm the second player once the second player has passed on the ring themselves. This is all dependent on the assumption that evil players cannot pass the ring themselves which as Radfield pointed out, is probably a true assumption. Given this, however, this plan would probably only be effective for the first few 'passes' and perhaps near the end of the game when town circles become more clear. The risk after the first few days that the person holding the ring is killed, or has the ring stolen (which is a possible role according to the OP) makes the plan ineffective. Therefore, I think that such a plan should work for the first 2 or 3 days to confirm at least one or two people. Any thoughts or ideas about this? I haven't fully fleshed this out yet (i.e. the possibility of fake claims is strong), but its probably a better discussion than the arbitrary finger-pointing going on at the moment. Bad plan. Whatever. Either you are a townie posting your plan with maybe a higher purpose of discussion (which he tries to defend himself as doing when everyone shits on his plan) OR you are mafia trying to slip in a bad plan for town to follow and derail discussion on a ill-formed plan. Null-tell. But what is interesting, is you start off your posts with an automatic belief in Radfield's assumptions. You trust him. Pretty harmless at first but let's look further. On September 17 2011 14:58 TranceStorm wrote: You make a fair point about how Radfield's post was more based upon game mechanics than any actual analysis. However, you follow this up with a summary of some rather obvious conclusions derived from the thread and some generic advice of your own! I would love to see you 'ask people questions' and figure out the intent of their posts as well. Yes, yes "fair point" but then you proceed to soft defend Radfield by attacking chaos' post. On September 22 2011 06:03 TranceStorm wrote: Well that sounds reasonable. I am concerned about how the town is supposed to direct iGrok's night kill when we are divided as is though. Nevertheless, I'll look between Jackal and Palmar now. Is now taking complete guidance from Radfield. His votes are being informed entirely by Radfield. He has moves off iGrok and is ready to switch last minute onto a bandwagon of Radfield's choosing. **As a side note, Radfield I have to applaud you for how well you (mis)led the town. On September 18 2011 01:18 Radfield wrote: This is a bunk vote. Bad plans are pushed all the time, mostly by townies as scum generally have very little motivation to push a bad plan. Bad plans need refinement, not votes. Fact is, if the player who has the ring DOES pass it, he should likely claim. Either he is counterclaimed later when frodo/bilbo actually passes it, or he is confirmed. It doesn't help us immensely, but it certainly doesn't hinder. Radfield returns the favor defending TranceStorm. No one look at Trancestorm, he's just a bad townie with a bad plan. On September 17 2011 15:27 TranceStorm wrote: @DrH. Fine, those are valid points. I didn't fully flesh out my plan as well as I imagined it would be and underestimated the risks. But, wouldn't it be a good idea to set the rule that if a player does ever pass on the ring, they reveal its powers? We already know that everyone wants the ring (both town and non-town) so I think it would be beneficial to town discussion to know the ring powers. (if they don't change like you fear they might). Many people criticize his plan. Trancestorm makes an effort to address everything thrown at him and when it seems like he's failing to convince people he adds the customary "at least I'm generating discussion which is TOWN". But to DrH, it's simply: You're right. I made a bad plan and you, and only you, get the credit for correcting me. Good job. Only DrH gets him to see the error of his plan when other people have already chimed in with what is essentially the same arguments. On September 19 2011 04:25 TranceStorm wrote: You made a long analysis to justify why you voted for Dr. H. Then you changed to Jackal (after he had already received a couple of votes) saying that you wanted to pressure him. There is still no justification at all for you vote. Considering that you had already shown that you were willing to give analysis on other people, I find your vote super suspicious hence my vote. Now you say that it's too late for you to move your vote. You still haven't justified your vote at all, and are basically admitting that you didn't have one in the first place. End of the day, he votes for the candidate who makes an analysis attacking DrH. ----- Now what else do we have: - The late bandwagons and his voting patterns. - Really anti-iGrok, but who wasn't? (oh yeah me). Attacking cyber_cheese primarily for his votes and for defending iGrok. Rayn is right. This little interaction between the two of them is a little weird. I have no idea what to make of it but at best, only one of the town is mafia. Am I entirely convinced? Not completely. Radfield did a really good job of getting townies to do what he wanted. ON had many of the same mistakes and he flipped town. The late bandwagons are iffy at best as tells for alignment, and Cyber and TS can just be two townies who can't stop tunneling each other. TS was simply the better alternative to Cyber at the time. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 01 2011 06:14 Pyo wrote: scum team: heist, chaoser, kitaman stop being deliberately useless | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 01 2011 06:15 Pyo wrote: ##unvote ##vote: chaoser What the hell is this? Chaoser has killed a mafia member. Chaoser is not mafia. We are trying to lynch mafia. Mafia, mafia, mafia. Put your vote to better use. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 01 2011 06:48 TranceStorm wrote: @heist - You say that my interaction with Radfield was a respectful one. That's true, but go back and read through his posts once again - they are quite sensible and logical in their argumentation. I like many other players, was misled by him. No one really put up a fight against his arguments at all during the hours before each lynch (it was only after the lynch that people started saying 'Obviously he wasn't mafia'). Furthermore, think for a moment where my votes came in on both of the those lynches. They both came in at times when the person who I voted for had a large chance of being lynched. If I truly was mafia, wouldn't I have simply said "I don't feel comfortable about this lynch" and voted for another candidate to appear safer? Why would I knowingly vote for the townie candidate in both days 1 and 2 when people had already pointed out the suspicion revolving around my plan? I admit both of these things in my conclusion. At this point it's a matter of weighing in everything against pyo or cyber. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
Are we sure of this? | ||
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United States720 Posts
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United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
I don't think it's TS. That leaves it to GGQ and cyber. My vote goes to cyber. | ||
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United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
Mig I wish you the best in all your endeavors. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
Also, Drazerk was shot under my protection. So I know for sure he's not mafia. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 02 2011 22:31 kitaman27 wrote: I've got a couple questions for you heist. Yesterday, you were pushing Trace for the lynch. You said you were almost positive that there would be a second mafia on this lynch. Does this mean you've changed your mind on trance? If so, what made you switch to cheese? + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2011 10:20 heist wrote: Actually, I'll be changing my vote to trancestorm. Final Vote Count for the Jackal Lynch that saved iGrok day 2: Greymist chaoser Radfield Drazerk raynpelikoneet jcarlsoniv TranceStorm OriginalName I'm almost positive there's at least one more mafia in here. On October 01 2011 06:23 heist wrote: TranceStorm Again, I looked at interactions with confirmed mafia. Bad plan. Whatever. Either you are a townie posting your plan with maybe a higher purpose of discussion (which he tries to defend himself as doing when everyone shits on his plan) OR you are mafia trying to slip in a bad plan for town to follow and derail discussion on a ill-formed plan. Null-tell. But what is interesting, is you start off your posts with an automatic belief in Radfield's assumptions. You trust him. Pretty harmless at first but let's look further. Yes, yes "fair point" but then you proceed to soft defend Radfield by attacking chaos' post. Is now taking complete guidance from Radfield. His votes are being informed entirely by Radfield. He has moves off iGrok and is ready to switch last minute onto a bandwagon of Radfield's choosing. **As a side note, Radfield I have to applaud you for how well you (mis)led the town. Radfield returns the favor defending TranceStorm. No one look at Trancestorm, he's just a bad townie with a bad plan. Many people criticize his plan. Trancestorm makes an effort to address everything thrown at him and when it seems like he's failing to convince people he adds the customary "at least I'm generating discussion which is TOWN". But to DrH, it's simply: You're right. I made a bad plan and you, and only you, get the credit for correcting me. Good job. Only DrH gets him to see the error of his plan when other people have already chimed in with what is essentially the same arguments. End of the day, he votes for the candidate who makes an analysis attacking DrH. ----- Now what else do we have: - The late bandwagons and his voting patterns. - Really anti-iGrok, but who wasn't? (oh yeah me). Attacking cyber_cheese primarily for his votes and for defending iGrok. Rayn is right. This little interaction between the two of them is a little weird. I have no idea what to make of it but at best, only one of the town is mafia. Am I entirely convinced? Not completely. Radfield did a really good job of getting townies to do what he wanted. ON had many of the same mistakes and he flipped town. The late bandwagons are iffy at best as tells for alignment, and Cyber and TS can just be two townies who can't stop tunneling each other. TS was simply the better alternative to Cyber at the time. It's LYLO so you might as well claim. I find it curious that you are trying to making yourself a confirmed town based on the fact that you have to be in the game, yet you're willing to vote Merry in an instant. Yes I've changed my mind on TS. Looking over his history, I realized a lot of my suspicions were based on TS being led by Radfield. I already made the mistake with ON, every other vibe about TS is telling me town. Also, Merry's got nothing on Elrond. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
At this point, Drazerk and Chaoser are confirmed non-mafia. Everyone else: Cyber_cheese GGQ TS Kita (iffy I know) Depending on the number of mafia left, that's who I'd kill in order. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
On September 28 2011 07:11 heist wrote: I think you and I are in the same boat, contrary to the confidence Palmar has. Same boat. We're the same role. Also, if things get ugly, I get a free boat ride outta here, exclusive only to elves. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 03 2011 04:42 chaoser wrote: lol, that's not even a breadcrumb. You're not even talking about the same thing. Since the beginning of the game you've only ever defended people. The only person you try to make a case on is Drazerk. If what kita said is true, which, his logs seem to match, then not only did heist try to stop kita from claiming here but also bluefished for who killed Radfield. Kita, you previously only posted part of your logs with the time stamp, can you post the rest of it? On October 03 2011 04:53 chaoser wrote: Also, you post this: Archon never responds back to you on that and posts: spam for the next few posts and yet you moved on to ON, never to look back on Archon again. Also why do you think TS is no longer mafia? 1. Archon's been doing stuff like that all game. I was just annoyed at him for being useless, not for surefire scumminess. 2. If you look through, you'll realize Drazerk is certainly not the only person I try to make a case on. 3. So... at that point in the game, we should have automatically believed any claim of secret communication with Radfield? Nothing wrong with my logic there. 4. All of the TS stuff hinges on TS and Radfield deliberately working together as a mafia team. When in actuality, it's much more plausible he just followed him because he seemed like such a good townie. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
And guys I am confirmed town. I don't know why I'm even up for debate... Kita answer me this. In your best guess, why haven't mafia RBed Drazerk and killed you? | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
Either you have a 50% chance to die for nothing if you hide behind mafia or You throw someone else in front of you (someone who could actually have blue powers) just to save yourself. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
What's with this "if", won't you live regardless of being targeted if you are hiding? | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
1. Any attacks on you will miss. 2. The only way to kill you at night (assuming you target a townie) is if your target gets hit. The hit will apply to both of you. 3. Yet you can also protect your target? wtf? | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 03 2011 13:16 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Because then if I survive I can protect the person I was behind. Explain. | ||
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United States720 Posts
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United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
I think it's about a 50/50 toss-up between TS and Kita. I find it extremely suspicious Kita wasn't killed off. If it comes down to the two of them, I'll probably lean toward Kita as the last mafia unless something happens that really changes my mind. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
sry i got roleblocked. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
actually why bother? i'm just going to go vote. | ||
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United States720 Posts
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United States720 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
On October 10 2011 08:16 GGQ wrote: Game is over? Heist, you protected TranceStorm? REALLY? lol | ||
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United States720 Posts
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United States720 Posts
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