|
On August 25 2011 06:51 Erandorr wrote:
I probably should explain : Notice how bad Cyber has been playing before, note then that he didnt answer any of my accusations and found the one point in my post that could be used as a deversion.
Either he is really , really shitty town or badly playing SCUM/ EA
I believe town is best off lynching somebody, as I've stated before, if my pushing to lynch somebody makes me that somebody, so be it I had it coming.
On August 25 2011 06:54 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote:On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't. this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision? *everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa* Now what? you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense. ##vote:cyber cheese
As opposed to what? psyche dying and us having no clue as to who?
for someone opposed to random lynching, the 50/50 on the person being EH this presents should look more appealing than 4/11 (assuming both mafia got a kill and psych died to EH overnight, maybe even 4/10 if we lynch today and it's town)
granted there are more variables to consider than just those there, but I'm telling you that 50/50 is potentially the best it is going to get.
|
On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote:
Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles? No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb. If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible. You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
Tnkted was the first to vote against me, given that he's been considered suspicious already I would definitely hold him to blame in that scenario
|
On August 25 2011 07:52 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind? Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory. Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch" Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town. You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH.
Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there
I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum
It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?
|
On August 25 2011 08:09 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. tldr: lynching is good. this is a pretty long and useless post indeed. i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people. why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation. and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility?
It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less
|
|
|
##Unvote
By way overwhelming amounts of accusations I'm going to cut back on the voting
I still say it's ferryman and I'll gladly be responsible for it if he's town, but I'll cast that vote later after anyone chooses to agree with me
|
On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
|
While your looking into people that havn't said much:
Is it just me, or does Chaos keep talking about going into more detail while never actually doing so?
On August 24 2011 12:37 chaos13 wrote:
I haven't got time to devote to proper posting tonight. I've skimmed through everything so far, and I'm glad to see that the spam has cut down and we've got good discussion going.
My initial thoughts:
1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip.
2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious.
3. tnkted is probably scum
4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.
I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.
On August 24 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote:
Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted?
Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?
On August 24 2011 20:57 chaos13 wrote:
It's a 48 hour day cycle, isn't it? That's what the OP states.
On August 24 2011 20:59 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 23:45 Hesmyrr wrote:
The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST And this. We've got another day still.
On August 24 2011 21:27 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide.
Am I alone here? Not at all. However, I'm not always the best scumhunter, so I'd like to call on the analysis skills of Jackal58. Jackal, what do you think of tnkted's play so far in this game? I'm also going to vote tnkted, since I can always change it later if need be. ##Vote: tnkted
|
On August 25 2011 08:48 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why? At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed. You wanna redo that one champ.
Oh my mistake, it was supposed to signify one or the other.
|
On August 25 2011 09:01 Navillus wrote:I am going to focus on scumhunting because only a very bad EH would make it obvious enough who they are that we could correctly lynch them day 1. So first I would like to quickly draw attention to Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles? Now this is a standard scum play, let town accuse someone then set it up for the accuser to get lynched if the accused flips town this is illogical the full argument that you would need to accept to make this make sense includes it being impossible for a townie to mislynch, or to be wrong, I think we can all agree that this is not the case and this argument simply leads to what are essentially revenge lynches. That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO ##Vote Cyber_Cheese
So tl;dr you'd lynch me to promote lurker play?
|
If the last sentince of that paragraph was not "in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO"
You might have a point there, and the tl;dr i summized might actually be inaccurate
|
Ok, because I'm on the verge of being lynched I took an objective look over my posts, and realised something. The people least afraid of looking like scum are town, and in most games they don't even realise they are doing it. I've done the not caring a little bit too much apparently.
I would promote discussion on chaos and eiii before putting the nail in my coffin.
|
well im going to be away a while
just in case i miss the deadline, im going to
##Vote Tnkted
for a few reasons
1) and lets start with the petty one, he's the one who first bought me up as a suspected scum, in an effort to save his own hide
2) I voted for him previously before stopping to vote for the EH, since im not sure which of wiggles or ferryman i believe to be EH more, Tnkted seems like a safer lynch option
3) Chaos made a pretty convincing post, and it wasn't the first of it's ilk
|
The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much
That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons:
1) He might actually be scum
2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet
|
On August 25 2011 21:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 21:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much
That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons:
1) He might actually be scum
2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet Why are you more concerned with not being wrong than killing scum?
Uh yea I see how it could come across that way in hindsight
I don't think he's innocent, I'm just saying I think he made himself look guilty in the same manner I did, more or less
And noones specifically come out to defend him either if i'm not mistaken
I'm looking for parallels that reflect in my play to learn the differences between sc2 and forum mafia as I go
|
Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
+ Show Spoiler [Breadcrumbing Revisited] +
The doc does not breadcrumb, straightforward.
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves
essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych
if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b
if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50
Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
|
On August 26 2011 06:49 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon + Show Spoiler [Breadcrumbing Revisited] +
The doc does not breadcrumb, straightforward.
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves
essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych
if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b
if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50
Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions? on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this. but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Since you asked: Sevryn is a person I consider to be in much the same boat as Eiii, with the whole lurking thing
On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 09:35 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted. Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill. yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
I've been looking through the arguments on breadcrumbing, having read the latest version I believe there are very few reasons that we should be saying the plan wouldn't work, but outright denying it?
It doesn't seem very pro-town to be outright trying to shutdown any plan which might make town create an organized way of searching for the EH.
Of note we should mention it was his idea that everybody breadcrumb and then we can check the psych when he dies, which would have been a resurrection of the original plan without actually removing much EH bias.
At the moment he doesn't particularly stand out overall, he needs more time in the spotlight to form anything solid.
As for palmars cancelled vote?
Both voting off someone you suspect to be a townie and using an extension day 1 are bad options, I don't really see it as much except him considering it the lesser of two evils, there is too much back and forth between him and tnkted. I think a real scum would have lynched Tnkted if he were innocent so we could bring it to night
And a freebie that wasn't in the question Ferryman seems to be clutching at straws now for lynching Wiggles, the whole EH thing doesn't work so he accuses him of mafia instead?
As a townie in wiggles shoes, would you have suggested that your a mafia when the accusations are of you being the EH? I don't know about you guys but the 'trap' definitely would have got me
|
On August 26 2011 10:42 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 10:27 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 10:20 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 09:35 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted. Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill. yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides. On August 26 2011 08:35 Jackal58 wrote:On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote:I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push. On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted. how is sevryn remotely related to tnkted? Subtle disconnects. + Show Spoiler +On August 25 2011 02:08 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through
If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too? + Show Spoiler +On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right. Right... What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town? I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up. Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game. Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers. Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well. Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch. I want to talk about this post, though: On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets). I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days. So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1. ##Unvote
##Vote Palmar Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play. ##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles Subtle disconnects. a stunning argument okay that actually makes sense who would you like psych to visit? same question @ eii me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
I understand your reasoning, but I don't think it's in towns best interests to check you.
In my opinion: We should have the psych visit the people we suspect the most of being the EH checked as early as possible, to minimize the odds that the horror finds the psych first
It's also a good method of alleviating EH pressure from wrongfully accused townies, should that situation exsist.
As such, I think it currently makes the most sense for psych to visit MrWiggles, if we aren't going to lynch him.
If we lynch Wiggles and he turns out not to be the horror, I would check Ferryman overnight instead.
However, with that said, Sevryn is currently one of the people I'd like to have checked early in
|
On August 26 2011 16:36 Navillus wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 14:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 26 2011 14:15 Navillus wrote:
Hmmm choosing who the psych checks actually does sound like a good idea, Wiggles, would you object to us agreeing for the psych to check you tonight? I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though. Ahhh this did not help you in my eyes, are you or are you not ok with it not, "I'm fine with it but he shouldn't" so for one I think mafia kills show up differently, actually [green]will a suicide be announced as a suicide, different from a murder[green]If suicides are announced differently then the only screw-up would be EH guessing right night1 There is a 1/11 chance of EH guessing correctly night1 which means if we do agree to check you and the psych dies the only way it wouldn't mean that you're EH is that 1/11 chance, and honestly I would auto-vote you on 10-1 odds, my question is would you accept this including getting lynched if the psych commits suicide, or are you really that worried about that 1/11 chance?
it wont matter, we'll see if hes sane or not
|
On the candidate pool:
Wiggles first-
We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base
While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4
At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes
Myself-
I'm not going to vote myself
Which leaves Palmar and Tnkted-
I'm not an expert on this, was it easier or harder than usual to get votes for tnkted?
If it's been harder oneself could assume the mafias supporting him, but if it's been easier than it should then I feel i should move my vote
because I've been thinking about this quote of Palmars
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote:
I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
I'm suspecting Tnkted was onto something, and we've let it slide
I'm not sure exactly how strong the back story is, but it seems the kind of joke that would be best if they were both mafia, and/or at the least Palmar was
The question is why was he thinking of convincing people that he was town from the get-go, and combined with the whole disregarding the win condition seeming to separate the two unnecessarily if he were to be a town role
Also of note is the choice of derp as an initial reply, it would seem the most logical choice if he were to be admitting to a mistake
Note that this differs from Navillus on two areas
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote:
Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
1) No matter what Navillus role is, it's something that someone might think to say
2) When called out on it, he didn't react defensively, and chose to vote back on the person who voted him, indicating a lack of concern that he had aroused suspicion
That alone, sure it's fine, but combined with the changing vote /extension use thing
There were a lot of people defending Palmar, certainly more than Tnkted
It all leads me to this
##Unvote
##Vote Palmar
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
