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I'm scared 
I say we lynch ON/red today.
Odds:
If there's 3 mafia, that means they comprise 3/10 of us. That means we lynch 2 people, we have 3/10+3/9 of hitting at least one=66%. Go with a scummy guy=almost guaranteed lynch.
Let's say there's 3 mafia and we can for sure pin one of 3 of them. Then we have a 2/9 chance of lynching the other guy=1/10 chance of lynching TWO mafia.
So, if our reads are good we have at least a 10% chance of hitting two mafia. Chance of hitting 2 town = 7/10 times 6/9 which is 46% if we just pick randomly. So more than 54% of the time we're hitting mafia.
That's based on PURE chance. Let's get some analysis going.
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Holy banana muffins.
Was not expecting 5 people dead.
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You guys are idiots. I'll check back when we are lynching bum/ON. To my EXTREME surprise bum did not get lynched, I wonder what that means.
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On September 03 2011 09:29 sandroba wrote:
You guys are idiots. I'll check back when we are lynching bum/ON. To my EXTREME surprise bum did not get lynched, I wonder what that means.
Block of someone voting bum and a pious voting for sinani?
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As long as OriginalName is in the lynchlist I'm fine with it, we just can't let him escape today.
##vote OriginalName
I sincerely doubt I'm wrong about this read, but I need time to think about a secondary/tertiary target. Ace didn't die last night so he's pretty high on my list. Palmar didn't die either so he's up there too.
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For MORE clarification, Revive powers can only target dead players. If a player is dead for more than one full day, they cannot be Revived again. If a player has been revived once already, they cannot be revived again if killed.
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Coroner, I know you have a pretty tricky job to do but I'm going to help you out. Since you can't communicate with me I'll just give you a name:
Check the corpse of Sinani. If you dont say anything once the corpse is checked, I will take your silence as confirmation of Sinani's innocence. That way the priest can revive him knowing he is town aligned.
Otherwise take the chance and speak out if you find Sinani to be Scum.
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Just got a PM saying I was RB'ed.
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You voted for bum? This probably means bum is mafia, no?
Kill him?
Unless they thought you just had a power, in which case they might have conveniently planted a red herring because bum was already scummy...
We need people to post damn it -_- this inactivity is bothering me
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if a vig shot, hes a fucking idiot.
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JAH KEN COME PLAY LOL PLZZZZ
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Ace do you think it's possible there is more than 3 mafia? or that mafia has more than 1 extra kp, assuming the 3rd came from them? From a balance stand point we are likely facing 3 mafia, so that means we 100% missed both lynches since the kp did not get reduced. There is no point checking into the lynches, since they are most likely town either way, so maybe check into the nks?
I have a pretty good explanation why mafia used the minion shot so early. Bum is the minion. Despite roleblocking me they couldn't be 100% he would've survived because of pious shenanigans. So they decided not to risk losing kp and used it day1. There you go.
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On September 03 2011 09:49 wherebugsgo wrote:
You voted for bum? This probably means bum is mafia, no?
Kill him?
Unless they thought you just had a power, in which case they might have conveniently planted a red herring because bum was already scummy...
We need people to post damn it -_- this inactivity is bothering me
Yes, despite all the wifom bum is most likely mafia.
##Vote: Bumatlarge
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On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us.
Im pretty sure mafia kp was 3. I figured there might be 5 or 6 mafia in the game. So, assuming I was right, that means we either hit 1 or 0 scum with lynches. I'm hoping we hit 1. The double lynch plus no nights into 3 mafia kp makes deaths very fast. We can assume 2 will come back today with resurrect + reanimate. Idk, it's all kind of overwhelming...
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On September 03 2011 09:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:On September 03 2011 09:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK MAFIA KP IS 3 We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us. Im pretty sure mafia kp was 3. I figured there might be 5 or 6 mafia in the game. So, assuming I was right, that means we either hit 1 or 0 scum with lynches. I'm hoping we hit 1. The double lynch plus no nights into 3 mafia kp makes deaths very fast. We can assume 2 will come back today with resurrect + reanimate. Idk, it's all kind of overwhelming...
WTF? 5-6? This is no flip, man. Mafia has 3 members most likely and 2kp, probably with a 1 shot minion.
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On September 03 2011 10:00 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 09:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:On September 03 2011 09:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK MAFIA KP IS 3 We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us. Im pretty sure mafia kp was 3. I figured there might be 5 or 6 mafia in the game. So, assuming I was right, that means we either hit 1 or 0 scum with lynches. I'm hoping we hit 1. The double lynch plus no nights into 3 mafia kp makes deaths very fast. We can assume 2 will come back today with resurrect + reanimate. Idk, it's all kind of overwhelming... WTF? 5-6? This is no flip, man. Mafia has 3 members most likely and 2kp, probably with a 1 shot minion.
I suppose...I guess I'm just used to bigger games, and this is the first no flip game I've played. Alright, so let's assume I was overestimating (a much safer assumption). Are we sure bum wasn't sniped by a vig? If he was, maybe his death would register before the lynch? I'm going to have to take a bit to weigh possibilities once I get home.
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On September 03 2011 10:10 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 10:00 sandroba wrote:On September 03 2011 09:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:On September 03 2011 09:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK MAFIA KP IS 3 We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us. Im pretty sure mafia kp was 3. I figured there might be 5 or 6 mafia in the game. So, assuming I was right, that means we either hit 1 or 0 scum with lynches. I'm hoping we hit 1. The double lynch plus no nights into 3 mafia kp makes deaths very fast. We can assume 2 will come back today with resurrect + reanimate. Idk, it's all kind of overwhelming... WTF? 5-6? This is no flip, man. Mafia has 3 members most likely and 2kp, probably with a 1 shot minion. I suppose...I guess I'm just used to bigger games, and this is the first no flip game I've played. Alright, so let's assume I was overestimating (a much safer assumption). Are we sure bum wasn't sniped by a vig? If he was, maybe his death would register before the lynch? I'm going to have to take a bit to weigh possibilities once I get home.
Bum isn't dead dude, wtf are you going on about?
I agree with sandroba on this one, and until there's a better reason out there, I gotta go for scumbum.
I still support an ON lynch and I am still actively looking for people to contribute so we can begin analysis afresh.
##unvote OriginalName
##vote bumatlarge
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On September 03 2011 09:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:On September 03 2011 09:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK MAFIA KP IS 3 We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us. Im pretty sure mafia kp was 3. I figured there might be 5 or 6 mafia in the game. So, assuming I was right, that means we either hit 1 or 0 scum with lynches. I'm hoping we hit 1. The double lynch plus no nights into 3 mafia kp makes deaths very fast. We can assume 2 will come back today with resurrect + reanimate. Idk, it's all kind of overwhelming...
Ace's Journal Day 2 Entry 1
One of the creatures shows a fascinating infatuation with mathematics. How amazed was I see to see it draw the number "5" in the sand, using only his left pinky toe at that!. Sadly, when I tried to communicate with the cretin, it showed no ability at reason or logic, and quickly defecated on the figure it made, grinning at me like some impetuous demon. Intriguing if I dare say.
~End~
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EPT
