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TL Mafia XLIV - Page 6
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Curu
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On August 24 2011 04:42 chaoser wrote: You all know where my vote stands and there it shall stay. Dropbear's odd timing and then his claim as the medic that saved Foolishness, combined with the fact that no one has counterclaimed it leads me to trust his claim. As a consequence of that I trust Foolishness to be town. Thanks for the post discussing nothing relevant to what's happened recently. We get it, you want to OMGUS Mig. | ||
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##Unvote Vote hiro protagonist | ||
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On August 24 2011 04:48 Kurumi wrote: ##vote Mig You sound like you want to lynch hiro but stealth vote for Mig? | ||
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You don't even have a post about Mig and suddenly he's your lynch target? Why? Cause he's the one with the most votes on him? | ||
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On August 24 2011 04:55 Kurumi wrote: We have important Foolishness+DropBear link on that lynch, couple of players who are here for a while (chaoser and Jackal58), the more we know about these people (who are quite active and well-spoken) the better for us. I dunno I should re-read the thread since I've got time now. I don't even know how to respond to this. I'm sorry for the spam GMarshal, I'm going to take a bit and cool off before I go into Personality Mafia mode. hiro protagonist or xtfftc, I will be willing to lynch either today. Mig if absolutely necessary but I don't feel strongly about him, DB if a Medic counterclaims. We have 6 hours to lynch, we need to stop dicking around. | ||
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On August 24 2011 07:10 Palmar wrote: I would very much want to lynch BrownBear, but I'm not sure I can build the support for that case today. Of the other candidates there are some for points and some against. Hiro Protagonist has either very much stepped up his scum play, or I'm right and he's town, I don't want to lynch him today. xtffcasdio is much more scummy than hiro. But there is a certain impulsiveness in his posts. I can't exactly put my finger on it, but he's not gone below the "fishy" category for me yet. Which leaves Mig. The entire argument against Mig, is that he has done very, very little fingerpointing that matters this game. Mig is one to usually tear up the thread as town and find scum left and right. He says he's fed up with mafia at the moment, but I mean, it's huge wifom if he's actually telling the truth in that regard. There are other daming things in Mig's play. He has stuck down a total of 3 fos's in this game. One on Sevryn, where he called him lolscum, only to back it off later and try to switch the town to lynch chaoser. I don't know if Mig ever thought he could sway town with this switch, but it sure didn't look like he was pushing it. Lastly he wrote an analysis on DropBear, who has... well... played questionably throughout the game. I don't really mind this case, what I mind is the fact that Mig was wrong again, and seemed to be going for a target that was easy to hunt down. As I said much earlier in the thread, I have a fuckton of respect for Mig as a player, and given that respect, I don't think he can have done the things he has done unless he is either completely and utterly fed up with the game, or just not town-aligned. I find the latter more likely. ##Vote Mig Palmar I agree with you completely about Mig playing much worse than his normal standards. But to accuse him because he is wrong (how do you know that? DB could be crazy gambiting scum still, you yourself had him as a strong scum read) is asinine, did you not think his case was good? It shows that he put thought into it and actually tried to contribute something rather than a throwaway analysis. He may be wrong, but his case was well thought out and made sense, so IMO he's doing it as more than just some throwaway to push the pressure off himself. Compare that with hiro's posts, which are thoughtless and literally throwaway posts. That said, Mig you seriously need to wake up, come into this thread, and make more of an effort. That you are channeling spurts of Kenpachi is seriously annoying. | ||
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On August 24 2011 07:47 Palmar wrote: I form opinions, and I then try to objectively read the thread after that, but it's hard. I'm not afraid of being wrong, and I've quite often been right. Maybe this is the game where I'm wrong on all accounts, but I expect others to be able to pick that up. Also, why do you basically declare me town? Do you know my alignment? Because I read you as Town and I'm pretty sure scum Palmar wouldn't be trying to antagonize everyone left and right. | ||
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hiro looks worse than Mig to me, I'd much rather him be the lynch today. I'm trying to explain to you why, you respond with "Curu doesn't want to lynch Mig, so let's lynch Mig." | ||
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I don't want to go back through the thread right now, but whoever said "Curu post your own opinions on hiro" GTFO, I led this lynch. | ||
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That actually blows my mind. In case it wasn't obvious, DON'T CLAIM TO BE A ROLE THAT YOU ARE NOT. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=254174&user=53652 Read this and ask yourself what are Vain's serious contributions? Nothing. His posts consist of calling Palmar Town, casually suggesting nard and xtfftc as scum. Actually, he suggests nard and xtfftc as his top two scumreads with "I dunno" as his third. Let's take a look at the voting thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=256518&user=53652 Oh cool, he has two votes, both of which were extremely late votes on the person who was going to get lynched already. So he gives his top two scumreads when asked (note that he has never surrendered anything willingly) but does -nothing- to try to push his "reads" or draw attention to them/himself. Other than that he says some stuff like "if supersoft is townie we're fucked" - note this is when DB said he had a red check on supersoft. Why is he posting like he thinks supersoft is a Townie? Every other post is completely worthless. Nard is also a topic for everyone but nothing ever solidifies on him. Everything from his first post drips scumminess. He goes through these pointless lists that do nothing, like this: + Show Spoiler + 2. foolishness, why do you think Mig's post is more scummy than the last few posts of servyn? i kinda understand why the post sounds scummy as it adds nothing new and tries to convince, but what is your opinion about servyn then? 3. mig, foolishness has a point which shouldn't be forgotten. "Foolishness - I don't really agree with you that Mig is scummy. Mig - Foolishness is right, you are scummy, don't ignore him" WHAT Other than that leaves vague statements about how Town is doing, deposits his vote uselessly, never tries to lead anything or express an opinion. Like wtf is this post: here are my notes on hiro, will read up on Mig now. i have no idea what agenda hiro is pushing, except a way to obvious scummy one. Every day he includes a list of people he would like to look into or follow up on, every day he manages to only discuss a little bit of useless info then deposit his vote somewhere useless. The case against xtfftc has been worn out, but here's the latest: On August 24 2011 09:22 xtfftc wrote: Palmar, are you happy to push Chaos13's lynch with the condition that in case he is town, you die next? This is not Pro Town at all and is not indicative of a Pro Town mindset. No Townie can be certain of anyone else's alignment, we have to push our strongest reads. If everyone operated under the condition that if you are wrong you get lynched, nobody would ever try to push their opinions or develop leads. BrownBear doesn't have a single original post or opinion after the throwaway on JeeJee. Yeah you post a wall of text everyday, but it's a post-by-post analysis on one single person. You criticize Palmar for tunnelvision but look at yourself dude, except you don't even seem interested in trying to push your one tunneled person while Palmar is actually trying to get them lynched. chaos13 seems to be 1% less useless than he is when he's playing as scum. VE and Kurumi, I don't even know. | ||
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BrownBear’s day 1 play was undeniably scummy – he does try to influence the lynch, but he’s careful to be skirting the edges around it and ensuring that none of the blame falls onto him. As noted before, he put a vote on JeeJee that was essentially a throwaway vote, one that he never backed up nor tried to actually get people to discuss. He does switch to Sevyrn but note the timing and attitude of his vote: it came when the wagon had firmly started with the initial few votes. It came at a time when the wagon began to look like it would be diverted and wasn’t picking up any more votes. It came at a time when wherebugsgo attempted to call attention onto Vain. It came at a time when Palmar attempted to call attention onto BrownBear himself. His post offered nothing new, simply rehashing all the arguments already existing around Sevyrn to make sure people didn’t forget to keep voting him. All along the game a common theme has been present with BrownBear’s posting: telling people to quit tunneling, and telling people to quit posting useless stuff (he does both himself). He kicks off day 2 saying this: On August 23 2011 06:36 BrownBear wrote: Anyway, I'm looking through xfftc, Mig, Vain, and Hiro's posts. A lot of you guys have already done this, but those of you who haven't should do so! This is a scum objective post. He has noticed people who he thinks have posted in a scummy fashion and felt the need to point them out to us, but made no effort to make the analysis himself (note that all these people had already been called out by someone else earlier). Why? He didn’t want to be seen at the head of a mislynch of the Townies on that list, and he didn’t want to actively push for a lynch of the scum on that list. Following up this post he made a big long wall of text about why xtfftc was scum, conveniently after a whole load of other people had already started the case. No mention of Mig, Vain, or Hiro, only xtfftc. I believe at this point it is a fair assumption to assume BrownBear is scum, based on his posts and what Foolishness has already pointed out. Now for the real and relevant meat of this post (note that all analysis is under the assumption of a scum BrownBear): At the point of his vote, the two top vote getters were 6 on Mig and 4 on xtfftc (including his); this was a clear attempt to avoid being seen on Mig’s votecount. Two explanations for this: 1) Mig is scum and this is a diversion wagon from Mig 2) xtfftc is scum and BrownBear wanted a quick infusion of Town cred; xtfftc was at that point unlikely to get lynched and he could later point out that “look I was trying to lynch xtfftc.” He never actually tried to push xtfftc or debate with anyone to change their votes there. Why do I believe that xtfftc was a very unlikely lynch at that point? Take a look at how the voters fell: Mig(6) Foolishness chaoser Jackal58 DropBear Varpulis Curu xtfftc(4) supersoft hiro protagonist VisceraEyes (unvoted) wherebugsgo BrownBear The numbers are deceptively close but take a look at who is actually voting for whom. Foolishness, chaoser, Jackal, and me are all on Mig; of these four, Foolishness is widely respected and had huge Town cred and weight, chaoser had been tunnelfucking Mig all game already with no signs of letting up, Jackal is a respected player, I was pretty loud and about in making sure my opinion was heard in the thread. Not to mention Palmar was a lynch Mig advocate, to add on another person who was loud and about and who most people thought of as Town. No offense to supersoft, hiro protagonist, wherebugsgo, or VisceraEyes (sorry but lol at the last one), but IMO their weight and influence with the Town was much lesser than that of the above voter list. Option 1 is of course still the more obvious and likely scenario, but if Mig were to flip Town I would take a hard look at xtfftc again. What piqued this train of thought from me? xtfftc’s posts and his general attitude, as well as really being given a “free pass” by many simply for being the wagon building at the same time as Mig. It’s been pointed out, but xtfftc’s first posts were basically offering up early excuses for why people would not be active or interested in stating their opinions. What Town purpose does this serve? None whatsoever, this strikes me as subtle pushing of Mafia objectives. Note the tone that he posts these posts in – very jokingly, roleplaying, hiding under a cover of non-seriousness. After everyone disagreeing with him and him being called out for it, he came back with this post: On August 19 2011 08:46 xtfftc wrote: I don't have anything to add really - as long as we're all active, all is good. I'd just bear in mind that people don't want to die, even in a game. Backtracking immediately, saying that his posts didn’t actually have any point, but still subtly pushing that lurking behavior is somehow okay. When asked about his opinion on lurkers, he posts this: On August 19 2011 18:06 xtfftc wrote: I already explained my position on lurkers and their effect on the game. Asking me to repeat myself is generating spam - and we all know who benefits from spam. Yeah he already explained his position; his position was that lurking is okay because some Townies might be too afraid to post. This is a very anti-Town stance and he clearly doesn’t want to push an environment that discourages lurkers, but he doesn’t want to be seen again promoting his former stance. So he merely says he’s already made his opinion clear as a cop-out; he doesn’t have to contradict himself or continue to draw heat for promoting a pro-lurker game. He makes a post saying he will vote Palmar (he does not actually do this btw). Look at this post: On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote: ##Vote: Palmar … I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour. Why is he waiting for someone to convince him to switch to DropBear? So he can be absolved of blame in a DropBear mislynch? After he is called out by supersoft for his vote on Palmar, a huge contradiction comes up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=254174¤tpage=22#433 I really don’t understand what is going on in here at all. He thinks DropBear is scummy, he thinks Palmar had a strategy, he doesn’t really think Palmar is Mafia, but he’s going to vote for Palmar just because, he liked the way he attacked DropBear, he acknowledges Palmar wasn’t simply trolling or being a nuisance and that he was analyzing reactions and defenses. Then in the VERY SAME POST, he tells Foolishness to consider that Palmar is scum. When called out by Foolishness, he is very adamant in pointing out he did not accuse Foolishness of being Mafia and drops the topic completely rather than trying to argue his point (which was a giant contradiction anyways). When I asked him to tell me right then and there what he felt about Sevyrn, he said Mafia. The thing is, if he was already so sure in his mind that Sevyrn was Mafia, why was his vote not there? He had been doing his Palmar thing, no new information had come up between the time he voted Palmar and the time he told me he thought Sevyrn was Mafia, besides that his Palmar bit got shot down by Foolishness. Posts this: On August 22 2011 22:28 xtfftc wrote: Nah, I'm just bored of Supersoft. If anyone else has questions for me, I'd gladly answer them. Will gladly answer questions but won’t offer them unprompted by himself. He was very ready and willing to put his vote into Mig when he has never played with Mig before. A large part of the argument against Mig was that he was playing far, far below his usual Town standards; xtfftc does not know this, but he parks the vote there anyways. Note that he said he was suspicious of Rayzor before this but as no real argument had been brought up against him yet (and rather than bringing it up himself) he instead goes with the masses and puts a vote on Mig. A vote I’m convinced he doesn’t actually believe in. This post: On August 22 2011 23:30 xtfftc wrote: I was the first to point the finger at Rayzor, feel free to filter my posts and re-read my arguments against him. Quick to claim credit in case Rayzor flipped Mafia. He was not the first to point the finger at Rayzor, he asked him a question, said he was suspicious, then went and voted Mig. On August 24 2011 08:38 xtfftc wrote: We have 8 votes for Mig and 6 for Hiro. They are followed by DropBear and myself with 2 each. I am leaning towards Hiro at the moment. I can see how his voting pattern might actually make sense for a mafia player. He has taken a stance against pretty much everyone accused, so in a way he has pleased everyone without focusing on a specific target. Also, this: How can a 100% confirmed townie's death be better than a no-lynch? It's not like Hiro's death is going to give us some concrete information. So, ##Vote: hiro protagonist I will check the thread before I go to bed in ~45 minutes and I'll switch to Mig if we are facing the prospect of a no-lynch. What is going on here? I can’t believe I missed this at the time. He thinks Hiro is Mafia, but then look at his reply to Hiro. He calls Hiro a 100% confirmed Townie (I think under the assumption that Hiro’s self vote would show he is a Townie, but then why not try to convince people not to lynch Hiro?), says his death is not going to give any information, but decides to vote him anyways with the addendum that he’s willing to switch to Mig. Which brings us to today, where suddenly xtfftc has lost the resolve to vote for Mig. He is now pursuing Kurumi, despite being confident in voting Mig all of last day. What’s changed? Well for one people have started to link his wagon to Mig’s; he must surely realize that if Mig were to flip Town, he would look terrible. So now he’s campaigning against Kurumi instead of Mig, despite Mig being the “flavor of the day” (note that in past days he had NO PROBLEM voting with the masses, but today no no, don’t touch Mig). Not even a single mention of lynching Mig, instead actually chainsawing Mig’s attackers. I think I’ve exhausted the length of this post, there are many other things I’ve noticed over the course of my re-read but I believe this content is most relevant to the central topic today. Of the two, I definitely find xtfftc more scummy than Mig. However, under the assumption of a scum BrownBear, the situation for Mig looks a lot worse but there is also a possible alternate explanation. Note how BrownBear never addresses the points in Foolishness’s post about why he didn’t try to touch Mig, instead disappearing while allowing the Mig wagon to blow up. There is no attempted distancing from BrownBear. I am completely fine with lynching BrownBear or Mig today, but if Mig were to flip as Town I would say xtfftc is definitely scum. I won’t post an analysis of Mig here as Foolishness has already done a better job than I could. | ||
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The only thing I can't see is both of them being Town since votes probably would've consolidated on one of them in that case, there was no need for scum to try to oppose either one. If both were to be scum though, I don't understand xtfftc avoiding Mig's wagon like the plague today, a red Mig flip would relieve a lot of pressure on him. | ||
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1) He's suspected 2) If Mig were to die and flip Town xtfftc would very likely be turbolynched There are many reasonable explanations for why Mig, if he is Town, was untouched by Mafia. I don't think that should be used as any indication. | ||
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